Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Monsoon rain likely average in Sept - weather department
Rainfall in September, the last month of the monsoon season, is expected to be average in absence of the El Nino phenomenon, the state-run weather department's last update said on Sunday. El Nino, associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, often causes droughts in Australia and South Asia including India. "The current El Nino neutral condition is expected to continue until early next year," said D.S. Pai, the lead forecaster of the Indian weather office. Rainfall between 90 percent and 110 percent of a 50-year average of about 17 cm for the last month of the four month monsoon season is considered average, according to the specification of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD also retained its average forecast for the June-September monsoon season in absence of the El Nino weather pattern. (Source: Reuters)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Sept 02, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18886 5551 66.01 107.65 1396.1

1.43 1.44 0.46 -1.06 -1.19

1.77 1.36 2.65 1.16 0.03

-2.39 -3.55 8.53 4.43 5.45

8.36 5.56 18.87 13.77 -15.57

.Source: Reuters

Argentina wheat crop yields seen lower without more rain

Argentina's recently planted wheat fields need more rains to ensure good yields, observers said, at a time of high global demand and dwindling stocks at home. "If we don't get rains in the next two to three weeks we will start worrying about yields," said David Hughes, who manages 7,000 hectares of farmland in northern Buenos Aires province. He said recent frosts in Argentina have so far not posed a threat to crops, but dryness is becoming a worry. The South American grains powerhouse is a global wheat exporter with most of its shipments going to neighboring Brazil, where import demand is growing after its own wheat crop has been hurt by frosts. A shortfall in Argentina's crop could exacerbate global supply tensions and fuel the country's already high inflation rate ahead of October's mid-term congressional elections. Argentina's 2013-14 wheat harvest is expected to total 12 million tonnes, up from 10 million tonnes in the 2012-13 crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Argentine fields need showers to moisten the budding plants that have begun carpeting the country's vast Pampas grains belt, but growers have been disappointed by the weather over recent days. (Source: Reuters)

Punjab seeks extension for rice delivery till Sept 30

As Punjab rice millers failed in delivering rice worth about Rs 700 crore to the central pool for 2012-13 paddy season, the state government has sought extension in rice delivery time till September 30. Punjab government has sought another extension in delivering rice valued about Rs 700 crore to the central pool till September 30 as millers have not delivered balance rice to central pool, a senior official of Food Corporation of India said on Monday. Punjab rice millers were supposed to deliver 85.69 lakh tonnes (LT) custom milled rice by June 30 to the central pool for 2012-13 paddy season. Then the period was extended till July 31. However, still as many as 1,000 Punjab rice millers could not deliver 3.98 LT of rice to the central pool for the period 2012-13. As per practice, state owned agencies purchase paddy from farmers on behalf of Centre and then give it to rice millers for its milling and then rice converted out of paddy is to be delivered to FCI. Rice millers attributed the non-delivery of balance rice to the shortage of labour due to paddy sowing and space crunch for storing the crop. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar sector wants ethanol blending scheme up and running

Govt can save $340 m by making 5% fuel blending mandatory As the Government ponders over various moves to conserve foreign exchange in the oil sector, the sugar industry has sought expediting tendering process for ethanol procurement to give the mandatory blending programme a push. Despite Government mandate, public sector oil marketing companies had taken about 5-6 months to finalise the tender issued early this year, which not only delayed the mandatory blending initiative, but also made the sugar mills jittery. As part of measures to contain outflow of foreign exchange on account of import of crude oil and petroleum products, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister M. Veerappa Moily, in a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said that the Government can save up to $340 million in 2013-14 by implementing the 5 per cent mandatory ethanol blending programme. (Source: Business Line)

Cardamom output to fall for second year in a row

Indias cardamom production is set to decline for the second consecutive year in 2013-14, as heavy rains in the key growing areas of Kerala and Karnataka this monsoon season have damaged the crop. For 2012-13, Indias cardamom production declined 6.7 per cent to 14,000 tonnes, compared with 15,000 tonnes in the previous year, primarily due to a severe drought in Keralas Idukki region. This resulted in severe financial stress for farmers, who also had to bear the suspension of auctions in September and October last year. Despite lower production, the prices crashed in the last five months, as the country imported substantial quantities of cardamom from countries such as Guatemala, which supplied low-quality cardamom at lower prices. For this financial year, cardamom production is likely to decline due to heavy rains in major producing regions in Kerala during June, July and August. (Source: Business
Standard)

