Africa Confidential Vol 54 No 8

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12 April 2013 - Vol 54 - N 8
blue lines
When Uhuru Kenyatta was sworn in as President of Kenya on 9 April, his supporters celebrated a double victory: his narrow win over Raila Odinga and the defeat of Western detractors who predicted that his indictment by the International Criminal Court would undermine Kenyas diplomatic position. The reverse has been the case. Ugandas President Yoweri Museveni led the charge at the inauguration: I want to salute the Kenyan voters...on the rejection of the blackmail by the International Criminal Court. Museveni, whose own government is locked in battle with Western governments over the freezing of over US$300 million of aid funds due to claims of government corruption, reinforced his point: the usual opinionated and arrogant actors were trying to install leaders of their choice in Africa with the help of the ICC. Since Kenyattas election, Western governments have been backtracking on their threat to sever all but essential contacts with the presidency. United States Ambassador Robert Godec met Kenyatta last week and European ambassadors have also sought meetings to resolve any misunderstandings. We hear that British Prime Minister David Cameron now wants a policy of constructive engagement: Kenya is Britains biggest trading partner in the region and will be a hub for East Africas fast-growing oil and gas industry. Relations will be critical for Britains efforts to help stabilise Somalia, where Kenya has deployed several thousand troops.
Mali/France
The campaign stretches out
France commits to a long war just three months after launching its biggest military operation in Africa in 50 years
he official version is that Frances Mali operation has achieved all its objectives the expulsion of jihadist forces from main northern towns and the destruction of several bases in the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains apart from the rescue of seven hostages still held in the region. This week the withdrawal began, with 100 or so French soldiers going home. France had airlifted 4,000 troops to Mali and sent another 2,000 from its bases in Chad and Cte dIvoire. Initially, French President Franois Hollandes government had said that all French troops would be out after elections were organised: they are scheduled for July. However, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who has been sceptical about the operation from the start, announced on a 5 April visit to Bamako that France would maintain a support force of 1,000 soldiers in Mali on a permanent basis. This was Frances first public commitment to a longterm military presence. It was more forceful coming from the cautious Fabius rather than the more bullish Defence Minister, Jean-Yves le Drian.
not so temporary
Until then, Hollandes ministers had insisted that this was an emergency operation and that it would be temporary. After ejecting jihadists from northern Mali, the plan went, French troops would hand over the job to Malian soldiers and the Mission internationale de soutien au Mali (Misma), which drew in forces from a dozen west African countries. The resolution approved by the United Nations Security Council last December envisaged troops from the
Economic Community of West African States playing the front-line role. France would provide logistical and intelligence support and some European Union countries would retrain the national army. Under the original plan, France was not going to send combat troops. Hollande had said categorically that there would be no boots on the ground, although security experts suspected that French special forces would continue the search for Western hostages. After Hollande sent the troops on 11 January to block the jihadist advance towards Mopti, his ministers gave differing reasons for the intervention, ranging from the need to protect Malis sovereignty and to reunite the country, to driving out armed Islamists and fighting a terrorist threat to France and the rest of Europe. Fabius emphasised the temporary nature of the French deployment. Having gone to such lengths last year to differentiate itself from former President Nicolas Sarkozys model of Franafrique policy, Fabius wanted Hollandes Parti Socialiste government to make a clear break with that legacy. At the same time, Hollande and Le Drian, one of his closest allies, said that French troops would remain as long as necessary, until Malian sovereignty was restored and the jihadists defeated. They said that there was no point in sending troops to Mali unless they were able to restore and consolidate security. Budgetary pressure, concern about the longer-term success of the intervention and local issues in France meant ministers were careful to avoid any commitment to a permanent presence. Reporting of the war by French and other international media
Mali/France
CAR
Cte dIvoire
Ethiopia
South Africa Mozambique
Training regime
As the military intervention continues, new problems arise, from the armys broken chain of command to the rainy-season elections.
Lords of misrule
Confusion reigned at the summit on the Central African Republics future and the new rulers could not halt the prolonged plunder of the capital.
Boycotts and masks
Toeing the party online
Somalia/Puntland 10 Pointers 12
Many independents are standing in the local elections but that doesnt lessen the political divide.
The government tries to increase internet access and mobile telephony while restricting free speech and the media.
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AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL
was carefully controlled in northern Mali. Journalists were embedded with the French troops and very little reporting has come from the rapidly moving front line. A month ago, security experts were predicting that French forces would pull back to existing bases elsewhere in West Africa: in Senegal, Cte dIvoire, Burkina Faso and Chad, from where they could fly back if Misma needed emergency reinforcement. Security experts and the wider public in France remained obsessed by parallels with Afghanistan and Iraq. Would France get stuck in the quicksands
Why France is staying on
Training regime
As the military operation in Mali continues, fresh complications arise. Early reports from the European trainers suggest that progress in restoring the discipline and effectiveness of the Malian army will be slow. The first batch of 2,500 soldiers started a course at Koulikoro, 60 kilometres from Bamako, on 2 April. Much of the tuition is aimed at building a better team spirit and restoring the broken chain of command after last years putsch. The course covers human rights and soldiers legal responsibilities towards prisoners and civilians. Human rights groups have already produced damning reports about the behaviour of Malian soldiers, especially towards the Tuareg and Arabs whom they may blame for starting the conflict. This has made efforts at local political reconciliation much harder, let alone any serious consideration of northerners grievances towards the Bamako government. The Chairman of the Commission dialogue et rconciliation, former Ambassador and ex-Armed Forces and Veterans Minister Mohamed Salia Sokona, and Vice-Chairpersons Oumou Tour Traor and Mti ag Mohamed Rhissa, a Tuareg, have been appointed. Other members are yet to be named. Until the negotiations over constitutional reform get under way, the question of political control of the Saharan north, particularly Kidal region, cannot be resolved. Kidal town is in the hands of the Tuareg secularist Mouvement national pour la libration de lAzawad, which tolerates the presence of French and Chadian troops but will not accept the return of the Malian army to the region. This infuriates Bamako, which says such obstructionism is delaying national reunification. The government continues to talk of elections (with a first-round presidential vote on 7 July and a second on 21 July) but the timetable is unrealistic. Few in Bamako believe electoral registration and checking could finish by then, especially in the north, where many records have been destroyed. Rains from July to at least September will create transport problems across Mali. Championing July elections may be intended to placate France and the United States, which want the government to hold the polls, even though the impracticalities are widely known. More problematic than timing is the view of Bamakos political class that they can pick up where they were forced to leave off before the coup in March 2012. With the north apparently reconquered and France offering security support for the foreseeable future, the mainstream politicians enthusiasm for administrative and constitutional reform has waned. They want to hold elections as soon as possible and to restart the political machine set up in the 1990s, after purging the military of any putschists. That plan faces a sizeable obstacle in Captain Amadou Sanogo who, despite his new office-bound role directing reform of the military, still has a substantial following in the ranks mainly among soldiers who are not fighting in the north. l
