The Credit Cloud: U.S.

Consumer Sectors Could Suffer As The Population Ages

Primary Credit Analysts: Michael F Scerbo, New York (1) 212-438-7858; [email protected] Ronald M Barone, New York (1) 212-438-7662; [email protected] Secondary Contact: David P Wood, New York (1) 212-438-7409; [email protected] U.S. Chief Economist: Beth Ann Bovino, New York (1) 212-438-1652; [email protected] U.S. Sector Economist: Jennelyn U Tanchua, New York (1) 212-438-4436; [email protected]

Table Of Contents
Factors Spurring The Consumer Economy Short-Term Risk Factors For The Economy and Consumer Spending How Aging and Related Costs Erode Disposable Income How Are The Components Of Consumer Financing Performing? U.S. Consumer Companies' Ratings Outlooks Have Improved Markedly Since Early 2009 Projected 2013-2014 Revenue And EBITDA Trends Are Mixed Appendix I: Sector-By-Sector Summary Outlooks Through 2014 Related Criteria And Research

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The Credit Cloud: U.S. Consumer Sectors Could Suffer As The Population Ages
(Editor's Note: Stress in the eurozone, global fiscal and budgetary gridlock, uncertainty surrounding central bank monetary policies, and robust corporate issuance conditions fueled by investors' thirst for yield continue to generate storm clouds over the global financial landscape. At this critical juncture, will the financial storm be blown to sea or will darker clouds begin to roll in? Through a series of reports in 2013 titled "The Credit Cloud," Standard & Poor's Ratings Services aims to provide insight on the competing forces that can influence corporate credit quality and alter the fragile equilibrium that currently exists in the global corporate credit landscape.) Despite persistent softness in the U.S. economy, most consumer sectors have been enjoying sufficient momentum and ratings stability, which we expect to last for the balance of 2013 and throughout 2014--assuming the recent federal government shutdown and debt ceiling scare and further fiscal negotiations in early 2014 do not significantly undermine consumer spending. But after the middle of the decade, rising health care costs for individuals and Americans' need to increase savings for retirement will create growing and significant headwinds for real consumer discretionary income--and for the growth prospects and credit quality of consumer-related industries. (See Americans Remain Woefully Unprepared For Retirement, July 15, 2013). We are already seeing material growth in health care insurance deductibles and co-pays as employers increasingly limit their contributions to workers' health care costs, and as the influence of health care exchanges escalates. (Watch the related CreditMatters TV segment titled, "How Age-Related Costs Could Weaken The Credit Quality Of U.S. Consumer Companies," dated Nov. 4, 2013.) Overview The aging of the U.S. population will increasingly weigh on personal discretionary income growth as the decade progresses, creating downward pressure on U.S. consumer sector credit quality. Personal spending should be sufficient to support ratings stability for most consumer related companies through 2014. Pressure on discretionary income will be increasingly driven by rising individual health care costs, possible cutbacks in Medicare coverage and Social Security, and baby boomers whose income levels will fall significantly due to retirement and inadequate savings.

Prior to the government shutdown, consumer confidence had improved to a limited extent because of steady, albeit slow, economic and employment growth and strengthening personal balance sheets, with household debt down significantly since the Great Recession. Yet consumer spending, which has been the major contributor to economic expansion, is being significantly constrained by the lack of meaningful growth in real personal disposable income. Consumers are being very selective in their spending as a result, and a bifurcated growth pattern in the consumer economy, with two distinct tracks, has emerged this year: Track 1: The consumer subsectors that are the major contributors to economic growth are those selling "big-ticket" discretionary items, with sales being driven by the unleashing of pent-up demand--as consumers have felt more comfortable undertaking major purchases on credit while interest rates remain low.

