UNIT 2

RESEARCH DESIGN

LESSON 4

BRIEF OVERVIEW OF PROCESS OF RESEARCH DESIGNS

LESSON 5

EXPLORATORY RESEARCH QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

DESIGN:

SECONDARY

DATA

AND

LESSON 6

DESCRIPTIVE AND CAUSAL RESEARCH

___________________________________________________________________ LESSON 4 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF PROCESS OF RESEARCH DESIGNS

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

INTRODUCTION RESEARCH DESIGN BRIEF OVERVIEW OF EXPLORATORY, DESCRIPTIVE, AND CAUSAL RESEARCH DESIGNS IMPORTANT POINTS ABOUT RESEARCH DESIGN ERRORS IN MARKETING RESEARCH DESIGN SUMMARY REFERENCES

________________________________________________________ LESSON 4 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF PROCESS OF RESEARCH DESIGNS

In this section, we discuss the topic of research design. We then provide a brief overview of exploratory, descriptive and causal research designs. Some important prescriptive points about research designs are then provided. We conclude with a discussion of errors in marketing research design. 4.1 RESEARCH DESIGN

Research design is basically a roadmap for conducting the MR project. It provides a list of procedures for obtaining the information required. The components of a research design are as follows: i. Define the information needed ii. Design the exploratory, descriptive, and/or causal phases of the research iii. Specify the measurement and scaling procedures iv. Construct and pretest a questionnaire (interviewing form) or an appropriate form for data collection v. Specify the sampling process and sample size vi. Develop a plan of data analysis A classification of marketing research designs is provided in Figure 4.1 below:

Figure 4.1: Marketing Research Design The various components of this classification chart are explained below. The differences of exploratory and conclusive research are explained in table below.

Objective:

Exploratory To provide insights and understanding. Information needed is defined only loosely. Research process is flexible and unstructured. Sample is small and nonrepresentative. Analysis of primary data is qualitative.

Conclusive To test specific hypotheses and examine relationships. Information needed is clearly defined. Research process is formal and structured. Sample is large and representative. Data analysis is quantitative.

Characteristics:

Findings /Results: Outcome:

Tentative Generally followed by further exploratory or conclusive research.

Conclusive Findings used as input into decision making.

Table 4.1: Difference between Exploratory and Conclusive Research Designs 4.2 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF EXPLORATORY, DESCRIPTIVE, AND CAUSAL RESEARCH DESIGNS

4.2.1 Exploratory Research Design The uses of Exploratory Research are as follows: Formulate a problem or define a problem more precisely Identify alternative courses of action Develop hypotheses Isolate key variables and relationships for further examination Gain insights for developing an approach to the problem Establish priorities for further research The methods for conducting exploratory research include: Survey of experts, Pilot surveys, Secondary data analyzed in a qualitative manner, and Qualitative research. 4.2.2 Descriptive Research Design The uses of Descriptive Research are as follows: To describe the characteristics of relevant groups, such as consumers, salespeople, organizations, or market areas. To estimate the percentage of units in a specified population exhibiting a certain behavior. To determine the perceptions of product characteristics. 4

To determine the degree to which marketing variables are associated. To make specific predictions

The methods for conducting descriptive research include: Secondary data analyzed in a quantitative as opposed to a qualitative manner, Surveys, Panels, Observational and other data. Some examples and applications are given below: (i) A survey of females for office clothing showed that 39% of respondents preferred durable clothes, while the rest preferred fashionable clothes. The majority of respondents preferred a combination of functionality and aesthetics. They also reported that currently no brand meets these needs. Data were collected on the prices and sales volume of a soft drink brand bought on those prices for a city area. The hypothesis to be tested was that the customers of the brand are not price sensitive. A model was developed to be applied to the data to test the hypothesis.