The French military has also had the chance to get the measure of Misma, which is likely to berestructured as a UN force later this year. The African force now has 6,300 troops in Mali and its numbers could reach 10,000.The first 200 Ivorian soldiers, newly retrained by France, will arrive before the end of April. The capability of the different national contingents varies. The Nigeriens are well regarded and units have now arrived from countries with long experience of peacekeeping and intervention elsewhere, such as Senegal. Mauritania, previously reluctant, has also indicated that it may provide troops; at least they would already be trained for desert warfare. Burundi may also contribute: it has solid experience of serving in the African Union Mission in Somalia, fighting Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen. Yet only the 2,400 Chadian soldiers have been trusted to fight alongside the French in offensive desert warfare against the jihadists. This is why France has concluded that it makes sense to keep 1,000 troops in Mali, where they will presumably focus largely on offensive operations against the Islamists one such has been under way outside Gao over recent days while the African forces concentrate on consolidating security and order in the settled areas of the north. As Fabius put it, the goal is to ensure that all the work done to break the terrorists is not destroyed. The decision is all the more significant given the difficult domestic political context for Hollande at present. It follows reports that the co-chairman of his presidential election campaign had money in the British Virgin Islands offshore tax haven, while Budget Minister Jrme Cahuzac had to resign and has been charged with fraud. As Frances campaign hits more problems within Mali, the security position in neighbouring countries such as Mauritania and Niger is also causing concern. Although the United States Continued on page 11
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or quit without defeating the jihadists? In fact, French strategic planners and their political directors have been refining their approach as events develop, so as to get a clear sense of the likely prospects. In mid-January, Hollande had to set aside the assumption that Misma would take the lead. The immediate threat then was the rapid jihadist advance towards Mopti and the key Svar military airbase in central Mali (AC Vol 54 No 2). Once French troops were on the ground and the militants in retreat, they pressed forward to end Islamist control of northern towns, right up to Kidal, Tessalit and Aguelhok in the central Sahara. By mid-February, French military planners were reflecting on what the longterm challenge would be. They knew that the struggle to hunt down militant groups hiding in the desert or in the Sahel bush near Gao would be slow and difficult. Sporadic attacks by suicide bombers and land mines would continue, while finding the hostages could take months. In spite of the quick early successes, the planners realised their troops might have to stay on much longer to the frustration of a government whose popularity at home was
declining rapidly due to the economy. The experiences of the last six weeks have confirmed this analysis. Despite the killing in late February of Abdel Hamid Abou Zeid, a prominent commander from Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), other key Islamist leaders are still at large, including Iyad ag Ghali, the founder of Ansar Eddine (AC Vol 54 No 3). After a huge manhunt in the Ifoghas massif in the Sahara, there is no sign of the hostages. Meanwhile, the Mouvement pour lunicit et le jihad en Afrique de louest (MUJAO) continues to mount spectacular attacks in Gao and Timbuktu and launched a mine attack between Ansongo and Mnaka, south-east of Gao.
Central african republic
Lords of misrule
Confusion reigned at the summit on CARs future while the new rulers could not halt the prolonged plunder of the capital. The omens are poor
he Ndjamena summit called to resolve the crisis in Central African Republic was nearly as chaotic as Bangui itself. Members of the Communaut conomique des tats de lAfrique centrale (CEEAC) met South African President Jacob Zuma and observers from other countries on 3 April for exchanges that were often heated. Several delegations wanted to prevent the rubber-stamping of the violent seizure of power by the self-appointed President, Michel Djotodia. Chads President Idriss Dby Itno, who had a hand in sparking the Slka revolt but probably did not authorise the coup dtat, hosted a summit which was unusual for its frankness and its genuine exchange of opinion among heads of government. Djotodias most militant opponent in Ndjamena was Zuma, who appeared desperate to make sense of the sacrifice of at least 13 of his best soldiers, who were all killed on the final day of the battle for Bangui (AC Vol 54 No 7). Leaving aside the still murky reasons for South Africas presence in Bangui, Zuma eloquently questioned the other leaders. Why were fellow Africans slating his country for its military presence while French troops were still present? Why, instead, had France not been asked to leave the country? It was only after this question that Zuma seemed to learn for the first time that the French troops were deployed under an international mandate to support troops of CEEACs Mission de consolidation de la paix en Rpublique Centrafricaine (Micopax). The French force was studiously neutral in the fighting, even to the point of risking failing in its own mission to protect French citizens and their property, much of which was looted after Slkas victory. Core discussions centred on the new governments legal status. Djotodia and the unofficial number three in the new team, Noureddine Adam, head of the Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix, had pledged to end the looting in Bangui and elsewhere but it was still going on as Africa Confidential went to press. The African Union and the United Nations, both heavily criticised for their bias in favour of President Franois Boziz Yangouvonda, maintained a hard line, refusing to reward his successor with easy recognition. The UN and AU position contrasted with that of interim Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye, who seemed to want merely an accommodation
that would protect his position, and his personal safety, once he was back in Bangui. His audience in Ndjamena heard only his concern to reach some superficial agreement with the regional powers; he showed no such concern for the predicament of his fellow countrymen. Tiangayes house in Bangui was, in fact, successfully protected by Slka and Micopax soldiers, we hear. Western governments, including France, the United States and European Union, as well as the Organisation internationale de la francophonie, seemed ready to endorse whatever solution Dby wanted to promote, though the OIF later suspended CARs membership. Because of Chads major military commitment in Mali, no one questioned Dbys plans to stabilise CAR, even though he had helped to trigger the crisis. After hours of discussion, Dby announced a new government system for CAR. The agreement said that a new president should be elected by a 97member Conseil national de transition (CNT), with the transition being reduced from the three years envisaged in Januarys Libreville agreement to 18 months. The spirit and the reasoning behind Libreville would be respected. The current Prime Minister and cabinet would stay, despite Slkas overwhelming presence. Other drawbacks included the family connections to Djotodia that dominate key ministerial appointments and the lack of qualifications of others. Some observers believe these factors will ultimately kill the transition process. Despite the worrying similarities between these arrangements and CARs recent political past, the EU Ambassador in Bangui, Guy Samzun, endorsed the plan, noting that Djotodia could indeed be included among the candidates the CNT selected (AC Vol 52 No 5). No one was fooled, however. This was Djotodias de facto coronation and no other serious candidates would be considered. It was Djotodia himself who announced the formation of the CNT on 6 April. Three weeks after Slka seized the capital, normality has not returned to the streets. Looting, rape and killing take place with impunity. Slka fighters who took no part in the Bangui battle arrive still wanting their share of the booty. Now, rumours say that each Slka commander has been allocated an area in which he
