Bio-fuels and hybrids

Prof. Wai Cheng Sloan Automotive Lab, MIT

1

The backdrop

Transportation and Mobility

Transportation/mobility is a vital to modern economy Transport of People Transport of goods and produce People get accustomed to the ability to travel
3

Transportation needs special kind of energy source

Vehicles need to carry source of energy on board Hydrocarbons are unparalleled in terms of energy density For example, look at refueling of gasoline
~40 Liters in 2 minutes (~0.25 Kg/sec)

Corresponding energy flow = 0.25 Kg/sec x 44 MJ/Kg = 11 Mega Watts

Liquid hydrocarbons !
4

What is in a barrel of oil ?

(42 gallon oil ~46 gallon products)

Typical US output
Lubricants Other Refined Products Asphalt and Road Oil Liquefied Refinery Gas Residual Fuel Oil Marketable Coke Still Gas Jet Fuel Distillate Fuel Oil Finished Motor Gasoline 0.90% 1.50% 1.90% 2.80% 3.30% 5.00% 5.40% 12.60% 15.30% 51.40%

Source: California Energy Commission, Fuels Office

US Use of Petroleum by sector

25 Millions of Barrels/day 20 15 10 5 0 1970
Transportation Industrial Electric utilities Commercial Residential

1980

1990 Year

2000

2010

Source: US Dept. of Energy

6

Oil Supply (annual average up to 2007)

100 90

Million Barrels/day

80 70 60

Others
50 40 30 20 10

OPEC US

0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year
Hubbert peak Source: EIA
7

The world Hubbert peak

(excluding OPEC & Russian production) 2003

Source: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/publications/npr_strategic_significancev1.pdf

Petroleum price
Decrease in demand, increase in non-OPEC supply
120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Constant 2004$ $ of the day Iran/Iraq War Iranian Revolution Yom Kippur War Arab Oil Embargo

Saudi increase production

2008 av. value up to June; 6/6/08 @$118/Barrel

$/Barrel

Gulf War

Iraq war Demand of emerging market; limited refinery capacity

9/11 Oil from North Sea, Alaska

Sources: Data from EIA; event labels from WTRG Economics 9

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel

Million metric tons of Carbon/year 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Total Liquid fuel 10 Liquid fuel 103 Total 102 104

Year

Year

Source: EIA

10

The drive to bio-fuel

Increasing demand of liquid fuel for transportation Population Society affluence Drive for lower CO2 production Perceived decline of petroleum reserve Fuel price Government Policy Tax credit Required bio-fuel content

11

What is bio-fuel?

12

Dominant biofuels
Sugar based (corn, sugarcane, ) Cellulosic based (switchgrass, wood, ) Ethanol

Usage
E10, E20, E85,

Crop based (rapeseed, soybean, ) Wasted oil/ animal fat Algae

Compatible with current engine technology and fuel infra structure

Bio-diesel

B10, B20, .

(BTL fuel not included in this discussion)13

Example: Ethanol production from corn

Ethanol fuel Resources: Energy Materials Ethanol + CO2 Labor Fermentation

Purification (removal of water, )

Sugar Starch

Corn

By-products

14

Example: bio-diesel production

Bio-diesel (esters) Resources: Energy Materials Labor Purification (removal of glycerol, alkaline, fatty acid, ) Esters and glycerol

Transesterification using alcohol (methanol) with alkaline catalyst Oil (tri-glyceride) Mechanical or solvent (hexane) extraction + water removal Soy, rapeseed,
Tri-glyceride
Alkaline Catalyst (KOH)

Esters

Glycerol

CH2-OOC-R1 R-OOC-R1 | CH-OOC-R2 +3ROH R-OOC-R2 +(CH2OH)2-CHOH | CH2-OOC-R3 R-OOC-R3

(typically 8-22 C to 2 O)

15

Combustion characteristics of bio-fuel

Cetane number s.g. LHV (MJ/kg) LHV (MJ/L) B10 LHV (MJ/L) B20 LHV LHV B10/ LHV B20/ (MJ/L) Diesel Diesel (by (by vol.) vol.)

