Game Theory, Byrne
Game Theory, Byrne
=
c
c
96
0
1
) , (
2
2
< =
c
c
t
p p u
p
B A A
A
( , ) 0
2 2 2
B B A A
B A B B
B
p c p p t p c t
u p p p
p t t
c + + + +
= + = =
c
0
1
) , (
2
2
< =
c
c
t
p p u
p
B A B
B
( , ) ( , ) 0
A A B B A B A B
A B
u p p u p p p p c t
p p
c c
= = = = +
c c
The per unit transportation cost t is a constant in the model,
so the 2
nd
partials are both negative and constant, implying
a global maximum for each player, which both confirms a
Nash equilibrium at t c p p
B A
+ = = and rules out any other
pure strategy Nash equilibrium and equilibria where only
one player mixes. Identifying or ruling out equilibria
where both players mix takes more work, with an emphasis
on analysis rather than game theory and would thus b e a
distraction in the context of this course. For this course it is
important to remember that the possibility of mixed
equilibrium may exist and that also to consider what a
mixed equilibrium in the model would mean. It is not
consistent with the situation being modeled that firms
would actually vary the price throughout the day. One
interpretation could be Harsanyis concept that a mixed
strategy represents one belief about what the other is
charging, but that would require addition assumptions
about lack of information between the two players at the
time of price setting. Perhaps the best interpretation would
be that the stores sell multiple products and compete by
setting some prices low to attract market share and increase
97
their profit by setting prices high on other goods. Indeed,
this is common practice among retail stores. Modeling this
last interpretation would probably involve a cost variable
and demand distribution for each product, as well. These
main point at this stage is to forever keep in mind the map
between the model the real-world situation being modeled
and think about how each model assumption should be
interpreted and also how variations in either the application
or the model would be reflected in the other.
One set of variations easily possible with the basic model
presented is to explore model sensitivities by varying the
production costs between the two firms and varying the
magnitude of the production costs relative to the
transportation costs. These excursions are explored in the
exercises.
1.21 Hide and Seek (a.k.a. search and
destroy)
This game models a submarine S hiding from a destroyer D
in a narrow stretch of water, modeled as an interval [a,b],
e.g. [0,10]. The submarine chooses a hiding location x e
[0,10] and the destroyer chooses a location y e [0,10] to
drop depth charges. It can be modeled as a zero sum game
with payoffs
50 ) (
2
= y x u
S
2
) ( 50 y x u
D
=
One can check this with derivatives, but it is clear from
inspection that the subs best response is to maximize its
distance from the destroyer, i.e., choose the farthest
endpoint, and the destroyers best response is to minimize
the distance, i.e. choose x = y. Therefore, there is no Nash
98
equilibrium in which both players are using pure strategies.
If the destroyer chooses the midpoint y = 5, the sub has two
best responses: x = 0 and x = 10. To check for an
equilibrium we look for a strategy x = (x
0
,x
10
) for the sub
that mixes the two endpoints x = 0 and x = 10 such that y =
5 is a best response for the destroyer. When the sub uses x
= (x
0
,x
10
) the destroyers payoff becomes
) ) 10 ( 50 ( ) 50 ( ) , (
2
10
2
0
y x y x y x u
D
+ =
Substituting x
10
= 1 x
0
and collecting like terms yields
2
0
2
0
) 20 100 )( 1 ( 50 ) , ( y y x y x y x u
D
+ + =
0 0
10 10 0 ) 10 10 ( 2 ) , ( x y y x y x u
y
D
= = + + =
c
c
It follows that y = 5 is a best response for the destroyer if
the submarine chooses
2
1
0
= x , that is, hides at either end
point with probability
2
1
, and this strategy profile is a Nash
equilibrium.
1.22 Games of Timing
Duals, Market Preemption, and War of Attrition are all
games of timing and thus have continuous strategy spaces.
That is, each player chooses a time for action. In a duel the
players choose when to shoot, in Market Preemption they
choose when to release a new product and in War of
Attrition they choose when to give up.
i. Duel
99
ii. Market Preemption
iii. War of Attrition
1.23 A Simple Voting Game
1.24 Auctions
i. 1
st
Price Auction
ii. 2
nd
Price Auction
100
5 Repeated Games and Adaptive
Learning
1.25 Backward Induction
i. Chain Store Paradox
1.26 Infinitely Repeated Games and
Discount Factor
i. Folk Theorems
1.27 Repeated Prisoners Dilemma
i. Axelrods tournaments
1.28 Adaptive and Reinforcement
Learning
i. Browns Method of Fictitious Play
ii. Local Interaction Models and
Imitation
(Cascades)
1. Prisoners Dilemma
(Sigmund, Byrne)
2. Adoption of Technology
(Chatterjee, Krishna)
101
6 Cooperative Game Theory
Cooperative game theory differs from non-cooperative
theory in the assumptions that players
i) communicate,
ii) coordinate their strategies, and
iii) reallocate the payoffs,
iv) make binding agreements,
The communication of assumption (i) is necessary to
support assumptions (ii) and (iii). In addition, assumption
(iv) that agreements are binding allows enforcement issues
to be ignored.
1.29 Coalitions and Joint Strategies
A set of players is called a coalition. A joint strategy is a
mixed strategy for a given set of players. Assumption (ii)
provides a mechanism for players to carry out their
agreements and leads to the following definition: A joint
strategy for a set of any k players is a probability
distribution on a set of k-tuples (s
1
,,s
k
) where s
j
is a pure
strategy for the j
th
player in the set. Any subset of players
can be regarded as a coalition, so joint strategies are mixed
strategies for coalitions. For technical reasons to be
addressed in what follows, the empty set is regarded as a
coalition, so if N = {1,,n} is the set of all players then the
power set of N, c(N), is the set of coalitions. The coalition
of all players is called the grand coalition.
Assumption (iv) enables us to focus on what can be gained
from coalition formation, rather than what can go wrong,
the theory should one day deal with the latter, as well.
102
Players can now act in coalitions to maximize payoffs to
their coalition, even at a reduction to their personal payoff
in the original game, because they have a binding
agreement to get a different payoff when the coalitions
payoffs from the original game are pooled and reallocated.
1.30 Imputations
Because of these assumptions, the focus of the analysis
shifts from what payoffs players can get alone in the
original game to what payoffs players are likely to get after
reallocation, which depends on what the different coalitions
can get using joint strategies. These reallocations are called
imputations, and their definition embodies two more
assumptions of cooperative game theory.
Definition: An imputation for an n-player game is an
element x e R
n
. such that
v) individual rationality: no player settles for less
than he or she could guarantee without any
cooperation from any other players, and
vi) collective rationality: the grand coalition always
forms and acts to maximize the aggregate
payoff available for reallocation.
The set of all possible imputations could be allowed to vary
through all of R
n
, but the two additional assumptions are
intended to focus the analysis. Assumption (iv) rules out
martyrdom, but this is consistent with the general nature of
traditional game theory, namely a focus on what strategic
opportunities for optimizing players exist in each game, not
a focus on players will actually play given the complex
realities of actual human decision making. Assumption (v)
probably holds in the real world in far more occurrences
103
than assumption (vi). Readers are encouraged to imagine
how various outcomes might likely differ without
assumption (vi). It is somewhat analogous to the subgame
perfection criterion for Nash equilibria in non-cooperative
games: would a player who fails to negotiate his or her
desired share of the aggregate payoff follow through on a
threat to play so as to reduce the aggregate even though it
means getting a personal payoff which is reduced even
further? Experimental evidence on the ultimatum game
suggests the answer is yes. This text will focus on
presenting the conventional theory as a baseline for such
excursions, so assumptions (v) and (vi) will be enforced in
what follows.
1.31 Characteristic Functions and
Superadditivity
The idea of rationality embodied in (v) is the notion that
people will not settle for less than they can guarantee
themselves. This idea is generalized to coalitions of any
size by the characteristic function. The characteristic
function maps the set of coalitions into the real numbers by
assigning to each coalition the maximum aggregate payoff
that the coalition can guarantee itself without cooperation
from players outside the coalition. Formally,
v:c(N)R.
For any non-empty proper subset S of N,
v(S) = V
where V is the value of the value of the two-player zero-
sum game between S and S
c
based on the aggregate payoff
to S, where S
c
= N S is the complement of S in N. S
c
is
called the counter-coalition. The characteristic value of the
104
grand coalition N is simply the maximum aggregate payoff
in the game, because there are no players in the counter
coalition. The characteristic value of the empty coalition is
set to 0.
The characteristic function value is not the same as the best
paying Nash equilibrium in the two-player general-sum
game based on the aggregate payoffs to both the coalition
and the counter-coalition. In computing the maximum
guarantee to S, the assumption is made that the counter-
coalition is conspiring to minimize the payoff to S, not
conspiring to maximize its own payoff. Therefore, the
aggregate payoff to S
c
arising in the original game is
ignored when computing the characteristic value of S and
instead a zero-sum game is created based on the payoffs to
S. This methodology truly finds the maximum guarantee to
S, because a guarantee is actually the worst case scenario
and assuming every player outside of S conspires to
minimize the payoff to S is indeed the worst case scenario.
This assumption is not made throughout the cooperative
theory it is specifically made to compute the
characteristic function. The characteristic function is
naturally relevant to bargaining positions, as will be seen in
what follows. The example below illustrates computation
of the characteristic function from a strategic form game
(Figures 6.1 6.7).
105
Figure 1.39Strategic Form Cooperative Game
In a 3-player game (Figure 6.1), the possible coalitions are
C, {1}, {2}, {3}, {1,2}, {1,3}, {2,3}, {1,2,3}. The
characteristic function value for the coalition {2,3} is the
value of the zero sum game between {2,3} and {1}, with
payoffs of the coalition {2,3}. The joint pure strategies are
CE, DE, CF, DF for {2,3} and A,B for {1}. For each joint
strategy profile in the 2-player game, the payoffs for the
corresponding 3-player strategy profile in the original game
are summed over players 2 and 3 (Figures 6.2, 6.3).
0,-5,-7 -2,1,3
B
-2,2,2 2,-1,-3
B
0,4,4 4,-2,-1
A
1,-3,-1 -1,3,2
A
D C D C
F E
0,-5,-7 -2,1,3
B
-2,2,2 2,-1,-3
B
0,4,4 4,-2,-1
A
1,-3,-1 -1,3,2
A
D C D C
F E
106
Figure 1.40Two-Player Zero-Sum Game Determining v({2,3})
Figure 1.41Graphical Solution for v({2,3})
The characteristic value for the singleton coalition {1} is
computed from the two player zero-sum game between the
same two coalitions, but the roles of S and S
c
are switched
-12 8 DF
4 -3 CF
4 -4 DE
-4 5 CE
B A
Zero-Sum Game
{23} vs. {1}
-12 8 DF
4 -3 CF
4 -4 DE
-4 5 CE
B A
Zero-Sum Game
{23} vs. {1}
y
2
=0 y
2
=1
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
minmax = 1/2 at y = (1/2,1/2)
-12
y
2
=0 y
2
=1
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
minmax = 1/2 at y = (1/2,1/2)
-12
107
so for each joint strategy profile the payoffs are for the
coalition {1}, i.e., player 1 (Figures 6.4,6.5).