can raise money either by continuing to loot private citizens and companies or by demanding protection money. Everyone talks about restoring law and order but nothing is changing on the ground. One reason is that the Slka alliance itself is crumbling. Having united to take power, the rebels have nothing left to do and are not under a central command. Slka fighters and commanders sit atop a hierarchy of plunder. Fighters march into houses and remove cars, televisions, computers and mobile telephones. Then police, military and gendarmes in plain clothes form a second wave, removing refrigerators, clothing and kitchen utensils. Lastly, the young people who were often part of the militias of Bozizs Kwa Na Kwa party, armed with machetes and knives, finish the job. Yet not everyone has been affected by the looting: many Muslim families escaped this time. Micopax and Chadian troops are also said to have been involved in the looting. French troops have hardly been pro-active, even when protecting their own citizens, who were asked to stay at home during the worst of the unrest. They began patrols in the city a week after the takeover and do not arrest anyone. The country is on the brink of a huge humanitarian crisis and the economy has stalled because the looters have removed not only plant but all office equipment. With companies unable to operate, workers have lost their jobs. It is much the same for ministries and other public organisations. Bank branches will not open. Confusion reigns. The new rulers cannot expect budgetary support from the International Monetary Fund or the EU. With no salaries being paid, Bangui will collapse. If money were to reach state coffers, how much would Slka appropriate? The cabinet is not ready to start work. The sponsors and godfathers of the ministers are appointing dozens of special and technical advisors to keep a close eye on their departments. The Prime Minister leans towards the Mouvement de libration du peuple centrafricain led by Martin Zigul, while Djotodia is reconnecting with the Yakoma civil servants who supported President Andr Kolingba. Djotodia was briefly a member of Kolingbas Rassemblement dmocratique centrafricain (AC Vol 42 No 12). Competition for the spoils increases daily. Everything has changed but the political game is much the same. One more chance to rescue the country lies with the next CEEAC summit in Ndjamena on 15 April. If Dby, CongoBrazzaville President Denis SassouNguesso and others take a firm stand and local politicians focus on the needs of the beleaguered populace, the tragic aftermath of the last coup dtat, when Boziz took over amidst much bloodshed in 2003, may not be repeated. l
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Cte dIvoire
Boycotts and masks

Many independent candidates are standing in the local elections but that doesnt lessen the main political divide
t least half of the candidates which the Commission lectorale indpendante (CEI) has accepted for the regional and municipal elections on 21 April are running as independents. On the surface, they have little to do with the two main political currents, President Alassane Dramane Ouattaras coalition and the Front populaire ivoirien (FPI) of ex-President Laurent Gbagbo, who now awaits trial for human rights violations at the International Criminal Court. The two elections will be held concurently: 81 candidates will compete to run the countrys 31 regions, while 659 are standing for mayor in 197 towns, villages or neighbourhoods. Those standing as independents, however, are often linked to the two main groups. Ouattaras coalition comprises his own Rassemblement des rpublicains and the Parti dmocratique de Cte dIvoire of Henri Konan Bdi, another ex-President. This is an unequal partnership: the RDR dominates. The picture is muddied by the Rassemblement des houphoutistes pour
la dmocratie et la paix, named after yet another President, the late founding father Flix Houphout-Boigny. The RHDP has decided to field candidates under its own banner, even though it considers itself part of Ouattaras grand coalition. Finally, there is the Union pour la dmocratie et la paix en Cte dIvoire (UPDCI), a party connected to yet another ex-head of state, the late General Robert Gue, who staged the countrys first military coup, in 1999. The UPDCI is fielding candidates in and around his home area of Man, in the West. The FPI is again boycotting the polls, a hard-line decision taken at the highest level. Its interim Secretary General and Spokesman, Richard Kodjo, says Ouattaras government wants to destroy the party and colonise the cocoa sector on behalf of foreign multinationals. The party also blames the government for the spate of attacks in the west and claims the electoral process is worthless as long as its top officials remain in gaol. It also claims the CEI, headed by Youssouf Bakayoko,
Independents in name
In Abidjans large suburb of Yopougon, seven of nine candidates are standing as independents, with one from the Parti dmocratique de Cte dIvoire-Rassemblement dmocratique africain candidate and the other from the Rassemblement des rpublicains. Another suburb, Abobo, offers a similar picture: five of seven independents, one PDCI, one RDR. The latter happens to be the heavyweight Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy, Adama Toungara. He is a close friend of Nol Akossi Bendjo, who is standing as Mayor of Plateau, Abidjans central business district. Bendjo, though, is running for the Rassemblement des houphoutistes pour la dmocratie et la paix (RHDP). Elsewhere in the country, the picture is the same. In Divo, a stronghold of exPresident Laurent Gbagbo, two candidates will run as independents while the PDCI and RDR have fielded one each. In Dukou, the town of the martyrs in the west, three of the four mayoral candidates stand as independents, one as RDR. The former PDCI Economy and Finance Minister and National Assembly member for the central town of Bouafl, the influential Charles Koffi Diby, is running as RHDP candidate for the leadership of the Marahou Region, where Bouafl is situated. The national political capital (and birthplace of the late President Flix HouphoutBoigny), Yamoussoukro, sees two independents face one RHDP candidate; the city is likely to remain in Houphoutist hands. Bouak, the former rebel capital, has five candidates for mayor, including three independents. One of those is Allou Konan, another old PDCI heavyweight and former Assembly member. In Ferkessdougou, fief of former rebel leader and current Assembly President Guillaume Soro, two independents are running against one RDR candidate, who is likely to win. Soro also has a candidate in nearby Bondoukou. His advisor Hiliassou Kon is (once again) running as an independent. No contests will take place in Kong or Odienn: Kong, in the north-east, will elect the sole candidate, President Alassane Ouattaras brother Tn Birahima Ouattara (nicknamed Photocopie thanks to his resemblance to his brother). Odienn, in the north, will do the same for Nasseneba Tour, Special Advisor to the Assembly President for Political and Social Affairs. Both are under the RDR flag. l
Banny and Bdi
The FPI is not alone in pulling in two directions at once. The governing coalitions junior party, the PDCI, is divided between the current leadership and the youth wing. The younger members are fed up with being led by Konan Bdi, who is 78, but nor do they rate the other PDCI gerontocrat, former Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny, 70, who heads the Commission dialogue, vrit et rconciliation. Banny has clear presidential ambitions of his own. PDCI youth leader Kouadio Konan Bertin has launched stinging attacks on the party leaders, telling them to step aside and allow the party to be reinvigorated. He has strong support but Bdi is believed to favour NGoran Niamien, Economy
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is biased against it (AC Vol 51 No 5). Candidates linked to the FPI will, however, be standing, especially in its traditional strongholds, the cocoa belt in the south and west and the Abidjan suburb of Yopougon. The fact that they are standing as independents explains the large number of these; some have been dubbed masked FPI candidates. The partys overt focus is more on eventually regaining the presidency. Resentment of Ouattaras government remains high among Gbagbos supporters, especially in the west, and the RDRs response is to try to buy loyalty. On 3 April, Interior and Security Minister Hamed Bakayoko gave 200 million CFA francs (US$400,000) to communities in Cavally and neighbouring Gumon for reconstruction after the civil war. The west remains troubled by attacks from neighbouring Liberia by pro-Gbagbo militias and Liberian mercenaries and by land disputes between the local population and mainly Burkinab immigrants. Although the Defence Minister, Paul Koffi Koffi, has promised that the national army, the Forces rpublicaines de Cte dIvoire (FRCI), will ensure security throughout the country, if necessary with the help of United Nations peacekeepers, few find the pledge convincing, especially as applied to the West (AC Vol 53 No 9). The main reason is a hawkish faction in the FPI which still believes in the violent overthrow of the government. Another group within the party disagrees, believing the way forward lies in diligent preparation for the 2015 presidential election. For now, the hard-liners have the upper hand. In a move reminiscent of the intimidation practised by the Jeunes Patriotes under the now-incarcerated former Youth Minister, Charles Bl Goud, the current leader of the Jeunesse du FPI, Justin Koua, has declared that 33 youth delegations will travel around the country to invite the rank and file to stay at home on 21 April.
