506

lEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 2, May 1990

DEMAND-SI3E MANAGEMENT IMPACT ON THE T R A N S M I S S I O N AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Timothy S . Yau, Nonmember W i l l i a m M. Slnith, S r . Member E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e 2alo Alto, C a l i f o r n i a Gary H u f f , Nonine,nber Lawrence J . Vogt, Member Southerri E l e c t r i c I n t e r n a t i o n a l A t l d n t a , Georgia
t?.

H. Lee W i l l i s , S r . Member
Ues tinghouse E l e c t r i c Corp. ? i t t s b u r g , Pennsylvania

Abstract T h i s paper describes a n E P R I sponsored p r o j e c t the primary o b j e c t i v e o f which i s t o assess t h e impact on the transmission and d i s t r i b u t i o n system due t o the implementation o f demand-side managernent (DSM) programs. The paper reviews t r a d i t i o n a l T&D p l a n n i n g methods and then focuses on procedural changes necessary t o f u l l y i n t e g r a t e DSM s t r a t e g y a n a l y s i s w i t h the system p l a n n i n g process. T e s t procedures and r e s u l t s a r e discussed f o r a study conducted a t a h o s t i l t i l i t y . Several DSM s t r a t e g i e s were analyzed t o assess the impacts on a T&D system s e r v i n g a l a r g e m e t r o p o l i t a n area. Key Words: Demand Side Management, Planning, D i s t r i b ~ t i o n Planning, Load Load Research. INTRODUCTION Most Demand-Side Management (3SM) programs i n i t i a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y a r e m o t i v a t e d by t h e e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n o f generation and f u e l resources and/or enhanced customer value i n the use o f e l e c t r i c ity. The impact o f these DSM programs on the T&D system has e i t h e r been completely i g n o r e d o r t r e a t e d I t i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y c l e a r as a minor issue. t h a t such an approach i s n o t c o s t e f f e c t i v e . Indeed, t h e study r e s u l t s presented i n t h i s paper i n d i c a t e t h d t s u b s t a n t i a l savings can be r e a l i z e d and unnecessary c o s t s avoided i f DSM programs a r e planned w i t h T&D b e n e f i t s i n c l u d e d a s an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f the overall objectives. T h i s paper examines the f o l l o w i n g issues: How s i g n i f i c a n t a r e t h e T&D savings t h a t can be r e a l i z e d through DSM programs? What procedures should one use impact o f DSivl on the T&D system? to study the Transmi ssion Forecasting,

2.

E x i s t i n g procedures f o r the p l a n n i n g o f the TSD system r e q u i r e o n l y minor m o d i f i c a t i o q s i n o r d e r t o p r o p e r l y assess the impacts o f DSM proA s i m p l i f i e d screening procedure has grams. been developed and s u c c e s s f u l l y tested. A f t e r s u c c e s s f u l l y t e s t i n g t h e m o d i f i e d T&D p l a n n i n g procedure by a case-study u t i l i t y , the u t i l i t y adopted the procedure f o r i n t e g r a t e d demand-side and T&D planning.

3.

Demand-Side Management O p p o r t u n i t i e s A fundamental premise f o r implementing DSM i s to change the shape o f e l e c t r i c a l l o a d [l]. Six load shape o b j e c t i v e s have been i d e n t i f i e d as: Peak C l i p p i n g Valley F i l l i n g Load s h i f t i n g S t r a t e g i c Conservation S t r a t e g i c Load Growth F l e x i b l e Load Shap?

How does one t e s t t h e v a l i d i t y o f the procedure i n an user environment?

Based on the r e s u l t s o f t h i s examination, concluded t h a t :

1.

i t was

The TAD savings can be very s i g n i f i c a n t i f DSM programs a r e planned t o take advantage o f the many o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r e f f i c i e n t use o f the T&D system.

A t the time Nhen the u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y f i r s t pioneered these DSM l o a d shape s t r a t e g i e s , undoubt e d l y , the primary o b j e c t i v e was t o achieve savings i n f u e l o r c a p a c i t y a t the generation l e v e l . However, those were the times when the U n i t e d S t a t e s was f a c i n g h i g h f u e l c o s t s and g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y shortages. Today the environment has changed. There a r e adequate g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i n most r e g i o n s ( e x c e p t t h e Northe a s t ) o f the i l n i t e d States, and gas and o i l p r i c e s have dropped t o p r e - o i l embargo l e v e l s i n r e a l terms, b u t t h e r e a r e general shortages i n transmission and d i s t r i b u t i o n c a p a c i t i e s i n many u t i l i t y systems. As a matter o f fact, t o t a l c a p i t a l expenditure f o r transm i s s i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n i n 1982 and the n e x t few Generation y e a r s w i l l exceed those o f generation. c a p i t a l expenditure by e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s w i l l be f u r t h e r d i l u t e d by p a r t i c i p a t i o n from the independent power producers. Therefore, the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r u t i l i t i e s t o r e a l i z e savings through DSM programs has been s h i f t i n g from generation t o t r a n s m i s s i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o do so f o r the n e x t few years. An i n i t i a l examination o f the s i x DSM l o a d shape o b j e c t i v e s r e v e a l s these p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t s to the T&D system:
DSM OBJECTIVES

T&D BENEFITS Defer c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n Increase u t i l i z a t i o n Minimize average losses Defer c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n Increase u t i l i z a t i o n Minimize average losses Defer c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n Increase u t i l i z a t i o n Increase u t i 1i z a t i o n Minimize average losses Defer c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n Increase u t i 1 iz a t i o n

Peak C l i p p i n g Valley F i l l i n g Load S h i f t i n g

89 TD 384-9 PWRD A paper recommended and approved by the IEEE Power System E n g i n e e r i n g Committee of t h e I E E E Power E n g i n e e r i n g S o c i e t y f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t t h e LEEE/PES 1989 T r a n s m i s s i o n and D i s t r i b u t i o n ConEerence, 7 , 1989. Manuscript New O r l e a n s , L o u i s i a n a , A p r i l 2 s u b m i t t e d October 1 4 , 1988; made a v a i l a b l e f o r p r i n t i n g J a n u a r y 1 3 , 1939.

