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Counting Probablity 3 Conditional

1) Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred. It is calculated as the probability of both events occurring divided by the probability of the first event. 2) A tree diagram can be used to visually represent dependent events and calculate conditional probabilities. 3) An example is given of calculating the probability of completing a crossword given whether the Times or Daily is bought.

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85 views5 pages

Counting Probablity 3 Conditional

1) Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred. It is calculated as the probability of both events occurring divided by the probability of the first event. 2) A tree diagram can be used to visually represent dependent events and calculate conditional probabilities. 3) An example is given of calculating the probability of completing a crossword given whether the Times or Daily is bought.

Uploaded by

MissPhilip
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conditional Probability

Recap: Independent events. If events A and B are independent, then the probability of B happening does not depend upon whether A has happened or not. Therefore P(B | A) = P(B | A )=P(B)

and

Probability of B given that A has o!!urred P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) .

A tree diagra

!an be drawn"

Dependent events: If A and B are dependent events, the probability of B happening will depend upon whether A has happened or not. #e therefore have to introdu!e !onditional probabilities in the tree diagra (as shown below)"

The rule for !o bining probabilities for dependent events is P(A and B) = P(A) $ P(B | A) This is e%uivalent to saying P(B | A) = P(A and B) P(A)

Example: &very orning I buy either The Ti es or The 'ail. The probability that I buy The Ti es is ( and the probability that I buy The 'ail is ). If I buy The Ti es, the probability that I !o plete the !rossword is * + , whereas if I buy The 'ail the probability that I !o plete the !rossword is , + . a) -ind the probability that I !o plete the !rossword on any parti!ular day. b) If I have !o pleted the !rossword, find the probability that I bought The 'ail. The tree diagra is"

.otation" T = buy The Ti es a) -ro the tree diagra ,

' = buy The 'ail

/ = !o plete !rossword

P(!o plete !rossword) = P(T and /) 0 P(' and /) =

1 , 2 + = *3 *3 *

b) The probability that I bought The 'ail given that I !o pleted the !rossword is given by , P(' and /) * P(' | /) = = *3 = 2 P(/) + *

Example 2: 3.24 of the population !arry a parti!ular faulty gene. A test e5ists for dete!ting whether an individual is a !arrier of the gene. In people who a!tually !arry the gene, the test provides a positive result with probability 3.6. In people who don7t !arry the gene, the test provides a positive result with probability 3.32. If so eone gives a positive result when tested, find the probability that they a!tually are a !arrier of the gene. 8et 9 = person !arries gene P = test is positive for gene The tree diagra then loo:s as follows" . = test is negative for gene

#e want to find P(9 | P) =

P(9 and P) P(P)

;owever, P(P) = P(9 and P) 0 P(9< and P) = 3.3336 0 3.33666 = 3.323=6 3.3336 = 3.3=*1 (to > signifi!ant figures) 3.323=6 ?o there is a very low !han!e of a!tually having the gene even if the test says that you have it. Therefore, P(9 | P) = .ote" This e5a ple highlights the diffi!ulty of dete!ting rare !onditions or diseases.

Past Examination Question: (OCR ?tudents have to pass a test before they are allowed to wor: in a laboratory. ?tudents do not reta:e the test on!e they have passed it. -or a rando ly !hosen student, the probability of passing the test at the first atte pt is 2@>. An any subse%uent atte pt, the probability of failing is half the probability of failing on the previous atte pt. By drawing a tree diagra or otherwise, a) show that the probability of a student passing the test in > atte pts of fewer is *1@*B, b) find the !onditional probability that a student passed at the first atte pt, given that the student passed in > atte pts or fewer. !olution: 8et P = pass test - = fail test

a) ?o P(pass in > atte pts or fewer) = 2@> 0 ,@6 0 +@*B = *1@*B as re%uired b) 8et X stand for when a student passes the test. #e need P( X = 2| X >) = P(X = 2 and X >) . P(X >)

But P(X = 2 and X C >) is the sa e as Dust P(X = 2). Therefore P( X = 2| X >) =
2 *1 > *B

6 *1

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