Ethiopia
Toeing the party online

The government tries to increase access to the internet and mobile telephony while restricting free speech and the media
he government has grown more sensitive to dissenters using the internet. Now it is blocking opposition websites and some social media, and using special programmes to spy on internet users. The restrictions attracted great interest last June when a storm of controversy broke over a draft law proposing up to 15 years in prison for anyone illegally using an internet telephone line or Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), the technology used by Microsofts Skype system. Addis Ababa insisted that the proposals were not aimed at private users. You can Skype as much as you want, said an official spokesman. It then became clear that the purpose of the bill was to protect the state telecommunications monopoly, as VoIP calls can circumvent long-distance charges. Given the Ethiopian governments poor record on freedom of speech, it was not surprising that people assumed the worst about the bill. VoIP had been under occasional bans since as early as 2002, according to the United States campaign group Freedom House. A far greater obstacle to such use of the internet is the extremely low bandwidth available and the low level of internet penetration. A United Nations survey said that only 27,000 broadband subscribers existed in Ethiopia in 2011 and the International Telecommunications Union said only 1.1% of the population
had internet access. Ethiopia thus faces the challenge not only of expanding its network and facilities but also of deciding how tightly to censor them. There are plans to roll out new networks in Addis Ababa, Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions, and to introduce mobile banking facilities via the banking system. The government wants the economy and people to benefit but not opposition groups, dissenters, journalists or, of course, terrorists. During the 2005 parliamentary polls, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front government blocked access to the site Blogger and, after it had accused the opposition of using short message service (SMS) messages to organise protests, all texting was banned, resuming only in September 2007. On 15 February this year, all phone and internet telecommunications in Addis Ababa were cut from morning until after midday. Protests by some Muslims had been expected after Friday prayers following the airing of a documentary, Jihadawi Harekat (Holy War Movement), which linked Muslims on trial in Addis Ababa to Islamists in Somalia and Nigeria (AC Vol 53 No 16). Some Muslim newspapers were forced to close down, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. If the press is not free, it can hardly be expected that the internet would be. Blogger and journalist Eskinder Nega was sentenced to 18 years in gaol last July, accused of
inciting violence through a series of blog posts on diaspora websites. On 1 April, the UN criticised the sentence as a violation of international law. The government claims that some journalists harbour links to the opposition group Ginbot 7, which allows it to cite harsh anti-terrorism laws. International media agencies websites have been blocked, although any government role in this can only be presumed. Sites affected at various times include the Qatari-based Al Jazeera, the Saudi Arabian channel Al Arabiya and Ethiopian diaspora news sites such as Nazaret, EthioForum, Ethiopian Review and Addis Voice. Virtual private networks, which allow users to re-route their traffic through internet service providers abroad such as Anonymizer, HideMyAss and Proxify are restricted inside Ethiopia.
73 websites blocked
Last September, in an attempt to expose global internet censorship, the Open Net Initiative tested the accessibility of websites in Ethiopia and around the world. Open Net, run jointly by Toronto and Harvard Universities and the Canadian internet analysts SecDev Group, found that three types of website were blocked: those with politically sensitive material, those that allow the download of tools to circumvent government restrictions, and sites associated with banned opposition groups such as the Ogaden National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front, Ethiopian Peoples Patriotic Front and Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Party. Of 1,375 websites tested, 73 were found to be blocked in Ethiopia. Aside from controlling access to nonapproved sources of news, the main targets of Ethiopian censorship in the recent past have been Muslim protests and the illness of the late Prime Minister,
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and Finance Minister in his government until the 1999 coup, as his successor. Disgruntled PDCI candidates have also decided to run as independents. Ouattara would have liked the polls to be a decisive show of force for the coalition, especially in the traditional fiefs of the north and the Abidjan suburb of Abobo, but the FPI boycott has denied it this. The coalition has other problems, such as the friction between the parties in the west. In Toulpleu, a town in the Cavally Region that has come under repeated attack by groups based in Liberia, the PDCI candidate for mayor, Denis Kah Zion, is at loggerheads with Anne Dsire Ouloto, the Minister for Solidarity, Families, Women and Children, who is also the RDR candidate for Cavally. An interesting case is that of Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon (RDR), who is widely seen as having his eye on
the presidency (AC Vol 53 No 25). He is popular within his party but also among the PDCI youth wing. Now he is presented as Ouattaras very own candidate for the leadership of the Hambol Region, in which lie the politically sensitive towns of Bouak and Katiola. The ambitious minister is on his way to becoming a challenge to Ouattaras own re-election plans for 2015 but the President may be calculating that Billon is less of a threat when directly under his wing. The coalition is also dogged by speculation about Guillaume Soro, who is Speaker of the National Assembly and who still harbours presidential ambitions. He commands considerable support among the fighters of the former guerrilla army Forces nouvelles, which ran the north. He may now face indictment over massacres in Dukou in March 2011. His former zone commanders (com-zones) ran smuggling
and extortion rackets in all of the northern cities they controlled, including Bouak, Korhogo, Sgula, Odienn and Soros own fief, Ferkessdougou. The com-zones have been rewarded with good jobs in the security establishment and are, for now at least, keeping away from politics. For instance, Issiaka Ouattara (aka Wattao) was appointed in March as deputy in a body overseeing the installation of a large anti-crime camera surveillance system in Abidjan. Lossni Fofana (Loss) used to run Man and is suspected of responsibility for the Dukou killings. He and Chrif Ousmane, who ran Bouak, are important FRCI commanders. Via his frequent Twitter and blog entries, Soro portrays himself as a statesman above the fray, hoping for peaceful elections and giving no sign of concern about possible extradition to the Netherlands. l
South Africa
ANC wields the long knives

The governing party and its partners quarrel bitterly as Zuma clears out his opponents, regardless of the consequences
resident Jacob Zuma and his allies have begun their long-awaited purge of trades unionists, party members and government officials judged to have opposed him at the African National Congress conference in Mangaung in December. His allies call it a mere mopping-up operation but it may be wider than that. The Presidents original plan was to reshuffle only the top leadership of his cabinet and the provincial and city governments, to maintain ANC unity for next years general elections. Yet strategists such as Blade Nzimande, the Higher Education Minister and General Secretary of the South African Communist Party (SACP), apparently urged him to unseat his opponents early, before they had a chance to undermine him. Zuma agreed. Zumas close ally, the ANC General Secretary Gwede Mantashe, has called the campaign a clean-up to stop ill-discipline and factionalism from overrunning the ANC. He says the pro-Zuma party leadership elected in December did not want to be caught flat-footed simply for fear of being seen to carry out purges. In March, Zuma dissolved the leadership of the ANC Youth League, which had supported the national Deputy President, Kgalema Motlanthe, for the party presidency. He also got tough in Limpopo Province, home of ANCYLs expelled President, Julius Malema, who is Motlanthes close ally. Zumas team has dissolved the Limpopo provincial leadership which, with its Premier, Cassel
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Mathale, backed Motlanthe. Zuma appointed his ally Ruth Bhengu as acting Chairwoman of the Limpopo branch, with an interim team led by another Zumaloyalist, Philemon Falaza Mdaka. The Zuma leadership has frozen all awards of government tenders and senior appointments without approval from the ANC National Executive Committee, even though that contravenes Treasury regulations, say NEC sources. The Free State party leadership was disbanded in January and a pro-Zuma team appointed to organise elections for a new one. Free State ANC members who opposed Zuma took the party to the Constitutional Court late last year, claiming the pro-Zuma leaders had been elected at a provincial conference in June that was fraudulent. The Court agreed. The anti-Zuma ANC structures of Gauteng and North West will also be replaced, we hear.