S t r a t e g i c Conservation S t r a t e g i c Load Growth F l e x i b l e Load Shape

0885-8950/~/0500-0506$01.00 8 1990 IEEE

I t can be observed t h a t the type o f b e n e f i t s a c h i e v a b l e a t the T&D l e v e l s a r e q u i t e s i m i l a r t o those of the g e n e r a t i o n system. Since the TSD system comprises more than h a l f o f the t o t a l c a p i t a l expense, accounts f o r more than 90% o f system losses, and causes more than 80% o f a l l outages, the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r s i g n i f i c a n t savings a r e very r e a l . There have been a few s t u d i e s i n the p a s t t h a t focused on the ilnpact o f DSM programs on the T&D I n general, most o f these s t u d i e s supported system. the premise t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t T&D b e n e f i t s can be But r e a l i z e d through c a r e f u l l y planned DSM programs. these s t u d i e s a l s o proved t h a t t h e task o f d e f i n i t i v e l y q u l n t i f y i n g T&D savings c o u l d be enorrnously d i f f i c u l t t o achieve and t h e r e s u l t s (magnitude ?nd the types o f savings) tend t o be very dependent on the system c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t h e p l a n n i n g procedures used.

5 miles
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F i g u r e 2.

S p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f customer classes.

Key F a c t o r s i n ilnderstanding T&D Impacts I n o r d e r t o understand the impact o f DSM programs on t h e T&D system, one woiuld need t o examine the major f a c t o r s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e t o the c o s t s and/or savings.

1. Load Shape Behavior and Coincidence o f Peaks. T u r r e n t l y , most i)SM s t r a t e g i e s a r e designed t o achieve l o a d shape o b j e c t i v e s a t t h e system l e v e l . To r e a l i z e the f u l l b e n e f i t s o f DSM a t t h e T&D l e v e l , the DSM l o a d shape o b j e c t i v e s must be r e d e f i n e d a t the mny d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f t h e T&D system. This i s necessary because T&D equipment a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f a power system see d i f f e r e n t l o a d shapes [2, 31. To s i m p l i f y t h e design requirements o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n system, d i s t r i b u t i o n engineers express the changes i n the l o a d shapes a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s by a coincidence curve which r e p r e s e n t s t h e change i n t h e peak l o a d per customer as a f u n c t i o n o f the number o f customers served by a p a r t i c u l a r p i e c e o f T&O equipment as shown i n F i g u r e 1 a l s o shows how DSM programs may F i g u r e 1. cause s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n the coincidence curve, thereby changing the requirements o f the T&D system.

3. Feeder Reswitching. Another f a c t o r t h a t a f f e c t s the impact o f DSM on the T&D system i s the i n h e r e n t f l e x i b i l i t y o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n and subtransmission system t o r e c o n f i g u r e t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s e r v i c e areas by r e s w i t c h i n g , i.e., by recombining segments t o f o r m new s e r v i c e areas. T h i s f l e x i b i l i t y a l l o w s the TSD system t o absorb some o f the changes t h a t a r e the r e s u l t o f DSM s t r a t e g i e s . Understanding the impact o f DSM programs on the T&L) system r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a b l y more e f f o r t than I n cases where a those on the g e n e r a t i o n system. number o f DSM o p t i o n s have to be evaluated, the task o f e v a l u a t i n g t h e impact o f each and every one o f the DSM o p t i o n s on t h e T&D system becomes v i r t u a l l y impractical. I n t e g r a t i o n o f T&D Planning and DSM A n a l y s i s The process o f a n a l y z i n g DSM impacts on t h ? TSD system has been broken down i n t o f o u r steps:

1. Load Shape Development 2. Small Area Load F o r e c a s t i n g

3. D i s t r i b u t i o n System P l a n n i n g and E v a l u a t i o n

4. Transmission System Planning and E v a l u a t i o n

Since DSM d i r e c t l y impacts the l o a d shape of a p a r t i c u l a r c l a s s o f customers, the f i r s t s t e p i n any DSM a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s the d e t a i l e d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e l o a d shapes o f d i f f e r e n t classes o f customers. The i m p a c t o f a DSM s t r a t e g y on t h e l o a d shapes should be determined e i t h e r by p i l o t experiments o r by A number o f computer programs computer s i m u l a t i o n s . a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s task. The second step i n the a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t customer classes. For some u t i l i t i e s , t h i s step m y be a major departure from c o n v e n t i o n a l p l a n n i n g practice. For some u t i l i t y systems, d i s t r i b u t i o n and t r a n s m i s s i o n p l a n n i n g can be performed by e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e l o a d s by means o f growth f a c t o r a p p l i e d t o p r e s e n t loads as seen by the feeders, substations, o r A more e f f e c t i v e procethe subtransmi s s i o n system. dure f o r e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e loads i s an e v a l u a t i o n o f l a n d use. Zoning board a c t i v i t i e s , l a n d use maps, and a e r i a l photos a r e examples 3 f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t can be used to determine geographical d i s t r i b u t i o n o f growth DSM p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s t h a t the d i s t r i b u potential. t i o n and t r a n s m i s s i o n planners take t h i s one step I t r e q u i r e s the b r e a k i n g up o f the p l a n n i n g further. area i n t o very small area segments. W i t h i n each segment, the composition o f d i f f e r e n t customer c l a s s e s needs t o be determined. F i g u r e 3 i l l u s t r a t e s how customer counts a r e combined w i t h l o a d shapes t o develop small area l o a d magnitl;des and shapes. Load d e n s i t y m u l t i p l i e r s expressed i n KVA per acre can be used so t h a t the l o a d shapes can be i n p u t as h o u r l y u n i t s o f the peak hour.

0 '

10 100 1000 Number o f Reridenlisl Customer3 i n Group

F i g u r e 1.

Change i n c o i n i c i d e n c e curve due t o USM o p t i o n s A , B, and C.

2. Geographic ( S p a t i a l ) L o c a t i o n s o f Customers. Customer c l a s s e s a r e n o t spread e v e n l y over a u t i l i t y ' s s e r v i c e area, b u t i n s t e a d a r e each concentrated A DSM i n c e r t a i n l o c a l i t i e s , as shown i n F i g u r e 2. program aimed a t one c l a s s w i l l r a k e i t s changes i n those l o c a t i o n s , i m p a c t i n g o n l y t h e T&D equipment s e r v i n g those areas. Therefore, t o f u l l y understand the impact o f a DSM s t r a t e g y , t h e r e must be s u f f i c i e n t l y accurate r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the d i f f e r e n t customer classes. Unfortinately, t h i s i s n o t t h e standard p r a c t i c e f o r t r a n s m i s s i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n p l a n n i n g i n the U n i t e d States. Fortunately, however, the l o a d research i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t would be r e q u i r e d t o a l l o w such r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e to most u t i l i t i e s .

508

For more i n f o r m a t i o n on the SFA technique, r e f e r t o r e f e r e n c e 3.

please

G u l f Power Company T e s t Case Gul f Power Company o f Pensacola, F1o r i d a , was s e l e c t e d as the case-study u t i l i t y t o t e s t the a p p l i c a t i o n o f the SFA program as a DSM screening t o o l . For e v a l u a t i o n purposes, a d e t a i l e d system optimizat i o n a n a l y s i s was conducted f o r each DSM s t r a t e g y t h a t wds subjected t o t h e SFA ,nethodology. Several w i n t e r and summer DSM o p t i o n s a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f penetrat i o n f o r a t o t a l o f 25 i n d i v i d u a l s t r a t e g i e s illere assessed. I n a d d i t i o n , m u l t i p l e DSM o p t i o n s were combined t o achieve tillo o b j e c t i v e s : maximum summer l o a d r e d u c t i o n and minimized thermal storage impact. SFA Screening Assessment The r e s u l t s o f the comparison between SFA and d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s a r e shown i n F i g u r e 5. F i g u r e 3. Small area l o a d development.

.
The process f o r conducting a d e t a i l e d T&D system p l a n n i n g a n a l y s i s of DSM impacts i s shown i n F i g u r e 4. The changes i n the magnitude o f small area loads, which r e f l e c t t h e e f f e c t s o f the DSM s t r a t e gies, a r e subjected t o system p l a n n i n g expansion/ m o d i f i c a t i o n c r i t e r i a i n order t o redesign the T&D A system t o adequately serve t h e changed load. thorough a n a l y s i s considers such f a c t o r s as l o a d i n g o f T&D components, voltage regulation, switching c a p a b i l i t i e s , system s t a b i l i t y , system losses, etc. The impact of DSM s t r a t e g i e s can be e s t a b l i s h e d by comparing t h e p r e s e n t w o r t h value o f T&D expenses, i n c l u d i n g l o s s e s through t h e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n f o r t h e As base ( n o DSM) case, w i t h the v a r i o u s DSM cases. s t a t e d e a r l i e r , t h i s i s a very time-consuming process.
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Please note t h a t i d e n t i c a l vslues from each method i s i n d i c a t e d by p o i n t s t h a t l i e on a 45 degree l i n e passing through the o r i g i n . As can be seen, the SFA method g i v e s a f a i r l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f impacts i n n e a r l y a l l cases. SFA i s p a r t i c u l a r l y Also, the a c c u r a t e i n the r a n k i n g o f DSM s t r a t e g i e s . SFA method represents a considerable savings i n p e r sonne 1 r e sources. Study Plan

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F i g u r e 4.

I n t e g r a t e d DSM and T&U planning.

S p a t i a l Frequency A n a l y s i s Wethodology (SFA) The s p a t i a l frequency a n a l y s i s methodology i s e s s e n t i a l l y a screening methodology t o a l l o w the plann i n g engineer t o assess a l a r g e number o f DSM o p t i o n s t o screen o u t those o p t i o n s t h a t a r e n o t economic. I t can a l s o be used t o assess f o r each DSM o p t i o n t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a number o f implementation s t r a t e gies. Another very i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n of t h e SFA method i s t h a t i t g i v e s the planner an e x c e l l e n t pers p e c t i v e on t h e changes t o t h e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i y n o f the load. Such i n f o r m a t i o n enhances the planners use of t h e i r i n s i g h t s and judgment i n the f i n a l design.