Figure 1.42Two-Player Zero-Sum Game Determining v({1})
Figure 1.43Graphical Solution for v({1})
The characteristic values for all the coalitions are found in
the same way for each coalition S, as the value of the
two-player zero-sum game between S and S
c
,
with the
exception of v(C) and v({1,2,3}). The grand coalition is
0 -2 -2 2 B
0 4 1 -1 A
DF CF DE CE
Zero-Sum Game {1} vs. {23}
0 -2 -2 2 B
0 4 1 -1 A
DF CF DE CE
Zero-Sum Game {1} vs. {23}
x
2
=0 x
2
=1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
maxmin = 0 at (2/3,1/3)
x
2
=0 x
2
=1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
maxmin = 0 at (2/3,1/3)
108
{1,2,3}, so v({1,2,3}) = 8, and, as in every game, v(C) = 0.
The game of 6.1 is shown again with all derived zero-sum
games for cross-reference (Figure 6.6), after which the
complete characteristic function is given (Figure 6.7).
Figure 1.44Zero-Sum Games Yielding Characteristic Values
-7 1 BF
4 3 AF
0 -1 BE
0 1 AE
D C
Zero-Sum Game
{13} vs. {2}
-7 1 BF
4 3 AF
0 -1 BE
0 1 AE
D C
Zero-Sum Game
{13} vs. {2}
-5 4 2 -3 D
1 -2 -1 3 C
BF AF BE AE
Zero-Sum Game {2} vs. {13}
-5 4 2 -3 D
1 -2 -1 3 C
BF AF BE AE
Zero-Sum Game {2} vs. {13}
-7 3 4 -1 F
2 -3 -1 2 E
BD BC AD AC
Zero-Sum Game {3} vs. {12}
-7 3 4 -1 F
2 -3 -1 2 E
BD BC AD AC
Zero-Sum Game {3} vs. {12}
-5 0 BD
-1 1 BC
4 -2 AD
2 2 AC
F E
Zero-Sum Game
{12} vs. {3}
-5 0 BD
-1 1 BC
4 -2 AD
2 2 AC
F E
Zero-Sum Game
{12} vs. {3}
0,-5,-7 -2,1,3 B -2,2,2 2,-1,-3 B
0,4,4 4,-2,-1 A 1,-3,-1 -1,3,2 A
D C D C
F E
0,-5,-7 -2,1,3 B -2,2,2 2,-1,-3 B
0,4,4 4,-2,-1 A 1,-3,-1 -1,3,2 A
D C D C
F E
-12 8 DF
4 -3 CF
4 -4 DE
-4 5 CE
B A
Zero-Sum Game
{23} vs. {1}
-12 8 DF
4 -3 CF
4 -4 DE
-4 5 CE
B A
Zero-Sum Game
{23} vs. {1}
0 -2 -2 2 B
0 4 1 -1 A
DF CF DE CE
Zero-Sum Game {1} vs. {23}
0 -2 -2 2 B
0 4 1 -1 A
DF CF DE CE
Zero-Sum Game {1} vs. {23}
109
Figure 1.45Characteristic Values from Figure 6.1/6.6 Game
i. Exercises
1. Compute the characteristic
function for the given game.
8 {1,2,3}
1/2 {2,3}
3 {1,3}
2 {1,2}
1 {3}
1/2 {2}
0 {1}
0
v S
8 {1,2,3}
1/2 {2,3}
3 {1,3}
2 {1,2}
1 {3}
1/2 {2}
0 {1}
0
v S
-1,0,-1 -1,-4,10
B
2,-1,0 -4,1,2
B
6,8,-4 -1,1,2
A
-2,1,1 3,-1,0
A
D C D C
F E
-1,0,-1 -1,-4,10
B
2,-1,0 -4,1,2
B
6,8,-4 -1,1,2
A
-2,1,1 3,-1,0
A
D C D C
F E
110
An important property of the characteristic function
computed from any game in this way is that when any
number of players and/or small coalitions get together to
form a larger coalition, the aggregate guaranteed payoff
never decreases. That is, people can always do as well or
better in a group than as individuals and better in a large
group than in multiple small groups. This property is
called superadditivity.
Definition: Let N = {1,,n} and v:c(N) R.
Superadditivity is the property that S,T e c(N) S T
= C, v(S T) v(S) + v(T).
Superadditivity extends to any finite collection of coalitions
by induction. In particular, v(N) Ev(i) for every game.
1.32 Characteristic Function Form
Games
Definition: Let N = {1,,n} and v:c(N) R satisfy
superadditivity and n(C) = 0. Then v is a characteristic
function form game.
The significance of this last definition is that one need not
start with a strategic form game to have a characteristic
function. Just as the derivation of the strategic form from
the extensive form led to the creation of strategic form
games as a starting point for analysis, so does the
derivation of characteristic function form games lead to the
analysis of characteristic functions that are created directly
from a verbal description of a game or even created purely
as numerical examples without any associated story. Any
function satisfying the definition may be regarded as a
cooperative game, i.e., bargaining situation.
111
The characteristic function enables a more concise
statement of the definition of an imputation.
Definition: An imputation for a characteristic function
form game is an element x e R
n
. such that
i) x
i
> v(i) (individual rationality), and
ii) Ex
i
= v(N) (collective rationality)
Corollary: The set of all imputations is convex. (It is the
intersection of finitely many half-planes defined by a
system of linear inequalities.)
1.33 Essential and Inessential Games
If v(N) = Ev(i), then v(S) =
eS i
i) ( v for every intermediate
coalition S _ N, because any gains by a single coalition
would be preserved by superadditivity in larger coalitions.
Recall that every imputation needs must be both
individually and collectively rational, so if v(N) = Ev(i)
then there is only one payoff vector that qualifies as an
imputation: (v(1), v(2), , v(n) ). This observation
motivates the classification of inessential games.
Definition: If v:c(N) R is a characteristic function, v is
called inessential if v(N) = Ev(i). v is called essential if v
is not inessential.
Inessential games are uninteresting to analyze from the
perspective of cooperative game theory, because the focus
of cooperative game theory is on how the structure of the
payoff function affects the dynamics of the bargaining
process in particular, what imputations are more or less
likely to result as outcomes. There is absolutely no
incentive for anyone to form a coalition in an inessential
112
game because the players can do exactly as well playing the
same game as a non-cooperative game with no pre-game
communication or binding agreements. While inessential
games are not interesting to analyze from a cooperative
point of view, their existence is very interesting. That is,
the fact that in some games there truly is no value added to
collaboration or communication of any kind. An important
class of inessential games is that of Two-Person Zero-Sum
games. As noted in chapter 3, these games are called
strictly competitive because there is never an advantage to
cooperation.
1.34 Dominance, Coalitional
Rationality, and the Core
The characteristic function captures information on the
strategic position of coalitions in the bargaining process,
from individuals all the way up to the grand coalition. The
concept of dominance of imputations formalizes one way in
which the characteristic function can bear on negotiations.
Definition: Given a characteristic function form game v,
imputations x and y, and a coalition S, x dominates y
through S, written
y x
S
if
(i) x
i
> y
i
i e S,
(ii)
( )
e
s
S i
i
S x v
The first condition states that the members of S all prefer x
to y. The second condition states that the members of S
have the ability to guarantee the portion of x that pertains to
113
them, that is, x
i
for i e S. Together, these conditions
indicate that in some sense y is not a likely outcome of the
pre-game bargaining process because the members of S
could discover x and reject y in favor of x. This reasoning
is valid, but there is a problem with some games in that an
imputation x could be dominated by an imputation y which
is dominated by another imputation z which in turn
dominates x (see example 6.4.1 below.)
Example 6.4.1.
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
2
3
, 2 ,
2
3
4
7
,
4
9
, 1 2 ,
4
7
,
4
5
2
3
, 2 ,
2
3
23 13 12
In other words, domination through a coalition is not even a
partial order of imputations, let alone a total order.
Dominance should be thought of as capturing a critical
aspect of the bargaining process, but it still does not
guarantee a neat prediction of the outcome because the
underlying structure of the game could admit many
outcomes that are not dominated through any coalition (and
thus dominance cannot rank them) or could admit no
imputations that are not dominated and thus any outcome is
in some sense unstable.
5 123
4 23
4 13
4 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
v s
5 123
4 23
4 13
4 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
v s
114
Definition: The core of a game in characteristic function
form is set of all imputations that cannot be dominated
through any coalition.
The core can be empty or can be the entire set of
imputations or can be a subset of imputations of any
dimension. The fully understand the core it is instructive to
observe the relationship between a coalitions payoffs and
the coalitions characteristic function value. Given an
imputation y, consider a coalition S and suppose
( )
e
>
S i
i
S y v . Then, no imputation y can dominate x
through S because if condition (i) of the definition of
domination does not fail, i.e., x
i
> y
i
i e S, then
e
>
S i
i
x
( )
e
>
S i
i
S y v so condition (ii) fails. Conversely, if
( )
e
<
S i
i
S y v , then setting x
i
= y
i
+ (v(S)
eS i
i
y ) / |S|
satisfies (i) and (ii) and satisfies x
i
> v(i) for i eS because x
i
> y
i
> v(i). If x
i
> v(i) for i e S and
eS i
i
x =
eS i
i
y (v(S)
eS i
i
y ) then
=
n
i
i
x
1
= v(N) which is required for x to be an
imputation. In other words, in order to account for the
increase of v(S )
eS i
i
y > 0 allocated evenly among i e S,
it is necessary to allocate a decrease of v(S )
eS i
i
y among
the players i e S. The allocation of the increase across S
need not be even, but must be positive for all i e S. The
allocation of the decrease across S
c
need not be even and is
not required to affect all players. For example, one player
could suffer the entire reduction. Because y
i
> v(i) is
115
required i, it might be impossible to reduce some players
payoffs. These complications preclude specifying a general
formula for allocating the reduction to S
c
that always
works, but some allocation is always possible, because
eS i
i
x = v(N) v(S) v(S
c
) >
eS i
i) ( v by superadditivity.
The result of this derivation can be summarized by the
following
Theorem: An imputation y can be dominated by some
imputation x through a coalition S if and only if
eS i
i
y <
v(S).
Corollary: An imputation y is in the core of a characteristic
function form game v if and only if
eS i
i
y v(S) Se
c(N).
Corollary: The core of a game in characteristic function
form is convex. (Like the set of all imputations, the core is
the intersection of finitely many half-planes defined by a
system of linear inequalities.)