Malemas noose
State prosecuting and tax authorities have tightened the noose around Malema. The party leaders have appointed a proZuma interim committee to run the Youth League and are organising a conference to elect the right (meaning pro-Zuma) leaders. Malema faces charges of fraud and racketeering related to the irregular award of a 52-million-rand (US$5 mn.) tender to a Limpopo company, On-Point Engineering. The South Africa Revenue Services are hounding Malema for what they say is his failure to pay R16 mn.
in taxes. In January, sheriffs seized his Sandton and Polokwane homes and in March, the Asset Forfeiture Unit of the National Prosecuting Authority seized his Limpopo farm, worth some R4 mn. The NPA claimed the properties were acquired with proceeds from fraud, corruption, theft and money laundering. Zumas allies say he is just waiting for the right moment to rid his cabinet of opponents and that will come soon. Motlanthe looks a probable casualty. At first, Zuma had decided to keep him as Deputy President of the country until the 2014 elections. Many of Motlanthes supporters, including Zwelinzima Vavi, General Secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), had warned Zuma that Motlanthe should be allowed to stay on. Now, relations are apparently so bad that Motlanthe and Zuma communicate only through proxies. This does not help in running the cabinet. Motlanthe and his allies accuse Zuma and his team of deliberately making life difficult in the hope that he will leave office of his own accord. After the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Durban on 26-27 March, Motlanthe wrote a memorandum to Zuma complaining that the President had deliberately marginalised him. Zuma had indeed pulled his Vice-President off all the BRICS-related activities, although it was Motlanthe who in 2011 had signed a crucial memorandum of understanding with the Chinese then Vice-President, Xi Jinping, confirming crucial aspects of economic cooperation. Motlanthe apparently blamed Zumas allies for leaking a story to the media claiming that he had used public funds for a holiday in Seychelles. Motlanthe insisted that he had paid for his own holiday accommodation and the state had only paid for his transport. Zumas allies had hoped this would be enough to get
Meles Zenawi. The shock that greeted the news of his death last August, at home and abroad, was testimony to the efficiency of the efforts to block all knowledge of the seriousness of his condition. The government also spies on internet users. In March, Morgan Marquis-Boire from Toronto University and Bill Marczak, a computer science researcher at the University of California, found traces of spyware (computer programmes used to record covertly the activities of internet users) among suspicious emails posted online by Ethiopian sources. A photograph of members of Ginbot 7 was embedded in the email and the researchers found that once the image was clicked on, a programme called FinSpy would install itself on the host computer.
FinSpy, which is made by Gamma International, a British company, records keystrokes and can remotely control webcameras and microphones, compromising emails and other supposedly secure data on the computer. The researchers found that information from the infected computers was then sent by the FinSpy programme to a command centre inside Ethiopia affiliated to an Ethio Telecom Internet Protocol address. The reason we think the Ethiopian government is using FinSpy is because the programme is hosted inside Ethiopia, Marczak told Africa Confidential. Once downloaded, the image of the Ginbot 7 leaders is replaced by a genuine image, so there is no way for users to know that their machine has been infected.
In the aftermath of the 2012 Egyptian revolution, contracts between Egyptian former President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak and Gamma were found in abandoned government offices. In a deal dated 29 June 2012, Gamma offered the Mubarak regime FinSpy software, hardware, installation and training for 287,000 euros (US$377,000). Like most spyware programmes, FinSpy infects only computers running Windows operating systems, not Apples, Marczak said. Shortly after Open Nets research was made public, Britain announced that Gamma International products such as FinSpy would henceforth require government licences, such as arms exports require, before purchases outside the European Union were allowed. l
Losing touch
Some observers see the crisis in the official union movement as the inevitable result of its association with company management and the government and its failure to embrace traditional, grassroots workers concerns about low pay and poor working conditions. The NUM has lost 35,000 members in the North West Province, where Lonmins Marikana mine is located. In last years labour dispute there, workers set a new trend of negotiating wage demands outside
Cosatu splits
There are troubles, too, within the ANCs formal allies, Cosatu and the SACP. In Zumas sights is Vavi, his most prominent opponent and a rival of Nzimande. ProZuma Cosatu leaders and affiliates led by Sdumo Dlamini, Cosatus President and a leading Zuma supporter, have moved to purge Vavi. Dlaminis faction is investigating supposed improprieties by Vavi in the sale of Cosatus old head office. Vavi has described the investigation as a character assassination campaign designed to achieve political ends. The split within Cosatu goes right into the membership. The battle is particularly intense between the pro-Zuma National Union of Mineworkers and the anti-Zuma National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, respectively the largest and secondlargest Cosatu members. The NUM claims that NUMSA is poaching its members from the mining sector. (At the same time, NUM members have been defecting to the rival Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, AMCU.) The NUM-NUMSA squabble has spread to the state energy utility Eskom, meant to be NUM terrain, and we hear that the NUM is threatening to withhold its subscription of about R800,000 a month from Cosatu if it does not intervene in its favour. There is a real danger of violence. Some of Vavis pro-Zuma opponents claim that he is working with opposition parties, such as the new political platform Agang (to Build), headed by activist and academic Mamphela Ramphele, and Cosatus rival unions, to destabilise the government and the ANC (AC Vol 50 No 14). Some Cosatu neutrals fear the conflict may see the union federation split into two separate entities; others wonder whether Vavi might form his own
Blades think-Tank regiment

