Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Heavy rain spells trouble for cardamom plantations
Incessant rains accompanied by strong winds have damaged good number of cardamom plants in almost all the growing areas in the Idukki district of Kerala last week. Consequently, the expectation of a good crop this season has been shattered and it is now being projected as a normal crop. The cardamom market has been steady on matching demand and supply at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu last week. An estimated 25 tonnes of fresh capsules were bought by exporters. 90 per cent of the arrivals were of new crop. Upcountry buyers were also covering. Individual auction average continued to vacillate between Rs 555 and Rs 600 a kg. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 5, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19182 5685 60.86 106.56 1302.6

0.10 0.13 -0.40 -0.36 -0.61

-2.10 -2.51 2.19 1.92 -1.94

-1.61 -3.11 1.05 3.24 7.40

11.54 9.01 9.16 16.59 -18.89

.Source: Reuters

Festive season and excess rain to raise pepper prices

Pepper prices are likely to rally ahead due to inclement weather in Kerala and higher demand during the coming festival season, traders said. Currently, the market is sluggish with buyers keeping minimum inventory and waiting for arrival pressure from Indonesia and Brazil. The Indian market has seen some activity with some imports from Sri Lanka finding their way into the domestic market. "The market was expecting pepper from Indonesia and Brazil to depress the market. It seems they don't have the expected production. Vietnam already sold 95,000 tonne during the first seven months of 2013 and they are not keen to sell more. I think the market will rally up on short supply as traders fill the pipeline," Jojan Malayil of Kochi-based Bafna Enterprises said. The Indian market could rally due to festival buying that kicks in from the coming month and the pepper process could rally higher, he added. Indian spot market price for pepper is currently above R400 per kg. (Source: Financial Express)

Strained supplies push onion price to Rs 50 per kg

Onion prices have soared to Rs 50 per kg in the retail market of the national capital as supplies from Nashik and Rajasthan have come down because of rains. Retail prices at the organised retail shops such as Mother Dairys Safal outlet are ruling at around Rs 40 per kg, but local vendors are charging Rs 50 per kg. Wholesale rate in Delhis Azadpur market has increased to Rs 25-35 per kg, from Rs 18-28 per kg a week ago, Onion Merchant Traders Association President, Surendra Budhiraj said. Supplies from Lasalgoan and Rajasthan have come down substantially due to rains, he said. According to data maintained by National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), wholesale prices in the Delhi and Lasalgoan have increased by around 50 per cent in the last one month. Wholesale price of onion was Rs 16-17 per kg in the first week of July at the Lasalgoan mandi and now it has gone up to about Rs 30 per kg. Budhiraj said the prices would ease once the new crop arrive the market. (Source: Business Line)

World sugar surplus to shrink nearly 70 pct in 2013/14

The world sugar surplus will shrink to 3.5 million tonnes in the 2013/14 crop year that begins Oct. 1, down nearly 70 percent from this year because some countries have reduced output after a drop in prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) said at an industry conference on Monday. Last year's surplus was 11.2 million tonnes and ISO executive director Peter Baron said there were expectations for a lower surplus following signs that China, Russia, the European Union and the United States were rationalizing output. "When everybody is bearish, everyone begins to restrain themselves," Baron said at the International Sweetener Symposium in Napa, California that started on Aug. 2 and ends Aug. 7. Raw sugar prices have fallen to three-year lows on the back of record output that ISO estimates at about 183 million tonnes. Total global output will reach 179 million tonnes in the 2013/14 crop year, according to ISO expectations, with demand at 175.5 million tonnes. He said the third year of surplus will keep pressure on global sugar prices. (Source:
Reuters)

Govt scraps customs duty on rice bran

There will be no customs duty on import of rice bran and rice bran oil cake from October 1, against 15 per cent currently, according to a Finance Ministry notification. As a result, import of rice bran from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh may turn viable. An estimated 50,000 to one lakh tonnes of rice bran could be imported from neighbouring countries, depending on the price parity, said B.V. Mehta, Executive Director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEAI). Rice bran oil is normally extracted from bran through the solvent extraction method. Bran, the brown layer on rice grain, has 10-25 per cent oil content. After extracting the oil, the meal or the rice bran oil cake is used as cattle feed. So far, there were no imports of rice bran as it was unviable due to a high customs duty of 15 per cent. SEAI had recently urged the Government to reduce the customs duty to make imports more attractive to meet rising domestic demand for the oil.
(Source: Business Line)