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The Credit Cloud: U.S. Consumer Sectors Could Suffer As The Population Ages Track 2: The lack of real household income growth has slowed the growth in sales and profits of many companies involved in smaller-ticket discretionary products. This has been reflected in flat credit card borrowing this year. Subsectors where we expect to continue seeing stronger U.S. revenue growth through 2014 relative to other consumer industries include homebuilders, large home appliance makers, home-improvement retailers, automakers, and auto retailers. We believe the shutdown has increased the chances of the Fed waiting until 2014 to start tapering bond purchases. (See: U.S. Economic Forecast: Dawn Of The Debt (Ceiling), Oct. 15, 2013 ). Assuming inflation remains tame, the Fed will likely start raising its policy rate sometime in 2015 when the unemployment rate finally dips below 6.5%. Even if interest rates remain relatively low in the next few years, we believe better job and personal income growth will be needed to sustain the housing recovery beyond 2014.

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We expect retailers that have greater reliance on smaller-ticket discretionary sales--including "big-box" discount stores and electronics and department stores, as well as restaurants--to see anemic sales and EBITDA growth trends through 2014. Recent earnings from some prominent big-box and department store retailers reflect the weakness in this segment.

Factors Spurring The Consumer Economy

The consumer economy accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, and Americans' spending--while selective--has helped offset the slowing effect on GDP growth of sequestration and related public sector expenditure cuts. In Standard & Poor's base-case forecast for the U.S. economy, consumer spending is projected to advance 2.0% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014. Increasing home prices, a slowly recovering jobs market, stock markets that have reached record levels in recent months, and reduced debt levels are all contributing to stronger household balance sheets. Prior to the government shutdown, consumers had been spending more, despite extremely low real disposable income growth--which we project to fall to 0.5% this year from 2.0% in 2012. Importantly, the negative impact of stagnating personal income levels is being partially offset by the improvement in the availability of consumer financing and borrowing levels, and the falling savings rate, which we are forecasting in our base case to decline to 4.4% this year from 5.6% in 2012. Rapidly rising property prices prior to the crash boosted consumer confidence and Americans' willingness to increase spending by using home equity credit and credit card debt. While home prices are improving, they have not yet recovered enough to allow consumers to again borrow significantly against the equity in their homes. This is one reason that consumer spending is at a lower level than in 2005-2007. Despite this constraint, auto loans and new home mortgages have shown solid growth rates. Consumer financing supply has grown with the improving health of bank balance sheets and structured finance. However, we expect consumption growth will not only slow but may also reverse itself as the population ages and individuals are forced to save more as retirement looms. Another risk for disposable income and savings growth is the possibility that interest rates will remain relatively low versus historical averages for an extended period, if the government finds it necessary to spur the economy and contain borrowing costs. This would lead to consumers' income from savings accounts and bonds remaining low.

Short-Term Risk Factors For The Economy and Consumer Spending

Our base-case forecast for U.S. 2013 GDP growth is 1.6%, and 2.5% in 2014. We believe the government shutdown has shaved at least 0.6% off annualized fourth-quarter 2013 GDP growth and taken $24 billion out of the economy. Weak economic and employment growth continue to undermine a stronger recovery in the consumer economy. Real U.S. GDP growth averaged an annual 2.4% in the past three years, the lowest for any post-recessionary period since World War II. While the slowly improving employment picture might appear to be a positive for consumers, the benefits are being undermined by structural problems in the labor market, such as:

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The Credit Cloud: U.S. Consumer Sectors Could Suffer As The Population Ages Of the 8.6 million jobs lost between December 2007 and early 2010, many higher-paying positions are unlikely to be replaced. A material proportion of new employment creation has been in low paying jobs in sectors such as retail and hospitality; A broader measure of labor underutilization--total unemployed plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons--stands at 13.6% (not seasonally adjusted) according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates. Further, record levels of student debt from mushrooming college costs are casting a shadow over consumer spending.

