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INTERNATIONAL IEC
STANDARD 62539
First edition
2007-07

IEEE 930™

Guide for the statistical analysis of electrical

insulation breakdown data

Commission Electrotechnique Internationale

International Electrotechnical Com m ission
Международная Электротехническая Комиссия
 –2– IEC 62539:2007(E)
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CONTENTS

FOREWORD .................................................................................................................................................4
IEEE Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................7

1. Scope.................................................................................................................................................... 8

2. References............................................................................................................................................ 8

3. Steps required for analysis of breakdown data .................................................................................... 9

3.1 Data acquisition ........................................................................................................................... 9

3.2 Characterizing data using a probability function ....................................................................... 10
3.3 Hypothesis testing.......................................................................................................................11

4. Probability distributions for failure data .............................................................................................12

4.1 The Weibull distribution .............................................................................................................12

4.2 The Gumbel distribution .............................................................................................................13
4.3 The lognormal distribution .........................................................................................................13
4.4 Mixed distributions .....................................................................................................................13
4.5 Other terminology.......................................................................................................................14

5. Testing the adequacy of a distribution ................................................................................................14

5.1 Weibull probability data .............................................................................................................14

5.2 Use of probability paper for the three-parameter Weibull distribution ......................................15
5.3 The shape of a distribution plotted on Weibull probability paper ..............................................16
5.4 A simple technique for testing the adequacy of the Weibull distribution ..................................16

6. Graphical estimates of Weibull parameters ....................................................................................... 17

7. Computational techniques for Weibull parameter estimation ........................................................... 17

7.1 Larger data sets .......................................................................................................................... 17

7.2 Smaller data sets ........................................................................................................................ 18

8. Estimation of Weibull percentiles...................................................................................................... 19

9. Estimation of confidence intervals for the Weibull function............................................................. 19

9.1 Graphical procedure for complete and censored data................................................................ 20

9.2 Plotting confidence limits .......................................................................................................... 21

10. Estimation of the parameter and their confidence limits of the log-normal function....................... 21

10.1 Estimation of lognormal parameters.......................................................................................... 21

10.2 Estimation of confidence intervals of log-normal parameters................................................... 22

11. Comparison tests................................................................................................................................ 22

11.1 Simplified method to compare percentiles of Weibull distributions ......................................... 23

12. Estimating Weibull parameters for a system using data from specimens ......................................... 23

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IEC 62539:2007(E) –3–
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Annex A (informative) Least squares regression......................................................................................... 24

Annex B (informative) Bibliography........................................................................................................... 48

Annex C (informative) List of participants................................................................................................... 49

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 –4– IEC 62539:2007(E)
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INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION

___________

GUIDE FOR THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICAL INSULATION

BREAKDOWN DATA

FOREWORD
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International Standard IEC/IEEE 62539 has been processed through Technical Committee
112: Evaluation and qualification of electrical insulating materials and systems.

The text of this standard is based on the following documents:

IEEE Std FDIS Report on voting

930 (2004) 112/59/FDIS 112/69A/RVD

Full information on the voting for the approval of this standard can be found in the report on
voting indicated in the above table.

The committee has decided that the contents of this publication will remain unchanged until
the maintenance result date indicated on the IEC web site under "http://webstore.iec.ch" in
the data related to the specific publication. At this date, the publication will be

• reconfirmed,
• withdrawn,
• replaced by a revised edition, or
• amended.

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IEC 62539:2007(E) –5–
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 –6– IEC 62539:2007(E)
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IEEE Guide for the Statistical

Analysis of Electrical Insulation
Breakdown Data

Sponsor
Statistical Technical Committee
of the
IEEE Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Society

Approved 29 March 2005

American National Standards Institute

Approved 23 September 2004

IEEE-SA Standards Board

Abstract: This guide describes, with examples, statistical methods to analyze times to break down
and breakdown voltage data obtained from electrical testing of solid insulating materials, for
purposes including characterization of the system, comparison with another insulator system, and
prediction of the probability of breakdown at given times or voltages.
Keywords: breakdown voltage and time, Gumbel, Lognormal distributions, statistical methods,
statistical confidence limits, Weibull

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IEC 62539:2007(E) –7–
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IEEE Introduction
This introduction in not part of IEEE Std 930-2004, IEEE Guide for the Statistical Analysis of Electrical Insulation
Breakdown Data.

Endurance and strength of insulation systems and materials subjected to electrical stress may be tested using
constant stress tests in which times to breakdown are measured for a number of test specimens, and
progressive stress tests in which breakdown voltages may be measured. In either case it will be found that a
different result is obtained for each specimen and that, for given test conditions, the data obtained may be
represented by a statistical distribution.

Failure of solid insulation can be mostly described by extreme-value statistics, such as the Weibull and
Gumbel distributions, but, historically, also the lognormal function has been used. Methods for determining
whether data fit to either of these distributions, graphical and computer-based techniques for estimating the
most likely parameters of the distributions, computer-based techniques for estimating statistical confidence
intervals, and techniques for comparing data sets and some case studies are addressed in this guide.