Higher Education Minister Blade Nzimande may be moving to the Department of International Relations and Cooperation to replace Maite Nkoana-Mashabane. This is under serious consideration, senior African National Congress (ANC) sources told Africa Confidential, because the DIRCO Minister has struggled in her job, albeit mainly because she has been undermined, they add (AC Vol 54 No 5). Appointing so staunch an ally would consolidate President Jacob Zumas power in an area of government he increasingly sees as his own. Nzimande is General Secretary of the South African Communist Party and Zumas leading political strategist in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province and principal power base. The President has grown more reliant on him for advice on foreign affairs: he depends on his KZN brains trust (headed by Nzimande) for advice on contentious issues such as intelligence, security, police and the state-owned enterprises. Nzimande directly asked Zuma for the Foreign Ministry and, we understand, was granted his request. The President may not make the appointment until the next cabinet reshuffle or early in 2014, after the general elections. Nzimande is held to be extremely ambitious and aspired to the ANC deputy presidency at the Mangaung party congress until Zuma judged the governing partys former General Secretary, business tycoon Cyril Ramaphosa, to be a more strategic and inclusive choice (AC Vol 54 No 2). Extraordinarily, in administrative terms, Nzimande is now expected to head a proposed state-owned BRICS ( Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) thinktank under his Higher Education and Training Ministry and not DIRCO, as might be expected. His Ministry will probably also be endowed with yet another think-tank, one dedicated to African policy. It is tentatively to be called the Africa Centre and will be based at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), which comes under the Higher Education Department. The government apparently feels that the current think-tank, the Africa Institute of South Africa, which is based in DIRCO, has not produced usable Africa strategies. Nkoana-Mashabane pleaded with Zuma to base the BRICS think-tank at DIRCO but to no avail. The academic forum which precedes the BRICS summit, before the leaders meet, was hosted last month by the Department of Higher Education. NkoanaMashabane objected to this, too, but was ignored. A former ANC Womens League provincial official in Limpopo Province, she has regularly seen other ANC leaders encroach on her turf. Nzimande is merely the latest. There is a broad impression that Nkoana-Mashabane has been out of her depth in handling the countrys vast, complicated and often controversial global foreign policy. In fact, she attracts the blame for ill-thought out policies for which she was not originally responsible. Controversial and poorly handled interventions in Libya and Central African Republic and badly received diplomacy on Cte dIvoire and Syria were not her idea. As for BRICS strategy, this is largely run by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and, to a lesser extent, by the Department of Trade and Industry and by state-owned finance institutions, such as the Development Bank of Southern Africa. l

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Motlanthe to resign but he is determined not to leave until he is sacked. Zuma team aims to make room for Cyril Ramaphosa, who was elected Deputy President of the ANC in December, to take Motlanthes place as national Deputy President. They want Ramaphosa in national office before the 2014 elections. Yet he is busy extracting himself from his web of business interests, which may take some time. A prominent figure whom Zuma wants out of the Cabinet is Tokyo Sexwale, the Human Settlements Minister, whom Ramaphosa defeated for the partys deputy presidency. Fikile Mbalula, the Sports Minister and former ANCYL President, will be another casualty, we hear. Mbalulas sin was to stand against Mantashe at Mangaung for the General Secretarys job. Sexwale and Mbalula have been lying low since their defeats. Another who is marked for removal is Paul Mashatile, the Culture Minister and a key backer of Motlanthe.
political party. Speaking at the recent Cosatu bargaining Mantashe said, The top six [in the leadership of Cosatu] is split, others are behind Vavi and others [support] Sdumo [Dlamini]. You will have no Cosatu you [will] have Vavi unions and Sdumo unions. The federation is on a downward slope and unions are under siege. Mantashe blamed the leadership battles in Cosatu for the violent nature of recent strikes and for Cosatus difficulties in recruiting new members. Vavi admits that the rise of splinter unions means that Cosatu may no longer represent a majority of the labour force. The latest Labour Department figures show that there are now 193 registered trades unions, of which 117 (many very small) do not belong to Cosatu or any other formal alliance, such as the Federation of Unions of South Africa (Fedusa), the second largest federation,
or the National Council of Trade Unions (Nactu), the third largest. Vavi said Cosatu affiliates were increasingly poaching each others members, with other battles, apart from the NUM-NUMSA struggle, between the South African Democratic Teachers Union and the National Education, Health and Allied Workers Union.
Mozambique
Frelimos gold rush

Energy and infrastructure investment could transform the neglected north and affect the presidential succession
nadarko and other oil companies predict that gas finds in Cabo Delgado could double Mozambiques annual gross domestic product. Meanwhile, vast coal reserves are believed to lie in Niassa. The centre of gravity of Mozambiques economic opportunities seems to be shifting north. The government is courting
Sonangol
Shareholder Former chief
foreign investors to help to transform these natural resources into revenue for what was until recently one of the worlds poorest countries (AC Vol 53 No 9). Leaders of the governing Frente de Libertao de Moambique are making sure that they benefit personally and can use the resources to help their positions
within Frelimo. The most important figure in the development of the north is General Alberto Chipande, whom Frelimo legend credits with firing the shots that launched the liberation war against Portugal in 1964. A former Defence Minister and native of Cabo Delgado, he represents the province in Parliament. At 73, he is sometimes seen as one of the party dinosaurs but the anticipated rebirth of the north has revived both his business and political interests. Although all senior Frelimo leaders have major business interests, Chipandes are largely independent of those of President Armando Guebuza, even though he has been his close political advisor. Chipandes business allies include leading generals
Interest
FRELIMOS NORTHERN BUSINESS NETWORK

Montepuez Rubies
Abdul Magid Osman
Business partners
Amorim Energia
Shareholder
Vice-President of Angola
Former board member Principal
Manuel Vicente
Madeiras de Machaze
Abdul Carimo Issa

Principal
Interest
Interest
Principal
Principal
Principal
Founder & principal
Gen. Salsio Gen. Lagos Gen. Atansio Gen. Tom Eduardo Teodoro Lidimo Salvador Nalyambipano Mtumuke
Principals Married
galp
Shareholder
epsilon investimentos
Anadarko
Fernando Amado Couto
Partners
Quionga energia
Gen. Alberto Chipande
ENI
Project
Gen. Raimundo Pachinuapa
Maria Graa Machel
Nelson Sate
Project
Principal Principal
Principal Shareholders Principal
Principal Principal
Palma LNG
Rosario Mualeia
Grupo Manica
Business links?
portos do norte (pdn)

Majority shareholder 49%
Northern Development Corridor (CDN)

Shareholders
Founder & principal
Madeiras Rovuma
Interest 51%
Madeiras Nangade
Interest
Whatana Group
Shareholder via Petromoc
Principals
Nephew of Mozambiques president
Miguel Guebuza
portos e Caminhos de Ferro de moambique (CFm)
Vale S.A.
