Four Great Energy Companies For The Peak Energy Portfolio: Special Research Report
Four Great Energy Companies For The Peak Energy Portfolio: Special Research Report
Four Great Energy Companies For The Peak Energy Portfolio: Special Research Report
But heres the secret few folks are talking about a record low petroleum trade deficit played a huge role in the revisions. Moreover, our elected leaders are eager to take credit. But are they really the ones responsible? Lets take a look
The Fantasy
Back on March 7, 2012 in North Carolina, President Obama made the following statements in a speech on American energy: Weve got 2% of the world oil reserves; we use 20%. What that means is, as much as were doing to increase oil production, were not going to be able to just drill our way out of the problem of high gas prices. Anybody who tells you otherwise either doesnt know what theyre talking about or they arent telling you the truth. Fast forward to September 2013. The White House and the president are now openly acknowledging increased oil production is boosting the U.S. economy. No argument there. In fact, I think its great. The part I have a problem with is Obama and his administration openly taking credit for it. That reminds me of when Al Gore famously said, During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. Both are total fabrications. Politicians historically like to take credit for good news. They also are good at pointing out bad news due to someone elses shortcomings. Nonetheless, when the revised figures came out, the White House spin machine went into action. It started with an Aug. 29, 2013 White House blog entry. In it, National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling and Council of Economic Advisors Jason Furman, took credit for the record low petroleum trade deficit. As I mentioned above, the record low deficit number is a key part of the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) upward revision from 1.7% to 2.5%. The government (correctly) points to this as a sign of continuing economic improvement. To quote Sperling and Furman, This is yet another reminder that the presidents focus on increasing Americas energy independence is not just a critical national security strategy, it is also part of an economic plan to create jobs, expand growth and cut the trade deficit. The president and his staff are certainly talking the talk on increasing energy independence. The reality is, the federal government has had little if anything to do with
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making it happen.
The Realities
The reality is that the government produces nothing of a material nature. Nowhere in the U.S. is any government agency drilling for oil. It hasnt developed any technology concerning horizontal drilling, fracking or other well technologies. There is less oil production on federal lands now than when President Obama took office his first time. Private companies developed and funded all of the above technology. Others are doing the drilling, fracking and the extraction of crude. Nearly all of it is on private lands. Industry groups are furious and were quick to respond. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weighed in a few days later: That were producing more oil and natural gas despite current federal policy, not as a result of it, must be understood so we can make policy choices that help increase domestic energy and job creation, economic stimulus and improved balance of trade. Kathleen M. Sgamma, vice president of public affairs for the Western Energy Alliance (WEA), also weighed in on the governments blog. She indicated that private sector investment in new technology, exploration and development of new shale plays absolutely dwarfs any monies the government spent on basic research. She was critical of the federal government, which continues to erect obstacles to domestic oil and gas production. The above is a classic example of Washington taking credit for something it had absolutely nothing to do with. In fact, in many of Obamas stump speeches, he pooh-poohed more oil and gas development in favor of renewables. Obamas generally been openly critical of subsidies for big oil. According to John Felmy, chief economist of the API, these are not subsidies. They are tax provisions that generally apply to all industries. He calls Obamas comments a political distraction from high gasoline prices and our nations failed energy policies. I might add, What energy policies? This is just another example of the government talking out of both sides of its mouth. Criticizing the oil industry on one hand and taking credit for all of the new oil thats been produced on the other just irks the hell out of companies that are really responsible for it. In order to produce all this new oil, private investment in new technologies created hundreds of thousands of new jobs. Entire new industries have been born. Untold numbers of new companies are in business.
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They drill for oil. They build pipelines and processing plants. They reprocess contaminated drilling fluids. They develop and produce special materials used in fracking a horizontal well. Not the government. I could go on and on The point is this: Look at all the additional new oil we have. Our reserves keep increasing. (The Energy Information Administration reports they went up 15% in 2011 over 2010.) We now import a mere 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East per day. In a few years, that number will be zero. Who would have ever guessed? Make no mistake, politicians will continue to take credit for any additional good news from the oil and gas sectors (or anywhere else for that matter). Its what theyre good at. You and I know better. All this new oil is great news for the folks savvy enough to invest in the nations energy sector. Im not alone in my thinking either. Goldman Sachs analyst Joseph B. Stewart recently said the oil and gas exploration sectors look attractive. He expects oil prices of $100 to $110 per barrel for at least several years. One of the stocks he specifically mentioned is already in the Peak Energy portfolio: Gulfport Energy Corporation (Nasdaq: GPOR). He also believes natural gas prices will be in a range of $4 to $4.50 per million British thermal units. Stewart commented: With improving business conditions and company-specific factors driving growth, the group should perform well even without extra help from rising commodity prices.
A 79.3% gain on First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) A 67.5% gain on Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB) A 32.7% gain on Tesla Motors, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) Twelve out of the 15 stocks in the Peak Energy portfolio are profitable as I write this. Most of our stocks are in the energy sector. Many are in the oil and gas business and their prices tend to fluctuate with the price of oil and gas. Some of our stocks are high dividend payers. These companies, many of which are master limited partnerships (MLP) pay nearly all of their net income to unitholders. Share prices of MLPs tend to fluctuate less. Whats going to happen to oil prices this year? West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will continue to be tightly range-bound between $100 and $110 per barrel in 2013. The Bakken field continues to be one of Americas top producing fields. The lack of pipelines has forced oil companies to transport some of their crude via rail. This oversupply will probably continue at least through the end of 2013, and will help keep WTI prices low. Brent crude, on the other hand, is a different story. It will likely remain in the $100 to $120 range. Any international geopolitical incident (like Syria) could send prices soaring. Thats not good news for U.S. East Coast refineries. They use Brent as a feedstock since they cant get their hands on the lower-priced WTI. Some refineries are installing rail-unloading facilities in order to get their hands on WTI. Natural gas will continue to rise, and will eventually trade in a range of $4 to $4.50 per MMBtu. Were loaded with it here in the U.S. As a result, power companies are switching to it, and trucking companies are beginning to switch their 18-wheeler fleets over to run on it. The increasing demands from those two uses will continue to build a floor under natural gas prices. Eventually, almost imperceptibly, prices will begin to rise. As my friend Rick Rule likes to say, The cure for low prices is low prices. The converse is also true, of course. I firmly believe there are going to be a few select energy and infrastructure stocks that will do well in 2013 and beyond. Our Peak Energy portfolio is loaded with them. In this report, were adding what we believe will be four great investments you can make in the energy sector right now. During the rigorous analysis and screening weve been undertaking for the last several months, these four passed our tests. I think youll find the in-depth information well worth the read.
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So, grab a fresh cup of coffee, and sit back and pore through my latest edition of the Peak Energy TrendWatch report.
updates on our current positions and hot new recommendations that just cant wait for the next quarterly report. In Peak Energy Weekly, you receive periodic sneak peeks into what Im researching for the next quarterly report. The Peak Energy portfolio: This is our master portfolio that contains all our current picks and provides simple buy/sell/hold recommendations for all of them One important note: Peak Energy Strategist isnt a trading service, so we dont provide options plays on any of the stocks we recommend. We also dont short stocks. After all, the long-term trend for energy usage is up, not down. We pick companies that our research identifies as the ones that stand to reap huge rewards and potentially huge gains for shareholders as a result of future energy trends happening. Were in the early stages of what I expect will be an exciting, fascinating and most important extremely profitable adventure. Welcome to Peak Energy Strategist.
I cant tell you everything about our algorithm. Suffice it to say we look at things like long-term growth trends in energy, sectors most likely to benefit, why and of most interest to us as investors when they will occur. Were constantly refining it, too. Lets face it: The investment landscape is a dynamic, changing landscape, and we have to be able to adapt quickly. We also look for those companies that represent value (bargains) relative to their peers. In addition, we look at both past and future predicted growth rates. Perhaps most important, we look beyond the Wall Street wonks things Wall Street analysts may have overlooked in their traditional cookie-cutter company analysis. However, after we run the numbers, I like to take my research one step further: I interview CEOs, COOs and CFOs and ask them about their companies. Few if any analysts (other than some of my peers at The Oxford Club) have the high-level access, or are willing to take the time to call these people. However, heres the thing: These guys are the real brains behind every company. Ive spent over 30 years of my professional life talking to them. In that time and with the hundreds of conversations Ive had one thing has become obvious: I always learn something by talking with company executives. They all love to spout off about their companies. Well its time to get started. In this report weve detailed four new stocks weve identified with the PEI. Theyre the ones were adding in this report. You can go on The Oxford Clubs website to see the entire list of companies we are currently tracking in the Peak Energy portfolio.