(ii)

The applications of the descriptive analysis include the buyer behavior, market share analysis, and sales analysis. Descriptive research designs are of two types: (i) Cross-sectional design, and (ii) Longitudinal designs. These are explained below. 4.2.2.1 Cross-sectional Descriptive Research Design

A Cross-sectional Descriptive Research Design involves the collection of information from any given sample of population elements only once. In single cross-sectional designs, there is only one sample of respondents and information is obtained from this sample only once. In multiple cross-sectional designs, there are two or more samples of respondents, and information from each sample is obtained only once. Often, information from different samples is obtained at different times. A special type of design, Cohort analysis, consists of a series of surveys conducted at appropriate time intervals, where the cohort serves as the basic unit of analysis. A cohort is a group of respondents who experience the same event within the same time interval. 4.2.2.2 Longitudinal Descriptive Research Design

In Longitudinal Descriptive Research Design, a fixed sample (or samples) of population elements is measured repeatedly on the same variables. A longitudinal design differs from a crosssectional design in that the sample or samples remain the same over time

4.2.3 Causal Research Design The uses of Causal Research are as follows: To understand which variables are the cause (independent variables) and which variables are the effect (dependent variables) of a phenomenon To determine the nature of the relationship between the causal variables and the effect to be predicted

The major method for conducting causal research is basically experiments.

4.3

IMPORTANT POINTS ABOUT RESEARCH DESIGN

The following prescriptive and important points should be kept in mind regarding research design (i) (ii) (iii) The exploratory design should be carried out in the beginning if little is known about the problem. It could then be followed up by descriptive or causal designs. A routinely carried out research need not involve the exploratory phase. The exploratory phase may follow descriptive or causal designs. This may be the case when surprising results are obtained, and need further explanation.

4.4

ERRORS IN MARKETING RESEARCH DESIGN

The following figure shows the various sources of errors in marketing research designs:

Figure 4.2: Sources of Errors in Marketing Research Designs These errors are explained below: The total error is the variation between the true mean value in the population of the variable of interest and the observed mean value obtained in the marketing research project. Random sampling error is the variation between the true mean value for the population and the true mean value for the original sample. Non-sampling errors can be attributed to sources other than sampling, and they may be random or nonrandom: including errors in problem definition, approach, scales, questionnaire design, interviewing methods, and data preparation and analysis. Non-sampling errors consist of non-response errors and response errors. Non-response error arises when some of the respondents included in the sample do not respond. Response error arises when respondents give inaccurate answers, or their answers are misrecorded or misanalyzed.

Self-check Questions 1) What do you understand by the term research design? What is its importance? What are its different types? 2) Highlight various aspects of exploratory, descriptive and causal research design. 3) Describe the various errors in marketing research designs. 4.5 SUMMARY

In this lesson, we discussed the topic of research design. We then provided a brief overview of exploratory, descriptive and causal research designs. Some important prescriptive points about research designs were then provided. We concluded with a discussion of errors in marketing research design. 4.6 REFERENCES Naresh Malhotra: Marketing Research: An Applied Orientation, Pearson Education Tull & Hawkins: Marketing Research Measurement & Methods, Prentice-Hall G.C. Beni: Marketing Research Young PV: Scientific Social Survey and Research Goode, WG & Hatt: Methods of Social Research

___________________________________________________________________ LESSON 5 EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: SECONDARY DATA AND QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

TABLE OF CONTENTS:
5.0 5.1 INTRODUCTION EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: SECONDARY DATA Internal Secondary Data External Secondary Data EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: QUALITATIVE RESEARCH Focus Group Discussion (FGD) Depth Interview Projective Techniques SUMMARY REFERENCES

5.2

5.3 5.4

___________________________________________________________________ LESSON 5 EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: SECONDARY DATA AND QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

5.0

INTRODUCTION

In this lesson, we discuss two broad techniques of exploratory research design, namely, secondary data, and qualitative research. For secondary data, both internal and external sources of secondary data are discussed. Three techniques of qualitative research are discussed: focus group discussion (FGD), depth interview, and projective techniques. 5.1 EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: SECONDARY DATA