How Aging and Related Costs Erode Disposable Income

We believe the following factors will combine to materially erode discretionary income and the credit metrics of companies in consumer industries: Rising individual health care costs--including co-pays, deductibles, and health insurance premiums--are likely to erode consumer spending power as employers increasingly reduce their contribution to company provided coverage. In addition, under the Affordable Care Act, individuals with no health insurance will be required to purchase coverage, which will cut into their discretionary income. Possible government cutbacks in Medicare coverage/reimbursement, cuts in Social Security payments, or pushing back the age individuals are eligible for these benefits, could materially weaken discretionary income for consumers over 65 year old. Aggregate household income growth will come under further pressure as the working percentage of the population shrinks in comparison to the percentage of retirees--as baby boomers increasingly hit retirement age. A further wildcard is the risk of tax increases to fund Medicare and Social Security, as the ranks of claimants mushroom. Income and sales taxes may also have to be increased on a shrinking workforce to support the retired population and other government expenditures.

How Are The Components Of Consumer Financing Performing?

Amid the housing market recovery, new mortgages for home purchases have increased substantially in 2013. However, the home mortgage refinancing boom, which was helpful for consumer spending in recent years, has largely ended. Among the nonhousing components of consumer debt, auto loans have continued to rise rapidly, in line with very strong car sales, but credit card debt growth has remained nearly flat over the last three years.

U.S. Consumer Companies' Ratings Outlooks Have Improved Markedly Since Early 2009
In aggregate, 17% of ratings in consumer industries had negative outlooks or CreditWatches in September 2013, versus 52% at March 31, 2009 (see Table 1). At September 2013, the industries with the healthiest ratings outlooks were automakers, auto retailers, and homebuilders, all of which had no negative issuer rating outlooks or CreditWatches--reflecting in part the strength in auto sales and the housing market recovery. The sector with the highest level of negative outlooks, at 22%, is media and entertainment, due mainly to the negative effect of competition from electronic media.

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Table 1

U.S. Consumer Sector Ratings' Outlooks/CreditWatches At September 2013 And March 2009
Percentage Distribution --September 2013-Stable Auto Manufacturers Auto Retailers Auto Suppliers Consumer Branded Nondurables Consumer Durables Homebuilders Leisure & Sports Media & Entertainment Retail & Restaurants 33% 60% 74% 76% 79% 88% 71% 72% 83% Negative 0% 0% 11% 15% 12% 0% 15% 22% 13% Positive 67% 40% 15% 8% 6% 12% 14% 5% 4% Developing 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% Stable 0% 0% 18% 59% 42% 7% 37% 39% 52% --March 2009-Negative 100% 80% 77% 36% 42% 93% 61% 56% 43% Positive 0% 0% 0% 4% 8% 0% 2% 5% 5% Developing 0% 20% 5% 1% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Projected 2013-2014 Revenue And EBITDA Trends Are Mixed

Table 2 incorporates our aggregate revenue and EBITDA projections for 2013-2014 for rated issuers in consumer subsectors. As with ratings outlooks, one industry showing relative weakness versus other consumer sectors in 2012-2014 for revenue growth is media and entertainment (see Table 2). We expect homebuilders to continue their strong 2012 revenue and profit performance through 2014--underpinning our positive issuer ratings outlooks. Projected aggregate industry EBITDA growth in 2013 and 2014 is expected to remain healthy for automakers and auto suppliers.
Table 2

2012-2014 Revenue And EBITDA Percentage Growth For Consumer Companies*

% Branded Nondurables Revenue 2012 EBITDA 2012 Revenue 2013 EBITDA 2013 Revenue 2014 EBITDA 2014 3.5 (2.1) 2.9 8.3 2.9 5.6 Automotive ** 2.0 3.0 5.5 5.9 4.4 8.7 Auto Retailers 13.1 16.6 6.5 3.4 6.5 10.3 Media & Entertainment 1.9 5.5 2.7 5.3 2.5 3.9 Lesiure & Sports 3.0 2.7 2.5 4.8 3.7 5.1

Durables 2.0 0.3 6.8 20.4 3.4 7.0

Retail 5.7 4.7 5.4 6.9 6.1 7.4

Home-builders 25.7 102.7 26.3 45.4 23.6 30.6

*Aggregate U.S. 2012 actual and 2013 and 2014 projected consumer subsector data for rated issuers. **U.S. automakers and suppliers.