Not too far away in Lewistown, Pa. lived another pioneer by the name of Samuel S. Woods. He too found a pure silica sand deposit. He built a production plant that eventually became the Pennsylvania Glass Sand Corporation. The next 50 years saw many silica sand mines opened all across the United States. Acquisitions and mergers saw several major players emerge. One of them is U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SLCA). As it exists today, U.S. Silica has undergone many mergers over the years. Most notably was the merger of Pennsylvania Glass Sand Corporation and the Ottawa Silica Company. Today, U.S. Silica has 13 locations around the U.S. It has a 100-plus year history as a leader in producing industrial silica products. It has a rapidly increasing market share as a supplier of proppants to the oil and gas industry. Its a leading producer of industrial minerals. In addition to proppants, it produces whole grain silica, ground and fine-ground silica, aplite and kaolin clay. U.S. Silica manufactures over 200 products from these minerals. In addition to the oil and gas industry, U.S. Silicas customers include those in the glass, chemicals, foundry, building products, fillers and extenders, recreation, industrial filtration and treatment, and testing and analysis industries. U.S Silica has 307 million tons of high-quality reserves. In 2012, the company sold 7.2 million tons. One of the big growth areas for U.S. Silica is supplying sand proppant materials for the oil and gas industry.
Proppants Explained
Over the last 10 years, horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing has resulted in an oil and natural gas boom in the U.S. The process allows production and extraction of previously unobtainable oil and natural gas trapped in shale. One of the key elements is a material called proppants. Lets do a quick review of the oil or natural gas horizontal well drilling process, fracking, and where proppants come in. Take a look at the graphic on the following page. A drill rig sinks a vertical shaft down to within 500 feet of the oil or gas-bearing layer. The bit slowly turns toward the horizontal as it drills, until it arrives at the layer of interest. The drill bit then proceeds horizontally for up to three miles, following the shale layer. After the drilling process is finished, the fracking process can begin. First, explosive charges are set off at specific intervals along the horizontal pipe. These punch holes in the pipe.
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Pumps force a mixture of water and sand and various other chemicals into the well under extremely high pressure. This causes the surrounding shale to fracture, releasing the trapped oil and/or gas. The proppants stay in the cracks, holding them open. The pressure of the trapped gas or oil forces the water and chemicals back out of the well. Filtration units separate them for reuse again on another well.
entry are high including mining permits, trucking and rail costs. U.S. Silica has access to nearly every major railroad in the country. The company also operates transload facilities in each major oil and natural gas basin. The company is in the process of opening a new mining site due to increased demand for fracking sand. Its located near Utica, Ill. Its expected to have an annual capacity of 1.5 million tons when it comes online in Q1 2014.
Many people believe gasoline moves from refineries to gas stations via tractor-trailer trucks. It turns out theyre just used for the last few miles. The bulk of the transmission is via pipeline. Not only is it energy efficient, its safer too.
One of the Top Vertically Integrated Natural Gas Producers in the U.S.
Very few natural gas companies are vertically integrated. That is, most are gathering pipeline operators, midstream pipeline operators, processors or marketers. ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) is all of the above. It owns 43.4% of ONEOK Partners, LP (NYSE: OKS), one of the largest natural gas MLPs. ONEOK Partners is a leader in Courtesy of Core Labs, Inc. gathering, processing, storage and transportation of natural gas in the U.S. In addition, it owns one of the nations largest natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline and processing systems. It connects NGL supplies in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain plays with large NGL market centers. Take a look at the map below, courtesy of ONEOK. It gives you a sense of the coverage the company has in its served markets. While we could choose to own either company, ONEOK Inc. provides the best
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combination of growth and income. Unless we specifically mention otherwise, when we mentioned ONEOK we are talking about the parent company, not the MLP. ONEOK is one of the biggest natural gas distributors in the country. It serves over 2 million customers in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The companys Energy Services operation focuses on marketing natural gas. It operates throughout the entire U.S. Like most pipeline operators, ONEOK and its subsidiaries operate primarily on a fee-based model. The more product that flows through its pipeline network, the greater its earnings. ONEOK is really two companies in one. The first focuses on natural gas, and the second on natural gas liquids (NGLs). Lets look at its natural gas operation first.