Rains damage 7% summer soy crop

Heavy rains have taken a toll on kharif soybean production in the country. Although the final estimate on the extent of damage is yet to emerge, initial reports say there has been at least an overall 7% crop loss till date. In some places like Hosangabad district in Madhya Pradesh, loss is around 50%. The regions affected the worst are Hosangabad, Betul and Sagar districts of Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha, Amravati and Akola regions of Maharashtra. As news spread that there might be a crop loss this year, soybean prices appreciated to 3,400 per quintal from 3,200 per quintal within a week. Farmers in Madhya Pradesh, who have planted a record area with soybean, are awaiting sunny days for a good harvest. Leeladhar Singh Rajput, president of Hosangabad-based Krantikari Kisan Parishad, said, "It has been raining continuously and there has been no sunshine. Nearly 50% of the crop in Hosangabad has already been damaged. We are extremely worried over the situation. To save the rest of the crop, we need good sunshine." (Source: Economic Times)

Kharif season sowing completed in 114 lakh hectares in MP

Sowing operations have been completed in about 114 lakh hectares during kharif season in Madhya Pradesh. Last year, sowing operations were accomplished in over 104 lakh hectares. Of the sowing operations completed so far, coarse cereals have been sown in 28,92,000 hectares, pulses in 11,56,000 hectares, oilseeds in 67,14,000 hectares and cotton in 6,21,000 hectares. Similarly, paddy has been sown in 13.16 lakh hectare, jowar in 2.57 lakh hectare, maize in 9.98 lakh hectare, millet 1.68 lakh hectare and other crops have been sown in 1.52 lakh hectare. Tuar has been sown in 4.57 lakh hectare, urad in 5.80 lakh hectare, moong in 1.02 lakh hectare, kulthi in 17,000 hectare, soyabean in 62.09 lakh hectare, groundnut in 2.21 lakh hectare, linseed in 2.39 lakh hectare and other oilseed crops have been sown in 44,000 hectares.(Source: Business
Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana August Futures traded on a positive note on Monday supported by festive season demand in the domestic markets. However, prices corrected from higher levels towards the end of the session on account of profit taking and settled 1.45%. The Spot also settled 1.06% higher. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side will be imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 5, 2013 % change Last 2931 2793 Prev day 1.06 1.45 WoW 4.42 7.96 MoM -4.69 -6.24
Source: Reuters

YoY -41.39 -41.47

Spread Matrix
Closing 2930.65 2793 2844 2933 20-Aug-13 -137.65 0 -

as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Sep-13 -86.65 51 0 18-Oct-13 2.35 140 89 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 Stocks as on 1 Aug 77791 59074 11957 148822
st

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Stocks as on 3 Aug 77059 59064 11957 148080
rd

Qty in Process 160 30 139 329

Qty in Process 160 30 90 280

309

111

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

938

Total

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade on a positive note today as improvement in demand from the stockists is likely to support prices at lower levels. Also, an increase in the margins on the short side may support prices. However, higher sowing of kharif pulses and estimated higher output may cap sharp gains during the intraday. Recovery in the prices may be seen from August onwards as demand will emerge ahead of festivals.
Source: Telequote

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Resistance 2826-2860

2715-2755

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a mixed note yesterday. Prices opened lower on account of an appreciation in the Rupee coupled with weak edible oil prices. However, reports of crop damage in Madhya Pradesh due to excessive rains supported prices at lower levels. Prices ended the session 0.27% lower as overall higher sowing and expectations of a record crop have kept prices under downside pressure. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Southwest monsoon which slowed its pace and was flat to below average in the previous two weeks, recovered significantly during the week ending 24th July 2013. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 28th July in the central India (major soy belt), were 45 percent above th the LPA, while in the week ending 24 July they rains were recorded up by 43 percent in Central India. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds nd was recorded at 173.21 la ha on 2 Aug, 2013, an increase of 19.56 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean futures traded on a flat note with a negative bias as tight supplies supported the prices while favorable weather in US for soybean pressurized prices and settled 0.09% lower. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 63% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 39% of the crop is setting pods vs. 69% a year ago. Also, 79% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 93% a year ago. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.

Market Highlights

as on Aug 5, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.47 4.37 -0.27 -0.09 0.38 -0.09 1.42 -2.76 5.17 4.39

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3391 2931 1330 3463 3210

MoM -9.48 -19.25 -16.26 5.17 -5.81

YoY -24.2 -34.9 -19.7 -23.7 -27.5

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3391 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 2931 2933 2953.5 0 2 0 18-Oct-13 -460 20-Nov-13 -458

as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Dec-13 -437.5 22.5 20.5 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Sep-13 -214.25 39 0 18-Oct-13 -183.25 70 31 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 10 0 61 0 20 91 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3463.25 3210 3249 3280 20-Aug-13 -253.25 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 3rd Aug 73 0 0 73 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 20 101 Stocks as on 1st Aug 73 0 0 73 Stocks as on 1st Aug 1956 615 16676 644 60304 3479 1909 85583

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade on a mixed note today. Higher output expectations may keep prices under check. However, reports of crop damage due to excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh may support prices at lower levels. If rainfall activity moderates in the coming weeks then we may see prices consolidating at current levels amid higher sowing.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 3rd Aug 1876 615 15054 644 59014 3409 1769 82381

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a positive note throughout the day due to improvement in demand coupled with reports of damage of the standing soybean crop. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled 0.9% lower. Comfortable supplies in the domestic markets have also kept prices under check. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note today. Good demand around the MSP level may restrict further fall in the prices while higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp upside.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Support 2873-2902 3168-3190 Resistance 2965-2999 3235-3260
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a negative on the back of comfortable stocks coupled with Rupee appreciation. However, prices recovered from lower due to festive demand and settled marginally lower by 0.26% on Monday. Reports that the Agri Ministry has proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of damage of the soybean crop also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 671.65 662.75 42.72 2310 496.90 Prev day -0.17 -0.26 0.80 0.61 0.24

as on Aug 5, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 3.41 3.66 0.59 2.53 0.69

MoM -2.52 -3.59 -9.55 -2.78 -2.07

YoY -14.07 -15.70 -17.91 -20.26 -12.33

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 671.65 662.75 643.05 615.5 20-Aug-13 -8.9 0 20-Sep-13 -28.6 -19.7 0 -

as on Aug 5, 2013 18-Oct-13 -56.15 -47.25 -27.55 0 as on Aug 5, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may trade on a positive note today on the back of higher soybean prices coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 496.9 489.5 480.4 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -7.4 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note yesterday supported by festive demand and higher KLCE prices. However, an appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains and settled marginally higher by 0.24% on Monday. Malaysian palm oil futures had declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in July increased 4.2 percent to 1,406,935 tonnes from 1,350,311 tonnes shipped during June. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -16.5 -9.1 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX August contract

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to trade on a positive note today due to lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also tend support to the prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX August Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Support 655-659 490-493 Resistance 667-671 500-502

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive note on account of overseas as well as improved domestic demand. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat and settled 0.34% lower on Monday. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,3502,400/tn (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mum).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13545 13055 5300 4708 Prev day 0.12 -0.34 -0.19 -3.05

as on Aug 5, 2013 % Change WoW 0.52 1.32 -3.56 -8.62 MoM -0.78 -0.63 -6.36 -17.26 YoY -18.31 -21.03 0.03 -21.40

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13544.8 13055 13225 13420 20-Aug-13 -489.8 0 20-Sep-13 -319.8 170 0 -

as on Aug 5, 2013 18-Oct-13 -124.8 365 195 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Aug-13 -592 0 20-Sep-13 -534 58 0 18-Oct-13 -422 170 112 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 1st Aug Process 1508 4845 6353 8486 NCDEX August contract 9 6 15 329

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 5,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5300 4708 4766 4878

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices while higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 3rd Aug 1505 4800 6305 8595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 210