We begin the discussion in this section by contrasting primary versus secondary data: Primary data are originated by a researcher for the specific purpose of addressing the problem at hand. The collection of primary data involves all six steps of the marketing research process. In contrast, secondary data are data which have already been collected for purposes other than the problem at hand. These data can be located quickly and inexpensively. Thus, secondary data is Already collected data for purposes other than the problem at hand, Quick and inexpensive, Easily accessible, and Often, available on topics on which it may not be feasible for an individual firm to collect data (e.g., census data). The uses of secondary data are for (i) identifying the problem, (ii) better defining the problem, (iii) developing an approach to the problem, (iv) identifying the key variables, and (v) interpreting primary data more insightfully. Some hypothetical examples of secondary data (along with their source) are given below: Samsung in-house consumer database aided by a tollfree number (Internal database) Dep. of Income Tax states that by 2015, 25% of population will be taxpayer ( Government Department) A J.D. Powers study shows that Indica is Indias No. 1 small car (Syndicated firms). National Milk Federations latest study shows that , by 2018, per capita milk consumption will be 600 ml per day (Industry association) Forrester Research study says that digital marketing will grow to $640 billion this year (Consulting firms) A study published in Journal of Retailing in 1988 shows that five most important factor underlying service quality are: tangibility, empathy, responsiveness, assurance, reliability (Academic research) 10

The criteria for evaluating secondary data are listed below: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. Specifications: methodology used to collect the data Error: accuracy of the data Currency: when the data were collected Objective(s): the purpose for which the data were collected Nature: the content of the data Dependability: overall, how dependable are the data

A classification of secondary data is given in the figure below:

Figure 5.1: Classification of Secondary Data 5.1.1 Internal Secondary Data We first discuss an example of internal secondary data in the context of the department store project. In that project, sales were analyzed to obtain: Sales by product line Sales by major department (e.g., men's wear, house wares) Sales by specific stores Sales by geographical region Sales by cash versus credit purchases Sales in specific time periods Sales by size of purchase Sales trends in many of these classifications were also examined.

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Thus, internal secondary data includes sales records, cost data, and other forms of data that are routinely available from the MIS of the company. The internal secondary data have two distinct advantages: they are (i) inexpensive and (ii) quick to access. 5.1.2 External Secondary Data 5.1.2.1 Published Secondary Sources

A classification of published secondary sources is given in the figure below:

Figure 5.2: Classification of Published Secondary Sources Some of the above data types are explained below: Guides are an excellent source of standard or recurring information. They are helpful in identifying other important sources of directories, trade associations, and trade publications. Directories are helpful for identifying individuals or organizations that collect specific data Indices are helpful in locating information on a particular topic in several different publications 5.1.2.2 Computerized Databases

A classification of computerized data base is given in the following figure.

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Figure 5.3: Classification of Computerized Databases The classification of computerized databases is explained below. Bibliographic databases are composed of citations to articles. Numeric databases contain numerical and statistical information. Full-text databases contain the complete text of the source documents comprising the database. Directory databases provide information on individuals, organizations, and services. Special-purpose databases provide specialized information. 5.1.2.3 Syndicated Services

Syndicated services are provided by companies that collect and sell common pools of data of known commercial value designed to serve a number of clients. Syndicated sources can be classified based on the unit of measurement (households/consumers or institutions). Household/consumer data may be obtained from surveys, diary panels, or electronic scanner services. Institutional data may be obtained from retailers, wholesalers, or industrial firms. 13

5.2

EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN: QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

The objective of qualitative research is to gain a qualitative understanding of the underlying reasons and motivations. The qualitative research is contrasted with the quantitative research in the following table:

Table 5.1: Qualitative vs. Quantitative Research Qualitative Research Procedures can be classified as shown below.