The examples that follow show that the core can be empty
or can be the whole set of imputations or can be any
dimension in between.
i. Example of an Empty Core
ii. Example of an All Encompassing
Core
3 123
5/2 23
2 13
2 12
1 3
- 2 2
- 1 1
0
v s
3 123
5/2 23
2 13
2 12
1 3
- 2 2
- 1 1
0
v s ) ( S x
S i
i
v >
e
x
1
? 1
x
2
? 2
x
3
? 1 x
1
+ x
2
? 2
x
1
+ x
2
? 2
x
1
+ x
3
? 2 x
2
? 1
x
2
+ x
3
? 5/2 x
1
? 1/2
Core = C
3 123
0 23
0 13
0 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
v s
3 123
0 23
0 13
0 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
v s
x
1
? 0
x
2
? 0
x
3
? 0 x
1
+ x
2
? 3
x
1
+ x
2
? 0
x
1
+ x
3
? 0 x
2
? 3
x
2
+ x
3
? 0 x
1
? 3
Core = all imputations
) (S x
S i
i
v >
e
116
iii. Example of a 0-dimensional Core
Core in red = { (1,1,1) } Core in red = { (1,1,1) }
3 123
2 23
2 13
2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s
3 123
2 23
2 13
2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s ) (S x
S i
i
v >
e
x
1 s 1
x
2 s
s
s
2
x
3
? 1 x
1
+ x
2
? 2
x
1
+ x
2
? 2
x
1
+ x
3
? 2 x
2
? 1
x
2
+ x
3
? 2 x
1
? 1
117
iv. Example of a 1-dimensional Core
3 123
4/3 23
5/4 13
2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s
3 123
4/3 23
5/4 13
2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s
x
1
1
x
2
2
x
3
1 x
1
+ x
2
2
x
1
+ x
2
2
x
1
+ x
3
x
2
7/4
x
2
+ x
3
2 x
1
5/3
Core in red
) (S x
S i
i
v >
e
118
v. Example of a Non-Trivial 2-
dimensional Core
3 123
2 23
2 13
3/2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s
3 123
2 23
2 13
3/2 12
1 3
-2 2
-1 1
0
v s
x
1
1
x
2
2
x
3
1 x
1
+ x
2
2
x
1
+ x
2
3/2
x
1
+ x
3
2 x
2
1
x
2
+ x
3
2 x
1
1
Core: in red
) (S x
S i
i
v >
e
119
1.35 Strategic Equivalence and
Normalization
Strategic equivalence is motivated by the idea that if the
payoff units are changed from dollars to yen to euros, the
strategic essence of the game should be unchanged.
Likewise, if each player i receives a constant side payment
c
i
regardless of what imputation players finally results, then
these payments should not affect the strategic essence of
the game, precisely because the players receive the same
amount no matter how the game is played including what
negotiations lead to what imputation.
Definition: If v and are characteristic functions, is said
to be strategically equivalent to v if - k > 0 and c
1
,,c
n
such that
e
+ =
S i
i
c S k S ) ( ) ( v .
The positive constant k represents a change of units, and
must therefore be positive. A negative change would
naturally reverse the incentives and a zero constant would
nullify all incentives. The constants c
i
represent the side
payments to each player that are independent of what
imputation results and these constants can be positive,
negative or zero.
If
e
+ =
S i
i
c S k S ) ( ) ( v then
e
+ =
S i
i
k
c
S
k
S ) (
1
) ( v . k >
0 0
1
>
k
so n is strategically equivalent to m. That is,
strategic equivalence is a symmetric relation. Taking k = 1
and c
i
= 0 i shows that strategic equivalence is also a
reflexive relation. The verification that strategic
equivalence is a transitive relation is left as an exercise.
Combined, these three properties establish strategic
120
equivalence as a true equivalence relation in the standard
mathematical sense of a reflexive, symmetric and transitive
relation.
Proposition 6.7.1: Suppose v and are strategically
equivalent, and suppose y x
S
under v. If x
i
= kx
i
+ c
i
and y
i
= ky
i
+ c
i
, i = 1,n, then ' ' y x
S
under . That is,
equivalence preserves dominance of imputations. The
proof is left as an exercise.
Corollary 6.7.2: Strategic equivalence preserves the
dimensionality of the core of a characteristic form game.
Proof: strategic equivalence induces a 1 to 1 map
between cores.
Proposition 6.7.3: Every essential characteristic function
form game v is strategically equivalent to exactly one game
satisfying (i) = 0 i and (N) = 1. Proof: Let
=
) ( ) (
1
k
i N v v
and c
i
= kv(i) and (S) = kv(S) +
eS i
i
c . Then k > 0 because v is essential and (i) = 0 and
(N) = 1.
Definition: For any essential game, the strategically
equivalent game known to exist by proposition 6.7.3 is
called the (0,1)reduced form of the game and is also
referred to as the zeroone normalization of the game. The
expressions normalize the game and put the game in (0,1)
reduced form are synonymous.
The (0,1)reduced form is useful for determining whether
two arbitrary characteristic functions are strategically
equivalent. Rather than solving for the constants k and c
i
121
on a case by case basis, each function can quickly be
normalized and the (0,1)reduced forms compared.
Proposition 6.7.4. If v and are strategically equivalent
games in (0,1)reduced form, then v = . Proof: kv(i) =
(i) + c
i
c
i
= 0 i . c
i
= 0 i k = 1.
The (0,1)reduced form is useful for characterizing classes
of games because only one representative of each class
need be analyzed. Strategic equivalence allows one to
think of all characteristic function form games as existing
in the first quadrant of R
n
. That is, if any game exists
possessing a given set of strategic properties, such a game
exists in the first quadrant.
i. Example of Normalizing a Game
The results of normalizing a game focus attention on
relative values rather than absolute values. In the example
6.7.1, v({1,2}) < v({1,3}), but in the normalized game,
({1,2}) > ({1,3}). The normalized characteristic value
of each coalition is the value added of forming the
coalition as a fraction of the total value added of forming
5 123
2 23
5 13
3 12
0 3
-5 2
3 1
0
v s
5 123
2 23
5 13
3 12
0 3
-5 2
3 1
0
v s
(12) = kv(12) + c
1
+ c
2
= 3/7 3/7 + 5/7 = 5/7
(13) = kv(13) + c
1
+ c
3
= 5/7 3/7 + 0 = 2/7
(23) = kv(23) + c
2
+ c
3
= 2/7 + 5/7 + 0 = 1
c
1
= kv(1) = 3/7
c
2
= kv(2) = 5/7
c
3
= kv(3) = 0
7 / 1
) 0 5 3 ( 5
1
) ( ) (
1
=
+
=
i N
k
v v
1 123
1 23
2/7 13
5/7 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
s
1 123
1 23
2/7 13
5/7 12
0 3
0 2
0 1
0
s
122
the grand coalition: v({1,2}) (v({1}) + v({2})) = 3 (2)
= 5 (out of 7), whereas v({1,3}) (v({1}) + v({3})) = 5
(3) = 2 (out of 7). Another surprising feature of the
normalized game is that ({2,3}) = 1 = ({1,2,3}). That is,
the coalition appears to be capable of garnering the entire
aggregate payoff for itself, whereas in the original game,
player 1 appears to command 60% of the aggregate payoff.
This, again, is because by normalizing the individually
rational payoffs to zero, the (0,1)reduced characteristic
function illuminates the relative value added that can be
gained through coalition formation. Because v({1,2,3}) = 5
and v({1}) = 3, there is only an extra value added of 2
above what player is guaranteed to get alone, and the
normalized characteristic function tells us that players 2
and 3 can get all the value added that the grand coalition
makes possible without the help of player 1. This an
important observation that is not obvious in the original
game but is highlighted by normalizing the game.
Exercise. Normalize examples 6.6.1 6.6.5, graph each
normalized core, and compares to graphs of 6.6.1 6.6.5.
1.36 Shapley Values
The core is one solution concept for cooperative games.
Shapley values, named for Lloyd Shapley, their creator, are
a different type of solution concept for cooperative games.
The vector of Shapley values, called the Shapley vector, is
an imputation. A players Shapley value can also be
thought of as an index of power: the greater the Shapley
value, the more bargaining power the player has.
Shapley values are based on each players value added
when joining a coalition, defined as
123
A
i
= v( S {i} ) v(S)
When player i joins coalition S, the amount of aggregate
payoff the new coalition can command is increased by A
i
.
If the assumption that the grand coalition always forms is
refined to specify an order in which each joins, then A
i
can
be computed for each player, taking for S the sub coalition
already formed before they join. For example, if the order
in which the grand coalition forms is player 2, followed by
player 3, followed by player 1, then
A
2
= v( C {2} ) v(C) = v({2}) 0 = v({2})
A
3
= v( {2} {3} ) v(2) = v({2,3}) v({2})
A
1
= v( {2,3} {1} ) v({2,3}) = v({1,2,3}) v({2,3})
If the order is 1, followed by 2, followed by 3, then
A
1
= v( C {1} ) v(C) = v({1}) 0 = v({1})
A
2
= v( {1} {2} ) v(1) = v({1,2}) v({1})
A
3
= v( {1,2} {3} ) v({1,2}) = v({1,2,3}) v({1,2})
Because the value of A
i
depends on the order in which the
grand coalition is assumed to form, the Shapley value
averages each A
i
over all possible orders. Each order is a
permutation of the set of players, i.e. each order is an
element p e S
n
, the set of permutations on n elements. If A
i
is written explicitly as a function of the ordering p, that is,
A
i
: S
n
R, then the i
th
players Shapley value, |(i), can be
written as
|(i) =
( )
e
A
n
S p
i
n
p
S
1
124
i. Example of Shapley Value
Computation
The tables below show the data for
computing the Shapley values for the
given characteristic function that come
from each permutation of the players.
The first table contains redundant
information to present one example in
extreme detail, after which the 2nd and
3rd rows are omitted from the tables for
the remaining permutations. The
coalition S i in each column of the first
table is the coalition S from the preceding
column. Color coding associates the data
for each player.
2 -3 0 v(S i)
{12} {1} Coalition S i before i joins
2 5 -3 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -3 v(S)
{123} {12} {1} Coalition S after i joins
3 2 1 Players in order
2 -3 0 v(S i)
{12} {1} Coalition S i before i joins
2 5 -3 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -3 v(S)
{123} {12} {1} Coalition S after i joins
3 2 1 Players in order
3 4 -3 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 1 -3 v(S)
{123} {13} {1} Coalition S after i joins
2 3 1 Players in order
3 4 -3 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 1 -3 v(S)
{123} {13} {1} Coalition S after i joins
2 3 1 Players in order
2 3 -1 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -1 v(S)
{123} {12} {2} Coalition S after i joins
3 1 2 Players in order
2 3 -1 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -1 v(S)
{123} {12} {2} Coalition S after i joins
3 1 2 Players in order
4 123
2 23
1 13
2 12
0 3
-1 2
-3 1
0
v s
4 123
2 23
1 13
2 12
0 3
-1 2
-3 1
0
v s
125
Proposition: The Shapley vector is always an imputation.
Proof: The set of all imputations for a game is a convex
set, so it suffices to show that the Shapley vector is a
weighted average of imputations; that is, that for each p e
S
n
, (A
1
(p), ,A
n
(p)) is an imputation. A
i
(p)= v( S {i} )
v(S), where S depends on p. Superadditivity implies
v(S{i}) v(S) + v({i}), which implies A
i
(p) = v(S{i})
v(S) v({i}) so individual rationality holds. Furthermore,
given any p = {i
1
,,i
n
}, EA
i
(p) = v({i
1
}) + v({i
1
,i
2
})
v({i
1
}) + v({i
1
,i
2
,i
3
}) v({i
1
,i
2
}) + + v({i
1
,,i
n
})
v({i
1
,,i
n1
}) = v({i
1
}) v({i
1
}) + v({i
1
,i
2
}) v({i
1
,i
2
}) +
+ v({i
1
,,i
n1
}) v({i
1
,,i
n1
}) + v({i
1
,,i
n
}) =
v({i
1
,,i
n
}), so collective rationality holds. Therefore,
A
i
(p) is an imputation p and it follows that (|(1),,|(n))
is an imputation.