Notice to users

Errata

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Attention is called to the possibility that implementation of this standard may require use of subject matter
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 –8– IEC 62539:2007(E)
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GUIDE FOR THE STATISTICAL

ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICAL INSULATION
BREAKDOWN DATA

1. Scope

Electrical insulation systems and materials may be tested using constant stress tests in which times to break-
down are measured for a number of test specimens, and progressive stress tests in which breakdown
voltages may be measured. In either case, it will be found that a different result is obtained for each speci-
men and that, for given test conditions, the data obtained may be represented by a statistical distribution.
This guide describes, with examples, statistical methods to analyze such data.

The purpose of this guide is to define statistical methods to analyze times to breakdown and breakdown
voltage data obtained from electrical testing of solid insulating materials, for purposes including
characterization of the system, comparison with another insulator system, and prediction of the probability
of breakdown at given times or voltages.

Methods are given for analyzing complete data sets and also censored data sets in which not all the speci-
mens broke down. The guide includes methods, with examples, for determining whether the data is a good
fit to the distribution, graphical and computer-based techniques for estimating the most likely parameters of
the distribution, computer-based techniques for estimating statistical confidence intervals, and techniques
for comparing data sets and some case studies. The methods of analysis are fully described for the Weibull
distribution. Some methods are also presented for the Gumbel and lognormal distributions. All the examples
of computer-based techniques used in this guide may be downloaded from the following web site “http://
grouper.ieee.org/groups/930/IEEEGuide.xls.” Methods to ascertain the short time withstand voltage or oper-
ating voltage of an insulation system are not presented in this guide. Mathematical techniques contained in
this guide may not apply directly to the estimation of equipment life.

2. References

The following publications may be used when applicable in conjunction with this guide. When the following
standards are superseded by an approved revision, the revision shall apply.

ASTM D149-97a(2004) Standard Test Method for Dielectric Breakdown Voltage and Dielectric Strength of
Solid Electrical Insulating Materials at Commercial Power Frequencies.1

1
ASTM publications are available from the American Society for Testing and Materials, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, West Conshohocken,
PA 19428-2959, USA (http://www.astm.org/).

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IEC 62539:2007(E) –9–
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BS 2918-2, Methods of test for electric strength of solid insulating materials.2

IEC 60243 series, Electrical strength of insulating materials—Test Methods—Part 1: Tests at power
frequencies. 3

3. Steps required for analysis of breakdown data

3.1 Data acquisition

3.1.1 Commonly used testing techniques

There are two commonly used breakdown tests for electrical insulation: constant stress tests and progressive
stress tests. In these tests a number of identical specimens are subjected to identical test regimes intended to
cause electrical breakdown. In constant stress tests the same voltage is applied to each specimen (they are
often tested in parallel) and the times to breakdown are measured. The times to breakdown may be widely
distributed with the longest time often being more than two orders of magnitude that of the shortest. In pro-
gressive stress tests an increasing voltage is applied to each specimen, usually breakdown voltages are
measured. The voltage may be increased continuously with time or in small steps. Other protocols, for
example impulse testing, may also be used. Breakdown voltages may be much less widely distributed with
the highest voltage sometimes only being 2% more than the lowest voltage.

Various international standards, e.g., BS 2918-2 and IEC 60243 series, give appropriate experimental procedures
for constant and progressive stress tests. This guide is intended to provide a more rigorous treatment for the
breakdown data obtained in this way.

3.1.2 Other data

Breakdown data may also be available from other sources; for example, times to breakdown of the insula-
tion in service may be available. Such data is generally much more difficult to analyze since the history of
each failed insulator may not be the same (see 3.1.4), particularly as units that failed will have been replaced.
It may also be unclear how many such insulation systems are in service and hence what proportion of them
have failed. The techniques described in this guide are, nevertheless, appropriate for such data provided suf-
ficient care is exercised in their application.

3.1.3 Data requirements

The number of data points required depends upon the number of parameters that describes the distribution
and the confidence demanded in the results. If possible, failure data on at least ten specimens should be
obtained; serious errors may result with less than five specimens (see also 3.2.2).

If all the specimens break down, the data is referred to as complete. In some cases, not all the specimens
break down, the data is then referred to as censored. Censored data may be encountered in constant stress
tests where the data are analyzed or the test is terminated before all the specimens break down. Censored
data can also occur with progressive stress tests where the power supply has insufficient voltage capability
to break down all the samples. In these cases, the data associated with a single group of specimens, those
with the highest strength, are not known and the data set is said to be singly censored.4 Data may also be
progressively censored. In this case, specimens may be withdrawn (or their data discounted) at any time or

2
Bristish Standards are available from IHS Engineering/IHS International, 15 Iverness Way East, Englewood, CO 80112, USA.
3
IEC publications are available from the Sales Department of the International Electrotechnical Commission, Case Postale 131, 3, rue
de Varembé, CH-1211, Genève 20, Switzerland/Suisse (http://www.iec.ch/). IEC publications are also available in the United States
from the Sales Department, American National Standards Institute, 25 West 43rd Street, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10036, USA (http://
www.ansi.org/).

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