Figure 5.4: Qualitative Research Methods 14

The qualitative research is particularly useful where it is Inevitable (such as those involving situations of privacy, embarrassment and unwillingness), and where there is respondents inability to provide accurate answers. 5.2.1 Focus Group Discussion (FGD) Focus group is a group discussion method involving 8-12 participants led by a moderator. FGD normally lasts from 90 minutes to 2 hours. The key qualifications of a FGD moderator are summarized below: Kindness with firmness: The moderator must combine a discipline detachment with understanding empathy so as to generate the necessary interaction. Permissiveness: The moderator must be permissive yet alert to sign that the groups cordiality or purpose is disintegrating. Involvement: The moderator must encourage and stimulate inter-personal involvement. Incomplete understanding: The moderator must encourage respondents to be more specific about generalized comments be exhibiting incomplete understanding. Encouragement: The moderator must encourage unresponsive members to participate. Flexibility: The moderator must be able to improvise and alter the planned outline amid the distractions of the group process. Sensitivity: The moderator must be sensitive enough to guide the group discussion at an intellectual as well as emotional level. The procedure for planning and conducting focus groups is summarized in the figure below:

Figure 5.5: Procedure for Planning and Conducting Focus Groups It is clear that a lot of planning must be done before conducting FGDs. 15

There are several variations of Focus Groups available, which are summarized below: Two-way focus group. This allows one target group to listen to and learn from a related group. For example, a focus group of physicians viewed a focus group of arthritis patients discussing the treatment they desired. Dual-moderator group. A focus group conducted by two moderators: One moderator is responsible for the smooth flow of the session, and the other ensures that specific issues are discussed. Dueling-moderator group. There are two moderators, but they deliberately take opposite positions on the issues to be discussed. Respondent-moderator group. The moderator asks selected participants to play the role of moderator temporarily to improve group dynamics. Client-participant groups. Client personnel are identified and made part of the discussion group. Mini groups. These groups consist of a moderator and only 4 or 5 respondents. Tele-session groups. Focus group sessions by phone using the conference call technique. Online Focus groups. Focus groups conducted online over the Internet.

The advantages of Focus Group are described by several Ss such as Synergism, Stimulation, Security, Spontaneity, Scrutiny, Structure, and Speed. Several of these advantages could be attributed to the structured nature and group setting of the FGDs. The disadvantages of focus groups are described by several Ms such as: Misuse, Misjudge, and Misrepresentation. These are primarily due to the qualitative nature of the data in FGDs. 5.2.2 Depth Interview A depth interview involves in depth questioning of a single respondents by a skilled interview. There are three techniques of depth interview. The first is the technique of laddering. In laddering, the line of questioning proceeds from product characteristics to user characteristics. This technique allows the researcher to tap into the consumer's network of meanings. The second depth interview technique is that of hidden issue questioning. In hidden issue questioning, the focus is not on socially shared values but rather on personal sore spots; not on general lifestyles, but on deeply felt personal concerns. The third depth interview technique is symbolic analysis. Symbolic analysis attempts to analyze the symbolic meaning of objects by comparing them with their opposites. The logical opposites of a product that are investigated are: non-usage of the product, attributes of an imaginary non-product, and opposite types of products. 16