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Appendix I: Sector-By-Sector Summary Outlooks Through 2014

Consumer staple, personal, household, and durable goods
We expect the ratings on U.S. consumer nondurables issuers (including food, beverage, and household products companies) as well as those on durables manufacturers (major home appliances/white goods, furniture, home improvement products, and small appliances) to be fairly stable for the remainder of 2013 and into the first half of 2014--assuming no major setbacks in the economic recovery and a long-term fiscal resolution is reached in Washington. Many issuers in these subsectors continue to cut costs, increase cash flows, and improve liquidity, enabling them to weather the ongoing slow economic recovery. We project consolidated revenues across the consumer nondurables and durables sector will increase modestly in 2014 from slightly improved volumes and innovation. Moderating input cost inflation, partially offset by increased promotional activity, is likely to result in margins remaining flat compared to the prior year. Growth for the mature and highly competitive consumer staple and household products categories is likely to be tempered by continued private-label competition in some categories and a more cost-conscious consumer.

Retailers and restaurants

While U.S. retail sales numbers are not yet available for September owing to the federal government shutdown, company earnings and guidance indicate that same-store sales figures will likely remain between 0% and 1% for the month. This weakness is similar to that present in recent months, including August, when U.S. retail sales rose 0.2%--which reflected weak back-to-school sales. We project that many U.S. retail and restaurant issuers will report flat same-store sales growth in 2013. High unemployment and payroll taxes are curbing spending for middle- and low-income consumers, while recent stock market highs should support affluent shopper spending, although market volatility bears watching. We anticipate continued stronger results from discounters and home improvement stores, with flatter spending at electronics and department stores. Retail subsectors demonstrating weakness of late include specialty apparel and restaurants. The majority of our ratings in these subsectors were in the 'BB' or 'B' category as of mid-October 2013, and business risk is "vulnerable" to "weak" because of slow consumer traffic or the lack of new product introductions. Our outlook for the ratings in these subsectors is largely stable with a slight negative bias.

Homebuilders
The limited supply of new and existing homes for sale in many U.S. markets and a shift in product mix to higher-priced move-up and luxury homes have caused a jump in homebuilders' average selling prices so far in 2013. In addition, the decline in housing prices from peak levels and the historically low mortgage rates have contributed to increased home affordability, which has boosted buyer demand despite modest job and income growth over the last year. However, we are of the opinion that sustaining the housing recovery beyond the next 12 to 18 months will require stronger job and income growth. Housing supply will likely increase from current very low levels, and higher mortgage rates and an increase in affordable single-family housing rentals could dampen buyer demand. Rising home prices and the limited supply of homes for sale have contributed to healthy revenue and earnings growth for most U.S. homebuilders through the first half of 2013. Despite our expectations that revenue and EBITDA growth

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will remain strong over the next 12 to 18 months, improvement in credit metrics will likely be more measured as homebuilders continue to tap the debt markets to fund sizable land and inventory investments. As such, our base-case ratings outlook for U.S. homebuilder credit quality for the remainder of 2013 and 2014 is generally stable. We expect supply and demand for single-family housing to remain favorable for builders compared with historical levels through 2014--given that the recent government shutdown and debt ceiling negotiations did not put a material dent in consumer confidence. Homebuilders that target primarily entry-level and first-time homebuyers may be affected more by the rise in rates unless they are able to quickly adjust product type or pricing.

Automakers and auto suppliers

We believe the steepest part of the recovery of the U.S. auto industry from the 2008-2009 collapse is complete, given that recent sales figures have consistently been significantly higher than our estimate of replacement levels (about 13 million units per annum). Light-vehicle sales in the U.S. declined 4.2% year over year in September, mostly because the historically high-selling Labor Day weekend fell in August (for reporting purposes) instead of September. We still believe consumers will continue to replace aging vehicles with new models, supported by low interest rates for the balance of 2013 and through 2014. We estimate that year-over-year sales growth for the fourth quarter of 2013 will improve about 9%, roughly in line with the first nine months of 2013. Many consumers will continue to downsize their vehicle choices and the housing market recovery will continue boosting demand for full-size pickups. Rising domestic light vehicle sales have been a key contributor to Ford and GM's performance surge, and was a major reason for our raising the issuer credit rating on Ford to 'BBB-' from 'BB+' on Sept. 6, 2013, and revising our outlook on the 'BB+' corporate credit rating on GM to positive on the same date. However, looming over the U.S. auto industry is the risk that the federal government shutdown and debt ceiling negotiations may hurt auto sales in the final quarter of the year. Auto suppliers are benefiting from the robust level of car production in the North America, which is supporting our generally favorable outlook for U.S.-based component manufacturers (74% stable; 15% positive). We expect raw material costs, which account for the largest portion of component producers' expense base, to remain relatively flat through 2014 due to slack demand and weak momentum in the global economy. Growth in revenues and profits is being constrained outside the U.S. by the eurozone's auto market problems.