US struggles with sugar surplus

The US government is struggling to shore up the domestic sugar market as it tries to stave off federal loan defaults by sugar processors for the first time in nine years. Strong domestic production, a surge in imports from Mexico as well as weak international prices has weighed on the US sugar market this year. In its third intervention in the domestic market this year, the US Department of Agriculture last week said it bought sugar from a domestic processor and sold it to an ethanol producer at a loss of almost $3m. The governments sugar-to-ethanol programme is aimed at reducing some of the supply in the market and support prices, but the USDA last week said transportation, volume of sugar feedstock and other concerns appeared to have limited bioenergy company participation. (Source: Financial Times)

Coffee output could be 10% lower than initial estimates

A lowering of the 2013-14 coffee production estimates is on the cards. Coffee Board Chairman Jawaid Akthar said that a 10 per cent drop in the post blossom estimate could not be ruled out. The Board has placed the post blossom estimate at 3.47 lakh tonnes, which is 9.05 per cent higher over the 2012-13 target of 3.20 lakh tonnes. Good blossom showers followed by delayed backing showers and drought and continuous heavy rainfall has affected the crop, causing fruit drop and incidence of black rot and stalk rot in certain high rainfall area,Akthar said. Growers, however, expect production to fall by 20-25 per cent compared with the Coffee Boards conservative estimate of a 10 per cent drop. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a positive note on Monday mainly because of spot demand coupled with heavy rains in the kharif pulses growing regions raising fears of damage to the standing kharif pulses crop. However, prices corrected towards the end on account of profit taking. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.01% and 0.53% lower. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 101.81 lakh ha as on 30 August 2013, up by 15.29 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 30 August was seen at 4.49 la ha, up by 21.35% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in Rajasthan was seen 22.68 lakh ha, up by 20% compared to the corresponding period last year.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Sept 02, 2013 % change Last 3265 3190 Prev day -0.01 -0.53 WoW -0.82 0.44 MoM 15.92 19.16
Source: Reuters

YoY -31.98 -32.67

Spread Matrix
Closing 3265 3190 3251 3293 20-Sep-13 -75 0 -

as on Sept 02, 2013 18-Oct-13 -14 61 0 20-Nov-13 28 103 42 0 as on Aug 31, 2013 Stocks as on 30th Aug 48213 53212 11309 112734 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2012-13. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 31st Aug 47571 53212 11230 112013 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias today. Improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season may support prices at lower levels. However, adequate stock positions may offset the festive demand capping sharp gains. Also, withdrawal of special margins on short side may keep prices under check.
Source: Telequote

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Resistance 3235-3280

3110-3150

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures extended the losses of the previous week and settled lower on Monday on account of receding rains and expectations new season arrivals to commence soon. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.8% and 1.25% lower. In the domestic markets, although area under soybean this season is at record level, concerns over output remain due to excessive rains which have obstructed growth of the crop. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds was recorded at 188.16 la th ha on 30 Aug, 2013, an increase of 12.59 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. Soybean sowing in Maharashtra is up by 17.77% at 37.57 la ha as on th 30 August while, in MP, area under soybean is up 9.4% at 63.51 lakh th ha as on 27 August. International Markets CBOT Soybean remained closed on Monday on account of Labor Day. Prices traded on a positive note last week as warm and dry weather in the US Midwest have raised fears over yield losses in soybean which is in the pod filling stage. Also, export demand further supported and upside in the prices. However, prices corrected towards the end of the week on forecast of improvement in the weather in the coming days. The USDA crop progress report downgraded the good-to-excellent rating to 58% from 62% last week. USDA reported that 84% of the crop is setting pods vs. 95% a year ago. Also, 96% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 99% a year ago. The USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bsh from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bsh. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bsh in July to 220 mn bsh. According to Agro consult, a local analyst, Brazil new soy crop is seen at a record 88.4 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 81.46 mn tn last year.
Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3426.5 3440 3468.5 0 13.5 0 42 28.5 0 as on Sept 02, 2013 18-Oct-13 -87.8 35 0 20-Nov-13 -56.8 66 31 0

Market Highlights

as on Sept 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -2.80 -6.12 -1.25 -0.42 0.15 0.76 -3.07 4.30 0.51 0.65

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3546 3427 1424 3682 3559

MoM 5.07 13.69 5.48 0.51 12.63

YoY -21.55 -14.29 -19.56 -18.98 -19.26

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3546 18-Oct-13 -119.5 20-Nov-13 -106

as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Dec-13 -77.5

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3681.8 3559 3594 3625 20-Sep-13 -122.8 0 -

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 31st Aug 1776 251 2977 644 45111 1180 524 52463 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 Stocks as on 30th Aug 1776 251 2977 644 45162 1180 524 52514

as on Aug 31, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 NCDEX October contract

Source:Telequote

Outlook
Arrivals of early sown soy crop shall commence in the coming weeks and this may keep prices under downside pressure. However, concerns over yield losses in the domestic as well as the US continue and this shall restrict prices from falling sharply even during the peak arrival period.

Technical Chart Soybean

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed prices declined initially taking cues from the weakness in the oilseeds complex on Monday. However, prices recovered sharply on account of good demand for mustard seed amid lean supply period of other oilseeds and settled 0.76% higher. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may trade on a positive note today. However, despite good demand sharp upside may be capped as supplies are abundant due to higher output this season.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Support 3340-3380 3480-3520 Resistance 3470-3520 3595-3630

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures declined on Monday on expectations arrivals of new season soy crop to commence soon which would ease supplies in the coming weeks. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.9% and 1.19% lower on Monday. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 699.15 694.85 43.89 2430 554.10 Prev day -0.90 -1.19 0.25 0.96 -2.69

as on Sept 02, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Aug '13 Futures

WoW -0.22 -0.88 2.93 -2.13 -0.25

MoM 4.91 5.52 4.23 5.65 12.97

YoY -11.73 -13.32 -22.44 -17.57 -0.70

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 699.15 694.85 680.25 673.3 20-Sep-13 -4.3 0 18-Oct-13 -18.9 -14.6 0 -

as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Nov-13 -25.85 -21.55 -6.95 0 as on Sept 02, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a mixed note today. Comfortable stocks of imported edible coupled with recovery in the Rupee may pressurize prices. However, festive demand coupled may support prices.

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a negative note tracking weakness in edible oils in the domestic markets. However, positive Malaysian palm oil futures supported prices at lower levels. CPO futures settled 0.4% lower. Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Monday on expectations that healthy exports will persist into September. Weaker Ringgit also boosted export hopes thus supporting an upside in the prices. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, which may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in August increased 7.5% to 1,511,755 tons tonnes from 1,406,935 tonnes shipped in July. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 0.53% in July against June, while end stocks increased 1%. Exports increased due to Ramadan demand. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 554.1 549.3 545.3 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -4.8 0 -

31-Oct-13 -8.8 -4 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures may trade on a positive note today tracking firm international markets. Sentiment for Malaysian palm oil futures remain positive on hopes of healthy exports to continue in the month of September thereby keeping stock levels lower.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Support 686-690 547-551 Resistance 700-704 559-564

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
A spectacular rally in the Jeera prices was witnessed on Monday on expectations of robust overseas demand amid escalating Syrian tensions. Jeera futures on Monday Prices on Monday have also breached an important resistant level of Rs 13785 per qtl on Monday, which spurred technical buying. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. (Source: Agriwatch) In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin Singapore is being offered at $2,100/tn (FOB Mum) while Europe at $2,300/tn (CNF). (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13775 14195 5175 5264 Prev day 1.24 3.82 2.06 0.61

as on Sept 02, 2013 % Change WoW 0.82 4.55 0.31 2.49 MoM 1.51 8.96 -4.33 5.41 YoY -10.85 -1.63 -7.16 -12.82

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 13775 14195 14382.5 14547.5 20-Sep-13 420 0 18-Oct-13 607.5 187.5 0 -

as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Nov-13 772.5 352.5 165 0 as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Sep-13 89 0 18-Oct-13 193 104 0 20-Nov-13 335 246 142 0 as on Aug 31, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 30th Aug Process 1322 2652 3974 8546 NCDEX Sept contract 57 142 199 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 6,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 5175 5264 5368 5510

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a positive note on account of good overseas as well as domestic demand. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due rising tensions in Syria, one of the major supplier of this spice.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 31st Aug 1382 2637 4019 8546 Qty in Process 9 121 130 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures gained marginally on account of fresh export as well as domestic demand. Festive demand from the domestic markets has supported prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.06% and 0.61% higher respectively. The regulator has imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013 to curb excess volatility.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode were reported at 2,200 bags and 5,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported th at 0.51 lakh ha as on 28 August, as against 0.53 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.64 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a positive note today extending gains of the previous day. Fresh export as well as festive demand may support prices. However, huge carryover stocks coupled with favorable climate may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Sept 03, 2013

Support 14000-14100 5140-5200 Resistance 14300-14400 5320-5380

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
rd

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a positive note on Monday due to pick up in demand ahead of the festive season and settled 0.3% higher. However, ample supplies and selling pressure from the mills capped sharp gains. An increase in the import duty to curb the inflows also supported prices at lower levels. Export demand on the back of a weak Rupee also supported prices at lower levels. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in th 48.74 la ha as on 30 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3013 `/qtl 477.8 $/tonne 363.11 $/tonne -0.18 -0.02 0.30 Last 3034

as on Sept 02, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.07 -0.33 -0.10 -1.10 -0.79 MoM YoY -0.38 -15.26 -0.13 -2.15 -3.48 -13.94 -15.64 -17.27