5.2.2 Projective Techniques The projective techniques involve unstructured and indirect form of questioning that encourages respondents to project their underlying motivations, beliefs, attitudes or feelings regarding the issues of concern. In projective techniques, respondents are asked to interpret the behavior of others. In interpreting the behavior of others, respondents indirectly project their own motivations, beliefs, attitudes, or feelings into the situation. In word association, respondents are presented with a list of words, one at a time and asked to respond to each with the first word that comes to mind. The words of interest, called test words, are interspersed throughout the list which also contains some neutral, or filler words to disguise the purpose of the study. Responses are analyzed by calculating: The frequency with which any word is given as a response; The amount of time that elapses before a response is given; and The number of respondents who do not respond at all to a test word within a reasonable period of time. In sentence completion, respondents are given incomplete sentences and asked to complete them. Generally, they are asked to use the first word or phrase that comes to mind. In story completion, respondents are given part of a story enough to direct attention to a particular topic but not to hint at the ending. They are required to give the conclusion in their own words. With a picture response, the respondents are asked to describe a series of pictures of ordinary as well as unusual events. The respondent's interpretation of the pictures gives indications of that individual's personality. In cartoon tests, cartoon characters are shown in a specific situation related to the problem. The respondents are asked to indicate what one cartoon character might say in response to the comments of another character. Cartoon tests are simpler to administer and analyze than picture response techniques. In expressive techniques, respondents are presented with a verbal or visual situation and asked to relate the feelings and attitudes of other people to the situation. In role playing, respondents are asked to play the role or assume the behavior of someone else. In third-person technique, the respondent is presented with a verbal or visual situation and the respondent is asked to relate the beliefs and attitudes of a third person rather than directly expressing personal beliefs and attitudes. This third person may be a friend, neighbor, colleague, or a typical person. The advantages of projective techniques are as follows:

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They may elicit responses that subjects would be unwilling or unable to give if they knew the purpose of the study. They are helpful when the issues to be addressed are personal, sensitive, or subject to strong social norms, and when underlying motivations, beliefs, and attitudes are operating at a subconscious level.

The disadvantages of projective technique are as follows: They require highly trained interviewers, and Skilled interpreters to analyze the responses. There is a serious risk of interpretation bias. They tend to be expensive. They may also require respondents to engage in unusual behavior.

Self-check Questions 1) Highlight various aspects of exploratory research design. Mention its advantages and disadvantages. Compare and contrast exploratory and descriptive research designs. 2) Distinguish clearly between primary and secondary data. Explain the various methods of collecting primary data and point out their relative merits and demerits. 3) What is a depth interview? What are its major advantages? 4) Briefly describe various types of projective techniques. 5.3 SUMMARY

In this lesson, we discussed two broad techniques of exploratory research design, namely, secondary data, and qualitative research. For secondary data, both internal and external sources of secondary data were discussed. Three techniques of qualitative research were discussed: focus group discussion (FGD), depth interview, and projective techniques. 5.4 REFERENCES Naresh Malhotra: Marketing Research: An Applied Orientation, Pearson Education Tull & Hawkins: Marketing Research Measurement & Methods, Prentice-Hall G.C. Beni: Marketing Research Young PV: Scientific Social Survey and Research Goode, WG & Hatt: Methods of Social Research

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___________________________________________________________________ LESSON 6 DESCRIPTIVE AND CAUSAL RESEARCH

TABLE OF CONTENTS:
6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 INTRODUCTION DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH DESIGN: SURVEY DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH DESIGN: OBSERVATION METHOD CAUSALITY AND EXPERIMENTATION SUMMARY REFERENCES

19

___________________________________________________________________ LESSON 6
6.0

DESCRIPTIVE AND CAUSAL RESEARCH

INTRODUCTION

In this lesson, we discuss the important topics of descriptive and causal research designs. In descriptive research designs, we focus on survey and observation methods. A comparison is also provided of the two types of techniques. We then discuss the concepts of causal research design by discussing causality and experimentation. Various types of experimental designs are discussed. 6.1 DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH DESIGN: SURVEY

A survey basically involves questioning respondents on behavior, intentions, attitudes, awareness, motivation, demographics/ psychographics, etc. by various modes such as verbal, written, and computer using a questionnaire. A classification of survey methods is given below.

