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Unit-Iv: Uncertainty Uncertainty: Gkmcet Lecture Plan Subject Code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

1. The document discusses uncertainty and probability in artificial intelligence, including axioms of probability, Bayes' theorem, and Bayesian networks. 2. Bayesian networks represent relationships among random variables using directed acyclic graphs with probability tables at each node, allowing efficient computation of conditional probabilities. 3. Hidden Markov models use probability distributions over tags for each word to determine the best sequence of tags for a sentence.

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Ganesh Kumar
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75 views6 pages

Unit-Iv: Uncertainty Uncertainty: Gkmcet Lecture Plan Subject Code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

1. The document discusses uncertainty and probability in artificial intelligence, including axioms of probability, Bayes' theorem, and Bayesian networks. 2. Bayesian networks represent relationships among random variables using directed acyclic graphs with probability tables at each node, allowing efficient computation of conditional probabilities. 3. Hidden Markov models use probability distributions over tags for each word to determine the best sequence of tags for a sentence.

Uploaded by

Ganesh Kumar
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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GKMCET Lecture Plan Subject code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

UNIT-IV: UNCERTAINTY Uncertainty To act rationally under uncertainty we must be able to evaluate how likely certain things are. With FOL a fact F is only useful if it is known to be true or false. But we need to be able to evaluate how likely it is that F is true. By weighing likelihoods of events (probabilities) we can develop mechanisms for acting rationally under uncertainty. Dental Diagnosis example. In FOL we might formulate

disease(p,foodStuck) L When do we stop? Cannot list all possible causes. We also want to rank the possibilities. We dont want to start drilling for a cavity before checking for more likely causes first. Axioms Of Probability Given a set U (universe), a probability function is a function defined over the subsets of U that maps each subset to the real numbers and that satisfies the Axioms of Probability 1.Pr(U) = 1 2.Pr(A) [0,1] 3.Pr(A B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) Pr(A B)

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GKMCET Lecture Plan Subject code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

Note if A B = {} then Pr(A B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) BASIC PROBABILTY NOTATION 1 Unconditional or prior probabilities 2 Conditional or posterior probabilities SEMANTICS OF BAYESIAN NETWORK

3 Kinds of inferences 4 Use of Bayesian network TEMPORAL MODEL 1 Monitoring or filtering 2 Prediction

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INFERENCE IN BAYESIAN NETWORK

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1 Representation of joint probability distribution

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GKMCET Lecture Plan Subject code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

Bayes' Theorem Many of the methods used for dealing with uncertainty in expert systems are based on Bayes Theorem. Notation:

P(A)

Probability of event A

P(A B) Probability of events A and B occurring together P(A | B) Conditional probability of event A

P (A B) = P(A | B)* P(B) = P(B | A) * P(A) therefore P(A | B) = P(B | A) * P(A) / P(B Uses of Bayes Theorem In doing an expert task, such as medical diagnosis, the goal is to determine identifications (diseases) given observations (symptoms). Bayes Theorem provides such a relationship. P(A | B) = P(B | A) * P(A) / P(B) Suppose: A = Patient has measles, B = has a rash

Then:P(measles/rash)= P(rash/measles) * P(measles) / P(rash) The desired diagnostic relationship on the left can be calculated based on the known statistical quantities on the right. Joint Probability Distribution Given a set of random variables X1 ... Xn, an atomic event is an assignment of a particular

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given that event B has occurred

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GKMCET Lecture Plan Subject code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

value to each Xi. The joint probability distribution is a table that assigns a probability to each atomic event. Any question of conditional probability can be answered from the joint.[Example from Russell & Norvig.] Toothache Toothache Cavity 0.04 0.06 0.89

Cavity 0.01

those entries are not impossible. Chain Rule

We can compute probabilities using a chain rule as follows: P(A &and B &and C) = P(A | B &and C) * P(B | C) * P(C) If some conditions C1 &and ... &and Cn are independent of other conditions U, we will have: P(A | C1 &and ... &and Cn &and U) = P(A | C1 &and ... &and Cn) This allows a conditional probability to be computed more easily from smaller tables using the chain rule.

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GKMCET Lecture Plan Subject code & Subject Name: CS2351 & AI Unit Number: 1V

Bayesian Networks Bayesian networks, also called belief networks or Bayesian belief networks, express relationships among variables by directed acyclic graphs with probability tables stored at the nodes.[Example from Russell & Norvig.]

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An earthquake can set the alarm off The alarm can cause Mary to call The alarm can cause John to call

Computing with Bayesian Networks If a Bayesian network is well structured as a poly-tree (at most one path between any two nodes), then probabilities can be computed relatively efficiently. One kind of algorithm, due to Judea Pearl, uses a message-passing style in which nodes of the network compute probabilities and send them to nodes they are connected to. Several software packages exist for computing with belief networks. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) tagger chooses the tag for each word that maximizes: [Jurafsky, op. cit.] P(word | tag) * P(tag | previous n tags) For a bigram tagger, this is approximated as:

ti = argmaxj P( wi | tj ) P( tj | ti - 1 ) In practice, trigram taggers are most often used, and a search is made for the best set of tags for the whole sentence; accuracy is about 96%.

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