Lyman, 1 Spencer Lyman Mrs. Jackie Burr English 1010-003 December 14th, 2013 BYU Football: Independence or Conference?

What if your favorite college football team went to the national championship game every year while being undefeated? Its a beautiful dream. However, dreams dont always come true. Unless, youre in a big name conference that has competition and attracts the recruits needed to get you there. This was my dream for my BYU Cougars when all of our fans were told that moving from the Mountain West Conference (9 teams, set amount of revenue every year, all playing for a Conference Championship) to an FBS Independent (set up your own schedule to play any team that agrees to play, manage how your revenue comes in, set up your own TV deal, no conference championship, one bowl game if you make it there) would put us back up as a legitimate national contender. That however has not been the case. The BYU Cougars must join a conference once again to have a shot at a national championship. BYU Footballs Success in the Mountain West Conference Justin Giles, a sports writer for the Deseret News brought up the statistic that out of the 12 years that BYU was a member of the Mountain West Conference, they claimed 140 conference championships (thats all sports not just football), which was the most out of the 9 teams in the Mountain West Conference at that time (Giles). They won 4 of 12 Conference Championships as a Football team ( two with Lavell Edwards, 2 with Bronco Mendenhall), while finishing in the AP Top 25, 5 of 12 times in their 12 years in the MWC (espn.go.com). The question is did BYU have a chance in the MWC to compete for a national championship? Even

Lyman, 2 if they went undefeated, the statistics and competition indicate no. Giles discussed this in his article: No disrespect to the MWC, but teams from that league have about the same shot at making the championship game as I have at making a hole in one in golf (probably never going to happen) (Giles). Of course this is based off of opinion from a BYU fan and writer for an LDS newspaper company. But even with an undefeated season in the MWC, the chances of BYU making the national championship game was highly unlikely.

Fig 1. A graph showing BYU's total number of Conference Championships with all sports, in comparison to all the other MWC teams. Justin Giles.

BYU Football Recruiting in the Mountain West Conference A key aspect in a team winning a national championship is the quality of recruits they attract. For example, the Alabama Crimson Tides average recruit ranks 4 out of 5 stars according to ESPNS College Football page (espn.go.com.). I compared how BYUs Recruits

Lyman, 3 matched up against the most successful schools such as Alabama, Auburn, and LSU back when BYU was in the MWC. While Alabama, Auburn, and LSUs average recruit ranked 4 out of 5 stars while recruiting even some 5 star recruits, BYU averaged 3 out of 5 stars on recruiting, with very few 4 star recruits. It is apparent that the teams with the highest quality recruits have had the most success. There is of course no way to tell how these recruits will perform when they get their chance. BYUS Kyle Van Noy was in the recruiting class of 2009 and, he was only rated as a 3 star recruit. Today he is predicted to be one of the top 5 defensive players in the NFL Draft (espn.go.com). The years that BYU had the most success, for example, the years BYU won the MWC Championship, they attracted higher quality recruits. However, the years they were not successful in the MWC, they attracted almost as many 2 star recruits as they did 3 star recruits (espn.go.com). Thus we see that the teams who compete in conferences with higher quality recruits are more successful. The fall of BYU Football in the MWC 2006 and 2007 were the most successful years in Bronco Mendenhalls tenure as head coach. BYU those 2 years had taken back to back Conference championships, finished 11-2, and finished 14th in the AP Top 25 in 2006, and 16th in 2007 (espn.go.com). Then in 2008 a very dominant #2 Utah snuck in unexpectedly, going undefeated (13-0), dominating the MWC. TCU had also been a very legitimate threat in the MWC with a poignant and dangerous defense; they then won the Conference Championship in 2009 and finished #6. BYU in 2009 did finish #12, but failed to beat TCU for the Conference Championship. 2010 was when the pillar finally gave out. BYU finished 7-6 that year, tying for 3rd in the MWC behind TCU and Utah. TCU was the only team in the MWC ranked in the AP Top 25 that year, exposing a BYU football team that went from showing dominance to mediocrity (espn.go.com). One could speculate many reasons