Turmeric
Turmeric futures opened higher on account of short coverings coupled with an increase in margins on the short side. However, prices declined sharply towards the end as huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress have mounted pressure on the prices and settled 0.19% and 3.05% lower on Monday. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi stood at 1,000 bags and 2,300 bags respectively on Monday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at st 0.39 lakh ha as on 31 July, as against 0.4 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.46 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade lower extending yesterdays losses on account of the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress as well as huge carryover stocks. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 6, 2013

Support 12860-12960 4550-4630 Resistance 13150-13240 4780-4860
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures witnessed a mild recovery and settled 0.4% higher yesterday on account of lower level buying as well as expectations of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. Export orders as well as an increase in the import duty also supported prices at lower levels. Prices have remained under downside pressure on the back of ample supplies. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka also kept prices under check. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3011 `/qtl 485.2 $/tonne 368.00 $/tonne -1.37 -0.98 0.40 Last 3051

as on Aug 5, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.38 0.20 -0.17 -0.80 -2.13 MoM YoY -0.39 -19.02 1.31 -2.20 1.85 -16.89 -20.41 -24.73

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3051.1 3011 3019 3035 20-Aug-13 -40.1 0 20-Sep-13 -32.1 8 0 -

as on Aug 5, 2013 18-Oct-13 -16.1 24 16 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 1st Aug 1948 5650 21 923 8542 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on 31th July 2548 5650 21 923 9142 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar Futures declined by 0.98% and 1.37% on Monday on profit taking as well as drier weather in Brazil. Production in st Brazil rose 60% to 2.4 mn tn in 1 half of July as against 1.5 mn tn in second half of June. International Sugar Organization expects the global surplus to fall by 70% from 11.2 mn tn in 2012-13 to 3.5 mn tn in 2013-14 marketing year. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to trade on a mixed note. Higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to pressurize prices. However, good export orders coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may limit the downside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Support 2990-3000 Resistance 3019-3026

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas Futures traded on a positive note as the government allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. however, prices corrected towards the end on account of profit taking. Cotton settled 0.7% higher while Kapas settled 0.2% lower. Prices declined earlier on the back of higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country pressurized prices. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 984.5 20230 85.4 90.6

as on Aug 5, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.20 2.50 0.70 4.33 0.09 0.65 -0.60 -2.11 MoM YoY 2.50 #N/A 1.71 11.28 2.06 16.63 -2.58 11.51
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 20230 19670 19660 31-Oct-13 0

as on Aug 5, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -560 0 -570 -10 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 3rd Aug 5000 200 6910 18600 0 0 30710

as on Aug 3, 2013 Stocks as on 1st Aug 5000 1800 102100 18600 0 0 127500

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton traded on a flat note and settled marginally higher by 0.09% on Monday. Prices declined after India allowed CCI to export more cotton coupled with worries of reduced demand from China, the world's top textile market as well as rains in Texas. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 45% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 21% against 22% last week. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to trade higher due to higher export permission coupled with domestic demand. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Support 968-976 19880-20050 Resistance 995-1005 20420-20600
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Tuesday| August 06, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
After witnessing a recovery last week, Guar complex resumed its southward journey and on account of abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. lower level buying as traders were not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization supported prices over the last few days. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 3.79% and 3.97% lower on Monday. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4310 `/qtl 15441 `/qtl 12080 `/qtl -3.97 -2.13 -3.79 Last Prev day 5600 -1.75

as on Aug 5, 2013 % change WoW 7.13 1.41 4.40 0.58 MoM -22.22 -40.39 -23.68 -40.73 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5600 4310 4270 4300 18-Oct-13 -1290 0 20-Nov-13 -1330 -40 0 -

as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1300 -10 30 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3440.75 -80 0 20-Dec-13 -3160.75 200 280 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 Stocks as on 1st aug 59 81 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
nd

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 15440.75 12080 12000 12280 18-Oct-13 -3360.75 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 3rd Aug 69 131 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum prices may continue to decline extending yesterdays losses as overall trend remains negative due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 6, 2013 Support 4160-4240 4160-4240 11800-11940 11800-11940 Resistance 4380-4440 4380-4440 12230-12370 12230-12370
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com