Population and Development
Population and Development
Structure
17.0 Objectives
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Over-population and Economic Development
17.0 OBJECTIVES
After studying this unit you should be able to
17.1 INTRODUCTION
Perhaps it will take little time for you to agree with the proposition that human beings are a vital resource for
economic development. But to specify the relationship between economic development and growth of
population, it will be difficult to come out with an unambiguous answer. To your surprise, you will find
economies of many third world countries, notwithstanding a higher growth rate of their population, are the
least developed economically. Some of the most developed countries, on the contrary, will give you very
low rate of population growth. Such a scenario of the present-day world, therefore, will compel you to think
seriously in terms of a negative relationship between economic development and population growth.
17.2 OVER-POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Essentially, what you are contemplating in the form of a relationship is the phenomena of so-called `Over-
population'. it depicts a situation, where human population has increased beyond the means of subsistence.
Thus a higher growth area in terms of population does not provide the basic needs of life such as food, cloth
and shelter. The third world countries have become the victim of such an eventuality The fear of over-
population is not new. Economist Malthus, as early as 1798, had expressed strong apprehensions on
population growth over-taking output growth. He thought that nature would reduce the excess number by
causing calamities and diseases. However, technological inventions subsequently helped increase
production and the seriousness of the problem was over-looked. The implications of population growth
resurfaced in recent years with the persistence of poverty and hunger in many parts of world .The over-
population perception has given rise to a number of prescriptions that aim at bringing down the growth rate
of population in the third world countries. It is asserted that such a move would allow the benefits of
economic development to reach the poor masses.
Table 17.1
East Asia
Hong Kong 2.5 1.4
Indonesia 2.1 1.8
South Korea 2.6 1.1
Malaysia 2.8 2.6
Singapore 2.3 2.2
Thailand 3.1 1.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ghana 2.3 3.4
Kenya 3.2 3.8
Sierra Leone 1.7 2.4
Tanzania 2.7 3.1
South Asia
Bangladesh 2.5 2.3
India 2.3 2.1
Nepal 1.9 2.6
Pakistan 2.8 3.1
similar to Hong Kong and Thailand, was evident in the remaining countries of East Asian group. In contrast
to these, sub-Saharan Africa showed an increase in the rate of population growth. As might have been seen,
Ghana recorded an increase from 2.3% per annum during 1960-70 to 3.4 % per annum in 1980-90. Other
countries of this group also showed the same tendency as Ghana.
In South Asia group, population growth was not uniform. While Bangladesh and India succeeded in
bringing down the growth rate of their population marginally, the remaining two, Nepal and Pakistan,
followed the tendency of sub-Saharan Africa group. Thus, from a growth rate of 1.9% per annum, during
1960-70, Nepal went on to 2.6% per annum in the succeeding decade. Pakistan also followed Nepal, as its
population growth during 1960-70 was 2.8% per annum but increased to 3.1% per annum subsequently.
2) Write a note on the relationship between population growth and economic development
3) Fill in the blanks choosing suitable word (or words) from the brackets given below:
a) For today's India the ………… faster/slower) population grows, the………… (grimmer brighter)
becomes her struggle to survive.
b) The World Summit on Social Development held in Copenhagen, 1995, examined issues of
poverty, employment an…………(social integration, population planning, women's participation in
society).
c) The relationship between population and development ....... (has become/has not become) an
issue of world wide debate since the 1950s.
d) The United Nations World Population Conference held in ................(Geneva Bucharest) in 1974
adopted a Plan of Action.
4) Why is it believed that the third world countries are over- populated? (write in about 100 words)
a) People who believe that poverty is the result of over-population, often point to empirical
evidence of East Asian countries. ( )
c) Poor people and high birth rate are not generally related . ( )
d) An initial reaction on the relationship between population and development is likely to have
problems.( )
6) Compare the change in recent years' population growth rate between East and South Asian countries
However, it must be kept in mind that, the reasons for this change are very uncertain. There is no simple,
continuous and quantitative relationship been economic development and the decline in birth and death
rates.
i) The first stage is characterized by high birth and death rates. These features give rise to low population
growth. To understand the forces that generate this situation you have to remember a society whose
economy is dominantly agrarian and level of technology is traditional. High death rates in such a society
could be due to chronic malnutrition, famines and epidemics, inadequate medicinal and health services and
poor living condition. High birth rates are influenced by the socio-cultural system (i.e. illiteracy, early
marriage, traditional values, religious beliefs, demand for family labour, etc.). The difference between high
birth and death rates becomes narrow resulting in one percent per annum or less growth rate of population.
