This document discusses scenarios and their use in analyzing potential futures and policies. It provides an overview of scenarios, explaining that scenarios are not predictions but descriptions of how the future could unfold. The document then gives examples of scenarios that have been developed for different regions and timeframes. Finally, it outlines the typical steps involved in developing and analyzing scenarios, which usually involve setting goals, designing a process, and focusing on scenario content and variables.
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How To Protect Our Environment
This document discusses scenarios and their use in analyzing potential futures and policies. It provides an overview of scenarios, explaining that scenarios are not predictions but descriptions of how the future could unfold. The document then gives examples of scenarios that have been developed for different regions and timeframes. Finally, it outlines the typical steps involved in developing and analyzing scenarios, which usually involve setting goals, designing a process, and focusing on scenario content and variables.
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(How to protect our environment)
Overview This module will help you develop scenarios and analyse them, either in terms oI the impact they would have on existing policies, or the kinds oI policies that would be needed in order Ior a particular scenario to unIold. The module provides the basis Ior an entire process Ior developing and analysing scenarios. A scenario is not a prediction oI what the Iuture will be. Rather it is a description oI how the Iuture might unIold. Scenarios explore the possible, not just the probable, and challenge users to think beyond conventional wisdom. They support inIormed action by providing insights into the scope oI the possible. They also can illustrate the role oI human activities in shaping the Iuture, and the links among issues, such as consumption patterns, environmental change and human impacts. In this way, they make use oI the general DPSIR Iramework. Scenarios were Iirst used Iormally aIter World War II as a method Ior war game analysis. Their value was quickly recognized, and the use oI scenarios Ior a number oI other strategic planning applications developed. Today, scenario development is used in a wide variety oI diIIerent contexts, ranging Irom political decision making to business planning, and Irom global environmental assessments to local community management. There are hundreds oI examples oI scenarios developed during the last 30 years or so. A small number oI examples are selected here to illustrate the range oI scenarios that have been developed, Irom speciIic country/regional exercises to global visions oI the Iuture, covering a range oI time Irames Irom 10 to 100 years. The illustrations are the Mont Fleur scenarios Ior South AIrica, the GCC and the World Scenarios, the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3 and GEO-4) scenarios and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. A range oI processes has been used to produce scenarios. We can distinguish among these according to three overarching themes: project goal, process design and scenario content. Goals might include raising awareness, stimulating creative thinking and gaining insight into the way societal processes inIluence one another. An overriding goal is usually to directly or indirectly support decision making. Process design addresses aspects such as scope and depth oI the analysis, the degree oI quantitative and qualitative data used, and choices among stakeholder workshops, expert interviews or desk research. Scenario content Iocuses on composition oI the scenarios (i.e., on the variables and dynamics in a scenario and how they interconnect). While many diIIerent processes have been used to develop and analyse scenarios, most involve steps similar to ones used in this module, although emphasis on particular steps varies. The steps used in this module are grouped as Iollows: