An-Najah National University College of Graduate Studies
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
1 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Rainfall-Runoff Analysis and Modeling
Rainfall-runoff analysis and modeling is
concerned with the physical processes that occur within a catchment and lead to the transformation of rainfall into stream runoff: (1) Rainfall Hyetograph: Time-series of rainfall in a catchment. (2) Streamflow Hydrograph: Time-series of stream discharge at catchment outlet.
2 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Rainfall-Runoff Analysis and Modeling
The transformation between rainfall and streamflow is known as rainfall-runoff analysis or modeling
It is typically complex and site dependant according to the characteristics of the land surface, vegetation, stream channel and human infrastructure (flood control, irrigation, dams, roads, etc). The rainfall-runoff transformation is considered to be: (a) non-linear, (b) scale-dependant, (c) sitespecific and (d) complex.
3 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Rainfall-Runoff Analysis and Modeling
The rainfall-runoff transformation is the reflection of: 1. Excess rainfall input 2. A complex transfer function catchment characteristics 3. Event runoff output determined by
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Rainfall-Runoff Analysis and Modeling
Streamflow
is spatially variable, as determined by:
and
temporally
1. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall input 2. Travel time across hillslope pathways determined by surface topography, soils, vegetation cover, geology 3. Travel time through the channel network determined by length, cross sectional area, flow resistance and surface-groundwater interactions
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Rainfall-Runoff (Hydrological Models)
The rainfall-runoff model is a hydrological model that
determines the runoff signal that leaves the catchment from the rainfall signal received by this catchment. The tasks for which rainfall-runoff models are used are varied 1. Modeling existing catchments for which input-output data exist 2. Runoff estimation on ungauged catchments 3. Prediction of effects of catchment change e.g. land use change, climate change 4. Coupled hydrology and geochemistry e.g. nutrients, acid rain 5. Coupled hydrology and meteorology e.g. global climate models
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Classification of Hydrological Models
Hydrological Models
Deterministic
Stochastic
Lumped
Semi-distributed
Distributed
Space-independent
Space-correlated
Empirical
Conceptual
Physically-based
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Classification of Hydrological Models
(1) Stochastic or deterministic model: models that always provide the same result for a given set of parameters are deterministic. If the model accounts of uncertainty in these quantities and provides a measure of the distribution of possible outcomes, it is stochastic.
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Classification of Hydrological Models
(2) Lumped or distributed model: models that treat the entire catchment as a single unit are lumped, while distributed models discretize a domain into small elements. Both methods have advantages and disadvantages.
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Classification of Hydrological Models
(3) Conceptual or physically-based model: a conceptual model relies on storage volumes and fluxes that may only represent the catchment response and have parameters that cannot be associated to measurements. Physically-based models attempt to parameterize processes using equations for which parameter values can be readily measured.
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Classification of Hydrological Models
Lumped models Parameters do not vary in space Low data requirements Limited physical representation Semi-distributed models Parameters partially vary in space Compromise (input data - complexity) Distributed models Parameters fully vary in space Most advanced approach, high accuracy Data extensive modeling
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Classification of Hydrological Models
Event-process models Designed to simulate individual events Emphasis on infiltration and surface runoff Peak discharge and volume Continuous-process models Designed for long-term simulations Emphasis on all hydrologic processes Drought and water balance
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Examples of Hydrological Models
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Selection of Hydrological Models
General guidelines for model selection:
1. Ease of use: skill required, ease of interpreting results, assumption required by model. 2. Availability of data: ability to use readily available data, ability to handle small and variable time increments, data accuracy and data resolution. 3. Availability of models: cost to operate in terms of computing time and hardware system. 4. Application to management activities: number of parameters predicted, sensitivity to change in management activities. 5. Broad regional coverage: ability of a model to operate in various hydrological areas, extrapolation of model. 6. Accuracy of prediction: ability to predict relative change and absolute effects needed to calibrate model, repeatability of model predictions, error between actual and predicted values for volumes.
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Schematic Hydrological Modeling Protocol
Define purpose Field daa Conceptual model Comparison with field data Code selection Selected code suitable? No Code modification Field daa Model building Field daa Yes
Performance criteria Calibration Validation Simulation Presentaion of resuls Postaudit
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Steps in Catchment Modeling
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Selected Simulation Models in Hydrology
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HEC-HMS
The Hydrologic Engineering Centers (HEC) Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS)
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HEC-HMS
The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HEC-HMS) is designed to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes of dendritic watershed systems. It is designed to be applicable in a wide range of geographic areas for solving the widest possible range of problems. This includes large river basin water supply and flood hydrology, and small urban or natural watershed runoff. Hydrographs produced by the program are used directly or in conjunction with other software for studies of water availability, urban drainage, flow forecasting, future urbanization impact, reservoir spillway design, flood damage reduction, floodplain regulation, and systems operation.
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HEC-HMS
The program is a generalized modeling system capable of representing many different watersheds. A model of the watershed is constructed by separating the hydrologic cycle into manageable pieces and constructing boundaries around the watershed of interest. Any mass or energy flux in the cycle can then be represented with a mathematical model. In most cases, several model choices are available for representing each flux. Each mathematical model included in the program is suitable in different environments and under different conditions. Making the correct choice requires knowledge of the watershed, the goals of the hydrologic study, and engineering judgment.
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HEC-HMS
The program features a completely integrated
work environment including a database, data entry utilities, computation engine, and results reporting tools. A graphical user interface allows the seamless movement between the different parts of the program. Program functionality and appearance are the same across all supported platforms.
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Uses of the HEC-HMS
Models the rainfall-runoff process in a catchment based on catchment physiographic data
Offers a variety of modeling options in order to compute UH for basin areas Offers a variety of options for flood routing along streams Capable of estimating parameters for calibration of each basin based on comparison of computed data to observed data
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HEC-HMS (Features)
HEC-HMS is comprised of
a graphical user interface (GUI), integrated hydrologic analysis components, data storage and management capabilities, and graphics and reporting facilities The Data Storage System, HEC-DSS, is used for storage and retrieval of time series, paired-function, and gridded data, in a manner largely transparent to the user
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HEC-HMS (Components)
HEC HEC-HMS model components are used to simulate the hydrologic response in a catchment HMS model components include basin model, meteorologic models, control specifications, and input data A simulation calculates the rainfall-runoff response in basin model given input from the meteorologic model The control specifications define the time period and time step of the simulation run Input data components, such as time series data, paired data, and grided data are often requied as parameter or boundary conditions in basin and meteorologic models
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Basin Model Component
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Basin Model Component
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Basin Model Component
subbasins- contains data for subbasins (losses, UH transform, and baseflow) reaches- connects elements together and contains flood routing data junctions- connection point between elements reservoirs- stores runoff and releases runoff at a specified rate (storage-discharge relation)
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Basin Model Component
sinks- has an inflow but no outflow
sources- has an outflow but no inflow
diversions- diverts a specified amount of runoff to an element based on a rating curve - used for detention storage elements or overflows
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Meteorologic Model Component
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Control Specification Component
The control specifications set the time span of a simulation run Information in the control specifications includes a starting date and time, ending date and time, and computation time step
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Input Data Component
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User Interface
Catchment Explorer
Component Editor
Message Log
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Catchment Explorer
The catchment explorer was developed to provide quick access to all components in HECHEC -HMS project For example, the user can easily navigate from a basin model to a precipitation gauge and then to a meteorologic model without using menu options or opening additional windows The catchment explorer is divided into three parts: Components, Compute and Results
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Component Editor
When a component or sub-component in the Catchment Explorer is active, a specific Component Editor will open All data that can be specified in the model component is entered in the Component Editor Any data required will be indicated with a red asterisk
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Message Log
Note, warming, and errors are shown in the Message Log These messages are useful for identifying why a simulation run failed or why a requested action, like opening a project, was not completed
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Desktop
The Desktop holds a variety of windows including summary
tables, time-series tables, graphs, and the basin model map The basin model map is used to develop a basin model. Elements (sub-basin, river reach, reservoir, etc.) are added from the toolbar and connected to represent the physical drainage network of the study area
Background maps can be imported to help visualize the catchment
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Developing an HMS Project
To develop a hydrologic model, the user must complete the
following steps: 1. Create a new project. 2. Input time series, paired, and gridded data needed by the basin or meteorologic model. 3. Define the physical characteristics of the catchment by creating and editing a basin model. 4. Select a method for calculating subbasin precipitation and enter required information. Evapotranspiration and snow melt information are also entered at this step if required. 5. Define the control specifications. 6. Combine a basin model, meteorologic model, and control specifications to create a simulation. 7. View the results and modify the basin model, meteorologic model, or control specifications as needed.
37 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Example 5-1
A small undeveloped watershed has the parameters listed in the following tables. A unit hydrograph and Muskingum routing coefficients are known for subbasin 3, shown in Fig. E5.1(a). TC and R values for subbasins 1 and 2 and associated SCS curve numbers (CN) are provided as shown. A 5-hr rainfall hyetograph in in./hr is shown in Fig. E5.1(b) for a storm event that occurred on June 19, 1983. Assume that the rain fell uniformly over the watershed.
Use the information given to develop a HEC-HMS input data set to model this storm. Run the model to determine the predicted outflow at point B.
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Example 5-1
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Example 5-1
Muskingum coefficients: x = 0.15, K = 3 hr, Area = 3.3 sq mi
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
The following slides illustrates the general steps
for setting up a new project in HEC-HMS and the corresponding steps for running the model for Example 5-1
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
1. Begin by starting HEC-HMS and creating a new project. Select the File New menu item. Enter Example 5-1 for the project Name and Tutorial for the Description. Select a desired directory to store the project files in. Set the Default Unit System to U.S. Customary and click the Create button to create the project.
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
2. Set the project options before creating gages or model components. Select the Tools Program Settings menu item. Set Subbasin loss to SCS Curve Number, Subbasin transform to Clark Unit Hydrograph, Subbasin baseflow to Recession, Reach routing to Muskingum, Reach loss/ gain to None, Subbasin precipitation to Specified Hyetograph, Subbasin evapotranspiration" to None, and Subbasin snowmelt to None. Click the OK button to save and Project Options close the window.
43 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Example 5-1 (Solution)
3. Begin creating the basin model by selecting the Components Basin Model Manager menu item. Create a new basin model with a Name of Basin 1
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
4. Create the Element Network: The Basin 1 will be represented with three subbasins, one routing reach, and two junctions. Open the new basin model map by selecting the Basin 1 model in the Catchment Explorer. Use the following steps to create the element network: 1. Add three subbasin elements. Place the icons by clicking the left mouse button in the basin map. 2. Add one reach elements . Click first where you want the upstream end of the reach to be located. Click a second time where you want the downstream end of the reach. 3. Add two junction elements (name the first junction A and the second B). 4. Connect all the elements, place the mouse over the subbasin icon and click the right mouse button. Select the Connect Downstream menu item. Place the mouse over the junction icon and click the left mouse button. Connect subbasin 1 and 2 downstream to Junction-A. Then connect upstream junction-A to the downstream junction-B, using a reach. Connect subbasin 3 downstream to junction-B. The basin should look like the figure shown in the next slide
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
5. Enter all the information for each subbasin using the given information. Double-click on subbasin 1 (or use the catchment explorer and place the mouse over subbasin 1) and fill the information as shown in the figure. Do the same for subbasin 2. For subbasin 3, repeat the same process, but refer to steps 6-9 for the transform method
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
6. For subbasin 3, select User-Specified Unit Hydrograph for the transform method
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
7. The input unit hydrograph for subbasin 3 can be entered from Components Paired Data Manager menu item. Create a new unit hydrograph curve with a Name of Table 1
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
8. Table 1 will be added to the catchment explorer. Place the mouse over Table 1 and from the component editor enter the information shown in the figure. Select Table and enter the given data for the unit hydrograph of subbasin 3
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
9. A gain place the mouse over subbasin 3 and select Transform, then select Table 1 for the unit hydrograph as shown in the figure
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
10. Enter the data for reach 1. Select Muskingum for routing method, and enter the K and x values. Enter that there are two subreaches in the reach
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
10. Begin creating the meteorologic model by selecting the Components Meteorologic Model Manager menu item. Click the New button in the Meteorologic Model Manager window. In the Create A New Meteorologic Model window enter Met1 for the Name
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
11. Open the Component Editor for this meteorologic model by selecting it in the Catchment Explorer. In the Component Editor make sure the selected Precipitation method is Specified Hyetograph. Set the Include Subbasins option to Yes for the Basin 1
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
12. Select Specified Hyetograph and make sure to choose Gage 1 for all subbasins as sown in the figure
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
13. The input data for the Hyetograph can be entered from Components Time Series Data Manager menu item. Create a new precipitation gage with a Name of Gage 1
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
14. From the Catchment Explorer, select Gage 1 and entered the information as shown in the figure
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
15. Enter the data for Gage 1 as shown in the figure
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
16. Create the control specifications by selecting the Components Control Specifications Manager menu item. In the Control Specifications Manager window, click the New button and enter Control 1 for the Name
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
17. In the Component Editor, enter 19Jun1983 for the "Start Date" and 21Jun1983 for the "End Date. Enter 12:00 for the "Start Time" and 00:00 for the "End Time. Select a time interval of 30 Minutes from the Time Interval drop-down list.
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
18. A simulation run is created by selecting the Compute Creat Simulation Run menu option. Click the New button in the Simulation Run Manager window. After clicking the New button, a wizard opens to step the user through the process of creating a simulation run. First, a name must be entered for the simulation run, then a basin model, a meteorologic model, and a control specifications must be selected.
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
19. The new simulation run is added to the Compute tab of the Catchment Explorer
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
20. To run the model, Select Compute option. Or from the toolbar menu, select Compute Run menu
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
21. View Model Results: Graphical and tabular results are available after a simulation run, an optimization trial, and an analysis have been computed. Results can be accessed from the Catchment Explorer or the basin model map.
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
22. View model results at junctionB: Select B from the Catchment Explorer. Choose Graph, Summary Table, or Time-Series Table to see the result
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Example 5-1 (Solution)
23. The flow hydrograph at the catchment outlet (junctionB) should looks like the following figure
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Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in the Faria Catchment
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Study Outline
Objectives Research Needs and Motivations Methodology Study Area Data Collection and Analysis Modeling
Model Setup Model Parameterization Model Application Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Modeling
Management Options Conclusions
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Objectives
The objective of this research is to obtain dependable estimates of naturally available, water resources in arid and semi-arid environment of the West Bank, Palestine The newly coupled TRAIN-ZIN model was used in this study to evaluate the availability of surface water resources in the Faria catchment Such evaluation can be utilized in the development of best management practices that can be adopted to manage the scarce water resources in the catchment
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Research Questions
Follow up to the above objectives, a few questions are raised
What are the active runoff generation processes in arid and semi-arid regions? What is the best hydrological model that can be used to assess the runoff generation process in arid and semi-arid regions? How can we provide improved estimations of catchment initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, infiltration rate,.)? How do we characterize the TRAIN-ZIN model uncertainties? How can we use the TRAIN-ZIN model in assessing the runoff generation under land use and climate changes scenarios? What are the total available water resources in the Faria catchment? What are the proper water resources management options for the most efficient water use in the Faria catchment?
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Research Needs and Motivations
Population growth Limited water supplies Increasing water demands Inefficient management strategy Environmental pollution Lack of better understanding Occupation
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Research Needs and Motivations
This situation has compelled the motivation for conducting a hydrological modeling to better understand and to evaluate the water resources availability in the Faria catchment This is essential to provide input data for a management system and to enable the development of optimal water allocation policies and management alternatives to bridge the supply-demand gap under the present and expected future changes, in land use and climate conditions
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Methodology
Research Needs and Objectives Geography Topography Climatology Geology & Soil Springs & Wells Rainfall & Runoff Land use & Infiltration Hydrological Network
Characterization of the Study Area
Parameters Determination
Data collection
Litrature Review Field Experiments
Calibration Validation
Model Simulation
Sensitivity Analysis Uncertainty Assessment
Data Analysis Data Processing
GIS Excel
Modelling Global Change Scenarios
Simulation of Water Management Options Setup GIS Database Conclusions and Perspectives Model Building Coupled TRAIN & ZIN Models
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Faria Catchment (Characteristics)
Located in the northeastern part of the West Bank and extends to the Jordan River It is characterized as a arid to semi-arid region with an area of 320 km2 (6% of the West Bank) Topographic relief changes significantly throughout the catchment The mean annual temperature changes from 18 oC at the head of the catchment to 24 oC in the proximity to the Jordan River
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Regional Location Map of the Faria Catchment
Faria Catchment (Rainfall)
The winter rainy season is from October to April The rainfall in the catchment varies with space and time The rainfall distribution within the catchment ranges from 650 mm at the headwater to 150 mm at the outlet to the Jordan River
1600 1400 1200 Nablus Tubas Tammun Taluza Beit Dajan AL-Faria
Rainfall (mm)
1000 800 600 400 200
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
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Faria Catchment (Water Resources)
In the Faria catchment, water resources are either surface or groundwater There are 70 wells in the catchment; of which 61 are agricultural, 4 are domestic and 5 are Israeli controlled wells Within the catchment 13 fresh water springs exist The streamflow of the catchment is a mix of: Runoff generated from winter storms Untreated wastewater Fresh water from springs provides the catchment baseflow
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$ Z Y # Y # Y # $ Z Y # Z $ Z $ Z $ Z $ Y Y # Y# # # Y Y # Y # Y# # Z $ Y # Y Z $ Y # Y# # Y Z $ Y # Y # Y # Y # Y# # Y Y # Y # Z $ Y # Y# # Y Y #
1 8- 18/01 4
Y #
# Y Z Y $ # Z $ Y # Y # # Y Y # Y Y # Y # Y# # Y # Y# # Y # Y Y # Y # Y # # Y Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y Y # Y# Y# # Y # Y # Y # Y Y# # Y#
Catchment Boundary Springs Domastic Wells Agricultural Wells Israeli Controlled Wells Surface Water Network
0 5 10 Kilometers
which
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Rainfall Data (1/2)
4 TBRs were installed
630.5 Talluza
#
Y # Daily Gauge & TBR Tubas 415.2
577.4
Y # Daily Gauge & TBR Y # Daily Gauge & TBR 322.3 Tammun
#
549.0
Rainfall data (5-min time step) (2004-2007)
431.7
#
642.6
# Daily Gauge
589.1 TBR Y # Salim
262.1
#
379.1 Daily Gauge # 261.0
#
198.6 Daily Gauge #
#
# # Y
Catchment Boundary Catchment Boundary Existing Rainfall Stations Suggested TBRs Rainfall Existing Rainfall Stations Stations
208.2
#
161.6
#
9 Kilometers
Cumulative rainfall data
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Rainfall Data (2/2)
For the other 10 stations, a filling missing data
formula was used IDW method was used to average the pintwise rainfall measurements over the entire catchment
N
N
C a tch m en t B o u n d a ry E v 1 (4 -6 /0 2 /0 5 ) 1 0 3 .6 0 1 - 1 1 1 .9 9 7 1 1 1 .9 9 7 - 1 2 0 .3 9 2 1 2 0 .3 9 2 - 1 2 8 .7 8 7 1 2 8 .7 8 7 - 1 3 7 .1 8 2 1 3 7 .1 8 2 - 1 4 5 .5 7 8 1 4 5 .5 7 8 - 1 5 3 .9 7 3 1 5 3 .9 7 3 - 1 6 2 .3 6 8 1 6 2 .3 6 8 - 1 7 0 .7 6 4 1 7 0 .7 6 4 - 1 7 9 .1 5 9
0 3 6 9 Kilom eters
C a tch m en t B o u n d a ry E v 1 (4 -6 /0 2 /0 5 ) 5 9 .3 9 1 - 72 .9 6 5 7 2 .9 6 5 - 86 .5 3 9 8 6 .5 3 9 - 10 0 .1 13 1 0 0.1 1 3 - 1 1 3 .68 7 1 1 3.6 8 7 - 1 2 7 .26 1 1 2 7.2 6 1 - 1 4 0 .83 4 1 4 0.8 3 4 - 1 5 4 .40 8 1 5 4.4 0 8 - 1 6 7 .98 2 1 6 7.9 8 2 - 1 8 1 .55 6
0 3 6 9 Kilom eters
IDW (4 stations)
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IDW (14 stations)
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Runoff Data
2 Parshall flumes were constructed at the upper part of the catchment One at Al-Badan sub-catchment (83 km2) outlet and the other at Al-Faria sub-catchment (56 km2) outlet
Z $ $ Z
Catchment Boundary Z Flumes $ Main Stream Al-Badan Sub-catchment Al-Faria Sub-catchment Lower Faria Catchment
0 3 6 9 Kilometers
Runoff data (10-min time step) were collected for the three rainy seasons 2004-2007
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The Coupled TRAIN-ZIN Model Structure
Coupling was done by Anne Gunkel in the context of her PhD dissertation
The TRAIN-ZIN Coupling Scheme
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Model Setup (Channel Network)
The channel network was prepared 544 channel segments with an average length of 850 m adjoined by 1088 small sub-catchments with an average area of 0.295 km2
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232
2 31
230
2 35
234
236
38 2
20
207 7
2 03
225
237
23
205
2 226
23
199
240
2 16
218
21 2
227
2 19
01 2
2 00
2 41
2 14
215
206
217
208
2 13
211
209
20 2
7 19
196
195
194
186
243
18
172
18 1
85
187
273
1 93
275
167
177
274
1 69
162
145
248
249
254
146
144
253
80
25 2
255
17
2 77
251
265
3 03
137
7 25
1 89
24 7
3 18
250
2 76
168
9 17
4 18
16 6
1 88
1 91
170
228
220
2 21
222
223
229
2 42
44 2
198
224
17
210
175
2 46
19
17 3
17 8
272
2 45
180
1 90
27
176
27
161
13 9
130
1 42
156
1 35
1 58
293
3 21 3 37
62 2
1 33
9 6
28
2 96
356
4 26
270
2 31
3 34
3 50
3 04
14
2 95
59
15
336
310
1 57
160
3 11
143
320
155
2 63
1 41
3 13
1 51
12
302
126
260
2 87
344
96
2 88
28
10 1
3 41
28 5
3 16
2 98
114
117
1 20
35 4
1 13
56
98
326
355
3 64
1 16
97
366
1 0 7
8 1 1
1 19
10 5
106
102
1 10
3 33
3 70
61
3 86
87
60
347
94
0 33
385
64
54
53
1 33
3 81
109
390
1 08
3 24
63
37
10 4
58
5 32
3 88
31 7
0 0 1
305
6 30
34 2
340
115
3 00
12
122
124
66
18
29
345
65 3
361
267
131
28 9
99
319
30
327
3 63
127
2 59
1 40
26
30
30 9 31 5
3 39
4 31
3 38
3 08
26
290
351
11
88
3 29
377
93
81
3 69
50
82
4 8
90
43
34 6
83
91
44
3 73
68
76
35
397
398
67
75
26
48
74
72
34
22
21
409
41 2
416
420
40
4 15
47
1 41
417
4 21
7 40
40 6
65
395
39
99 3
4 08
40 4
4 03
66
71
32
20
39
31
38
4 30
18
37
30
28
423
4 3 9
424
427
4 45
4 43
4 34
438
44
442
425
4 33
452
432
464
4 44
44
45
4 63
46
9 45
455
48 34 82
4 80
4 86
79
4 85
5 04
49
500
501
5 03
5 19
5 14
5 28
30
5 33
53 4
54 0
5 38
526
539
54
5 42
9 Kilometers
5 44
# #
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
543
527
164
1 48
165
1 36
149
279
1 50
25
294
3 16
3 15
283
281
138
284
3 58
152
3 35
13
2 29
357
35
134
297
36
2 91
12
323
62
3 43
352
5 12
3 28
123
258
3 53
112
389
372
384
332
57
3 49
103
55
378
79
85
111
86
62
348
59
37 9
380
382
80
95
89
39 2
387
83
3 91
92
393
5 2
51
4 6
42
376
394
368
375
8 7
45
36
27
14
13
10
4 0
12
367
374
49
Catchment Boundary Segments Nodes Polygons Al-Badan Sub-catchment Al-Faria Sub-catchment Lower Faria Catchment
77
25
41
24
23
4 19
5 40
40
69
73
70
40
4 10
4 14
41 8
422
43
33
4 29
3 41
19
428
7 43
436
435
29
16
17
15
426
449
448
447
6 4 4
3 45
462
4 7
4 75
468
9 473 46
4 60
457
467
450
4 51
8 6 45 45
474
4 72
5 46
6 46
1 47
47
481
84 4
488
489
478
7 48
2 49
491
49 4 493
495
509
477
5 05
510
490
5 06
498
50
5 08
51 1
51
502
513
4 99
496
51 5
51 6
21
522
520
5 23
8 51
5 24
52 5
7 51
5 29
532
531
535
537
53
Model Setup (Runoff generation map)
A runoff generation map was created 8 different terrain types were mapped
N
Infiltration Rate (mm/hr)
Double rings infiltrometer was used to determine the infiltration rate for different terrain types
Double-Rings-Infiltrometer
400 Terrian C 350 300 250 200 Terrian F 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Terrian G Terrian H Terrian D Terrian E
Catchment Boundary Runoff Generation Map A B C D E F G H
0
Infiltration Test Locations
Time (min)
Infiltration Tests Results
9 Kilometers
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Parameterization
The parameter values for the TRAIN-ZIN model were Measured directly in the field capacity and channel geometry) (infiltration
Estimated from the literature (e.g. hydraulic conductivity, porosity, channel roughness, field capacity and others) and Recorded (climatic parameters)
83 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications, Calibration and Validation (1/3)
The traditional method of calibration (trial-and-error process) was used 4 rainfall events were available for model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
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Model Applications Calibration and Validation (2/3)
After alternating calibration of event 1 and event 2, a
common set of parameters were obtained
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Model Applications Calibration and Validation (3/3)
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Model Applications (Events Rainfall)
Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y #
Y # Y #
Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y #
Y # Y #
Y #
C atch m e nt B ou nda ry R ain fall Station s Y # E v en t 1 R ainfall (m m ) 59 - 7 3 73 - 8 7 87 - 1 00 10 0 - 11 4 11 4 - 12 7 12 7 - 14 1 14 1 - 15 4 15 4 - 16 8 16 8 - 18 2 0
Y #
Y #
Y #
9 Kilom eters
C atch m e nt B ou nd ary R ainfa ll Station s Y # E ven t 2 R a infall (m m ) 40 - 4 9 49 - 5 9 59 - 6 8 68 - 7 7 77 - 8 7 87 - 9 6 96 - 1 06 10 6 - 11 5 11 5 - 12 4 0
Y #
Y #
Y #
9 Kilom eters
Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y #
Y #
Y # Y #
Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y # Y #
Y # Y #
Y #
C atch m e nt B ou nd ary R ainfa ll Station s Y # E ven t 3 R a infall (m m ) 26 - 3 5 35 - 4 3 43 - 5 2 52 - 6 1 61 - 6 9 69 - 7 8 78 - 8 7 87 - 9 5 95 - 1 04 0
Y #
Y #
Y #
9 Kilom eters
C atch m e nt B ou nd ary R ainfa ll Station s Y # E ven t 4 R a infall (m m ) 24 - 3 5 35 - 4 6 46 - 5 7 57 - 6 8 68 - 7 9 79 - 9 0 90 - 1 00 10 0 - 11 1 11 1 - 12 2 0
Y #
Y #
Y #
9 Kilom eters
87
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications Event Modeling (Calibration)
Model performance
88
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications Event Modeling (Validation)
Model performance
89
Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications Continuous Modeling
Continuous Simulation of the Three Rainy Season 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/07: (a) Daily Rainfall, Al-Badan Sub-catchment; (b) Al-Faria Sub-catchment (c) the Entire Faria Catchment
90 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications Transmission Losses Simulation
For event 1 (SEOF), nearly half (0.54) of the simulated runoff was reached the catchment outlet after the transmission losses took place whereas For event 2 (IEOF), one third (0.29) of simulated runoff was reached the catchment outlet
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
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Model Applications Evapotranspiration Simulation
For the rainy day 9 of February 2006, actual evapotranspiration is considerable whereas for the dry day 5 of February 2007, actual evapotranspiration is small
92 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Model Applications Seasonal Water Balance
Rainfall Evapotranspiration Percolation Runoff Soil Storage
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Valuse (MCM)
Season
Seasonal Water Balance (October-April)
93 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Assessments
In order to assess the coupled TRAIN-ZIN model sensitivity to different parameters uncertainties, a series of sensitivity analyses were undertaken
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Scenario Modeling Impacts of Land Use Change (1/3)
Scenario 1: Urbanization, the simulated runoff response to an increase in built-up areas of 10% and 50% respectively was obtained
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Scenario Modeling Impacts of Land Use Change (2/3)
Scenario 2: Land reclamation, it is a common practice nowadays in the upper Faria catchment (mainly in Al-Faria subcatchment) that farmers in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture are changing the cover to grassed land agriculture areas
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Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Scenario Modeling Impacts of Land Use Change (3/3)
Scenario 3:
Extensions of the scattered and poorly managed olive areas to more dense and well managed olive areas. As a result the generated runoff expected to decrease due to management practices that enhance the soil infiltratibility (e.g. ploughing, soil tillage and terraces)
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Scenario Modeling Impacts of Climate Change (1/3)
Peer and Safriel (2000) summarized the currently most likely climate scenarios for the region Scenario 1: By 2020, mean temperature will increase of 0.3-0.4oC and reduction in precipitation by 2% to 1% Scenario 2: By 2050, mean temperature will increase of 0.7-0.8oC and reduction in precipitation by 4 % to 2%
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Scenario Modeling Impacts of Climate Change (2/3)
Under the GLOWA-JR project, climate simulations for the Near East and the Jordan River Region were studied The climatic scenarios are based on the IPCC A1B and A2 emissions scenarios and two different GCMs were used: Scenario 3 (A1B): By 2021-50, mean temperature will increase 1-1.25oC and reduction in mean annual precipitation by (0 - 50 mm) Scenario 4 (A2): By 2021-50, mean temperature will increase 1.75-2oC and increase in mean annual precipitation by (50 -100 mm)
99 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Scenario Modeling Impacts of Climate Change (3/3)
Scenario 3 (A1B) Scenario 4 (A2)
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Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Surface Water Assessment
available volume of streamflow that lost in winter season, downstream is 4 MCM The annual obtainable water resources are estimated at about 19 MCM The annual water demands (agricultural and domestic) are estimated at about 21 MCM Resulting in a deficit of 2 MCM between supply and demand
The
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Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Rainwater Harvesting
Gould and Nissen-Petersen (1999)
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Hydrologic Simulation Models
Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Urban Rainwater Harvesting System
Assuming that the rooftops runoff represents about 50% of the generated built-up areas runoff and a consumption rate of 70 liters/capita/day Rainwater harvesting from rooftops can fulfill the domestic demands for nearly 24,000 inhabitants for more than 4 months from May to September when the water resources are very limited
103 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Rural Rainwater Harvesting System
Although the catchment areas of the proposed cisterns accounts only for 15% of the entire catchment, the flood generation out of these areas are 30% and 62% for event 1 and event 2
104 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Spring Water Harvesting
No pumping is required More than 14 MCM/year available without cost The water is fresh and free from pollution It is proposed to build a deep enough box into a hillside of the spring mouth to access the spring water source This box allows water to enter from the bottom and fill up to a certain level depending upon the spring yield and the filling time of the box
105 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Construction of Irrigation Ponds
Irrigation pond is proposed to be built for each farm along the water course to collect the streamflow for irrigation use
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Management Options Wastewater Treatment and Reuse in Agriculture
About 1.5 MCM/year of wastewater effluent from Nablus city is discharged to the streams and mixes with the fresh surface water without any treatment It is proposed to construct a wastewater treatment plant to stop this increasing threat and to use the treated effluent for agricultural purposes The reuse of treated wastewater for agricultural purposes in the Faria catchment can be used as strategy to release the spring fresh water for domestic use and to improve the quality of stream water to reduce the environmental degradation in the catchment
107 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Management Options Outstanding Challenges
1. The sustainability of water resources management in the Faria catchment is being challenged by five important factors: Technical because our scientific understanding of the physical phenomena of rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, seepage, sediment transport and flooding are still insufficient Financial because the existing water resources are poorly managed and the demands of the growing population are urgent Environmental because of declining water quality and increased urban and agricultural pollution Institutional and legal because of weak regulatory and legal framework required to implement policies efficiently regarding allocation, management and pollution of water resources in the Faria catchment Political because the political situation in the region is very complicated and constrains the development of water resources management in the catchment
Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
2. 3. 4.
5.
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Management Options To Summarize
More efforts are needed to manage and save water to shape a better future of the Palestinian Kids
Therefore, It is necessary to go beyond the basic research and undertake demonstration projects for possible application of the proposed management options in the Faria catchment
109 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Conclusions (1/2)
Three years of monitoring rainfall and runoff combined with field campaigns are considered to be the cornerstones for the success of this study
The main research question that was addressed by this PhD research study what is the best hydrological model that can be used to assess the active runoff generation process in arid and semi-arid regions (IEOF and/or SEOF) was answered
Despite difficulties, limitations and uncertainties associated with obtaining observations and measured parameters, this study ended-up with optimistic results for the simulation of single events and entire seasons in continuous mode
110 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Conclusions (2/2)
Rainfall characteristics (mainly the rainfall intensity) and the initial soil moisture content are the main parameter that controlled the runoff generation processes (IEOF and/or SEOF) that took place in the Faria catchment The seasonal water balance which cab be obtained out of the coupled TRAIN-ZIN model is the main input for sustainable water resources management in the Faria catchment The results of this research study show that the impacts of land use and climate changes on runoff behavior are eventdependent and that event characteristics (intensities and duration) as well as the initial soil moisture content should be identified for different scenarios
111 Hydrologic Simulation Models Dr. Sameer Shadeed
Reference
Shadeed, S. (2008). Up To Date Hydrological Modeling in Arid and Semi-arid Catchment, the Case of Faria Catchment, West Bank, Palestine. PhD Dissertation, Institute of Hydrology. Freiburg University, Germany. http://www.freidok.uni-
freiburg.de/volltexte/5420/pdf/Sameer_PhD.pdf
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