1. Development o f Small Area Customer Database. A ] the C i t y o f Pensacola and a major p o r t i o n o f the surroundi n g county o f Escambia, F l o r i d a . lltiliziny aerial photos, an i n v e n t o r y o f customers was conducted on a 40-acre g r i d basis. About 100 hours i s r e q u i r e d t o complete t h i s procedure. Approximately 9300 small areas vJere coded w i t h data on the r e s i d e n t i a l , comm e r c i a l , and i n d u s t r i d l s e c t o r s segregated i n t o 9 l a n d use classes: low d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l , medium and h i g h d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l , apartments, l i g h t commercidl and malls, p r o f e s s i o n a l b u i l d i n g s , h i g h r i s e b u i l d i n g s , 1i g h t and medium i n d u s t r y , warehouses, heavy industr:. G u l f Power Company's l o a d research data was u t i l i z e d t o c o n s t r u c t customer c l a s s l o a d shapes f o r the peak summer and w i n t e r days. 2. DSM S t r a t e g y Development. DSM l o a d shapes were c o n s t r u c t e d f o r each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g DSM s t r a t e g i e s :
Heat Pumps Water Heater C o n t r o l Weatherization A i r Conditioning Control

509

I n a d d i t i o n t o the above, two combined s t r a t e g i e s were a l s o i n c l u d e i n the e v a l u a t i o n :

DSM

N e a t h e r i z a t i o n combined w i t h Cool Storage, Water Heater Control, and A i r C o n d i t i o n i n g C o n t r o l t o achieve maximum sdmmer l o a d r e d u c t i o n Thermal storage combined C o n t r o l and Weatherization Storage impact. w i t h Water Heater t o minimize Thermal

3. A n a l y s i s o f I n d i v i d u a l DSM S t r s t e g i e s .
Heat Pumps. The h e a t pump scenario c o n s i s t e d o f modeling the p e n e t r a t i o n o f h e a t pumps, a l o n g w i t h improved w e a t h e r i z a t i o n , i n t o b o t h s i n g l e f a m i l y and mu1 t i u n i t d w e l l i n g s i n t h e Pensacola study area. Heat pumps r e p r e s e n t a n e t a d d i t i o n o f l o a d onto the G u l f power system, because they r e p r e s e n t a substantial increase i n the w i n t e r e l e c t r i c heating l o a d ( t h e p r e s e n t customer base has about 30% e l e c t r i c heat). As a r e s u l t , h i g h p e n e t r a t i o n s o f h e a t pumps r e s u l t i n increases i n b o t h energy s a l e s and study area peak load. The b a s i c t r e n d o f h e a t pumps i s t o i n c r e a s e b o t h w i n t e r and summer peak loads. However, the w i n t e r peak increases a t a f a s t e r r a t e as h e a t pump penetrat i o n i s increased. T h i s i s due t o t h e g r e a t e r c o i n c i f each h e a t pump i n the w i n t e r ( t h e u n i t dent load ; has more heat" to move i n w i n t e r , and operates s l i g h t l y l e s s e f f i c i e n t l y i n c o l d ambient temperatures). The n e t r e s u l t i s t h a t h e a t pumps tend t o s h i f t the p r e s e n t summer peak toward mid-morning ( 7 a.m.) i n w i n t e r . A 19% p e n e t r a t i o n o f h e a t pumps c r e a t e s a w i n t e r peak equal t o the base summer peak (591 MVA). The system i s s t i l l summer peaking, however, f o r t h e 19% p e n e t r a t i o n increases the base summer t o 600 MVA. A t a 25% p e n e t r a t i o n , t h e w i n t e r and summer peaks a r e equal (605 MVA), and the Pensacola t e s t area becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y w i n t e r peaking as more h e a t pumps A 100% p e n e t r a t i o n o f h e a t pumps nudges a r e added. summer peak up t o 646 MVA (a 9.5% increase), b u t boosts w i n t e r peak by 278 MVA t o 816 MVA (a 51% incredse) The impact on the power d i s t r i b u t i o n system i s f a i r l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d f o r p e n e t r a t i o n s up t o 80% As shown i n F i g u r e 6, as the peak l o a d increases, the r e q u i r e d r e i n f o r c e m e n t o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n i s r o u g h l y p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e n e t change i n peak load. However, as p e n e t r a t i o n approaches 80%, t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n l o s s e s decrease. The n o n l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n the h e a t pump case i s n o t due to b o t h a change ii d i s t r i b u t i o n chara c t e r and changes i n the annual l o a d f a c t o r .

- t f i r s t (as summer and w i n t e r peaks become e q u a l ) , and then worsens a s the system becomes very s h a r p l y A t h i g h p e n e t r a t i o n s t h e urinter peak w i n t e r peaking. exceeds the summer peak by over 150 MVA. However, the d i s t r i b u t i o n system designed t o serve t h i s h i g h w i n t e r peak i s very s t r o n g ( h i g h c a p a c i t y ) , and hence, basica l l y low l o s s . Peak time l o s s e s a r e n o t experienced o f t e n enough to "count" as much as when summer-winter peaks a r e s i m i l a r , and the very e f f i c i e n t system serves the lower, summer peaks a t very low l e v e l s of losses. The n e t e f f e c t i s t h a t a t very h i g h penetrat i o n s o f h e a t pumps (above 80%), annual d i s t r i b u t i o n l o s s e s go down. A t 100% p e n e t r a t i o n , the o r i g i n a l 859 MVA d i s t r i b u t i o n system has been expanded t o 1119 MVA--a 30% i n c r e a s e i n c a p a c i t y spread somewhat homogeneously throughout t h e Pensacola area. The h e a t pump case c a l l s f o r homogenous r e i n forcement o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n system. The a d d i t i o n s o f s u b s t a t i o n capacity, f o r example, are almost e n t i r e l y made t o e x i s t i n g substations, even a t 100% penetration. F i g u r e 7 shows the c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n s converted t o e s t i m a t e d d o l l a r costs--capaci t y a d d i t i o n s a r e r a t h e r c o n s t a n t i n d o l l a r s p e r kVA c a p a c i t y added.

loo

F i g u r e 7.

