Demographic profile of Japan

Adit Bhardwaj 3rd year Dept. Of Electrical Engineering

Japan
Abstract: This paper discusses the demographic features of Japan. The population size and changes and trend of the country are presented using some of the basic demographic variables like birth rate and death rate. Some basic population indicators such as sex ratio at birth, maternal mortality rates, infant mortality rates, mean age at marriage and HIV/AIDS prevalence, are touched upon. Some of the demographic problems that Japan is facing are discussed and a brief overview of population polices are pointed out.

Introduction
A countrys population is the source of its vitality, but it is also the cause of the assorted costs involved in maintaining a reasonable standard of living. Particularly for a resource poor island nation like Japan, a population that is excessively large or excessively small presents a serious problem. Size is not the only issue, the populations structure is also an important factor. For example, a severe imbalance between the genders can affect the stability of marriage and the family in a monogamous society. And if the number of senior citizens is large by comparison with the working-age population, the latter will bear a heavy burden supporting them, and the pension system may collapse. Some of these issues are discusses for Japan.

Population Trends
From most recent census, Japan's population is 128,057,352 and for March 2012 the estimated population is 127,650,000 making it the world's tenth most populated country. Japan's population density is 336 people per square kilometer according to the United Nations World Populations Prospects Report as of July 2005. It ranks 37th in a list of countries by population density. The total fertility rate in Japan fell from 2.75 births per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.08 births in 1955-1960. Total fertility remained at the near-replacement level between 1960 and 1975, and it resumed falling slowly, reaching 1.49 births in 1990-1995. During the same period, the life expectancy at birth for both sexes combined increased, from 63.9 years in 1950-1955 to 79.5 years in 1990-1995. The fertility decline and the increase in life

expectancy in Japan brought about an increase in the proportion of the elderly. In 1995, the retired-age population (65 years old and over) represented 14.6 per cent of the total population, as compared to only 4.9 per cent in 1950. The ratio of the working-age population (15-64 years old) to the retired-age population increased from 11.0 in 1920 to 12.2 in 1950. It later decreased rapidly, to 4.8 in 1995. The notable increase in the median age of the population, from 22.3 years old in 1950 to 39.7 years old in 1995, is also indicative of the rapid demographic ageing that has taken place in Japan. The population in Japan is close to peaking and will soon begin a prolonged decline. Declining fertility combined with increasing longevity will cause the Japanese population to age rapidly. The young-age share of the population, now 15 per cent of the total population, will fall to 11 per cent by 2050. The working-age population, now almost 70 per cent of the total will fall to 55 per cent in 2050. Meanwhile, the old-age (65+) share will grow from 17 per cent of the population today to more than 36 per cent in 2050. No nation has ever experienced such rapid ageing. The population pyramids for Japan at three points in time, 1950, 2000 and 2050 clearly shows that the young cohorts that make

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up the base are shrinking while the elderly cohorts at the top are increasing. Not only will the young age groups(the groups that would give birth to the children) decline, so also will the working age groups. Only the dependent elderly will increase, thus placing a heavy burden on a shrinking working age population.

Causes of the decline in mortality rates: The real causes of the fertility decline are delayed age of marriage and increased lifetime celibacy. Women are delaying marriage to take advantage of increased opportunities for higher education and improved employment opportunities.The proportion of Japanese women who are married has steadily declined because of higher ages at marriage and an increasing proportion of women who never marry at all. Causes of the decline in mortality rates: The achievement of modern medicine and public health under the direction of the government, improvements in the quality of life and nutritional levels through economic growth, and the increased prevalence of concepts of sanitation are the factors that worked together for lowering the mortality rate.

CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGEING

2. Decline in saving and investment: The changing age structure have three major impacts on Japans productive capacity. It reduces rates of saving and capital accumulation. It will shrink the labour force and population ageing may slow the growth in total factor productivity. 3. Labour supply is shrinking: Much of the economic growth of Japan occurred in the latter half of the 1950s and 1960s when the labour force was growing rapidly and well-educated young workers were willing to work for relatively low wages. But now the labour force is grow slowly and will continue to age hence decreasing the labour growth rate. 4. Impact on the pension and health systems: The Japanese social security system has three major components: medical care, pensions and welfare. Measured by expenditures, public pension schemes are the most significant components of the system. People live longer, healthier lives, but toward the end of their lives, they have longer periods of dependence on others. Over 4.9% of the elderly population are bedridden. Hence there is a heavy stress of the fund due to large aging population in providing them pension and health care. The share of the elderly in total health care costs has risen from about 14 per cent in 1975 to 31 per cent in 1995; by 2025, the elderly are projected to account for half of total costs.