Sometimes, it may even tend to stagnate at a particular level.
ii) In the second stage of demographic transition, death rate begins to decline. There is beginning of the
process of economic development. Better nutritional components are included in food and living condition
improves. However, the birth rates continue to remain high. Consequently, there is an increase in the growth
rate of population and it tends to grow quite rapidly.
iii) During the third stage when the country's economy is properly developed, the already low death rates
decline further only slightly. Birth rate, on the contrary, goes down rapidly. The low birth and death rates are
now stabilized resulting in a low population growth rate.
It is expected that today's developing countries, if successful in their development efforts, would also reach
the third stage of demographic transition.
The high population growth rates are due to high birth rate and fast declining death rates due to better
sanitation and health facilities. However, the capacities to absorb increasing manpower are much weaker.
Furthermore, the process of economic development tends to be more capital intensive under modern
technological conditions, and hence, has less potential of employment generation in the short run. Since the
total size of the population is already large, there is an urgency for speedy achievement of demographic
transition from high birth rate to low birth rate resulting in lower population growth.
1. Fill in the gaps selecting appropriate word/ words given in the brackets.
2. Identify whether (he following statements are true (T) or false (F).:
d) The long term historical trend in population is to maintain slow population growth rates.
3 Explain the demographic transition and its three stages in about 150 words.
ii) Problem of utilisation of manpower. Better educated manpower aspires for occupations of greater
prestige, which are opened up by the new development efforts. Because of its capital intensive nature, the
ability, of the new economy for employment generation becomes restricted. Simultaneously, it renders
many of the old occupations out of day and redundant. As a result, under-employment and unemployment,
including unemployment of educated persons, increases. There is thus wastage of even developed human
capital.
iii) Over-strained infrastructure. Facilities such as housing, transportation, health care, and education
become inadequate. The worst symptoms of congestion in every aspect of living conditions are manifested
in the urban areas. In countries such as India, a situation of "over urbanisation" prevails which puts
unbearable strain on urban amenities. Overcrowded houses, slums and unsanitary localities, traffic
congestion and crowded hospitals have become common features in the developing countries.
1) Pressure on land and other renewable natural resources. Common properties such as forest and water
are over-exploited. This results in deforestation and desertification with permanent damage to the renewable
resources.
v) Increased Cost of Production. Human ingenuity and technological advancement makes it possible to
increase production of goods and services. But, it must be kept in mind that, the cost of production of the
basic necessities of life, such as food, increases when the population is growing fast and worse lands are
brought into cultivation with costly irrigation etc.
vi) Inequitable Distribution of Income. Both at the international and national levels income disparities
increase. The increase in gross national product (GNP) is greatly reduced in per capita terms on account of
the rapidly growing population. In the face of a rapidly growing population, the major concern of a
developing country tends to be focused more on economic growth as such. Consideration of unequal
distribution of income are pushed to background. So inequalities within the country tend to widen further.
i) One explanation is based on the observation or experience of the present-day developed countries.
According to this, higher the level of economic development of a country, the lower is the level of fertility.
It must be emphasized that this explanation assumes that in developed countries children are regarded by
parents as durable consumer goods. With economic development parents become very much
conscious about the economic costs and benefits of raising children. This attitude has a distinct effect on
fertility and the size of the family.
ii) Another explanation regarding the influence of economic development on fertility takes into account the
love and affection which parents have for their children. This is known as 'Affective Aspects of Motivation'
for child bearing. According to this explanation, in limiting the size of their family, the parents are
influenced by their consideration for the future career of their children. Thus, it is not so much the
disincentive of increasing cost resulting in reduced economic returns from having a large family, but the fear
that the large size of the family would reduce their ability to provide adequately for the future of their
children, which is important. This fact discourages parents from having a large family.