Estimated r e l a t i v e c o s t s t o r e b u i l d the d i s t r i b u t i o n system as a f u n c t i o n o f h e a t pump p e n e t r a t i o n .

PfNfTRATb3N

F i g u r e 6.

T&0 impact o f h e a t pump a d d i t i o n s .

Water Heater C o n t r o l . The water h e a t c o n t r o l s c e n a r i o c o n s i s t e d o f modeling the p e n e t r a t i o n of on-off c o n t r o l i n t o residences i n the Pensacola study area. Water heater c o n t r o l was modeled i n a somewhat d i f f y e n t m a y e r than t h e h e a t pump scenario. Since the c o n t r o l i s i n a sense dispatchable, t h e f i r s t s t e p i n the a n a l y s i s determined the summer and w i n t e r r e d u c t i o n s a t peak time t h a t can be b r o u g h t about due t o water heater c o n t r o l . These r e d u c t i o n s proved t o be n e a r l y i d e n t i c a l (18 MVA w i n t e r , 17 MVA summer). I t was assumed t h a t water heater c o n t r o l c o u l d be a p p l i e d as needed t o reduce summer o r w i n t e r peaks by these amounts, i n b o t h base cases and combined scenarios ( d e s c r i b e d l a t e r ) . The impact o f water heater c o n t r o l on the d i s t r i b u t i o n system i s f a i r l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , largely because i t r e p r e s e n t s a r e d u c t i o n i n a l l cases, and The 18 MVA r e d u c t i o n , ( 3 % o f because i t i s minor. peak) i f implemented c o n t i n u a l l y a t system peak(s1, t r a n s l a t e s t o r o u g h l y a 2% r e d u c t i o n i n d i s t r i b u t i o n c a p a c i t y needs and a 2-1/2% r e d u c t i o n i n d i s t r i b u t i o n losses. Since i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a u t i l i t y would " u n b u i l d " d i s t r i b u t i o n c a p a c i t y f o r such a case, the r e a l impact o f d a t e r heater c o n t r o l would be t o r e l e a s e c a p a c i t y t h a t c o u l d be used e i t h e r to:

I n going from the p r e s e n t p e n e t r a t i o n o f h e a t pumps ( 6 % ) t o loo%, t h e system l o a d f a c t o r increases

1.

Accommodate growth ( t h e 2% r e p r e s e n t s r o u g h l y one y e a r ' s growth o f l o a d ) .

510

2. Allow

r e s w i t c h i n g o f !-?leased c a p a c i t y dccoinmodate a "lourer l o s s " c o n f i g u r a t i o n .