Figure 6.1: Classification of Survey Methods 6.1.1 Criteria for Evaluating Survey Methods The following criteria are used for evaluating survey methods: Flexibility of Data Collection - The flexibility of data collection is determined primarily by the extent to which the respondent can interact with the interviewer and the survey questionnaire. 20

Diversity of Questions - The diversity of questions that can be asked in a survey depends upon the degree of interaction the respondent has with the interviewer and the questionnaire, as well as the ability to actually see the questions. Use of Physical Stimuli - The ability to use physical stimuli such as the product, a product prototype, commercials, or promotional displays during the interview. Sample Control - Sample control is the ability of the survey mode to reach the units specified in the sample effectively and efficiently. Control of the Data Collection Environment - The degree of control a researcher has over the environment in which the respondent answers the questionnaire. Control of Field Force - The ability to control the interviewers and supervisors involved in data collection. Quantity of Data - The ability to collect large amounts of data. Response Rate - Survey response rate is broadly defined as the percentage of the total attempted interviews that are completed. Perceived Anonymity - Perceived anonymity refers to the respondents' perceptions that their identities will not be discerned by the interviewer or the researcher. Social Desirability/Sensitive Information - Social desirability is the tendency of the respondents to give answers that are socially acceptable, whether or not they are true. Potential for Interviewer Bias - The extent of the interviewer's role determines the potential for bias. Speed - The total time taken for administering the survey to the entire sample. Cost - The total cost of administering the survey and collecting the data.

It is clear that methods like personal interview score high on the richness of the data collected, but score low on criterion such as cost. Internet-based interview methods score higher on speed and cost-effectiveness, but score low on parameter such as the control of the data collection environment. Similar interpretations could be drawn for other methods on other parameters. 6.2 DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH DESIGN: OBSERVATION METHOD

We first provide some basic classifications of the observation method. 6.2.1 Structured versus Unstructured Observation For structured observation, the researcher specifies in detail what is to be observed and how the measurements are to be recorded, e.g., an auditor performing inventory analysis in a store. In unstructured observation, the observer monitors all aspects of the phenomenon that seem relevant to the problem at hand, e.g., observing children playing with new toys. 6.2.2 Disguised versus Undisguised Observation In disguised observation, the respondents are unaware that they are being observed. Disguise may be accomplished by using one-way mirrors, hidden cameras, or inconspicuous mechanical devices. Observers may be disguised as shoppers or sales clerks. In undisguised observation, the respondents are aware that they are under observation. 21

6.2.3 Natural versus Contrived Observation Natural observation involves observing behavior as it takes places in the environment. For example, one could observe the behavior of respondents eating fast food in a restaurant. In contrived observation, respondents' behavior is observed in an artificial environment, such as a test kitchen. 6.2.4 Classification of Observation Methods A classification of observation methods is given below.

Figure 6.2: A Classification of Observation Methods 6.2.5 Personal Observation In personal observation, a researcher observes actual behavior as it occurs. The observer does not attempt to manipulate the phenomenon being observed but merely records what takes place. For example, a researcher might record traffic counts and observe traffic flows in a department store. 6.2.6 Mechanical Observation The mechanical observations include physical instruments such as Nielsen audiometer, turnstiles that record the number of people entering or leaving a building, on-site cameras (e.g., still, motion picture, or video), optical scanners in supermarkets, eye-tracking monitors, pupilometers, psychogalvanometers, voice pitch analyzers, devices measuring response latency, etc.

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6.2.7 Audit The researcher collects data by examining physical records or performing inventory analysis. Data are collected personally by the researcher. The data are based upon counts, usually of physical objects. Examples include the retail and wholesale audits conducted by marketing research suppliers. 6.2.8 Content Analysis Content analysis is the objective, systematic, and quantitative description of the manifest content of a communication. The unit of analysis may be words, characters (individuals or objects), themes (propositions), space and time measures (length or duration of the message), or topics (subject of the message). Analytical categories for classifying the units are developed and the communication is broken down according to prescribed rules. 6.2.9 Trace Analysis In trace analysis, the data collection is based on physical traces, or evidence, of past behavior. Some examples are listed below: The selective erosion of tiles in a museum indexed by the replacement rate was used to determine the relative popularity of exhibits. The number of different fingerprints on a page was used to gauge the readership of various advertisements in a magazine. The position of the radio dials in cars brought in for service was used to estimate share of listening audience of various radio stations. The age and condition of cars in a parking lot were used to assess the affluence of customers. The magazines people donated to charity were used to determine people's favorite magazines. Internet visitors leave traces which can be analyzed to examine browsing and usage behavior by using cookies. Relative Advantages of Observation (as compared to Survey)