2 3 -1 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -1 v(S)
{123} {23} {2} Coalition S after i joins
1 3 2 Players in order
2 3 -1 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 -1 v(S)
{123} {23} {2} Coalition S after i joins
1 3 2 Players in order
2 2 0 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 0 v(S)
{123} {23} {3} Coalition S after i joins
1 2 3 Players in order
2 2 0 Player is added is v( S ) v( S {i} )
4 2 0 v(S)
{123} {23} {3} Coalition S after i joins
1 2 3 Players in order
[(-3)+(-3)+3+ 2+1+2] / 6 = 2/6 1
[5+3+(-1)+(-1)+ 3+2] / 6 = 11/6 2
[2+4+2+3+0+0] / 6 = 11/6 3
Player is Shapley value = added value averaged over all peruations
[(-3)+(-3)+3+ 2+1+2] / 6 = 2/6 1
[5+3+(-1)+(-1)+ 3+2] / 6 = 11/6 2
[2+4+2+3+0+0] / 6 = 11/6 3
Player is Shapley value = added value averaged over all peruations
126
1.37 Simple Games, Compound Games,
Elections
Elections, legislative bodies and voting situations of many
kinds all have something in common: a coalition can do
nothing until it reaches the critical composition required to
carry the vote, at which point it has all the power it needs
and extra members do not add value. These scenarios
motivate the following definition:
Definition A game in characteristic function form is called
a simple game if
i) v(i) = 0 i
ii) v(N) = 1
iii) v(S) e {0,1}
In simple games, A
i
(p) = v(S{i}) v(S) e {0,1} peS
n
because v(S{i}) v(S) can only evaluate to 0 0, 1 0, or
1 1. The cases when A
i
(p) = 1, player i is the swing
vote, turning a losing coalition into a winning coalition.
Therefore, the Shapley value for each player i can be
computed most efficiently by identifying exactly those
permutations p of the players that make player i the swing
vote. If P
i
_ S
n
denotes the set of these permutations, then
player is Shapley value is |(i) = |P
i
|/n!
Any permutation p = (i
1
,i
k
,i,i
k+2
,,i
n
)e P
i
can be
partitioned into three segments p = (b,i,a), where b =
(i
1
,i
k
) is an ordering of players who join the grand
coalition before i and are a losing coalition until player i
joins, and a = (i
k+2
,,i
n
) is an ordering of players who join
after i. If b is a reordering of b and a is a reordering of a,
then p = (b,i,a)e P
i
as well. Given a representative p =
(b,i,a), the number of permutations of the form p =
127
(b,i,a) is k!(n k 1)! This further simplifies computation
of the Shapley value for player i to the identification of a
set of distinct representatives b of losing coalitions that
become winning when i joins distinct in the sense that
none is a permutation of another. Identifying these
representatives could require some reasoning tailored to the
specifics of the problem, after which the permutations of
each representative can be found by the simple application
of formula. Depending on the specifics of the problem, it
might even be possible to count the number of distinct
representatives b without even listing them all, and thereby
further simplify the computation of |(i).
The following example of a simple game is taken from
Morris.
i. Lake Wobegone Local
Government
Lake Wobegone has a mayor as well as a city council
consisting of 6 aldermen and one chairman.
There are two ways a bill can be passed into law:
1) a majority vote by the council followed by
the signature of the mayor (chairman only
votes in case of a tie)
2) a super-majority vote of 6 council members
will override a veto by the mayor (chairman
always votes in case of veto override)
128
The Shapley values of the aldermen will all be identical, so
there are three Shapley values to compute: that of an
alderman (A), of the chairman (C), and of the mayor (M).
The permutations in which the mayor is the swing vote
have four distinct forms listed below. The number of each
can be counted based on the fact that there are a total of six
alderman from which to choose a subset to precede the
mayor, multiplied by the orderings of each predecessor set
b and successor set a, as discussed above.
The permutations in which the chairman is the swing vote
have two distinct forms listed and counted below.
= 2160
= 2880
= 1440
= 3600
10080
Shapley value = 10080/8!
4A M 2A C
3A C M 3A
5A M A C
4A C M 2A
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
4
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
4
( )
6
4
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
5
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
5
( )
6
5
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
3
x
( )
1
1
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
3
( )
6
3
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
4
x
( )
1
1
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
4
( )
6
4
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
= 1440
= 2880
4320
so Shapley value = 4320/8!
5A C M A
3A M C 3A
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
5
x 5! x 2!
( )
6
5
( )
6
5
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
3
x
( )
1
1
x 4! x 3!
( )
6
3
( )
6
3
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
129
The permutations in which an alderman is the swing vote
have two distinct forms listed and counted below. Notice
that when computing the Shapley value of a fixed
alderman, there are only 5 alderman left from which to
choose the coalition b that comes before the swing vote.
Note that the Shapley values add up to v(N) = 1 as they
must: six alderman and the chairman contribute 7 x 4320
plus the mayor at 10080 sums to 40320 = 8! which is
exactly the denominator.
1.38 Nash Arbitration Solution
The last solution concept to be covered here is the Nash
arbitration solution. It is specifically designed for two-
player games and it is not intended to be a bargaining
model, but truly and arbitration solution that is, a method
for an arbitrator to impose a settlement on two parties who
are at an impasse in negotiation. The arbitrator should be
fair and that is why the players are willing to consent to
arbitration. Nash set out to derive the ideal arbitration
function.
= 1440
= 2160
= 240
= 1200
4320
so Shapley value = 4320/8!
3A M A 2A C
2A C M A 3A
5A A M C
4A C A 2A
x 4! x 3!
( )
5
3
x 4! x 3!
( )
5
3
( )
5
3
x 5! x 2!
( )
5
5
x 5! x 2!
( )
5
5
( )
5
5
x 5! x 2!
( )
5
4
x
( )
1
1
x 5! x 2!
( )
5
4
( )
5
4
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
x 4! x 3!
( )
5
2
x
( )
1
1
x
( )
1
1
x 4! x 3!
( )
5
2
( )
5
2
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
x
( )
1
1
( )
1
1
130
In an arbitration scenario, the assumptions of characteristic
function form games are modified. The assumptions of
communication, collaboration (i.e. joint strategies) are
assumed, but reallocation of payoffs is not. That is, any
payoff pair that is feasible as a joint strategy outcome is a
possible arbitration outcome, but the payoffs will not be
reallocated. The feasible set P for payoff pairs (u,v) is the
full set of feasible joint payoff pairs, i.e. the convex hull of
the pure strategy payoff pairs.
To derive the arbitration outcome, Nash made assumptions
about what properties an ideal arbitration outcome should
have. He denoted the outcome (u*,v*) = +((P,u
0
,v
0)
) to
indicate that the outcome depends on the payoff region and
the status quo point.
1) Feasibility: the arbitration outcome must be
feasible, i.e. (u*,v*) e P
2) Individual Rationality. This assumption is
generalized slightly from the context of
imputations. Nash assumed that the result of
negotiations up to the point of arbitration was that
each player had achieved some status quo payoff,
i.e. a payoff that they will receive if any further
negotiation or arbitration fails. Thus, the
characteristic function values inherent in the
underlying game are replaced by a pair of status quo
payoffs (u
0
, v
0
), so individual rationality means u*
u
0
and v* v
0
.
3) Pareto Optimality: (u*,v*) is Pareto optimal.
Pareto optimal means on the Pareto boundary,
which is the set of feasible (u,v) at which u cannot
increase and stay feasible unless v decreases, and
visa versa.
131
4) Symmetry: If P is symmetric (i.e., (u,v) e P (v,u)
e P), and if u
0
= v
0
, then u* = v*.
5) Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives: If P _
P and (u
0
,v
0
)e P and (u*,v*) e P, then ,
+(P', (u
0
,v
0
)) = (u*,v*)
6) Invariance Under Affine Transformations: If P
is obtained from P by a transformation of the form
u = au + b, v = cv + d where a,c > 0
then
+(P, (au
0
+ b,cv
0
+ d)) = (au* + b, cv* + d).
The first assumption needs no justification and might be
taken for granted if not stated, but Nash based an important
proof on these assumptions so it is important to list them
all. The second is easily defended as common sense and
the third is also intuitively appealing: naturally, each party
would expect the arbitrator to grant any gains that could be
had at no expense to the other party. The fourth
assumption, symmetry, is motivated by fairness.
Independence of irrelevant alternatives is not as obvious as
the earlier assumptions. In essence, it labels the entire
feasible set irrelevant except for the convex hull of the
status quo point (u
0
,v
0
) and the solution point (u*,v*). It
states that if one throws away any subset of the feasible set
to get a smaller set containing the status quo point and the
solution point, then the ideal arbitration function should
return the same solution for the smaller set. This
assumption implies that if you take a larger set instead of a
smaller set, the function + will also return the same point,
so long as a new solution point is not added. Because the
solution is assumed to be Pareto optimal, if the Pareto
132
boundary is not changed then the solution doesnt change.
Finally, Invariance under affine transformations with
positive coefficients. Multiplication by a positive constant
can be taken as a units change, which should not change the
solution. The fact that addition or subtraction of wealth
does not change it is more questionable, especially in light
of utility theory, but this is only mentioned to remind
readers to always question assumptions. Nashs result is
remarkable and even this last assumption is innocuous in
light of the strong result he obtained.
i. Theorem (Nash Arbitration
Solution)
There is a unique function that satisfies assumptions (1)
(6), given by
(u*,v*) = +((P,u
0
,v
0)
) = argmax
(u,v)eP
(u u
0
)(v v
0
)
The proof is deferred to Appendix A.
The variables that are input to a function are also called the
arguments. The argmax of a function is the set of values
for the arguments that maximize the function. For
example, the solution set to a Linear Program is the argmax
(or argmin) of the objective function on the feasible set.
In this case, the function being optimized is not linear.
However, because the function is clearly increasing in both
variables, the maximum always occurs on the Pareto
boundary of the feasible set (as it must in accordance with
the 6 assumptions). The Pareto boundary is always either a
point or a line segment with negative slope negative slope
is the condition that one variable cannot increase without
the other decreasing. On the line segment, the function
133
can be expressed as a function of just one variable and
maximized using standard calculus techniques.
ii. Example of Nash Arbitration
Solution
Find the Nash arbitration outcome for the given game using
individually rational payoffs as the status quo point
(12/5,12/5).
1) Plot the feasible space and identify the Pareto boundary.
2) Write functions to express v as a function of u on the
boundary.
Segment 1: v = 4 u/2
Segment 2: v = 5 u
Segment 3: v = 8 2u
3,2 2,3
0,4 4,0
3,2 2,3
0,4 4,0
Pareto boundary has
three segments.
Feasible set is the
convex hull of the
pure strategy
outcomes
134
4) Maximize f(u,v) = (u 12/5)(v 12/5) over the Pareto
boundary
The max must be found separately on each boundary
segment and then the overall max chosen from the three.
Segment 1: u e [0,2] ; v = 4 u/2
f(u,v) = (u 12/5)(4 u/2 12/5) = u
2
/2 + 14/5 u 96/25
= f(u)
du
u df ) (
= u + 14/5 > 0 on [0,2] so max = 6/25 at u = 2
Segment 2: u e [2,3] ; v = 5 u
f(u,v) = (u 12/5)(5 u 12/5) = u2 + 5 u 156/25 =
f(u)
du
u df ) (
= 2u + 5 = 0 at u = 5/2 and
2
2
) (
du
u f d
= 2 so max =
1/100 at u = 5/2
Segment 3: u e [3,4] ; v = 8 2u
f(u,v) = (u 12/5)(8 2u 12/5) = 2u2 + 52/5 u 336/25
= f(u)
du
u df ) (
= 4u + 52/5 < 0 on [3,4] so max = 6/25 at u = 3
The overall max = 1/100 at u = 5/2 and v = 5 u = 5/2 so
the Nash arbitration solution is (5/2,5/2).
iii. Shapley Procedure
As mentioned above, when Nash created his arbitration
solution he assumed that the negotiation had been going on
for some time and had reached an impasse, thus requiring
135
arbitration. The status quo point was the result of this
preceding negotiation process for which no particular
method was specified, so the status quo point was simply
an exogenous input, and could be any feasible point.