Lyman, 4 why BYU went from a Top 25 team, to a team that couldnt beat teams above .500. Besides being a fan, having spoken with many fans over the years, each have an opinion as to why this collapse happened. Some of them believe it was Jake Heaps (now QB for Kansas) mentality on the field, and his attitude towards players and coaches off the field. Others say it was Brandon Dolmans (Former Offensive Coordinator and now Recruiter) and his system of offense, that it didnt fit the system. Whatever it may be, there are many factors that cannot be pinned to one specific reason. BYUS move to Independence After the 2010 season, with a 7-6 performance, officials at BYU decided that it was time for change. On September 1st, 2010 Head Athletic Director Tom Holmoe officially announced BYUs leave from the MWC to start as an FBS Independent (ksl.com). The move to Independence made sense even to me at first. BYU would be able to pick their opponents if those teams agreed to play them, the games were more accessible to fans nationwide, and they were able to build a schedule that could put them in the national championship game that is if they won all of their games (KSL.com). Jay Drew, a sports writer/columnist for the Salt Lake tribune wrote a article about the deal ESPN made with BYU that would revenue 800,000-1.2 million per every BYU home game broadcasted on ESPN, the games would be re broadcasted later on BYUtv, this deal lasts through 2020 (Drew, BYU signs). The move to Independence was the right move at the time. Many articles were published in favor of this change. Lou Martin, a writer for the well known sports website bleacherreport.com stated: BYUs position as an independent makes too much sense to be abandoned at this point. A lucrative multi-year deal with ESPN and scheduled tilts with some of the countrys more storied programs have

Lyman, 5 BYU sitting pretty in several aspects, including exposure and respectability. Conference membership would lock the team into schedules with stiffer competition, which would expose the programs onfield mediocrity and shrink its already-small chances of earning a spot at the BCS table. I had the opportunity to discuss the topic of FBS Independence and others regarding BYUs football team with Jay Drew over an e-mail. I asked him To you, is it more worth it to be Independent, or play for a conference? His response to this was: For BYU, it is more lucrative to be a football independent than it was to be in the Mountain West Conference. Thats pretty cut and dried. The big contract with ESPN pays BYU much more money than it would have received in the MWC. Now, if BYU was somehow was invited to a major conference, such as the big 12, it would be more lucrative to join that conference. So, it all depends on the conference (Drew, BYU Independent). The move to independence at the time can be debated as a good or bad thing. Clearly it did make sense to make the move to independence in 2011 than to stay in the MWC another year. BYU talks with AAC (Big East) Before the move to FBS Independence, it has been confirmed that BYU did talk to the American Athletic Conference (previously the Big East Conference) for entrance. Eric Ball another writer for bleacherreport.com wrote an article pertaining to BYUs entrance into the AAC. Ralph D. Russo on twitter tweeted: AP Source: Talks between BYU and the Big East have broken off. BYU to the Big East is dead. Story upcoming (qtd. in Ball). Ball also quotes from an

Lyman, 6 anonymous source from the Salt Lake Tribune, close to the situation regarding BYU and the AAC: It is at the point where [the Big East] has made its last offer, and [BYU] doesnt agree to those terms regarding entrance. That could change in a week but it will have to come from [BYU]. The source said the deal-breaker was BYUs quest for assurances that it could either keep its existing television contracts or receive an ironclad assurance that its situation regarding television would be improved as a Big East member. Thats something [the Big East] has never done for anyone. (qtd in Ball.). Jay Drew and I also discussed this over our e-mail he said: As far as the Big East (now called the American Athletic Conference) is concerned, I do know that BYU was on the verge of joining that league a few years ago, but BYU attorneys started asking some questions about revenue distribution and television rights, questions the Big East couldnt answer appropriately, and so BYU officials changed their minds. But that ship has sailed especially with Boise State and San Diego State backing out of the league. BYU no longer has any interest in that league. (Drew, BYU Independence). So it is true that BYU was on the verge of joining the AAC, but their demands with their television deal with ESPN and revenue distribution disintegrated those talks. BYU talks with Big 12 It was confirmed that BYU and the Big 12 were having constructive discussions about admittance into the Big 12 conference. The evidence around it is not as clear as their talks with the AAC. Jay Drew also had information regarding these talks:

Lyman, 7 I do know that there were some good talks between BYU and the Big 12, and that there was mutual interest from both sides. However, the Big 12 never extended an invitation to BYU. Will that happen in the future? I would say there is a 50-50 chance. Shortly, the Big 12 is going to have to expand because other conferences are going to demand that is has a conference championship game. That will be BYUs chance. Whether or not the Big 12 looks past the no-Sunday play issue, and a few other things, remains to be seen (Drew, BYU Independence). Ryan Teeples of the Deseret News wrote a four part series of articles discussing what benefits and setbacks BYU would have joining the Big 12 Conference. This quote discusses how some schools view BYU: Whether fans and BYU brass like it or not, BYU is seen as a prima-donna. In some cases that reputation may be deserved. In others its a result of sour grapes from institutions with much weaker cash flow that BYU subsidized for decades in the WAC and MWC. In any case, reputation is a factor in the tight-knit community of academia (Teeples). Teeples concluding this article trys to show the fans that are complaining about BYU Athletic Director Tom Holmoe that his job isnt easy: The roadblocks that keep BYU out and the Big 12 from expanding are too much for Tom Holmoe-or anyone else-to overcome at present. I read many articles concerning the talks between the BYU and the Big 12. Most are redundant and consistent in the sense that they all state that the Big 12 has an issue with BYU not playing on Sundays, and BYU also wanted to talk about their TV deal with ESPN. Whatever the real reason