Diesel Soybean oil methylester Rapeseed oil methylester Sunflower oil methylester Frying oil ethylester

45-55 50.9 52.9 49 61 Octane number

0.820 0.885 0.882 0.880 0.872 s.g.

43.22 37.01 37.30 38.53 37.19 LHV (MJ/kg)

35.44 32.76 32.90 33.91 32.41 LHV (MJ/L)

35.17 35.19 35.29 35.14 E10 LHV (MJ/L)

34.91 34.93 35.14 34.84

0.992 0.993 0.996 0.991

0.985 0.986 0.991 0.983

E85 LHV LHV E10/ LHV E85/ (MJ/L) Gasoline Gasoline (by vol.) (by vol.)

Gasoline Ethanol

95 107

0.780 0.785

44.00 26.90

34.32 21.12

33.00

23.10

0.962

0.673

Bio-ester data from Graboski and McCormick, Prog. Energy Comb. Sc., Vol. 24, 1998

16

Stoichiometric requirement for different fuels

18 16
stoiciometric

Gasoline and diesel

Gasoline with 11% MTBE O/C = 0

14 B100 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 O/C = 1 Methanol Gasoline with 10% Ethanol

O/C ratios of bio-diesel esters ~ 0.12

E85

Ethanol O/C = 0.5

(A/F)

1.5

2 2.5 3 Fuel H to C ratio

3.5

4
17

Relative CO2 production from burning different fuel molecules

C. Amann, SAE Paper 9092099 18

Effects of Oxygenates on PM emission

AVL Publication (by Wofgang Cartellieri in JSME 1998 Conference in Toykyo)

19

Bio-fuel combustion properties

Bio-diesels and ethanol are fundamentally clean and attractive fuels to be used in engines The use of these fuels as supplements to petroleum base fuel are compatible with current engine configuration and fuel infra-structure Practical issues can be adequately handled by engineering Fuel quality Engine calibration Materials compatibility, viscosity, Burning the fuel is the least of the problem !!!

20

Status of bio-fuel production

21

World liquid fuel production (2005)

HYDROCARBONS RENEWABLES

MT = Million tons BGJ = Billions of giga (1018)Joules

Source: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/Brazil_SR_e3.pdf

22

Liquid fuel supply projection

Millions of barrels per day oil equivalent
120

100

80

60

40

20 Source: ExxonMobil JSAE meeting, Kyoto, July 23-26, 2007 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

23

US bio-fuel capacity
US biofuels US harvested crop land (US agriculture census 2002), hectare 1.23E+08 US all distillate use (diesel+jet+power gen etc.) EIA2007; L/yr 3.34E+11 US gasoline use, EIA 2007; L/yr 5.40E+11

Limit of Limit of Energy production production ratio of (gal) (L) limit to gal/acre L/hectare demand 5.08E+02 4,756 2.30E+02 2,153 1.02E+02 955 6.00E+01 562 9.00E+01 843 8.20E+01 768 2.00E+02 1,872 1.80E+03 16,850 3.44E+02 8.00E+02 3,217 7,489 1.54E+11 6.99E+10 3.10E+10 1.82E+10 2.73E+10 2.49E+10 6.08E+10 5.47E+11 5.85E+11 2.65E+11 1.17E+11 6.91E+10 1.04E+11 9.44E+10 2.30E+11 2.07E+12 1.63 0.74 0.33 0.19 0.29 0.27 0.64 5.78 0.71 1.71

bio-diesel palm oil coconut rapeseed soy peanut sunflower jatropia (SE Asia) algae (?) ethanol corn sugar cane (Brazil)

1.04E+11 3.96E+11 2.43E+11 9.21E+11

Crop based bio-fuels do not have enough capacity to meet the liquid fuel demand !!!
Yield dependent on location and weather 24