Auto retailers
We expect U.S.-based auto retailers to show stable to improving credit measures through 2015 because of higher light-vehicle volumes, which we forecast will expand revenues, earnings, and cash flow. We project light-vehicle sales to expand at a 4.2% compound annual growth rate from 2012 through 2015 despite volatile consumer sentiment and high unemployment. Factors driving new vehicle sales growth continue to include available consumer credit, an aging fleet (the average age of cars on the road is nearly 11 years), a proliferation of attractive models that include new safety and infotainment technology, and high used vehicle prices (which tilt the consumer's purchasing decision toward new versus used). Still, the volume of used vehicle sales in any given year is much larger than for new vehicles, so to mitigate the potential volatility of new vehicle sales, auto retailers have focused on expanding used vehicle sales, improving throughput of their parts and services operations (which have very high profit margins), and expanding finance and insurance revenues.

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On the cost side, auto retailers have automated enterprise-wide dealer management services and customer relations management, using their scale and scope to control costs and generate revenue from customer service initiatives. Also, the reduction of automakers' U.S. capacity since 2009 has curtailed the use of harmful price incentives to move inventory, which in the past eroded that brand's residual value. A potential risk to our scenario of stable to improving credit measures is the increased pace of mergers and acquisitions that picked up in 2010. Still, growth through acquisitions is an integral part of the retail consolidator's business model, enhancing scale over time. We believe the rated retailers will employ disciplined pricing for future acquisitions given the experience of writing down some goodwill during latest recession.

Media and entertainment

With economic growth struggling to gain a more solid footing in 2013, ad spending--historically highly correlated with the economy--is showing only scattered signs of improvement thus far this year. Under our base-case scenario, we expect total 2013 ad spending to decline by about 0.5% over 2012, largely because of the absence of election and Olympic spending that occurred in 2012.We believe the strongest growth will continue to be in Internet display advertising, Internet search, and cable networks. However, there are wide disparities in the fundamentals, earnings performance, and credit risk profiles of the various subsectors. The weakest from a business risk standpoint are newspapers and other publishing, where 14 out of 17 rated issuers have either "weak" or "vulnerable" profiles--in a significant number of instances due to the ever-mounting competition from electronic media. Across all of media and entertainment, downgrades decelerated relative to upgrades in the third quarter of 2013, and now stand at 2 to 1 versus upgrades year to date, reflecting gradual economic expansion and market receptivity to speculative-grade issuance--although pressure on the lowest rated companies remains. This represents an improvement from 2012, when downgrades were 2.3 to 1 versus upgrades.

Gaming, lodging, and leisure

Our base-case outlook for 2013 for the U.S. gaming, lodging, and leisure sector overall remains slightly positive. However, we are cautious on our outlook for the cruise industry following multiple ship incidents at Carnival and given the eurozone's continuing economic challenges. Other key credit themes in 2013 include consolidation in the gaming sector, and an active transaction market and high returns to shareholders given good anticipated revenue per available room growth in the lodging sector.

Related Criteria And Research

U.S. Economic Forecast: Dawn Of The Debt (Ceiling), Oct. 25, 2013 Americans Remain Woefully Unprepared For Retirement, July 15, 2013 Stronger Prices Lift U.S. Homebuilders, But Better Job And Income Growth Is Needed For Long-Term Recovery, June 18, 2013

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