to

I n the o p i n i o n o f the research team, the r e a l advantage o f wdter h : t e r con,;rol would be i n i t s implementation as an a n t i d o t e t o tile c o s t s o f T&D a d d i t i o n s b r o u g h t about by such scen;lrios as therinal storage and h e a t pumps. Because r e s i d e n t i a l water heaters a r e l o c a t e d i n t h e same geographic l o c a t i o n s as the r e s i d e n t i d ] h e a t pumps and/or thermal storage units, t h e i r c o n t r o l r e p r e s e n t s a n e a r l y optimdl The 18 YVA reducimpact on the d i s t r i b u t i o n system. t i o n made p o s s i b l e by wdter heater c o n t r o l i s , f o r example, equal t o the l o a d incredse caused by a 7% i n c r e a s e i n the p e n e t r a t i o n o f h e a t pumps i n t o the system. By implementing f u l l (100%) water hedter c o n t r o l on the Pensacola area, the p o i n t a t d i i c h a r l e t peak l o a d i n c r e a s e i s experienced can be increased froin a p e n e t r a t i o n l e v e l o f 19% t o 26%. T h i s a l l o w s the u t i l i t y t o f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s a l e s w i t h o u t i n c u r r i n g any a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s f o r T&D expansion.
Neatherization. " N e a t h e r i z a t i o n " i n c l u d e s a program o f i n c e n t i v e s and standards to promote the more e f f i c i e n t use o f a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g and h e a t i n g i n the r s s i d e n t i a l customer,, base. The reader should n o t e t h a t "Weatherization was i n c l u d e d i o the heat pump case discussed above--the loads i n t h d t scenario assumed t h a t every h e a t pump conversion a1 so accommodated w e a t h e r i z a t i o n as p a r t o f the i n s t a l l a t i o n . The l o a d increases i n t h e h e a t pump case i n c l u d e d r e d u c t i o n s due t o t h e more e f f i c i e n t i n s u l a t i o n and use o f h z a t i n g / c o o l i n g devices. Weatherization r e s u l t s i n a 37 MVA r e d u c t i o n i n w i n t e r peak and a 39 NVA r e d u c t i o n i n summer peak load. Due to the l o a d curve shapes o f r e s i d e n t i a l and o t h e r classes, i t a l s o r e s u l t s i n a s h i f t o f the summer peak time t o one hour e a r l i e r i n the day (5 t o 6 p.m. r a t h e r than 6 t o 7 p.m.). The impact o f w e a t h e r i z a t i o n on the d i s t r i b u t i o n system c a p a c i t y needs i s n e a r l y i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t b r o u g h t about by water heater c o n t r o l , b u t over W i c e a s much. The 38 MVA r e d u c t i o n , ( 6 . 5 % o f peak) t r a n s l a t e s t o a 5.8% r e d u c t i o n i n s u b s t a t i o n c a p a c i t y needs Again, as and a 6% r e d u c t i o n i n d i s t r i b u t i o n losses. w i t h water h e a t c o n t r o l , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a u t i l i t y would " u n b u i l d " d i s t r i b u t i o n c a p a c i t y i n such a case, so the r e a l impact o f water h e a t c o n t r o l weatherizat i o n would be t o r e l e a s e c a p a c i t y f o r growth o r s w i t c h i n g changes aimed a t i m p r m i n g losses. Reductions b r o u g h t a b o u t due t o v e a t h e r i z a t i o n a r e m u l t i p l i c a t i v e . For example, t h e 37 MVA r e d u c t i o n i n w i n t e r peak l o a d from the 100% w e a t h e r i z a t i o n scenario i s due t o improved e f f i c i e n c y o f the use o f the e x i s t i n g e l e c t r i c h e a t ( r o u g h l y 30% o f the r e s i d e n t i a l customer base). But, i f t h e p e n e t r a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t r i c h e a t i s increased, t h e weatheri z a t i o n y i e l d s a g r e a t e r savings (because i t now a p p l i e s to more e l e c t r i c h e a t customers). Weatheriz a t i o n , i f a p p l i e d t o a l l thermdl storage customers, c u t s the thermal storage 100% p e n e t r a t i o n peak l o a d f r o m 1011 MVA t o 916 MVA, r e s u l t i n g i n a tremendous savings i n r e q u i r e d c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n s . (However, i t a1 so c u t s energy sales, and consequently, revenues t h a t m i g h t more than o f f s e t the c o s t s ) .

system d i e u p o i n t . system l o a d curve, 6 t o 3 p.m.

Such a m i x t u r e r e s u l t s i n a f l a t w i t h peak value o f 580 MVA from

10

v
System peak l o a d r e d u c t i o n as a f u n c t i o n o f penetration o f a i r conditioning control,

Figure 8.

The impact o f a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g c o n t r s l on the d i s t r i b u t i o n system, d t 50% p e n e t r a t i o n ( t h e optimal case) i s complicated. Although system peak i s reduced by 10 MVA, the peak loads i n the r e s i d e n t i a l areas a r e T h i s increase i s a c t u a l l y increased by a b o u t 14 :"A. small enough t o be absorbed by the e x i s t i n g system, and occurs over d s h o r t enough p e r i o d ( f o r o n l y one hour, and then o n l y on peak summer days), t h a t capaci t y a d d i t i o n s a r e n o t j u s t i f i e d i n an a t t e m p t t o lower the r e s u l t i n g h i g h e r losses. As a r e s u l t , a i r condit i o n i n g c o n t r o l can be viewed as a DSM s t r 3 t e g y t h a t reduces system peak l o a d b u t s l i g h t l y increases d i s t r i b u t i o n costs. ANALYSIS OF COMBINATION DSM STRATEGIES Two combination scenarios were s t u d i e d i n an a t t e m p t t o determine the impact t h a t simultaneous implementation o f mu1 t i p l e OSM types would have on the system. These are: Maximum Summer Load Reduction A s c e n a r i o was designed t o accomplish t h e maximum f e a s i b l e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e summer peak load. This included: 100%w e a t h e r i z a t i o n 100% cool storage 100% water h e a t e r c o n t r o l 50% d i r c o n d i t i o n i n g c o n t r o l T h i s i s a very e f f i c i e n t combination scenario, decrease i n summer f o r i t r e s u l t e d i n a 64 NVA (11%) system peak l o a d ( f r o m 590 MVA t o 526 MVA), and a 54 MVA r e d u c t i o n (10%) o f t h e w i n t e r peak l o a d ( f r o m 538 MVA t o 484 MVA)--the l o a d r e d u c t i o n i s n e a r l y I n addition, the load constant, a t 10% yedr round. r e d u c t i o n impacts n e a r l y a l l areas o f the system, AS a r e d u c i n g b o t h commercial and r e s i d e n t i a l loads. r e s u l t , t h e impact on the power d i s t r i b u t i o n system i s homogeneously spread throughout the system. Because o f this homogeneity, the combined scenario " r e l e a s e s " over 90 MVA o f s u b s t a t i o n c a p a c i t y ( 9 % ) and a s i m i l a r amount o f feeder c a p a c i t y ( r o u g h l y 250 MVA m i l e s o r primary feeder requirements). Dist r i b u t i o n l o s s e s a r e reduced substantia1,;y (by 20%). Again, s i n c e the u t i l i t y i s u n l i k e l y to u n b u i l d " the capacity, t h i s can be viewed as c a p a c i t y a v a i l a b l e t o absorb f u t u r e growth. The r e l e a s e d c a p a c i t y i s roughly equivalent t o t h a t required f o r f i v e year's l o a d growth ( a t 2% annual growth). b u t much of i t i s n o t l o c a t e d i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o h i g h growth areas