Algae: micro-seaweeds
Issues
Production Need high lipid content species Need fast growth species Growth in dense environment Harvest techniques Oil extraction

Courtesy of Prof. Bob Dibble, UC Berkeley

25

Current largest algae plant (production of algae for salmon feeding)

Hawaii
Courtesy of Prof. Bob Dibble, UC Berkeley 26

Sustainability

27

Energy balance Example: Corn ethanol in US

Ethanol from corn Several studies of the overall energy budget

P = energy used in production
feedstock production/ transport + processing

E = Energy of the ethanol output Return (%) = (E P) / E

Studies
Return = - 29%

Verdict: Substantial environmental and economic cost; return not clear

Pimentel and Patzek (2003, 2005): negative return USDA (Shapouri et al 2002, 2004): positive return
Return* = +5.6% Return* = +40% if by products (Corn gluten meal, etc.) are accounted for

* For comparison purpose, these figures were converted from the values of (E-P)/P of +5.9% and +67% in the original publication

28

Other bio-fuels
Pimentel and Patzek also estimated energy budget for other biofuels. Returns: Ethanol from switchgrass = -50% Ethanol from wood biomass = -57% Bio-diesel from soybean = -27% Bio-diesel from sunflower = -118% Other more positive estimates: Bio-diesel from rapeseed = +32% (EU) Bio-diesel production = +324% (US National Bio-diesel Board) Outlook: NOT CLEAR New technology needed to change the picture

29

Technical difficulties of producing liquid fuel from plants

Glucose fermentation produces significant CO2 out and energy loss Hf per mol C6H12O6 2C2H5OH + 2CO2 + 219.2 KJ
of carbon atom -67.8 KJ -117.3 KJ - 393.5 KJ

Cellulose much more difficult to break down than sugar

Glucose

Source: Wikipedia

Cellulose

30

Effect of government policy on bio-fuel Current US demand for ethanol is driven by government regulations and incentives
Ethanol flex-fuel vehicles produced because of the 74% credit towards CAFE requirement

(E85 vehicle equivalent mph = mpg x 1.74)

Gasoline oxygenate mandate, and phase out of MTBE Energy bill (Aug. 05) mandated a threshold of 7.5 billion gallons (180 million barrels) production by 2012 Tax subsidy
blenders tax credit $0.51/gallon alcohol $0.051/gallon fuel tax exemption for gasohol minimum 10 vol % alcohol

31

Economic impact of crop-based bio-fuel

Example: Corn ethanol in US (~20% of total corn production in 2007)
Annual fuel ethanol production
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Fresh whole milk retail price (up to May, 08)
4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 Annual average or averaged up to current month

Millions of barrels

$ per gallon

1995

1996

1997

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007 Jan 07

1998

1999

400

Spot price 5/12/08: $ 2.50/gal

Cents per gal

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

U.S. All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon) )

May 08 spot price: $2.50/gal Retail price: $3.80/gal Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 08

2005

2008

32

Carbon intensity
(net mass of CO2 produced per unit fuel energy)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel

33

Carbon intensity

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel

34

Other environmental impact Water resources Fertilizer Soil Bio-diversity Plant waste treatment

35

Closure
Bio-diesel and alcohols are excellent fuels for transportation use Good combustion characteristics Compatible with current engine technology Sustainability Bio-fuels from crops are not likely to make any significant impact on the global liquid fuel supply picture
Land capacity Effect on food price

Further development on other feed stocks needed

Algae for bio-diesel production Cellulosic alcohol
36

Closure (continue) Sustainability issues Energy budget Water use CO2 intensity especially with land use replacement Bio-diversity Other issues
Bio-fuel plant waste treatment Resources requirement
37

Hybrid vehicles
Configuration: IC Engine + Generator + Battery + Electric Motor Concept Eliminates external charging As load leveler
Improved overall efficiency