Lloyd Shapley suggested taking as the status quo point the
characteristic function values, i.e., the maximin values
derived from the original game. This has become known as
the Shapley procedure to find the Nash arbitration
solution using the characteristic function values of the two
players as the status quo point.
iv. Exercises
6.10.3.1 Find the Nash arbitration solution for the given
game, using u
0
= 21/6 and v
0
= 25/6 as the status quo
values.
4,4 3,5
1,5 6,0
4,4 3,5
1,5 6,0
136
7 Evolutionary Game Models
In evolutionary game models, a strategic form game,
referred to as the generation game
5
, is used to model a
fitness competition, such as hunting, mate selecting, or
possibly more abstract choices. The idea is that payoffs
are in Darwinian fitness units. Pure strategies model
genotypes, usually called types or sometimes pure types to
emphasize the representation by pure strategies. Mixed
strategies model heterogeneous populations comprised of
multiple types many individuals of each type. Multiple
generations are modeled as successive plays of the
generation game, starting with an initial population (i.e.
mixed strategy). In each generation t, the payoff is
computed for each pure strategy type paired with a co-
player that uses the mixed strategy representing the
population in generation t. A new mixed strategy is
computed to represent the population in the next generation
t+1, and types increase or decrease as a fraction of the new
population according to how their payoffs compared given
the population in generation t. The cycle then repeats to
compute the population for generation t+2 and so on.
Payoffs are only computed for each type, rather than each
individual, implicitly assuming that all players of a given
type each score the same payoff. Assigning to each type
the payoff of its pure strategy, when matched with a co-
player that uses the mixed strategy representing the
population, models each individual playing the game many,
many times throughout its lifetime (i.e., one generation),
facing co-players randomly selected from the population.
5
or sometimes the period game or stage game in the language of
generic dynamic or multi-stage games
137
The law of large numbers
6
loosely implies
7
that the
lifetime history of co-players for each individual will
resemble, on average, the mixed strategy representing the
population. Thus, the average lifetime payoff will be
approximately the payoff when a single co-player uses the
mixed strategy. In the model, the qualifier is dropped and
each player of a given type scores exactly the payoff of the
pure strategy representing the type, given the population
mixed strategy by the co-player. A constant base fitness
term is added to all payoffs, independent of type. This
parameter provides a control to calibrate the importance of
the game to the overall fitness of the types. High base
fitness makes the game payoff relatively unimportant and
low base fitness makes fitness highly sensitive to the game
payoff. If the generation game allows any zero or negative
payoffs, base fitness must be at least large enough to ensure
positive payoffs to all types for technical reasons discussed
later.
An implicit assumption in this modeling paradigm is that
any fractional distribution of types in the population is
feasible, which is actually only true for infinite populations
and even then only rational fractions would be feasible; e.g.
not (1/t, 11/t). Modeling finite populations with
probability distributions on types avoids the complications
of a finite system such as how do you have a fractional
number of offspring. In its most basic form the model
ignores mating by assuming that types pass their exact type
to their offspring 100% of the time.
6
A folk theorem of sorts from statistics that states that when sampling a
random distribution, as the sample size tends to infinity the samples
tend to represent the distribution ever more closely.
7
There is no rigor associated with how many samples guarantee how
well the distribution is represented by the samples.
138
Despite all these very high level assumptions, or perhaps
because of them, evolutionary game models have proved
vastly useful in biology often more useful than in
economics where the time frame is perhaps relatively short
to make the law of large numbers valid. Also, in
economics, there is an ongoing debate as to whether being
successful leads one to have more children or fewer, and
economic behavior may also be more learned than genetic
so types do not perfectly inherit the strategy of their
parents. When considering questions such as these one
must always consider that all the models in this book, and
all models in general, can sometimes be used at face value
to directly model phenomena in the world, and other times
they can be used indirectly to model phenomena by
analogy. For example, evolutionary models are often used
to model cultural inheritance, which is, in essence,
imitation a learning process. The dynamics can be
essentially the same, with successive generations imitating
the strategies of their parents generation in proportion to
the success they witnessed growing up. There are several
variations of evolution models, including one-population
models, two-population models, n-population models,
models with random quasi-mutation, genetic algorithms
with structured mutation, and overlapping generations
models in which a player lives 2 or more generations so
parents and children play the game together. The
computational details of basic one- and two-population
models are presented in the subsections that follow.
139
1.39 One-population models without
Mutation
Given a symmetric 2-player strategic form general-sum
game G = (a
ij
,b
ij
), a one-population evolutionary game
model is a population
p
t
= (x
1,t
,,x
n,t
)
where x
i,t
is the fraction of the i
th
pure type (i.e., the i
th
pure
strategy of G) in p
t
, the population at time t, along with an
evolution dynamic D: E E that yields a new population
from an existing population, where E is the set of all mixed
strategies of G. Note that because G is symmetric, the
strategy sets for player 1 and player 2 are the same so E
needs no subscript to distinguish it. D is difficult at best,
and generally counter-intuitive to express in closed form. It
useful to name the evolution dynamic simply for
convenience of reference and to indicate that other
dynamics beside the standard dynamic are admissible.
That being said, one standard evolution dynamic is
virtually always used, and is computed as follows:
A one-population evolutionary game model is initialized
with a starting population
) ,..., (
, , 1 0 t n t
x x p =
For any t 0 payoffs to each type i in generation t are
computed for each pure type as
w a x
n
j
ij t j t i
+ =
=1
, ,
t
where w is base fitness and x
j,t
and a
i,j
are as above in the
definition of p
t
and G. As will be seen below, the model
produces nonsense if payoffs go negative and if a type
140
payoff ever equals zero, that type will go extinct and never
return to the population without quasi-mutation, so w is
generally required to be large enough so that
t
t i
> , 0
,
t
and always required to be large enough to prevent negative
payoffs.
The average payoff is the continuous analogy of a straight
average, namely the total payoffs to all players divided by
the number of players. The continuous version of this
computation is simply the fraction of players with a given
payoff times that payoff, or
=
=
n
i
t i t i t ave
x
1
, , ,
t t
.
Given the type payoffs and the average payoff, the fraction
of each type in the population is updated as
t i
t ave
t i
t i
x x
,
,
,
1 ,
t
t
=
+
This update computation guarantees that the resulting
population qualifies as a mixed strategy, because w
guarantees type payoffs are positive, so average payoff is
positive, so the ratio is positive, so
0 , 0
,
> > t x
t i
, and
= = =
+
= = =
n
i
n
i
t i t i
t ave
t i
t ave
t i
n
i
t i
x x x
1 1
, ,
,
,
,
,
1
1 ,
1
1
t
t t
t
Starting with an initial mixed strategy population, the
evolution dynamic forever produces a new population from
141
the last. Individual types can converge to zero, or to unity,
or can converge to some mixture that is in balance with
other types, or can forever wander through the set of
possible populations (mixed strategies) without ever
settling down. The dynamics of different games are the
subject of a great deal of study. Some classic examples
will be presented in this chapter, based on some of the
famous games presented in chapter 3.
A note on symmetry: In a one-population model, the
symmetry requirement is necessary to avoid accounting for
which player has the role of player 1 and which the role of
player 2 when two players from the same population are
matched. If a strategic form game at least has symmetrical
strategy sets, then if each player took the role of player 1
half the time and player 2 half the time, the average payoffs
would be symmetric. This reasoning yields a method for
transforming a square two-player game with asymmetric
payoffs into a fully symmetric two-player game suitable for
a one-population model.
i. Hawk-Dove Evolution Dynamics
Consider the Hawk-Dove game (Section 3.9.3) with V = 2
and C = 3 (Figure 7.1).
142
Figure 1.46Hawk-Dove Numerical Example
The parameter w (base fitness) must be greater than to
keep payoffs positive, so for this example assume w = 1,
and let
( ) ( )
|
.
|
\
|
= = =
4
1
,
4
3
, ,
0 0 0 , 2 0 , 1 0
d h x x p
Update the population from time 0 to time 1:
( )
8
9
1 2
4
1
2
1
4
3
0 ,
= +
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
h
t
( ) ( )
8
10
1 1
4
1
0
4
3
0 ,
= +
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
=
d
t
32
37
8
10
4
1
8
9
4
3
0 ,
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
ave
t
37
27
4
3
32
37
8
9
1
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
= h
1
1
0
2
D
2
0
1/2
1/2
H
D H
1
1
0
2
D
2
0
1/2
1/2
H
D H
143
37
10
4
1
32
37
8
10
1
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
= d
|
.
|
\
|
= =
37
10
,
37
27
) , (
1 1 1
d h p
At t = 0, the doves outscore the hawks, so at t = 1 the
hawks have decreased in the population and the doves have
increased. The computations are then carried out for the
new population:
|
.
|
\
|
= =
37
10
,
37
27
) , (
1 1 1
d h p
( )
74
87
1 2
27
10
2
1
37
27
1 ,
= +
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
h
t
( ) ( )
74
94
1 1
37
10
0
37
27
1 ,
= +
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
=
d
t
2738
3289
74
94
37
10
94
87
37
27
1 ,
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
ave
t
3289
2349
37
27
2738
3289
74
87
2
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
= h
3289
940
37
10
2738
3289
74
94
2
=
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
= d
|
.
|
\
|
= =
3289
940
,
3289
2349
) , (
1 1 1
d h p
144
As can be seen in this example, the computations quickly
become quite messy and are best suited to a computer,
especially since the focus of analysis of evolution models is
the long run behavior. Example 7.1 was computed and
graphed for 100 generations with Mathematica (figure 7.2).
Figure 1.47Hawk-Dove Evolution
(V=2,C=3,w=1,h
0
=3/4,d
0
=1/4)
The fraction of Hawks in the population is graphed in blue
and the fraction of hawks in red. This is redundant because
the fractions always add up to 1, but it may help clarity to
actually see the values together. Further insight can be
gained making the same computations beginning with a
different starting population, or by varying the values of the
parameters (figures 7.3 to 7.6).
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
145
Figure 1.48Hawk-Dove Evolution
(V=2,C=3,w=1,h
0
=1/5,d
0
=4/5)
Figure 1.49Hawk-Dove Evolution
(V=2,C=3,w=5,h
0
=1/5,d
0
=4/5)
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
146
Figure 1.50Hawk-Dove Evolution
(V=2,C=4,w=5,h
0
=1/5,d
0
=4/5)
Figure 1.51Hawk-Dove Evolution
(V=2,C=8,w=5,h
0
=1/5,d
0
=4/5)
From figure 7.2 to 7.3, the starting population is changed
from
|
.
|
\
|
4
1
,
4
3
to
|
.
|
\
|
5
4
,
5
1
. This time the hawks outscore the
doves and increase in the population, but with a decreasing
rate of growth as their proportion in the population appears
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
147
to asymptotically approach
|
.
|
\
|
3
1
,
3
2
=
|
.
|
\
|
C
V C
C
V
, in both
7.2 and 7.3.