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3034.15 3013 3032 3052 20-Sep-13 -21.15 0 18-Oct-13 -2.15 19 0 -

as on Sept 02,2013 20-Nov-13 17.85 39 20 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 31st Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 31, 2013 Stocks as on30th Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE traded on a flat note and settled 0.02% lower while ICE Sugar remained closed on Labor Day holiday. Ample supplies due to higher crushing in Brazil have kept prices under check. Prices increased earlier due to rains and cold weather in Brazil raising fears of frost and crop damage. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 10.3 mn tn last year. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.91 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August, up 15% from the 2.53 mn tn produced in the second half of July. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 16.749 mn tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1, up 9.3 percent from a year ago. According to Datagro, Centre-South output for 2013/14 is seen at 34.18 mn tn against 34.09 mn tn last year.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may trade on a mixed note. Festive demand is expected to support prices. However, ample supplies, selling by the mills and expectations of a sugar surplus may cap gains and pressurize prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Support 2986-3000 Resistance 3022-3030

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
rd

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures corrected on Monday on account of profit taking and settled 0.38% and 0.93% lower. Prices gained last week on expectations of delay in harvesting by around 15 days due to heavy rains. Also, demand from millers, and yarn exports supported prices at lower levels. The government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1035 22480 83.7 89.4

as on Sept 02, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.38 0.29 -0.93 -0.53 0.12 -0.64 0.28 -0.50 MoM YoY 0.29 #N/A 14.17 27.44 -2.08 9.91 -1.87
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

3.35

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 22480 21190 20920 31-Oct-13 0

as on Sept 02, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -1290 0 -1560 -270 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 111.65 th la ha on 30 Aug 2013 as against 112.83 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.78 la ha as on 26 August 2013, up by 14.3% compared to the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done th on 3 la ha as on 27 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In AP, th cotton sowing was undertaken on 19.9 la ha as on 28 August 2013 as against 21.17 la ha last year.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures remained closed on Monday on account of Labor Day. Prices declined last week on subdued mill demand. Also concerns from China due to cancellation of some export orders have pressurized prices. The USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 47% against 46% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 20% against 23% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note. Demand from millers as well as yarn exporters may support prices. However, weak international markets coupled with higher sowing may pressurize prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Support 1023-1029 22130-22300 Resistance 1042-1050 22670-22850

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday | 3 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as guar gum prices continued to trade on a bullish note for the eight consecutive sessions and hit the 4% upper circuit limit on Monday. Guar complex, which saw a significant slump in the prices since the relaunch of the contract in May 2013, have shown signs of recovery in the last three weeks. Excessive rains (above 20% of the LPA in the week ended 30 August) may have an adverse impact on the yield. Supplies have declined in the last 2-3 weeks as farmers are not liquidating their stocks at lower levels. All these factors along with weakness in the Indian rupee supported an upside movement in the guar complex. Huge stocks, higher acreage and expected higher production in the new season beginning October 2013 have exerted downside pressure on the guar prices since past 2-3 months. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and despite of this farmers have increased acreage in Rajasthan amid favorable monsoon this season.
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Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 6100 `/qtl 20879 `/qtl 16800 `/qtl 4.02 6.41 4.10 Last Prev day 7725 7.29

as on Sept 02, 2013 % change WoW 29.73 27.08 30.71 26.79 MoM 46.62 45.93 41.17 43.10 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 7725 6100 5980 5940 18-Oct-13 -1625 0 -

as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Nov-13 -1745 -120 0 20-Dec-13 -1785 -160 -40 0 as on Sept 02, 2013 20-Nov-13 -4598.55 -520 0 20-Dec-13 -4538.55 -460 60 0 as on Aug 31, 2013 Stocks as on 30th Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

North- west India, the largest guar growing belt has received 20 percent th above average rains since the beginning of the monsoon season till 30 August. During the last week, the rains were 47 percent above the long period average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guar seed acreage as on 27 August, 2013 stood at 34.3 lakh hectares compared with 26.58 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 20878.55 16800 16280 16340 18-Oct-13 -4078.55 0 -

Guar seed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage remained higher this season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 31st Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guar seed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. However, Fuelled by demand in China and the US, guar gum export from India in April-May rose nearly 12 per cent but realisation fell 57 per cent due to lower prices. (Source: Business standard)

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar complex is expected to continue to trade on a positive note to bullish note as overall sentiments have turned positive. Prices may continue to gain on expectations that the prolonged excessive rains if continue, may hamper the guar crop yield. Also farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 03, 2013 Support 5960-6030 5830-5900 16490-16640 16490-16640 Resistance 6170-6230 6030-6100 16950-17120 16950-17120

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