Demographic statistics
Population:127,368,088 (July 2012 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 13.5% (male 8,927,803/female 8,268,937) 15-24 years: 9.8% (male 6,385,033/female 6,046,609) 25-54 years: 38.5% (male 24,299,387/female 24,686,224) 55-64 years: 14.4% (male 9,166,111/female 9,177,111) 65 years and over: 23.9% (male 13,097,558/female 17,313,315) (2012 est.) Median age total: 45.4 years male: 44.1 years female: 46.9 years (2012 est.) Population growth rate: -0.077% (2012 est.) Birth rate: 8.39 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) Death rate: 9.15 deaths/1,000 population (July 2012 est.) Net migration rate: 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.) Urbanization: urban population: 67% of total population (2010) rate of urbanization: 0.2% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.) Major cities population TOKYO (capital) 36.507 million; Osaka-Kobe 11.325 million; Nagoya 3.257 million; Fukuoka-Kitakyushu 2.809 million; Sapporo 2.673 million (2009) Sex ratio: at birth: 1.06 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.08 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 1 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.76 male(s)/female total population: 0.94 male(s)/female (2011 est.) Infant mortality rate total: 2.21 deaths/1,000 live births male: 2.44 deaths/1,000 live births female: 1.97 deaths/1,000 live births (2012 est.) Life expectancy at birth: total population: 83.91 years male: 80.57 years female: 87.43 years (2012 est.) Total fertility rate: 1.39 children born/woman (2012 est.) HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate: less than 0.1% (2009 est.) HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS: 8,100 (2009 est.) HIV/AIDS deaths fewer than 100 (2009 est.) Sanitation facility access improved: urban: 100% of population rural: 100% of population total: 100% of population Nationality: noun: Japanese (singular and plural) adjective: Japanese Ethnic groups Japanese 98.5%, Koreans 0.5%, Chinese 0.4%, other0.6% Religions: Shintoism 83.9%, Buddhism 71.4%, Christianity 2%, other 7.8% Languages Japanese Literacy definition: age 15 and over can read and write total population: 99% male: 99% female: 99% (2002) School life expectancy (primary to tertiary education): total: 15 years male: 15 years female: 15 years (2008) Education expenditures 3.5% of GDP (2007) Maternal mortality rate 5 deaths/100,000 live births (2010) Health expenditures 9.3% of GDP (2009) Physicians density: 2.063 physicians/1,000 population (2006) Hospital bed density: 13.75 beds/1,000 population (2008) Obesity-adult prevalence rate:3.1% (2000)

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SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
Social factors palys and important role in the figures shown in previous page. The average age at first marriage in Japan is 29.8 years for men and 28.0 years for women, placing Japan among the latest-marrying countries in the world. Japanese womens views about marriage are changing, younger women agree less that married people are generally happier and more likely to believe it is acceptable for a couple to live together outside of marriage. Womens life cycle expectations are shifting in Japan as girls have more educational opportunities and parents take greater pride in their daughters achievements. Older parents are relying more on daughters and less on eldest sons and daughters-in-law as companions and caretakers in old age. In other developed countries , people think that two can live as cheaply as one but in case of Japan young adults live free of charge with their parents before they get married and hence young people in Japan are waiting longer to marry and more are remaining single that lead to lower fertility. The opportunity costs to women of interrupting their career to raise children are very high, because once one takes time off from a full-time job, it is nearly impossible to return to the same career track. One is instead pushed into irregular part-timeor temporary jobs. As more women obtain good jobs with Japanese companies or in the public sector, these steep opportunity costs create disincentives to quit or take time off to have children.

Demography, Culture,and Policy: Understanding Japans Low Fertility-PATRICIA BOLING

Policies
Childcare In terms of policy, Japan subsidizes affordable high-quality childcare and use sliding-scale fee systems childcare provisions for children under age three.

Source: Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare 2006; Retherford and Ogawa 2006

Immigration: Immigrants help to alleviate the demographic problem of low fertility .They increase overall population size in the short run, low-skilled immigrants from poor countries typically have higher fertility than natives of the high-wage host countries and immigrants tend to be young people of childbearing age and have children after arriving in their new homes. But unlike other low TRF countries Japans laws severely limit immigration and naturalization and hence another contributor to low TRF.

Conclusion
Japan is a small country in terms of land and population but with a very high standard of living and is said to have entered in stage-5 of Demographic Transition Model. It has low fertility and mortality rate. The main problem which Japan is facing currently is of population aging. People are delaying marriages for education and career opportunities and hence increasing the average marriage age. Due to these factors the TRF of the country is at a very low level.

Demography, Culture,and Policy: Understanding Japans Low Fertility-PATRICIA BOLING