Comparing 7.3 to 7.4, the only difference is the value of
base fitness. Game payoffs range from a minimum of - to
a maximum of 2. When base fitness w = 1, total fitness
ranges from to 3, or 600% from the minimum to the
maximum. When w = 4, total fitness ranges from 3 to 7,
or 200% from the minimum to the maximum. Because of
the smaller relative variation in total fitness, the population
adjusts more slowly but ultimately converges
asymptotically to the same ratio.
In comparing graphs 7.4 through 7.6, the value V is held at
2 while the cost C varies through the values 3, 4 and 8. In
all cases the population converges to( )
|
.
|
\
|
=
C
V
C
V
d h
t t
1 , , .
This is no accident. When there are exactly
C
V
hawks,
both types score the same payoff, so the population will
stay at that ratio in the next generation, and therefore in the
next after that, and so on. That is, the population
( )
|
.
|
\
|
=
C
V
C
V
d h
t t
1 , , is an equilibrium of the population
dynamics of this model. Moreover, if there are fewer than
C
V
hawks, then the hawk payoff is greater than the dove
payoff, and if there are more than
C
V
hawks, the doves
outscore the hawks. Therefore, in any population
containing both hawks and doves, the dynamics will drive
148
the population toward this equilibrium mixture. This
behavior is explored more generally in next section.
1.40 Evolutionary Games as Dynamical
Systems
Evolutionary game models are an example of a discrete
time dynamical system. The state space is the set of all
heterogeneous populations in which every individual is a
pure genotype; that is every individual plays a pure
strategy. The state space is mathematically identical to the
set of all mixed strategies of the underlying strategic form
game that is played each generation. The update formula
that determines the population at time t+1 from the existing
population at time t is the evolution function of the system,
sometimes called the system dynamic. In evolutionary
games, the general term of evolution function used for
general dynamical systems literally represents evolution
and is often called the selection dynamic in this context,
referring to Charles Darwins theory of natural selection.
Evolutionary games have the property that the image of any
population under the selection dynamic is independent of
time. That is, assuming no mutation or quasi-mutation,
each population x
t
evolves to one and only one new
population x
t+1
, regardless of the time period t in which the
population arrives at the starting population x
t
. in the state
space. For a general discrete time dynamical system, the
evolution function | maps the cross product of the state
space and time into the state space, i.e. for x e X, t e Z,
|(x,t) e X.
149
i. Dynamic Equilibria
An equilibrium of a dynamical system is a fixed point of
the evolution function. That is, a point x in the state space
such that |(x,t) = x t, where | is the evolution function. It
was observed in the Hawk-Dove model of example 7.1.1
that a population ( )
|
.
|
\
|
=
C
V
C
V
d h
t t
1 , , is an equilibrium.
This text shall refer to equilibria of evolutionary game
models as dynamic equilibria in order to clearly distinguish
this concept from the related but distinctly different concept
of a Nash equilibrium.
A dynamic equilibrium in any evolutionary game model is
a population that remains fixed under the selection
dynamic. The only way this can happen is for all strategies
present in the population score the same payoff. The
qualification that strategies are present in the population
specifically means that they are present as a positive
fraction of the population. Under the selection dynamic,
each mixed strategy weight at time t+1 is a positive
multiple of the weight at time t. Therefore, a strategy can
only have weight zero at any time t if it starts at zero in the
population specified as initial conditions.
If a game has n pure strategies, the set of dynamic
equilibria can include equilibria in which any number of
strategies are absent from the population i.e. have zero
weight. These cases are routinely investigated by checking
each combination of types and solving the system of linear
equations that equate the payoffs of every type included in
the combination. Unlike Nash equilibrium which requires
that strategies given positive weight must be best
responses, dynamic equilibria of an evolutionary game
model can exist among inferior strategies if the higher
150
scoring strategies in the strategic form are left out of the
population. A thorough example of this as well as other
concepts is given in section 7.2.4.
If true evolution is being modeled, then extinction is a true
physical possibility. This could be possible in an evolution
model by allowing non-negative update multipliers, instead
of requiring strictly positive multipliers, but this could
mask the possibility of strategies almost going extinct and
growing back again to a substantial portion of the
population. If a strategy is truly destined for extinction, it
will converge to zero. After this has been identified, the
model can be analyzed again starting the would be extinct
population at zero. It should be noted that in a model with
no mutation or quasi-mutation, a population consisting of
exactly one genotype (strategy) is always trivially at
equilibrium by virtue of having no competition. It should
also be noted that in a model with mutation or quasi-
mutation, there are no true equilibria due to the randomness
of the evolution function. The convention when analyzing
evolution models is that the equilibria are defined as
strategies (or populations) alone with no reference to time,
because, as discussed above, the selection dynamic is
constant with respect to time for any particular population.
Pure strategies are often used to denote homogeneous
populations, i.e., consisting of only one type.
ii. Stable and Unstable Equilibria
In any dynamical system, an important property of
equilibria is their stability. A useful example of stability to
keep in mind is a pendulum. A pendulum has two
equilibria, at 0 degrees and 180 degrees, or 6 oclock and
12 oclock, so to speak. The equilibrium at 6 oclock is
stable: if the pendulum is pushed away from 6 oclock, the
151
system dynamic, namely the physical forces described by
Newtonian mechanics including gravity and momentum,
bring the pendulum back toward 6 oclock. Of course, it
may very likely swing past 6 oclock, but once on the other
side of 6 oclock, the system dynamic will again act to
return it to 6 oclock. This behavior illustrates the basic
concept of stability. The equilibrium at 12 oclock is very
different: if the pendulum is pushed the slightest bit off 12
oclock, the system dynamic takes it farther away from 12
oclock, rather than returning it. The 12 oclock
equilibrium is unstable. The mathematical definition of
stable equilibrium is given below.
1. Definition: Stable
Equilibrium
An equilibrium x* is stable if
- c > 0 ||x* x
t
|| < c lim
t
x
t
= x*
In other words, an equilibrium x* is stable if there exists an
open neighborhood such that if the system state is within
that neighborhood, the dynamics will pull it toward the
equilibrium. Therefore, if the system is pushed off the
equilibrium, for example by random events or an external
shock, then the dynamics will tend to restore the
equilibrium, as in the case of the pendulum at 6 oclock, so
long as the perturbation is small enough.
If an equilibrium is unstable, then an infinitesimally small
shock or random perturbation of the system can send it
reeling away from the equilibrium, perhaps never to come
close again like the pendulum at 12 oclock.
152
2. Definition: Evolutionarily
Stable Strategy
An evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is a stable
equilibrium of an evolutionary game, and by analogy is
also used to refer to apparently stable equilibria of the
actual evolution process of the physical world. ESS can be
pure strategies or mixed strategies. If they are mixed
strategies, the usual interpretation, that should be
considered the default in case it is not specified, is that the
equilibrium exists between a mixture of pure genotypes in
the population, not that the population consists of players
all having the same mixed type. The latter is possible to
consider mathematically, but generally gives different
results than the default assumption and it is always stated
explicitly when mixed types are intended. John Maynard-
Smith introduced the concept of ESS in single population
models his seminal book Evolutionary Game Theory.
Maynard-Smith gave test that follows to identify a pure
strategy ESS in a single population model by inspection of
the strategic form generation game.
3. Maynard-Smith Criteria
for Pure ESS
A pure strategy o is a single population ESS if either
i) t
1
(o,o) > t
1
(o,o) o, or
ii) t
1
(o,o) t
1
(o,o) o and t
1
(o,o) > t
1
(o,o) whenever
t
1
(o,o) = t
1
(o,o)
The technical proof is given in the appendix. The ideas
behind the proof are summarized here. If the first condition
holds, then in a population that is close to all o, the
payoff of any type o in the population will be close to the
153
pure type payoff of o vs o as given in the strategic form.
That is, when the population is almost all o, then the pure
strategy all o is a good approximation of the population
and the pure strategy payoff of each type o matched with o
is a good approximation of the types real payoff namely
the payoff computed with the precise mixed strategy
representing the population. An example follows.
Figure 1.52Pure ESS in a Single Population Model
In example 7.7, C is an ESS by criterion 7.2.1.3.i because
t
1
(C,C) = 4, t
1
(B,C) = 3 and t
1
(A,C) = 2 so t
1
(C,C) >
t
1
(B,C) and t
1
(C,C) > t
1
(A,C). B is an ESS by criterion
7.2.1.3.ii because t
1
(B,B) = 3, t
1
(A,B) = 3 and t
1
(C,B) = 1
so t
1
(B,B) > t
1
(C,B), t
1
(B,B) = t
1
(A,B), and t
1
(B,A) >
t
1
(A,A).
iii. Attractors and Basins of
Attraction
An attractor in a dynamical system is a point in the state
space with the property that, at least in a local
neighborhood, the system dynamics pull the system state
toward the point. The neighborhood in which the
dynamics pull toward the attractor is called the basin of
1,3
3,3
3,2
B
3,1 2,3 B
4,4
2,2
C
2,2 C
1,1 A
A
1,3
3,3
3,2
B
3,1 2,3 B
4,4
2,2
C
2,2 C
1,1 A
A
154
attraction, making the analogy of the attractor as a drain
down into which all the water in the basin runs. If the basin
of attraction of an attractor is the entire state space, then the
attractor is called a global attractor. An attractor that is not
a global attractor is called a local attractor. Sometime the
term global attractor is used with additional qualifiers, e.g.
the equilibrium
C
V
hawks and
C
V
1 doves is a global
attractor within the interior of the state space of the hawk
dove game, meaning that as long as there are both hawks
and doves present in the population then the selection
dynamic pulls the population toward the equilibrium.
Because pure type populations are always at equilibrium
without mutation or quasi-mutation, there are no
unqualified global attractors in evolutionary game models.
The hawk-dove example is somewhat typical in that
attractors are usually stable equilibria. It is possible for a
system dynamic to actually repel a system from an attractor
if the attractor is ever reached, but this is uncommon (see
playing dead model coming soon). While attractors are
usually stable equilibria, stable equilibria are always
attractors at least local attractors. The definition of stable
equilibrium is precisely an equilibrium that is a local
attractor in some neighborhood, however small.
The hawk-dove model is also an example of a mixed
strategy ESS. Maynard-Smiths test makes it easy to find
pure strategy ESS in any strategic form game, but finding
mixed strategy ESS can be much harder if there are more
than two pure strategies. Finding equilibria is
straightforward and will be covered in the next section. In
a game of two types, such as the hawk-dove game,
determining stability is also straightforward because there
155
is only one possible dimension of deviation from the
equilibrium: the ratio of types can be only more or less than
equilibrium. Observing the selective pressure on either
side of the equilibrium will quickly verify or negate
stability. When there are three or more pure strategies,
there are infinitely many directions in which the ratio can
perturbed from the equilibrium and there are infinitely
many paths by which the dynamics can pull the state back
toward the equilibrium. If there is a single direction of
perturbation which does not result in a return to the
equilibrium, this negates stability. To prove stability one
must prove that all directions of perturbation result in a
return toward equilibrium. The example that follows is
from Dean Foster and Peyton Young. It illustrates stable
and unstable equilibria and basins of attraction.
iv. Repeated Prisoners Dilemma
Evolution
Foster and Young considered as a generation game a
prisoners dilemma repeated for 10 periods, with payoffs
from each round accumulating. They took as stage payoffs
the common Prisoners Dilemma payoff matrix of figure
3.24 and they considered three pure strategies for the 10-
round repeated game: consistent cooperation, denoted C,
consistent defection, denoted D, and tit-for-tat, denoted T.