A i r Conditioning Control. A i r conditioning control accomplishes a r e d u c t i o n i n r e s i d e n t i a l l o a d from 4 t o 7 p.m., b u t has a rebound, t o a higher-than-base r e s i d e n t i a l peak l o a d a t 8 p.m. A 100% a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g c o n t r o l case r e s u l t s i n a r e d u c t i o n o f the normal 7 p.m. suminer peak o f 590 MVA t o 5 7 1 MVA (a 19 MVA r e d u c t i o n ) , b u t the rebound causes an i n c r e a s e i n the 8 p.m. l o a d l e v e l , t o a As shown i n F i g u r e 8 , a 50% h i g h e r peak o f 596 MVA. m i x t u r e o f c o n t r o l and n o n c o n t r o l i s o p t i m a l from a

511

(growth i s n o t spread homogeneously throughout the s e r v i c e area). Thus, the r e l e a s e d c a p a c i t y should n o t be viewed as a u t o m a t i c a l l y a v a i l a b l e t o absorb the f u t u r e l o a d growth f o r the n e x t f i v e years. Although no d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s were done, the research team e s t i m a t e s t h a t the r e l e a s e d c a p a c i t y i s h a l f a p p l i c a b l e t o growth. be viewed as a p p l y i n g t o absorb half the Thus, i t growth f o r t h e n e x t 2 years.

REFERENCES

c11

M a na geme n t : Overvied of [Key Derna n d-S ide E l e c t r i c power Research Issues. Palo A1 to, CA: Edison E l e c t r i c T m u t e . and Washinqton, D.C.: I n s t i t u t e ; February, i984, p. 14. Planning--Error and Impact on Design, Trans. on PAS, March 1983, p. 675. IEEE

can

c2 1 H. L. W i l l i s , "Load F o r e c a s t i n g f o r D i s t r i b u t i o n

Minimized Thermal Storage Impact A combination o f water heater c o n t r o l and w e a t h e r i z a t i o n was i n c l u d e d i n combination w i t h the t h e r m 1 storage scenario i n o r d g r t o minimize the peak l o a d increases b r o u g h t about by t h a t scenario. The c o a b i n a t i o n 3 f 100% vrater heater c o n t r o l 18 MVA reduct i o n ) and 100% w e a t h e r i z a t i o n (37 MVA w i n t e r reduct i o n ) does n o t add up t o a 5 4 MVA r e d u c t i o n i n t h e 100% thermal storage peak, because water h e a t e r c o n t r o l i s much l e s s e f f e c t i v e a t e a r l y (2 a.m.) rnorning rrhen t h e thermal storage peaks. Peak A t 100% thermal storage r e d u c t i o n i s o n l y 42 MVA. p e n e t r a t i o n , peak l o a d i s reduced from 1011 MVA t o 968 M V A (4% o f t o t a l , 9% o f t h e i n c r e a s e over base case peak). F i g u r e 9 shows the r e s u l t i n g impacts.

[31

"Demand-Si de Distribution v o l . 1 and 2.

Yanagement--Transmi s s i o n and E P R I Report EM-6131, Impacts,"

Timothy S. Yau i s Manager o f Planning and Technology I n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e Cdstomer Systems (Energy Management and U t i l i z a t i o n ) D i v i s i o n , a t the E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e (EPRI) i n ? a l o A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a . Yau's c u r r e n t r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s i n c l u d e developing t h e EMU D i v i s i o n ' s one-year and f i v e - y e a r p l a n s and p i o n e e r i n g new p l a n n i n g approaches to i n t e g r a t e new technologies, developed by t h e EMU D i v i s i o n , i n t o t h e u t i l i t y system. Yau r e c e i v e d a B.S. degree i n E l e c t r i c a l Engin e e r i n g from C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y and an M.S. degree i n the sdme f i e l d from S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y . He i s a l i c e n s e d p r o f e s s i o n a l engineer i n t h e s t a t e o f California.
Dr. W i l l i a m M. Smith i s the Manager, Demand-Side P l a n n i n g and I n f o r m t i o r l , i n t h e Demand-Side Planning Program: Customer Systems (Energy Management and U t i l i z a t i o n ) D i v i s i o n , a t t h e E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e (EPRI) i n Palo A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a . He j o i n e d the I n s t i t u t e i n 1985. D r . Smith oversees a research p o r t f o l i o t h a t integrated i n c l u d e s demand-side management (DSN), value-based p l a n n i n g (IVP) and e v a l u a t i o n , a c t i v i t i e s f o r t r a n s f e r r i n g demand-side data and e x p e r t i s e between u t i l i t i e s , i n n o v a t i v e p r i c i n g and bidding, cogeneration, and the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e l e v a n t DSM/end-use i n f o r m a t i o n f o r member u t i l i t y consumption. I n t h i s l a s t regard, D r . Smith c u r r e n t l y serves as E d i t o r of the End-Use Neds which i s pub1 ished q u d r t e r l y D r . Smith r e c e i v e d a B.S. i n Physics, and earned h i s M.S. and Ph.D. i n Astrophysics, from t h e S t a t e L l n i v e r s i t y o f INew York, Stony Brook i n 1971, 1973, and 1976, r e s p e c t i v e l y . d h i l e an undergraduate, he was p r e s i d e n t o f the l o c a l chapter o f the N a t i o n a l Physics IHonor Society.