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is the perfect time to add this natural gas powerhouse to the Peak Energy portfolio and to yours too. Action to Take: Buy ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) at market. In addition, use a 25% trailing stop to protect your principal and your profits.
This Companys Sold 90% of Its Product for the Next 10 Years
The next company were adding in this report is a bit of a unique animal. Its a midstream master limited partnership (MLP). Why is it unique? The company has a buyer for 90% of its product for the next decade. It doesnt matter how much it produces. In addition, the MLP currently yields 3.78%. Its year-over-year increase was 18%. The MLP projects a minimum 15% increase in its distribution over the next year. This kind of distribution growth rate puts this MLP in a different class compared to other MLP choices. Two years of this fast-paced distribution growth should see share prices increase at least 33%. Combined with the distribution, that could easily be an investment double. Right now, this company seems just as focused on share price gain. This MLP is running under the radar screen of most individual investors. Thats probably one of the reasons it showed up on the Peak Energy radar screen.
Westerns systems are located in East, West and South Texas, North-Central Pennsylvania, the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, Utah and Wyoming) and the Mid-Continent (Kansas and Oklahoma). Take a look at the map below to see what and where Westerns current assets are.
[We had] strong sequential throughput growth in our liquids-rich areas, as well as the Marcellus. [With the] start-up of our Brasada plant in June, and the commencement of our recently announced capital projects, 2013 is shaping up to be a very exciting year. We continue to maintain the full-year 2013 earnings guidance that we released in February. We will be revising the total capital expenditure guidance to reflect the new projects. To sum it up, Western Gas Partners could turn out to be one of the best-performing MLPs in the midstream space, and possibly in the entire natural gas sector. It certainly deserves a place in your portfolio, which is why were adding it to ours. Action to Take: Buy Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE: WES) at market. In addition, use a 25% trailing stop to protect your principal and your profits.
In addition, 14 natural gas reservoirs can store approximately 400 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day. The storage system has 21 compressor units, and a total throughput of 1.4 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per day. The second asset is the Equitrans Gathering System. It consists of roughly 2,000 miles of low-pressure gathering lines. It collects natural gas from wells and other receiving points. These lines have multiple connections with the companys transmission and storage systems.
EQT Midstreams objective is to grow its cash distributions at double-digit rates over the next several years. Beside the drop-downs from EQT Corporation, the partnership is pursing other organic opportunities as well as third-party producer volumes and acquisitions. EQT Midstreams most recent acquisition was the Sunrise Pipeline. It acquired the 41.5-mile transmission pipeline from EQT Corporation. You can see the strategic location on the map below.
In addition to the pipeline, the Sunrise acquisition includes the Jefferson compressor station plus an interconnection point with the Texas Eastern Pipeline. The Sunrise Pipeline currently has a throughput capacity of 400 BBtu per day. The Jefferson compressor station is currently undergoing an expansion that will add approximately 550 BBtu per day of additional capacity. Its expected to be in service by September 2014. The additional capacity is already gone. EQT Midstream has entered into a 10- and 20-year contract that commences once the expansion goes online. In terms of future opportunities, EQT Corporation still owns 10,300 miles of gathering
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lines and 244 compressor stations. Its likely that over time, most if not all of these assets will transfer to EQT Midstream Partners. I believe that EQT Midstream Partners is another growth and income story much like Western Gas Partners. Thats why were adding it to the Peak Energy portfolio. Action to Take: Buy EQT Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: EQM) at market. In addition, use a 25% trailing stop to protect your principal and your profits. Well there you have it. I hope you enjoyed reading the latest edition of Peak Energy TrendWatch. The four companies profiled above are poised to add to the gains were currently sitting on. Well continue to track our new picks, as well as the rest of the Peak Energy portfolio stocks in our regular Peak Energy Weekly. Good investing,
David Fessler
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From time to time, The Oxford Club will discuss investment ideas that will not be included in the Clubs various portfolios. There are certain situations where we feel a company may be an extraordinary value but may not necessarily fit within the selection guidelines of these existing portfolios. In these cases, the recommendations are to be considered speculative and should not be considered part of any of the Clubs portfolios. Also, by the time you receive this report, there is a chance that we may have exited a recommendation previously included in one of our portfolios. Occasionally, this happens because we use a disciplined trailing stop philosophy with our investments, meaning that any time a companys share price falls 25% from its high, we sell the stock.
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