Recall tit-for-tat is the strategy cooperate on the first move
and on each subsequent move echo the co-players move in
the previous round. The accumulated payoffs for each
pure strategy match after ten rounds of play are simply 10
times the stage payoffs for the constant strategies. T paired
with D can be computed by considering the outcome in
each round. In round one, D defects and T cooperates, so
the payoffs are zero for T and 5 for D. In rounds 2 through
156
10, both T and D defect and get payoff 1 each. Over 10
rounds, T accumulates 9 and D accumulates 14. T
cooperates in every round when matched with C, so they
get 30 each (figure 7.8).
Figure 1.53Foster & Young 10-Round Prisoners Dilemma
The pure strategies are all equilibria, as noted above, but
only D (all D players) is an ESS, by 7.2.2.3.i. T is not
stable because if C players enter the population, they score
as well as the T players, so the dynamics do not take the
population back to all T players. To look for mixed
equilibria, we check populations of C and D, C and T, D
and T, and populations consisting of all three types. C and
D can never be at equilibrium because the D dominates C
relative to any mix of C and D. C and T can be at
equilibrium in any mix because their payoffs when matched
with each other are identical. To check for a mix of D and
T, we set their payoffs equal:
t
1
((0,1,0),(0,d,1 d)) = t
1
((0,0,1),(0,d,1 d))
or
(10d + 14(1 d) = 9d + 30(1 D)
9,14
10,10
0,50
D
14,9 50,0 D
30,30
30,30
T
30,30 T
30,30 C
C
9,14
10,10
0,50
D
14,9 50,0 D
30,30
30,30
T
30,30 T
30,30 C
C
157
which yields d = 16/17, or population = (0, 16/17, 1/17).
To check for the possibility of all three types in the mix,
observe that as long as there are Ds present in the mix, the
T dominates C so there is no equilibrium. The dynamics
are illustrated in a graph of the state space (figure 7.9).
Although T is not an ESS, it is a local attractor in the
interior of the state space, i.e. when all three types are
present. D is a local attractor because its an ESS. The
basins of attraction of D and T can be found by determining
when there is enough D in the population to result in an
inexorable movement of the population toward ever more
D, and likewise when there is enough T to lead to ever
more T.
Figure 1.54Foster & Young PD Evolution Dynamics
(dynamic equilibria marked in red)
The dividing line is where D and T are getting the same
payoff but rather than the equilibrium, we are interested
in the interior points where there are Cs in the population.
C
D
T
|
.
|
\
|
17
1
,
17
16
, 0
c t d
17
36
17
16
19
36
19
20
= =
158
t
1
((0,1,0),(c,d,1 c d)) = t
1
((0,0,1),(c,d,1 c d))
or
50c + 10d + 14(1 c d) = 30c + 9d + 30(1 c d)
or
d =
c
17
36
17
16
Thus, the set of points along which D and T get the same
payoff is a line segment from the c = 0 boundary to the d =
0 boundary. The end of the segment at c = 0 is the mixed
equilibrium (0,16/17,1/17). The end of the segment at d =
0 is the mixed equilibrium of (4/9,0,5/9). Recall that all
populations with d = 0 are equilibria and they are unstable
precisely because all their neighbors on that boundary are
also equilibria.
Consider an interior point at which d > c
17
36
17
16
. D will
outscore T, which always outscores C when d > 0, so the
Ds will grow the fastest in the population and D will
outscore T and C by even more, accelerating the
convergence of the population toward all D. Likewise, if d
< c
17
36
17
16
, T will outscore D and Ts will grow in the
population relative to Ds, and d will fall even farther
below c
17
36
17
16
. This last point may not be obvious, but it
can be checked by recasting the dividing line as d =
t
19
36
19
20
. From this formulation it is clear that if T
outscores D in one generation, it will do so again in the
159
next, and visa-versa. Whether or not C outscores D
depends on the fraction of D in the population. At any
given point in the state space, one can compute the
direction in which the selection dynamic will pull the
population called the selective pressure.
v. Quasi-Mutation
Quasi-mutation in evolutionary game models means that
each pure type in the population is reproduced in the next
generation in part randomly. That is, instead of the
proportions in the next generation being entirely
determined by the selection dynamic, the population at time
t+1, pop
t+1
= (1 c
t
)
*
sel
t+1
+ c
t
*
pop
ave
, where sel
t+1
is the
population determined by the selection dynamic at time t+1
and pop
ave
is the population consisting of all pure types
weighted equally. In other words, each pure type is
reproduced randomly with proportion c
t
/n, where n is the
number of pure types and c
t
is a random number in an
interval [0,c] for some c > 0. The same idea can be made
even finer scaled by selecting a different perturbation
magnitude c
t,o
for each pure type each period. The name
quasi-mutation refers to the fact that no new strategies are
being introduced into the population. Genetic algorithms,
discussed in Appendix B, go farther toward modeling true
mutation by constructing strategies (types) out of building
blocks and exercising recombination of these building
blocks in the reproduction process. The basic evolution
models, even with quasi-mutation, have no recombination
so the basic set of strategies remains fixed.
The first order effect of quasi-mutation is that there are no
more true equilibria. In particular, all pure type equilibria
cease to exist as do all equilibria with any number of types
160
missing form the population. Thus quasi-mutation
guarantees that selection dynamics, which will continue to
account for most of the evolution of the population, will
be based on payoffs against all types, not just a subset.
Even low-scoring types can play an important role under
quasi-mutation if they slightly influence the balance
between high scoring types.
The only equilibria from deterministic models that continue
to have importance in models with quasi-mutation are
stable equilibria, i.e. local or global attractors. A stable
equilibrium of a deterministic model will be a quasi-
equilibrium and remain quasi-stable so long as the e
governing the quasi-mutation is considerably smaller than
the basin of attraction of the deterministic equilibrium.
That is, if the random perturbation does not carry the
population outside the basin of attraction, at least not very
often. A perturbation can take the population part way to
the edge of the basin in one generation, and before the
population can return it takes it closer to the edge in a
subsequent generation, and based on the selective pressure
it can be more or less likely that the population randomly
leaves the basin of attraction of one attractor and falls in to
the basin of another attractor.
Foster and Young presented this argument (for the author
takes no credit) in the paper in which the 3-type repeated
prisoners dilemma model of 7.2.4. The pure defection
type remains quasi-stable and the tit-for-tat type, which was
not technically stable in the deterministic model but which
was almost stable becomes
quasi-stable. All other equilibria cease to have special
properties. Foster and Young went further by using Monte
Carlo computer simulation experiments to test how often
such a random switch of attractors might occur or tens of
161
millions of generations. They found that, on average, the
population would spend about 90% of the time in the near
vicinity of the pure defection attractor and only about 10%
of its time near the tit-for-tat attractor. They explained this
by observing that the pure cooperation type was not
selected against very strongly in a population with very few
defectors. Thus it was much easier for the population to
randomly stray across the bottom of the state space with
low d until the ratio of c/t became large enough that the
population had fallen into the basin of the defection
attractor. Once in that basin, the payoff differential
eliminated cooperators rather quickly and hurried the
convergence toward the defection attractor. Once in the
neighborhood of the defection attractor, the selective
pressure against tit-for-tat was much stronger than the
selective pressure against cooperation in the basin of tit-for
tat, so random shifts toward the tit-for-tat basin were
quickly counteracted by selection and only the luckiest
sequence of shifts toward the tit-for-tat attractor would spill
into the basin of attraction for tit-for-tat.
vi. RockScissorsPaper Evolution
Dynamics
RockScissorsPaper is somewhat famous as an
evolutionary game because of its interesting dynamics.
The payoff matrix given in figure 3.28 is repeated here for
convenience (figure 7.10).
162
Figure 1.55Rock Scissors Paper as a Generation Game
The only equilibrium in the interior is (1/3,1/3,1/3),
because in each pair of different types, one beats the other
and they all tie themselves. This can be seen in the payoff
matrix where in any 2x2 symmetric sub-matrix
|
|
.
|
\
|
ajj aji
ij aii
one type always dominates so no two types ever get the
same payoff without the third type present.
The equilibrium is far from stable. In fact, it can never be
reached if the population is not initialized at that point.
Instead, the selection dynamics take the population on a
cyclic path toward one pure type and then another until the
population is virtually tracing the boundary of the
triangular state space. Figure 7.11 was generated by with a
starting population of (1/3+2c,1/3c, 1/3c), where c =
.005. Because at the start there are more rocks, paper does
the best and scissors does the worst. When the rocks have
declined enough and the paper increased enough, the
scissors become the high scorers and increase while the
paper declines the fastest until there are so many scissors
and so few papers that the rocks become the high scorers.
1
0
1
S
1 1 S
0
1
P
1 P
0 R
R
1
0
1
S
1 1 S
0
1
P
1 P
0 R
R
163
Figure 1.56 Rock Scissors Paper Evolution Dynamics
The smaller a type gets in the population, the longer it takes
to grow back even when it is getting the better score, and
the bigger a type in the population, the faster it takes over
the population when it gets a better score, so the dynamics
take ever more wild swings leading to a type of
convergence called limit cycles. A rigorous proof of this
outcome and its inevitability is deferred to Appendix A.
1. Definition: Limit Cycle
To be completed later.
vii. Finding one-population dynamic
equilibria
This section merely crystallizes the key steps from the
preceding examples of how to exhaustively search for all
dynamic equilibria of a one-population evolutionary game
model.
R
S
P
164
1. All pure strategies (i.e. all populations with only
one type present in non-zero proportion) are
trivially in equilibrium by virtue of no competition.
2. For each subset {i
1
,,i
k
} _ {1,,n}of k pure
strategies, 2 s k s n, check for a mixed strategy x =
(x
1
,,x
n
) such that x
i
> 0 for i = i
1
,,i
k
and x
i
= 0
for i = i
1
,,i
k
and such that the payoffs a
i
.
x are equal
for each pure strategy i in the set {i
1
,,i
k
}, where a
i
= {a
i1
,,a
in
} Any such x for any value of k is an
equilibrium population.
Step (2) is quite similar to the table method of section 3.7
but it is simpler in two ways. First, only the diagonal of the
table is checked because in a one-population model, the
mixed strategy of the column player is the one and only
population and player one alternately takes on the role of
each pure strategy, which all must get the same against the
population mixture to be in equilibrium. Second, we are
not concerned about the strategies not in the population.
Therefore, we do not eliminate strategies if they are
dominated only by strategies outside the set. If some
strategy is dominated by a strategy inside the set, we dont
just eliminate the dominated strategies we eliminate the
entire set as a possible equilibrium.
1.41 Two-population Evolution Models
In a one-population model, members of a single population
are repeatedly matched with one another to play a two
player game, In a two-population model, members of one
population are repeatedly matched with members of a
second population to play a two-player game. This
fundamental difference is the reason for every other
difference between one- and two-population models. One
165
difference is that the generation game for a two-population
model need not be symmetric. Recall that in a one-
population model, the symmetry requirement is necessary
to avoid accounting for which player has the role of player
1 and which the role of player 2 when two players from the
same population are matched. In a two population model,
members of the player 1 population always have the role
of player 1 and members of the player 2 population
always have the role of player 2. Another difference is that
base fitness need not be the same for the two populations,
so there can be two base fitness parameters so the rates of
change of the two populations can be controlled
independently. Naturally, the computational formulas of
two-population models are different from the one-
population formulas, but entirely consistent when the
fundamental difference in the model is taken into account.
