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How To Protect Our Environment

This document discusses scenarios and their use in analyzing potential futures and policies. It provides an overview of scenarios, explaining that scenarios are not predictions but descriptions of how the future could unfold. The document then gives examples of scenarios that have been developed for different regions and timeframes. Finally, it outlines the typical steps involved in developing and analyzing scenarios, which usually involve setting goals, designing a process, and focusing on scenario content and variables.

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Sayed Mohamed
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23 views1 page

How To Protect Our Environment

This document discusses scenarios and their use in analyzing potential futures and policies. It provides an overview of scenarios, explaining that scenarios are not predictions but descriptions of how the future could unfold. The document then gives examples of scenarios that have been developed for different regions and timeframes. Finally, it outlines the typical steps involved in developing and analyzing scenarios, which usually involve setting goals, designing a process, and focusing on scenario content and variables.

Uploaded by

Sayed Mohamed
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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(How to protect our environment)


Overview
This module will help you develop scenarios and analyse them, either in terms oI the impact
they would have on existing policies, or the kinds oI policies that would be needed in order Ior
a particular scenario to unIold. The module provides the basis Ior an entire process Ior
developing and analysing scenarios.
A scenario is not a prediction oI what the Iuture will be. Rather it is a description oI how the
Iuture might unIold. Scenarios explore the possible, not just the probable, and challenge users to
think beyond conventional wisdom. They support inIormed action by providing insights into the
scope oI the possible. They also can illustrate the role oI human activities in shaping the Iuture,
and the links among issues, such as consumption patterns, environmental change and human
impacts. In this way, they make use oI the general DPSIR Iramework.
Scenarios were Iirst used Iormally aIter World War II as a method Ior war game analysis. Their
value was quickly recognized, and the use oI scenarios Ior a number oI other strategic planning
applications developed. Today, scenario development is used in a wide variety oI diIIerent
contexts, ranging Irom political decision making to business planning, and Irom global
environmental assessments to local community management.
There are hundreds oI examples oI scenarios developed during the last 30 years or so. A small
number oI examples are selected here to illustrate the range oI scenarios that have been
developed, Irom speciIic country/regional exercises to global visions oI the Iuture, covering a
range oI time Irames Irom 10 to 100 years. The illustrations are the Mont Fleur scenarios Ior
South AIrica, the GCC and the World Scenarios, the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3 and
GEO-4) scenarios and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios.
A range oI processes has been used to produce scenarios. We can distinguish among these
according to three overarching themes: project goal, process design and scenario content. Goals
might include raising awareness, stimulating creative thinking and gaining insight into the way
societal processes inIluence one another. An overriding goal is usually to directly or indirectly
support decision making. Process design addresses aspects such as scope and depth oI the
analysis, the degree oI quantitative and qualitative data used, and choices among stakeholder
workshops, expert interviews or desk research. Scenario content Iocuses on composition oI the
scenarios (i.e., on the variables and dynamics in a scenario and how they interconnect).
While many diIIerent processes have been used to develop and analyse scenarios, most involve
steps similar to ones used in this module, although emphasis on particular steps varies. The
steps used in this module are grouped as Iollows:

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