Interest
Newpalm Internacional
Jos Mateus Muria Kathupa
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the established Cosatu-dominated union system. Members unhappy with the services of their unions, and opposed to Zuma, have formed splinter groups such as AMCU. Other Cosatu affiliates have experienced breakaways, in opposition to the federations support for Zuma and the feeling that it is too focused on politics and on enriching its own leaders. Out-of-touch unions include the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union and the Communications Workers Union (CWU), which said it was caught by surprise by the current postal strike. As the union movement fragments, wildcat strikes are likely to increase, bringing new uncertainty to labour relations. Powerful constituencies and leaders
of the ANC, including Malema, ANCYL, Vavi, anti-Zuma trades unionists, ANC provincial branches, Motlanthe, Sexwale and Mathews Phosa are deliberately being marginalised within the party but their absence from Zumas side could have an impact on the ANCs electoral effort in 2014. Yet Zumas success in persuading Ramaphosa to become his deputy has stayed the hand of those who were thinking of splitting from the ANC and forming a new party. Now they are waiting to see what will happen when or if Ramaphosa takes over. Agang, which was launched in February, has strong potential. Ramphele was a founder of the Black Consciousness Movement, along with the late Steve Biko. More recently, she has served on a number
of company boards and is Chairwoman of the resources company Gold Fields. Now, she seeks political backing from black activists and disaffected ANC leaders. Other activists on the far left of the ANC alliance hope to recruit disgruntled members of the NUM and Cosatu into new political parties. The Workers and Socialist Party claims to have made some inroads in mining areas but may have little appeal outside the North West Province. To avoid concentrating on the negative alone, Zuma has launched his own campaign to support the economic plan cobbled together by the National Planning Commission, which was adopted by the party conference. Yet here he faces opponents from within the unions and the party, who dismiss it as neo-liberal. l
africa-confidential.com 2013
Chipande and the presidency
Chipandes status as an undisputed hero of the party makes him an attractive presidential prospect for anti-Guebuza elements such Graa Machel, widow of Founding President Samora Machel, wife of South African former President Nelson Mandela and a successful businesswoman in her own right. Guebuza has kept the faith of the antigos combatentes (liberation veterans) up to now by giving them sinecures and patronage, and even land and mineral concessions. Yet Chipandes allies include former military men from Cabo Delgado who feel that Guebuza has not been generous enough. Another close ally of Chipandes who is hostile to Guebuza is businessman Fernando Amado Couto, said to be the brains behind the recent takeover of Nacala port by the newly formed Portos do Norte (PdN). Chipande and Gen. Raimundo Domingos Pachinuapa are believed to be shareholders in PdN and the company may be negotiating other port management deals in the north. If Guebuza wants his influence to continue, some ask, what about his wife, Maria da Luz Dai Guebuza, succeeding him? President of the Mozambican Womens Association, the First Lady has strong liberation credentials and has been taking on more and more roles commonly assumed by the head of state. Others are sceptical: some note that the Guebuza family fears electors might punish any dynastic ambition. Nevertheless, some Frelimo leaders want a famous face to front their next presidential campaign. Chipandes presidential prospects are mixed. Although popular in the party, he is unknown to the mainly young electors and is unlikely to appeal to them, although the
prospects of any other partys candidate prevailing against the Frelimo machine in 2014 are thought non-existent. His allies are working to cement his support in the northern provinces but he still needs
Guebuzas backing to make a full bid for the presidency. Whatever happens to him politically, he seems set to remain a pivotal figure in and beneficiary of the economic rise of the north. l
9
from the north and Frelimo as well as business people thought to be opposed to Guebuza. A presidential bid by Chipande next year no longer appears as improbable as it once did (AC Vol 54 No 7). Guebuzas star is waning as the end of his final term in office nears. He is attempting to transfer some presidential powers to his protg, Alberto Vaquina, whom he appointed Prime Minister last year in the hope of continuing to wield influence (AC Vol 53 No 21). Another Guebuza favourite, Jos Pacheco, was seen as a rising star and possible successor but his reputation suffered from his handling of the food riots in September 2010 and, lately, from accusations of corruption. A recent report by the Environmental Investigation Agency criticised the Agriculture Minister for having too close a relationship with a Chinese company which had been illegally exporting timber. The EIA estimates that about half of Mozambiques timber trade, which has been growing strongly, is illegal. Chipande also has timber interests.
The Quionga network

General Alberto Joaquim Chipandes key business move was the formation of Quionga Energia SA this January. Also involved are his long-time ally Gen. Raimundo Pachinuapa and former Finance Minister Abdul Magid Osmans company Epsilon Investimentos SA. Quionga is intended to act in the same way as private companies set up by Angolan government leaders to harvest profit from offshore oil exploration without having to invest, Africa Confidential understands. In Angola, major oil companies that win bids for blocks to explore and exploit are then required by the Frente de Libertao de Moambique government to carry a minority share, often 10% or 15%, for a company such as Quionga (AC Vol 53 No 15). With powerful founders but no industry experience, Quionga is a classic model of a company designed for sale in the Angolan fashion, Frelimo sources close to the generals confirm. Other Quionga shareholders include Gen. Henriques Lagos Lidimo, former Chief of Army General Staff and former military counter-espionage chief, and Salsio Teodoro Nalyambipano, former Deputy Minister of Security and ex-Ambassador to Angola. Also holding stakes are Tom Eduardo and Atansio Salvador Mtumuke, both senior generals of Makonde ethnicity. Chipande and Pachinuapas friendship goes back to their time as guerrilla commanders during the war and both are former governors of Cabo Delgado Province and sit on the Political Commission, Frelimos governing body. Pachinuapas wife Maria is on Frelimos Central Committee and is linked to Graa Machel through her Whatana Group investment company (Vol 52 No 18). The generals already have extensive business interests in Cabo Delgado, particularly in forestry and mining. Chipande and Pachinuapa are involved in forestry through a company called Newpalm Internacional, as are Lidimo and Mtumuke in a firm called Madeiras de Machaze. A key business partner of Chipande through Newpalm is Jos Mateus Muaria Kathupa, brother of Carvalho Muaria, the Tourism Minister, Governor of Sofala Province and a director of Petromoc. Pachinuapa, Lidimo and Nalyambipano have interests in ruby concessions in Montepuez. Some sources talk of Lidimo obtaining swathes of land in mineral-rich Niassa Province and Chipande, whose plethora of commercial interests include mining, joining the scramble for land in Palma. The competition to buy land there is so intense that it has attracted comment from the independent weekly, Savana. Epsilon is key to Quionga s profile. Epsilon has previously focused on property investment. Its owner, Osman, is on the board of the Portuguese oil and gas company Galp (AC Vol 49 No 12). Galp has big interests in Mozambique, including 10% of Rovuma Offshore Block 4, controlled by the Italian company ENI (Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi ), which is one of Galps main shareholders. Osmans connections through Galp should place Quionga in prime position to benefit during the tendering process. All contracts, however, must be awarded to properly qualified low bidders and Quionga s role will be carefully watched by transparency campaigners. Even if Quionga does not obtain percentage shares in offshore blocks, it remains ideally placed to benefit from ancillary infrastructure contracts that arise from the US$50 billion gas liquefaction plant that ENI is building with Anadarko at Palma (AC Vol 53 No 25). Osman set up Epsilon in 2007 after President Armando Guebuza had pushed him out of the secondlargest commercial bank, BCI-Fomento. Guebuza had effectively forced him to sell his shares and hand over the chairmanship to his then new protg, Celso Correia. Other BCI shareholders joined Osman in Epsilon, including former Deputy Speaker Abdul Carimo Mahomed Issa, a legal expert and business partner of Osman and Machel. Issa, we hear, was involved in establishing Quionga, in which he also holds shares. Quionga may also be intended to broker the entry of Angolan investors into the Mozambican oil and gas industry. Angolan Vice-President Manuel Vicente, the former head of the Sociedade Nacional de Combustveis de Angola, has been making regular trips to Mozambique to talk to private companies about oil and gas opportunities. He is believed to have visited twice this year already. Chipande is better placed to do business with Luanda than Guebuza, whose relations with the Angolan leadership are said to be poor. Sonangol is another of Galps major shareholders and recently, the Angolan company has tried to increase its control over Galp so as to gain entry to the industry in third countries, such as Brazil. Some industry observers consider it logical for Sonangol to come into Mozambique via both Galp and Osman. l
