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Counting-Probability 1-Inroduction

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, and key probability rules and formulas. It defines an event as a set of possible outcomes and provides the rules that probability of an event must be between 0 and 1, and the probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability of the event occurring. It also covers the formulas for calculating probabilities of multiple events, including mutually exclusive and independent events. Examples are provided to illustrate finding probabilities of different events occurring.

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MissPhilip
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103 views4 pages

Counting-Probability 1-Inroduction

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, and key probability rules and formulas. It defines an event as a set of possible outcomes and provides the rules that probability of an event must be between 0 and 1, and the probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability of the event occurring. It also covers the formulas for calculating probabilities of multiple events, including mutually exclusive and independent events. Examples are provided to illustrate finding probabilities of different events occurring.

Uploaded by

MissPhilip
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to Probability: Lesson Notes and Examples

Key wordsExperiment Outcome Event

Example Experiment: Pick a card from a standard pack of 52 cards Outcomes: 2 of hearts, 9 of clubs, ace of spades, etc. Event: picking a card with an even number on. P(even number) =

20 5 = 52 13

(2, 4, 6, 8, or 10 of each suit)

Definition: An event is a set of possible outcomes. Key results Let A and B be two events. 0 P(A) 1 P(A not happening) = 1 P(A) Note: P(A) is short for the probability of A. Note: A means not A

If A and B are mutually exclusive (so that they cannot occur at the same time), then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) A N.B. P(A B) means P(A or B)

More generally, if A and B are not mutually exclusive: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
A A AND B B

Example: A university has 4000 first year undergraduates 2800 live in halls 1000 live in privately-rented accommodation 500 study medicine 340 of the medical students live in halls. A student is picked at random. Let H be the event the student lives in halls; R in privately-rented accommodation; M that they study medicine. Then the above information can be represented by the probabilities:

2800 7 = 4000 10 500 1 = P(M) = 4000 8 P(H) = So, P(H R) =

1000 1 = 4000 4 340 17 = P(M H) = 4000 200 P(R) =

7 1 19 + = (you can add the probabilities since H and R are mutually 10 4 20 exclusive you cant live in both types of accommodation at the same time). P(H M) = P(H) + P(M) P(H M) 7 1 17 37 + = = (H and M are not mutually exclusive you can 10 8 200 50 be a medical student and live in halls). But Independent events A and B are independent if the probability of one happening isnt affected by whether the other happens or not. If A and B are independent, then: P(A B) = P(A) P(B). Example: A dice is thrown twice. Find the probability a) of getting a 4 on both occasions; b) that neither number is a 2; c) both numbers are the same. a) When you throw a dice twice, the outcomes of the throws are independent of each other. So 1 1 1 P(4 AND 4) = = 6 6 36 b) P(not 2 AND not 2) = 5 5 25 = 6 6 36 1 1 1 1 + + ... + = 36 36 36 6

c) P(both numbers are the same) = P(1, 1) + P(2, 2) ++P(6, 6) =

Some key techniques: Sample space diagrams: Eg two dice are each numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6. They are both thrown and their scores are added together. There are 36 equally likely combinations of scores:1 2 3 3 4 4 7 Second dice 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 6 7 8 8 9 9 1 2 6 1 = 36 6 18 1 P(total is even) = = 36 2 P(total is 5) = P(total score is at least 6)

First dice

1 2 2 3 3 6

15 5 = 36 12

Tree diagrams Eg Lydia buys a ticket in her school fetes raffle and tombola. The probability that she wins a prize in the raffle is 1/80 and in the tombola is 1/10. Find the probability that she wins: a) 2 prizes; b) at least one prize. R = wins prize in raffle, T = wins prize in tombola.
T

1 10
R

1 80

9 10

Not T T

1 10
79 80

Not R

9 10

Not T

The events of winning a prize in the raffle and in the tombola are independent of each other. Therefore: 1 1 1 = a) P(2 prizes) = P(R AND T) = 80 10 800
b) P(at least one prize) = 1 P(no prizes) = 1

79 9 89 = 80 10 800

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