6.2.10

Observation methods permit measurement of actual behavior rather than reports of intended or preferred behavior. There is no reporting bias, and potential bias caused by the interviewer and the interviewing process is eliminated or reduced. Certain types of data can be collected only by observation. If the observed phenomenon occurs frequently or is of short duration, observational methods may be cheaper and faster than survey methods. 6.2.11 Relative Disadvantages of Observation

The reasons for the observed behavior may not be determined since little is known about the underlying motives, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. Further, selective perception (bias in 23

the researcher's perception) can bias the data. Observational data are often time-consuming and expensive, and it is difficult to observe certain forms of behavior. In some cases, the use of observational methods may be unethical, as in observing people without their knowledge or consent. It is best to view observation as a complement to survey methods, rather than as being in competition with them. 6.3 CAUSALITY AND EXPERIMENTATION

We now discuss the topic of causal studies. The concept of causality is classified in the following paragraphs. A statement such as "X causes Y " will have the following meaning to an ordinary person and to a scientist. ____________________________________________________ Ordinary Meaning Scientific Meaning ____________________________________________________ X is the only cause of Y. X is only one of a number of possible causes of Y. X must always lead to Y (X is a deterministic cause of Y). The occurrence of X makes the occurrence of Y more probable (X is a probabilistic cause of Y).

It is possible to prove We can never prove that X is a that X is a cause of Y. cause of Y. At best, we can ______________________________________________________ For M.R. purposes, the causal research design is equivalent to experimentation. Experimentation is used to infer causal relationships. Causality implies that the occurrence of X (cause) increase the probability of Y (effect). There are three conditions required for causality: Co-Variation -- Extent to which X (cause) and Y (effect) vary together as per theory/ hypothesis Time order of occurrence of variables cause precedes/simultaneous to effect Absence of other possible causal factors (i.e., the factor under consideration only possible explanation, also known as the condition of control)

The following terms and concepts are used to describe causal research designs: Independent variables are also known as manipulated variables, or treatments Dependent variables measure effect of independent variables on test units Test units are individuals/organizations examined

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Extraneous variables - other than independent variables which may affect test units response Experimental setup involves the following steps: Manipulate independent variable (s) Control extraneous effects Examine effect on dependent variables Experimental design -- Set of procedures specified to conduct the experiment

As an example of experiment, consider the following: Study Effect of coupons value on redemption rate in laundry detergents Subjects shoppers entering/leaving supermarket Treatment 2 groups Rs. 5 vs. Rs. 25 Dependent variable likelihood of cashing coupons Control Base price of the product

The validity in experimentation refers to the truthfulness or correctness of the results obtained. It is of the following two types: Internal whether observed effects are really due to independent variable. This involves control of extraneous variables. External - whether generalization of experimental results possible

It is clear that there is always tradeoff between internal and external validity. The types of extraneous effects in an experiment are as follows: History (H) External events occurring with experiment Maturation (MA) changes in test units with time Testing Effects are due to experimentation Main Testing Effect (MT) the effect of a prior observation on a subsequent testing Interactive Testing Effects (IT) - the effect of a prior observation on a subsequent observation Instrumentation (I) Changes in measuring instrument or observers during experiment Selection Bias (SB) Improper assignment of test units to treatments Mortality (MO) Attrition of test units The control of extraneous effects can be done by one of the following methods: Randomization which involves random assignment of test units to treatments 25

Matching in which we compare test units on key background variables before assignment to treatments Statistical Control - in which we measure extraneous variables and adjust for them through statistical analysis Design Control which is controlling through specific experimental designs

The types of experimental designs are shown in the following figure.