It must be remembered that during the early phase of demographic transition, children inherit the social
status of the parents. Because, at that time, family is the unit of production. But with economic development
the economy becomes organized. As a result of the emergence of the organized economy children have to
achieve their social status outside their homes, and parents become very much aware of the new
responsibility of equipping their children for a satisfactory economic adjustment. The problem of
satisfactory economic adjustment tries to ensure that children do not fall below the social status of the
parents. This explanation confirm our general experience that persons coming from a larger family tend to
fare worse than their parents, in their careers. Therefore, parents who are aware of these now tend to have
smaller families because they want to train and equip their children for fulfilling occupational roles outside
their homes.
b) In India, majority of the population is………… (literate/illiterate), and as such, the burden
of school age population has become………(bearable/ unbearable).
c) A rapidly growing population…………(over-strains/facilitates) the available infrastructure
and opportunities
3) Select five adverse consequences of rapid growth of population from the following:
i) The rapidly growing population due to high birth and rapidly declining death rates give rise to
distorted age structure. ( )
ii) In a developing economy, where death rate has fallen fast, and the decline in birth rate is very slow,
the percentage of children in the population tends to fall.( )
iii) People in developed countries have much less children than people in developing countries
iv) opportunity Costs of raising many children are much less in developed countries than
indeveloping ones.( )
v) During the earliest phase of demographic transition children inherited the social status of
the parents.( )
5) Is economic development the most effective way of reducing birth rate ? Write your answer
in about 100 words.
The major problem faced by the developing countries is to bring down their birth rates, i. e. fertility.
Therefore, understanding of the relationship between development and fertility becomes very significant.
There are experts who think that unless fertility is first restricted, sustained economic development is not
possible. At the other extreme there are others who assume that fertility is dependent upon economic
development. This means that we should concentrate our efforts on development planning, which would, in
turn, reduce fertility. Thus, it seems that the nature of the relationship between fertility and development is
reciprocal. As the exact nature of this relationship is yet to be fully established, the proper course for a
developing country would be to follow integrated policies in regard to both population and development.
Age-group: Part of the population put together because of their age level being comparable with respect to
some characteristics and/or purpose. For instance, an age group could be all persons aged from 0-14 years
or another could be all persons aged sixty-five and more.
Age-sex distribution: The number and percentage of males and the number or percentage of females in
each group of the population.
Age-structure: The number of people or percentage of the population in each age group. In developing
countries proportion of young people below 15 years is high; in developed countries, because of long life
expectancy and low birth rates proportion of old people of 65 years of age, or more, is increasing.
Birth Rate or Crude Birth Rate: The number of births in a year per thousand persons in the total
population. (Not to be confused with growth rate).
Burden of Dependency: Concentration of the population of developing countries in the young, non-
productive ages, a situation which is less favourable to production and proportionately more burdensome
with respect to consumption and social overhead investment. Similar concentration takes place in the
developed countries in the old age-group of 65 years and more, who are also retired from the labour force
and have to depend on the rest of society.
Capital Intensive: A form of production in which the proportion of capital employment is large relative to
labour.
Capital-Labour Ratio: The ratio of capital to labour in an economy, (an industry or a firm).
Death Rate or Crude Death Rate: The number of deaths in a year per thousand persons in the total
population.
Demographic Transition: The historical shift of birth and death rates from high to low levels. The decline
of mortality usually precedes the decline in fertility thus resulting in rapid population growth during the
transition period. It has been devised with particular reference to the experience of developed countries
which have passed through the process of industrialisation and urbanisation.
Demography: (Greek: demos (people) + graphic (study), The scientific study of human populations,
including their size, composition, distribution, density, growth and other demographic and socio-economic
characteristics, and the causes and consequences of changes in these factors.
Dependency Ratio: The proportion of dependents in the population relative to the working population.