Let G = (a
ij
,b
ij
) be any general sum game with the usual
convention that a
ij
and b
ij
are the payoffs to players 1 and 2,
respectively, when pure strategies i and j are used. A two-
population evolutionary game model is initialized with two
starting populations
) ,..., (
, , 1 0 t m t
x x x =
) ,..., (
, , 1 0 t n t
y y y =
For any t 0 payoffs to each type i in population 1 in
generation t are computed for each pure type as
1
1
, ,
w a y
n
j
ij t j t i
+ =
=
t
where w
1
is base fitness for population 1. Notice that the
payoff to any member of population 1 depends on the
166
mixture of types in population 2 because it is from
population 2 that the opponents are randomly selected.
The average payoff in population 1, as in a one-population
model, is
=
=
m
i
t i t i t ave
x
1
, , , 1
t t
.
Given the type payoffs and the average payoff, the fraction
of each type in population 1 is updated just as in a one-
population model:
t i
t ave
t i
t i
x x
,
, 1 ,
,
1 ,
t
t
=
+
For any t 0 payoffs to each type i in population 2 in
generation t are computed for each pure type as
2
1
, ,
w b x
m
i
ij t i t j
+ =
=
t
where w
2
is base fitness for population 1. The payoff to
any member of population 2 depends on the mixture of
types in population 1 because it is from population 1 that
the opponents are randomly selected.
The average payoff in population 2, is
=
=
n
j
t j t j t ave
y
1
, , , 2
t t
.
The fraction of each type in population 2 is updated as
t j
t ave
t j
t j
y y
,
, 2 ,
,
1 ,
t
t
=
+
167
Starting with an initial pair of mixed strategy populations,
each population updates in response to the other
population, after which they each react to each others
updates and this cycle continues forever. The dynamic
possibilities are analogous to the one population case, with
considerable increase in the possible complexity as the two
populations are not only interacting but they can evolve at
different rates, controlled by the two base fitness
parameters w1 and w2.
i. Two Population Numerical
Example
This example is solely to illustrate the calculations just
described. Subsequent examples will relate the modeling
to evolution of predator prey interactions. An arbitrary
payoff matrix is given along with initial values and base
fitness for the two populations, after which the update
computations are shown.
w
1
= 1; w
2
= 2
|
.
|
\
|
=
|
.
|
\
|
=
5
2
,
5
2
,
5
1
;
3
1
,
3
2
0 0
y x
Update population 1 from time 0 to time 1:
B
A
E D C
3,1 1,1 1,2
1,4 2,1 2,1
B
A
E D C
3,1 1,1 1,2
1,4 2,1 2,1
168
5
13
1 1
5
2
2
5
2
2
5
1
0 ,
= + + + =
A
t
5
14
1 3
5
2
1
5
2
1
5
1
0 ,
= + + + =
B
t
15
40
5
14
3
1
5
13
3
2
0 , 1
= + =
ave
t
40
26
40
15
5
13
3
2
1 ,
= =
A
t
40
14
40
15
5
14
3
1
1 ,
= =
B
t
Update population 2 from time 0 to time 1:
3
10
2 2
3
1
1
3
2
0 ,
= + + =
C
t
3
9
2 1
3
1
1
3
2
0 ,
= + + =
D
t
3
15
2 1
3
1
4
3
2
0 ,
= + + =
E
t
15
58
3
15
5
2
3
9
5
2
3
10
5
1
0 , 2
= + + =
ave
t
58
10
58
15
3
10
5
1
1 ,
= =
C
t
58
18
58
15
3
9
5
2
1 ,
= =
D
t
58
30
58
15
3
15
5
2
1 ,
= =
E
t
169
Notice in the example how the mixture of a types
opponent population is what affects the game payoffs and
the mixture of a types own population is what affects the
average payoff in that population. This should be
completely clear if you understand the map between the
formulas and the interactions being modeled. It is repeated
here to urge the reader to pause and review if it is not clear.
ii. Finding Two-Population Dynamic
Equilibria
Finding dynamic equilibria is even more similar to finding
Nash equilibria in a two-population evolution model than in
a one-population model, because the restriction of
symmetry is removed. The table method of section 3.7 is
recommended as a book-keeping structure, but, as with
one-population equilibria, domination by strategies given
zero weight is irrelevant. The only requirement is that
every strategy given positive in each mixture under
consideration can get the same payoff by some choice of
weights on the strategies assumed to be present in opponent
population. The game of 7.3.1 is used here for an example
of how to exhaustively search for all two-population
equilibria.
170
Figure 1.57Equilibrium Possibilities for Example 7.3.1
The following codes explain the reasons for eliminating the
possibility of equilibria satisfying the mixture assumptions
of the table cells. Multiple codes in some cells explain all
possible justifications for elimination, though a single
justification always suffices.
X1 When population 1 consists only of type A, type E
dominates C and D so no mixture including E will be in
equilibrium.
X2 When population 1 consists only of type B, type C
dominates D and E so no mixture including E will be in
equilibrium.
X3 When population 1 is a mix of types A and B, type D
is dominated by both C and E, and so no mixture including
D will be in equilibrium.
Z1 When population 2 consists solely of type C or D,
type A dominates type B, so no mixture of A and B will be
in equilibrium.
Z2 When population 2 consists solely of type E, type B
dominates type A, so no mixture of A and B will be in
equilibrium.
X3 X3 E3 X3,Z3 Z2 Z1 Z1 AB
X2 E2 X2 X2 B
X1 X1 X1 E1
E0
A
CDE DE CE CD E D C
X3 X3 E3 X3,Z3 Z2 Z1 Z1 AB
X2 E2 X2 X2 B
X1 X1 X1 E1
E0
A
CDE DE CE CD E D C
171
Z3 When population 2 is a mix of types C and D, A
dominates B so no mixture of A and B will be in
equilibrium.
Cells not eliminated from the table are then further
analyzed for equilibria.
E0 All profiles consisting of a single type in each
population are trivially in equilibrium by virtue of having
no competition.
E1 Population 1 is trivially in equilibrium and any
mixture of C and D in population 2 is in equilibrium
because C and D get the same payoff against A.
E2 Population 1 is trivially in equilibrium and any
mixture of D and E in population 2 is in equilibrium
because D and E get the same payoff against B.
E3 Population 1 is in equilibrium if A and B get the same
payoff, which occurs if the mix in population 2 is (2/3, 0,
1/3). Population 2 is in equilibrium if C and E get the same
payoff, which occurs if the mix in population 1 is (1/4,3/4).
iii. Two Population Predator Prey
Example
Coming soon nothing technically new just a application
showing how the math structures can model a real world
example.
1.42 Comparing Nash and
Evolutionary Equilibria
This very short section is given a high level in the outline
because of its importance and its generality. The
similarities and differences between Nash equilibria and
dynamic equilibria of evolutionary models are summarized
172
for quick reference and with an emphasis on concept over
computation.
The first important difference is conceptual: a Nash
equilibrium is a strategy choice for each of several players
in a game. Dynamic equilibrium in an evolution model is
not a set of strategy choices it is a set of one or more
populations, each made up of individuals who each play a
particular pure strategy exclusively. A Nash equilibrium
for a two-player game includes two strategies one for
each player, but when a one-population model is made
from a two player game, a dynamic equilibrium is just a
single population. Members of the population are
randomly matched over and over to play each other in the
two player game so the payoff to an individual player, over
a lifetime of matches in a generation, are on average the
mixed strategy payoffs of that players exclusive pure
strategy against the mixed strategy that represents the
population.
A mathematical similarity between Nash equilibrium and
evolutionary equilibrium is that both require all strategies
in the mix to get equal payoff. The difference is that for
dynamic equilibria we dont care about the strategies not in
the mix and for Nash equilibria we require that strategies
not in the mix get lesser or most equal payoff to those in
the mix. In two-population models that is the only
mathematical difference, so any Nash equilibrium of a two
player game corresponds to exactly one dynamic
equilibrium of the two-population evolution model
corresponding to the game. A one population model can
only be made from a symmetric two player game and the
only Nash equilibria that correspond to dynamic equilibria
are the symmetric equilibria; i.e., those of the form (x,x).
Therefore, while the set of Nash equilibria can be thought
173
of as a subset of the set of dynamic equilibria for two-
population models, the same cannot be said of one-
population models. For a one-population models, there can
be Nash equilibria of the game that do not correspond to
dynamic equilibria. For both one- and two-population
models, there can be dynamic equilibria that do not
correspond to Nash equilibria because the population
(mixed strategy) is such that all pure strategies given
positive weight are equally inferior responses to the
mixture. Note that if all strategies in the generation game
are given positive weight by a strategy x, and all get equal
payoff against x, then the x is a dynamic equilibrium of a
one-population model, (x,x) is a dynamic equilibrium of a
two-population model, and (x,x) is a Nash equilibrium of
the game. Thus there is a one-to-one correspondence of
Nash equilibria giving positive weight to all pure strategies
and evolutionary equilibria of either one- or two-population
models containing all pure types in positive proportion.
174
a. Deferred Proofs
i. Chapter 1
Proofs
None.
175
ii. Chapter 2
Proofs
1. Backw
ard
Induct
ion
iii. Chapter 3
Proofs
1. Existe
nce of
Mixed
Equili
bria in
Strate
gic
Form
Games
iv. Chapter 4
Proofs
176
1. Existe
nce of
Mixed
Equili
bria in
Games
with a
Contin
uum
of
Strate
gies
v. Chapter 5
Proofs
1. Folk
Theor
em of
Equili
brium
in the
Infinit
ely
Repeat
ed
Prison
ers
Dilem
ma
vi. Chapter 6
Proofs
177
1. Existe
nce
and
Uniqu
eness
of
Nash
Arbitr
ation
Soluti
on
vii. Chapter 7
Proofs
1. Mayna
rd-
Smith
Pure
ESS
Criteri
a
2. Conve
rgence
to
limit
cycles
in the
rock-
scissor
s-
paper
game
178
b. Supplemental Topics
viii. Chapter 1
Topics
1. WWII
and
Opera
tions
Resear
ch
2. The
Rand
Corpo
ration
ix. Chapter 2
Topics
1. Chess
2. Multi-
stage
Games
3. Refine
ments
of
Nash
Equili
brium
x. Chapter 3
Topics
179
1. Infinit
e
Strate
gic
Form
Games
xi. Chapter 4
Topics
1. More
Econo
mic
Model
s
xii. Chapter 5
Topics
1. Repeat
ed
Prison
ers
Dilem
ma
Tourn
ament
s
180
2. More
on
Adapti
ve and
Reinfo
rceme
nt
Learni
ng
3. Games
on
Graph
s -
Local
Intera
ction
Netwo
rks -
Casca
des
xiii. Chapter 6
Topics
1. What
if the
Grand
Coaliti
on
Doesn
t
Form?
181
xiv. Chapter 7
Topics
1. Geneti
c
Algori
thms
2. Selecti
on via
multip
le
games
3. Over-
lappin
g
Gener
ations
Model
s
4. Signali
ng
Games
and
the
Handi
cap
Princi
ple
182
5. Byrne-
Kurla
nd
Self-
Decept
ion
Model
183
c. Applications of Game Theory
Auctions (FCC + eBay)
Taxation Audits
War
Policy Analysis/Mechanism design (welfare, traffic,
healthcare, pollution, climate change, )
Price choosing, investment analysis, other economic &
business questions
Biology, Psychology, Computer Science, sociology
184
d. Solutions to Exercises
185
e. References