Figure 6.3: Types of Experimental Designs Here, pre-experimental designs are characterised by absence of any randomization. True experimental are characterised by presence of randomization. Quasi experimental design refers to realistic field experiments. Statistical design refers to special design forms like Latin square design, etc. We explain the first three types of design in this lesson, starting with the pre-experimental designs. 6.3.1 Pre-experimental Designs We follow the notation: X - treatment, O observation, R random assignment In explaining each experimental design, we first show the experiment description in symbols, then treatment effect, and then the extraneous effects affecting that experiment. It is clear that the experimental design which is affected by lesser number of extraneous effects is better.

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6.3.1.1 X O1

One-shot case study

Treatment Effect = O1 Extraneous effects = H, SB, MO

6.3.1.2 O1 X O 2

One group pretestpost test design

Treatment Effect = O2 O1 Extraneous effects = H, MA, MT/ IT, I, SB, MO 6.3.1.3 EG: X CG: Static group design O1 O2

Treatment effect = O1 O2 Extraneous effects = SB, MO

6.3.2 True-experimental Designs We now explain true experimental designs. 6.3.2.1 EG: R CG: R Pretestposttest control group design O 1 X O2 O3 O4

Treatment Effect (TE) = (O2 - O1) (O4 O3) (O2 - O1) = TE + H + MA + IT + I + MO + MT (O4 O3) = H + MA + I + MO + MT Difference = TE + IT Extraneous effect = IT 6.3.2.2 EG: R CG: R Post-test only control group design X O1 O2 27

TE = (O1 O2) O1 = TE + H + MO O2 = H (O1 O2) = TE + MO Extraneous effect = MO 6.3.3 Quasi-experimental Designs The quasi experimental designs are explained below. 6.3.3.1 Time-series Design

O1O2O3 X O4O5O6 The advantage of this type of design is its greater realism. The disadvantages of this design are no control on history, or testing effects. 6.3.3.2 Multiple Time Series

EG: O1O2O3 X O4O5O6 CG: O7O8O9 O10O11O12 The advantage of this design, relative to only time-series design, is that it tests treatment effect in a better fashion. The limitations of experimentation in general are as follows: Experiments can be time consuming, particularly if the researcher is interested in measuring the long-term effects. Experiments are often expensive. The requirements of experimental group, control group, and multiple measurements significantly add to the cost of research. Experiments can be difficult to administer. It may be impossible to control for the effects of the extraneous variables, particularly in a field environment. Competitors may deliberately contaminate the results of a field experiment. 6.3.4 Real-life Application of Experimentation The real life application of experimentation is in test marketing, which is to test market acceptance of products, and marketing combinations. There are three types of test markets: 28

 Standard in which the company test its product in the natural environment using the cooperating stores in the national market. Controlled in which test marketing is outsourced to and outside research company Simulated in which test marketing is administered in a lab. Setting.

A selected test market should have the following qualities: Be large enough to produce meaningful projections. They should contain at least 2% of the potential actual population. Be representative demographically, with respect to product consumption behavior, with respect to media usage, and with respect to competition. Be relatively isolated in terms of media and physical distribution. Have normal historical development in the product class Have marketing research and auditing services available Should not have been over-tested Self-check Questions 1) Give a classification of various survey methods. 2) What are the requirements for inferring a causal relationship between two variables? 3) Differentiate between external and internal validity. 4) What is test marketing? What are its various types?

6.3

SUMMARY

In this lesson, we discussed the important topics of descriptive and causal research designs. In descriptive research designs, we covered survey and observation methods. A comparison was provided of survey and observation methods. We then discussed the concepts of causal research design by discussing causality and experimentation. Various types of experimental designs were also discussed. 6.4 REFERENCES Naresh Malhotra: Marketing Research: An Applied Orientation, Pearson Education Tull & Hawkins: Marketing Research Measurement & Methods, Prentice-Hall 29

 G.C. Beni: Marketing Research Young PV: Scientific Social Survey and Research Goode, WG & Hatt: Methods of Social Research

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