18.

05 Lecture 3
February 7, 2005

n!
Pn,k = (n−k)! - choose k out of n, order counts, without replacement.
k
n - choose k out of n, order counts, with replacement.
n!
Cn,k = k!(n−k)! - choose k out of n, order doesn’t count, without replacement.

§1.9 Multinomial Coefficients

s1 , s2 , ..., sn - n elements such that n1 in group 1, n2 in group 2, ..., nk in group k.

n1 + ... + nk = n

� �� �� � � �� �
n n − n1 n − n1 − n2 n − n1 − ... − nk−2 nk
× ... ×
n1 n2 n3 nk−1 nk

n! (n − n1 )! (n − n1 − n2 )! (n − n1 − ... − nk−2 )!
= × × × ... × ×1
n1 !(n − n1 )! n2 !(n − n1 − n2 )! n3 !(n − n1 − n2 − n3 )! nk−1 !(n − n1 − ... − nk−1 )!
� �
n! n
= =
n1 !n2 !...nk−1 !nk ! n1 , n2 , ..., nk
These combinations are called multinomial coefficients.

Further explanation: You have n “spots” in which you have n! ways to place your elements.

However, you can permute the elements within a particular group and the splitting is still the same.

You must therefore divide out these internal permutations.

This is a “distinguishable permutations” situation.

Example #1 - 20 members of a club need to be split into 3 committees (A, B, C) of 8, 8, and 4 people,

respectively. How many ways are there to split the club into these committees?

� �
20 20!
ways to split = =
8, 8, 4 8!8!4!

Example #2 - When rolling 12 dice, what is the probability that 6 pairs are thrown?

This can be thought of as “each number appears twice”

There are 612 possibilities for the dice throws, as each of the 12 dice has 6 possible values.

In pairs, the only freedom is where the dice show up.

� �
12 12! 12!
= �P= = 0.0034
2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 (2!)6 (2!)6 612

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Example #3 - Playing Bridge

Players A, B, C, and D each get 13 cards.

P(A − 6�s, B − 4�s, C − 2�s, D − 1�) =?

� 13 �� 39 �
6,4,2,1 7,9,11,12 (choose �s)(choose other cards)
P= � 52
� = = 0.00196
13,13,13,13
(ways to arrange all cards)

Note - If it didn’t matter who got the cards, multiply by 4! to arrange people around the hands.
Alternate way to solve - just track the locations of the � s
�13��13��13��13�
6 4
P= �52�2 1

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Probabilities of Unions of Events:

P(A ⇒ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(AB)

P(A ⇒ B ⇒ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(AB) − P(BC) − P(AC) + P(ABC)

§1.10 - Calculating a Union of Events - P(union of events)

P(A ⇒ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(AB) (Figure 1)

P(A ⇒ B ⇒ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(AB) − P(BC) − P(AC) + P(ABC) (Figure 2)

Theorem:

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 n
� � � �
P( Ai ) = P(Ai ) − P(Ai Aj ) + P(Ai Aj Ak ) − ... + (−1)n+1 P(Ai ...An )
i=1 i�n i<j i<j<k

Express each disjoint piece, then add them up according to what sets each piece

belongs or doesn’t belong to.

A1 ⇒ ... ⇒ An can be split into a disjoint partition of sets:

Ai1 ∞ Ai2 ∞ ... ∞ Aik ∞ Aci(k+1) ∞ ... ∞ Acin

To check if the theorem is correct, see how many times each partition is counted.

� 1 ), P(A2 ), ..., P(A

i<j P(A A
i j ) − 2 times

(needs to contain Ai and Aj in k different intersections.)

Example: Consider the piece A ∞ B ∞ C c , as shown:

This piece is counted: P(A ⇒ B ⇒ C) = once.

−P(AB) − P(AC) − P(BC) = subtracted once.

+P(ABC) = counted zero times.

The sum: 2 - 1 + 0 = 1, piece only counted once.

Example: Consider the piece A1 ∞ A2 ∞ A3 ∞ Ac4

P(A1 ) + P(A2 ) + P(A3 ) + P(A4 ) = counted k times (3 times).

� �k �
as follows: i<j<k = counted 3 times (1 time).
� � � � � � � �
total in general: k − k2 + k3 − k4 + ... + (−1)k+1 kk = sum of times counted.

To simplify, this is a binomial situation.

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 k � �
� � � � � � � � �
k k i (k−i) k k k k
0 = (1 − 1) = (−1) (1) = − + − ...
i=0
i 0 1 2 3

0 = 1 − sum of times counted

therefore, all disjoint pieces are counted once.

** End of Lecture 3

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