Desertification: The spread of like conditions in and or semi-arid areas due either to careless human
interference or to climate change. Often, it is the result of a combination of increasing human pressures and
spell of rainless lean years.
Durable Consumer Goods: Goods purchased by consumer for use over a relatively long period, e.g. cars,
washing machines, television, VCR, furniture etc.
Infrastructure: The underlying structure of services and amenities needed to facilitate industrial,
agricultural and other economic development, called economic infrastructure. It includes the provision of
transport communications, power supplies, water etc. investment in infrastructure is considered necessary
for economic development. There are social infrastructures also, indirectly associated with economic
development, such as health and education facilities.
Labour Intensive: A form of production requiring a high proportion of labour in relation to capital.
Malthus Thomas R (1766-1834) English clergyman and economist famous for his theory (expounded in the
"Essay on the Principle of Population") that the population of the world tends to increase faster than the food
supply and that unless fertility is controlled, famine, vice, disease and war must serve as natural checks on
population.
Occupation Structure: The distribution of economically active population i.e., working population into a
large number of employment or productive activities; Such activities are broadly categorized into primary,
secondary and tertiary sectors representing agriculture industry and services respectively.
Population Explosion: Expression used to describe the 20th century world wide trend of enormous and
rapid population growth resulting from a world birth rate much higher than the world death rate.
Population Growth Rate: The rate at which the population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due
to natural increase and net migration, expressed as a percentage of the base population. Natural rate of
population increase is the gap between birth and death rates in India, the combination of still high fertility
and much reduced mortality (death rate) led to population growth rate of around 2 per cent or more a year.
Population growth rate increased as death rate has continued to fall.
Population Increase: The total population increase resulting from the interactions of births, deaths, and
migration in a population in a given period of time.
Population Policy: Explicit or implicit measures instituted by a government to influence population size,
growth, distribution or composition.
Population Problem: For most developing countries, it is largely a problem of rapid growth rates. Rapid
growth rates in population are problematic in two respects: (a) they may slow down economic growth, and
(b) under certain conditions, they may increase income inequalities and worsen the condition of the poorer
groups.
Sex Distribution: The number of males in the population compared to that females.
Subsistence Level: The Standard of living below which human life cannot be maintained.
Under-employment: The employment of a worker in a job that either does not offer sufficient hours of
work to get him his due personal income or the income it fetches is too low for the satisfaction of his basic
needs even though he works full time.
Underdeveloped Countries (Third World or Developing or Less Developed): Those countries which for
some reasons have been slow in developing their economic resources with the result that their peoples have
a much lower standard of living than that enjoyed in the more economically advanced countries of Europe
and North America
Under-development: The lack of self-generating force or dynamic (or the presence of counter-productive
forces) in the economy, also marked by the underdeveloped social conditions of existence.
Unemployment: The difference between total employed workers and the labour force
(persons 15 years older, but less than 65 years, looking for work). This number as ratio of the labour force is
the unemployment rate.
Urbanisation: The process of becoming urban. In general usage urbanisation is associated with the
concentration of population in towns and cities. As a demographic phenomenon, urbanisation is interpreted
as a process involving the absolute and relative growth of towns and cities within a defined area. Usually,
they are identified as centres of social change with different attitudes, values and behaviour patterns. These
places are modified in the particular milieu of the urban place, characterised by its size, its density, and the
heterogeneity of its inhabitants. An urban area is usually supposed to spread its characteristics to the rest of
the society of a country or region by process of diffusion, which, however, may not always happen,
particularly in countries with colonial legacy.
Young Population: A population with a relatively high proportion of children, adolescents, and young
adults, and thus a high growth potential.
United Nations (1982): Population of India: Country Monograph Series No. 10, Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Chap 5 (pp107-108), Chap 8 (pp 176-187).
5) a) T
b) T
c) F
d) T
1) a) b)
c) takes, cannot
d) difficult
2) a) T
b) T
c) F
d) F
2) a) employment,
b) illiterate, unbearable,
c) over-strains,
d) over-urbanisation,
e) dependent.
3) i), v), vi), viii), ix).