Lyman, 8 is, there was an interest from both sides and perhaps in the future, BYU can be a Big 12 competitor. BYUS Independent Success Today As of right near as their third season as an FBS Independent, the BYU cougars hold a 2612 record, which equals a .684 winning percentage. Their first year as an Independent they finished #25 in the AP Top 25 with a 10-3 record. The competition is much tougher against teams such as Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Boise State, Oregon State, Georgia Tech. USC, Stanford, Nebraska, and Cincinnati are scheduled in the future as well. BYU went 8-5 in 2012, and just finished up their 2013 regular season as 8-4, both bowl eligible seasons. They have been ranked in the top 25 teams defensively the last 2 seasons, with multiple players receiving NFL Draft prospectus. However, they have not been ranked the past 2 years in the AP top 25, and have managed to make bowls against teams with mediocre talent (espn.go.com). Whatever way you perceive it, statistically their success is mediocre is less successful than they were during their years in the Mountain West Conference. BYU Football: Focusing on the main issue as an Independent I have presented the statistics, facts, and opinions about BYUs previous and current success with some emphasis on failures. Lets focus on the big issue as an Independent. This issue is obvious; how is the team benefitted when they cant beat AP Top 25 teams and only the mediocre ones? As a fan personally, this has been the most frustrating issue for me. That is why I previously stated that I liked the move to an FBS Independent at the time, but time changes. The schedule is tougher, but Tom Holmoe stated this would be the right move to not only bring the games to more fans and increase our exposure, but it would give us a schedule to get back to

Lyman, 9 the Top 25 in rankings and a chance at a national championship in the future (ksl.com). Kevin McGuire for NBC Sports said in an article he wrote: BYUs chances to play in their first BCS game are still slim. Without a conference affiliation, BYU must attempt to climb up in the BCS rankings and make it practically impossible to be left out of the mix. And it is generally tougher for BYU to climb the polls and rankings the way Notre Dame can get away with (McGuire). Talking to many fans over the past few years, I have found that there is a division among us. There are those of us who are fine with 8 win seasons as long as the LDS Churchs message is being spread, while we gain exposure. Then there are those who want an undefeated season and a shot at the national championship game. Common logic presents this question to me, Wouldnt the churchs message spread even more if we actually won our big games on national TV and attracted higher recruits who arent LDS members?. Really this issue is more based off of opinion, but at the same time, it should be common sense to all fans. No FBS Independent can lose just 1 regular season game and have a shot at the national championship. But an SEC team can, take Auburn for example, since theyre in a conference with extremely talented and difficult competition, they are still in the national championship game with only 1 regular season loss (espn.go.com) BYU couldnt make a BCS bowl game with 2 losses. It all boils down to the conference youre affiliated with, and of course, the quality of recruits you attract. Jay Drew said this in our e-mail regarding recruiting as an Independent: Frankly, I dont think BYUs football recruiting has gotten better since the Cougars became independent. Remember, that coincided with Utah joining the Pac-12, and I think Utah is beating BYU for players that BYU routinely got in the

Lyman, 10 past because it is in the Pac-12. I dont see that changing until BYU gets in a conference similar to the Pac-12, such as the Big 12. I am of the opinion that BYU will never, ever be invited to the Pac-12. Thats just not going to happen. Has recruiting gotten worse? Maybe a little bitbut not much. I do think BYU coaches nowwith the new additions this past winterwill consider non-LDS players more than they have in the past (Drew, BYU Independence). Regardless if this is a matter of opinion, the success is highly unlikely without joining a conference such as the Big 12 that contains legitimate competition. Recruiting is harder because recruits feed on competition and victory. Does BYU have great competition? Absolutely, but they havent been able to defeat it as an Independent. Conclusion BYU has had great success over the years. The move from the Mountain West Conference to Independence was a wise decision at the time. However, due to the lack of recruiting, and victory against AP Top 25 competition, BYU has been less successful as an FBS Independent. It is difficult, almost impossible, to have a shot at the national championship game when they cant defeat the competition they have scheduled. Thus, BYU needs to join a Conference with high quality competition to once again be a BCS (next year college football playoff) contender.