PEMTRATON

F i g u r e 9.

T&D i m p a c t o f t h e combined thermal storagewater heater c o n t r o l -weatheri z a t i o n s cena r i 0. CONCLUSION

The case study shows t h a t T&D impacts cdn be very s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e o v e r a l l e v a l u a t i o n o f the c o s t There a r e i n s t a n c e s e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f DSM s t r a t e g y . where a DSM program may have no i m p a c t a t the generat i o n l e v e l b u t cause s i g n i f i c a n t problems a t the TAD level. There a r e a l s o i n s t a n c e s where DSM programs m y have very small p o s i t i v e impact a t the g e n e r a t i o n l e v e l b u t r e a l i z e s i g n i f i c a n t savings a t t h e TAD level. Therefore, T&O impact analyses should be dn i n t e g r a l p a r t of any DSN assessment. The study a l s o shows t h a t t o p r o p e r l y assess the impact o f DSN on t h e T&D system, some m o d i f i c a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g T&D p l a n n i n g procedure would be necessary. The m o d i f i c a t i o n r e q u i r e s t h e expansion o f l o a d f o r e c a s t i n g and l o a d modeling a c t i v i t i e s t o i n c l u d e l o a d shape analyses f o r d i f f e r e n t customer classes, and the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f customer l o a d s segregated by customer c l a s s e s on a s p a t i a l basis. The study a l s o v e r i f i e s the a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f a powerful screening methodology f o r the assessment of t h e impact o f DSM on the T&D system. The screening methodology, Spa ti a1 Frequency A n a l y s i s methodology, provides n o t only e x c e l l e n t q u a l i t a t i v e information and i n s i g h t s , b u t a1 so acceptable q u a n t i t a t i v e c o s t i m p a c t i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t c3n be used f o r r a n k i n g o f DSM a1 t e r n a t i v e s o r f i r s t c u t c o s t / b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s o f USM options

R. Gary H u f f has over twenty years experience i n t h e e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y . He has e l e v e n years exper i e n c e reuardincl the e v a l u a t i o n o f e l e c t r o t e c h n o l o g i e s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l sector. He a l s o has designed and analyzed l o a d s t u d i e s i n support o f r e g u l a t o r y a na g e m n t s t u d i e s , mark e t i ng , f i1 ing s, demand- s ide m and l o a d and energy f o r e c a s t i n g . He i s p r e s e n t l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r s u p e r v i s i n g end-use a c t i v i t i e s i n support o f the Southern e l e c t r i c system and m n a g i n g the Southern system-End-Use Research Program. M r . H u f f holds a B.S. i n e l e c t r i c a l e n g i n e e r i n g from t h e Georgia I n s t i t u t e o f Technology. He i s the a u t h o r o f papers r e g a r d i n g modeling l o a d data, the impact o f demand-side management programs, and energy e f f i c i e n c y i n a water and sewer system.
Lavrrence J . Vogt has over f i f t e e n y e a r s experience i n t h e e l e c t r i c d t i l i t y i n d u s t r y . He has t h r e e and oneh a l f years i n the f i e l d o f e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n engineering, and e i g h t and one-half y e a r s i n the f i e l d o f u t i l i t y r a t e engineering, i n v o l v i n g the design, a n a l y s i s , and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f r i t e s and

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otiier t d r i f f provisions for e l e c t r i c service. He has developed and i n s t r u c t e d coursCs i n e l e c t r i c power distribution, energy management, and ratemking ?rinciples. P r e s e n t l y , Nr. Vogt p r o v i d e s a c o n s u l t i n g filnct i o n i n the 3rea o f r a t e s and r e g u l a t o r y m a t t e r s f o r the Marketing and Rate o r y a n i z a t i o n o f the Southern e l e c t r i c system. M r . Vogt h o l d s a Bachelor o f Science degree and a Naster of Engineering i n E l e c t r i c a l E n g i n e t r i n g from the U n i v e r s i t y o f L o u i s v i l l e , L o u i s v i l l e , Kentucky. He majored i n E l e c t r i c a l Power System Engineering w i t h t h e s i s 'work i n the d i s c i p l i n e o f E l e c t r i c a l Energy Mana gernen t

H. Lee W i l l i s i s p r e s e n t l y Nanger o f ausiness Development a t Hestinghouse Advanced System Technology and d i r e c t s the o v e r a l l design o f f u t u r e AST software systems. D u r i n g t h e 1970s, M r . i J i l l i s was w i t h Houston L i g h t i n g and Power Company's System P l d n n i n g Division. I n 1979, he i n v e n t e d t h e S p a t i a l Frequency A n a l y s i s (SFA) method of d i s t r i b u t i o n system analyMr. H i l l i s j o i n e d Westinghouse AST i n 1980, sis. where he has Seen 3 i s t r i b u t i o n Consultdnt, and Manager M r . d i l l i s had primary o f T&D Software and Services. r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r the design o f FEEDERPLAN, the long-range p l a n n i n g p o r t i o n o f CADPAD. M r . M i l l i s , a and M.E.E. s e n i o r member o f IEEE, holds B.S.E.E. degrees from R i c e U n i v e r s i t y and i s a u t h o r o f over 155 t e c h n i c a l papers and a r t i c l e s on d i s t r i b u t i o n p l a n ning, numerical methods, and power system engineeri n g . M r . W i l l i s i s a r e g i s t e r e d p r o f e s s i o n a l engineer i n Texas.