Regeneration ability Plug-in hybrids: use external electricity supply

38

Hybrid Vehicles
External charging for plug-ins Regeneration

Parallel Hybrid
MOTOR ENGINE

Battery/ ultracapacitor DRIVETRAIN

External charging for plug-ins

Regeneration

Series Hybrid

ENGINE

GENERATOR MOTOR

Battery/ ultracapacitor DRIVETRAIN Regeneration

External charging for plug-ins

Power split Hybrid

ENGINE

GENERATOR MOTOR

Battery/ ultracapacitor DRIVETRAIN

Examples: Parallel hybrid: Honda Insight Series hybrid: GM E-Flex System Power split hybrid: Toyota Prius
39

Hybrids and Plug-in hybrids

Hybrids (HEV) Stored fuel centered Full hybrid Mild hybrid /power assist Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) Stored electricity centered Blended PHEV Urban capable PHEV AER/ E-REV

From SAE 2008-01-0458 (GM)

40

From SAE 2008-01-0456 (Toyota)

Engine/ motor sizing

Peak onboard supply/ Vehicle demand power (%)

160
From SAE 2008-01-0458 (GM)

140 120 100 Engine 80 60 40 20 0 Hybrid Conversion PHEV UrbanCapable PHEV E-REV Motor Motor Engine Engine Engine

The optimal component sizing and power distribution strategy depend on the required performance, range, and drive cycle

Motor

Motor

41

The reduced load/ speed dynamic range required from the engine offers design opportunities

Honda Insight 1.0 L engine

From SAE 2000-01-2216 (Honda)

42

HEV TECHNOLOGY

Toyota Prius Engine: 1.5 L, Variable Valve Timing, Atkinson/Miller Cycle (13.5 expansion ratio), Continuously Variable Transmission 57 KW at 5000 rpm Motor - 50 KW Max system output 82 KW Battery - Nickel-Metal Hydride, 288V; 21 KW Fuel efficiency:
66 mpg (Japanese cycle) 43 mpg (EPA city driving cycle) 41 mpg (EPA highway driving cycle)

Efficiency improvement (in Japanese cycle) attributed to:

50% load distribution; 25% regeneration; 25% stop and go

Cost: ~$20K
43

Efficiency improvement: Toyota Hybrid System (THS)

A: Increase by changing operating area B: Increase by improvement of engine

SAE 2000-01-2930 (Toyota)

Efficiency improvement (in Japanese 10-15 mode cycle) attributed to: 50% load distribution; 25% regeneration; 25% stop and go

44

Operating map in LA4 driving cycle

Toyota THS II Typical passenger car engine
8 BMEP (bar) 8 Data from SAE 2004-01-0164

6 BMEP (bar)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Speed (rpm)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

45

Cost factor
If $ is price premium for hybrid vehicle P is price of gasoline (per gallon) is fractional improvement in mpg

Then mileage (M) to be driven to break even is

$ x mpg M= Px
(assume that interest rate is zero)
46

Cost Factor
Example: Honda Civic and Civic-Hybrid Price premium ($, MY08 listed) mpg (city and highway av.) hybrid improvement in mpg(%) = $7155 ($22600-15445) = 29 mpg (42 for hybrid) = 45%

At gasoline price of $4.00 per gallon, mileage (M) driven to break even is

$7155 x 29 = 115,000 miles M= $4 x 45%

(excluding interest cost) 47

Barrier to Hybrid Vehicles Cost factor difficult to justify especially for the small, already fuel efficient vehicles Battery replacement (not included in the previous
breakeven analysis)

California ZEV mandate, battery packs must be warranted for 15 years or 150,000 miles : a technical challenge

48

Hybrid Vehicle Outlook

Hybrid configuration will capture a fraction of the passenger market, especially when there is significant fuel price increase Competition Customers downsize their cars Small diesel vehicles Plug-in hybrids? Weight penalty (battery + motor + engine) No substantial advantage for overall CO2 emissions Limited battery life
49

Sales figure for hybrid vehicles

Sales (thousands)

300 200 100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% of new light duty vehicle sale

400

50