SomaliA /Puntland
Deferring democracy
Local elections were meant to be a first democratic step but the territorys leaders fear they could threaten stability
hether or not Puntland is ready for democracy, the government has postponed the local elections due on 15 May. There is no clear notion of when, if ever, they will occur. President Abdirahman Mohamud Faroles decision to extend his term, the lack of an electoral register and mistrust among the countrys sub-clans leave the as yet unborn democracy facing huge challenges. Until the latest delay, the timetable scheduled local council elections first and then, by January 2014, the selection of a new president. The system was intended to emulate Somalilands practice of using local elections as a basis for a presidential election (AC Vol 54 No 3). That deadline now seems unlikely to be met. The postponement will have endeared Puntland little to its donor friends. It was only in the last week of March that the United States Special Representative to Somalia, James Swan, led a delegation of the Democratisation Programme Steering Committee, which included British, Swedish and Italian officials, for talks in Garowe with Farole on the elections. Puntlands official information service quoted Swan saying he was impressed with very recent significant progress. The climate for elections could have hardly been less conducive, with radio stations banned and political associations calling and then cancelling election boycotts. Leaders in the capital, Garowe, have been pondering whether the current climate of mistrust might cause democracy to result in less stability, not more. They pride themselves on having kept violence at bay and value highly the international praise and funds they have received for reducing piracy (after much pressure) and maintaining peace. Behind Garowes decisions lie Puntlands reputation, prospects for donor finance and exploiting natural resources, and a clan power play that goes well beyond the territorys borders. At least since the collapse of the late Mohamed Siad Barres dictatorship in 1991, Somali politics have been dominated by a struggle between Hawiye and Darod clans for the control of territory and resources. While Mogadishu and the south were fought over, the Darod created a stable clan homeland in Puntland. The north-east afforded not only a safe haven for Darod at risk in other parts of the country but also conferred political authority and influence on the
10
entire clan. Through various admittedly failed transitional governments, key positions have been shared between Darod and Hawiye politicians. Now there is a government in Mogadishu treated as a fully functioning entity, despite a steep decline in security (AC Vol 54 No 7), Puntland finds itself less of a donor darling, much like Somaliland. External interests still steadfastly regard Somalia as one country and are less open to the needs and pleas of the two northern territories. Unlike Somaliland, Puntland does not seek independence but its influence in Somalia depends on stability and good reputation. Elections would accentuate its recent stability and contrast its condition with the continuing uncertainty around Mogadishu. Garowe has admitted to insecurity of its own. At a meeting on 6 April in Mogadishu to discuss reforms to the Somali legal system, Puntlands Minister for Justice, Yusuf Ahmed Kheyr, said that Puntland feels an extensive need for support in terms of security and justice from the federal government of Somalia, and also that Al Shabaab militants were pouring into the territory.
Federal isolation
In the run-up to the end of Somalias Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2011-12, President Farole played a major part in the negotiations. Since Hassan Sheikh Mohamud became President last September, however, and even more since he appointed Abdi Farah Shirdon Said as Prime Minister, Puntland has been isolated from federal-level politics (AC Vol 53 No 19). One explanation is Hassan Sheikhs decision to appoint not a Majerteen but a Marehan Premier (AC Vol 53 No 23). Both sub-clans are part of the Darod clan family that dominates Puntland but the Marehan are not, generally speaking, representatives of Puntland. Many in the north-east see Saids appointment as a snub. Puntland views a successful democratisation process as a way of ending its isolation in national affairs. Under the new constitution, power and the ability to sign lucrative mineral deals will return to Mogadishu over time. Puntland needs to increase its influence to the point where it can reassert its political weight. When, four years ago, clan elders chose Farole as President, that coincided with
Puntlands rise to fame as a pirate hub ironically at the same time as it became a beacon of stability in failed Somalia. By the relative standards of Somalia, this resulted in huge international attention. The goal was both to help Puntland fight and incarcerate pirates and also, politically, to give it a key seat at the table in the negotiations to end the transition in Somalia. Accordingly, much cash went to Puntland to train security forces and support projects to provide young men with alternative employment to piracy. Financially, the biggest threat to Puntland is over natural resources. In the dying days of President Sharif Sheikh Ahmeds TFG, Garowe secured federal recognition of the oil deals signed to explore the fields that lie on the border with Somaliland (AC Vol 54 No 1). Range Resources is exploring for oil in Nugal and the Dharoor Valley. This could release great wealth for Puntland and its politicians if the federal government in Mogadishu does not raise tricky jurisdictional questions about who should collect revenue. Puntland presents itself as a stable, democratic entity. That is vital for continued donor support and political legitimacy but it has other motives. Politicians in Puntland and within the Darod seek to bolster their position through the formation of the Jubaland regional state along the Kenyan border and centred on Kismayo. Their plan is to build a regional statelet in Juba and Gedo regions, which are dominated by Darod clans but where other clans count (AC Vol 54 No 2). Such a primarily Darod entity would ally itself to the Darod of Puntland and thus dominate federal politics. When President Hassan said that the federal government should be involved in establishing the Jubaland administration, many Darod saw this as unwarranted interference. Hawiye leaders fear the isolation that such Darod prominence could bring. The Hawiye have no regional state of their own: Himan and Heeb, and Galmudug, are smaller and less wellorganised (AC Vol 53 No 1). Even if they merged to form a viable state, there are, realistically, no further areas where Hawiye could establish a regional state. Elections in Puntland may help to maintain the territorys autonomy vis-vis Mogadishu and favour the Darod within a federation but Farole appears to have more selfish aims. He stands accused of trying to manipulate these processes to prolong his time in office. Other leaders are reluctant at present to move decisively against him. They may dislike him but broader clan considerations seem to overrule their desire to remove him. Puntlands success depends on progress towards both democracy and stability and Faroles reluctance to embrace one could well jeopardise the other. l
france/mali: Continued From page 2
France, Algeria and Mali
The Commandement des Oprations Spciales backed an early intervention because it believed the jihadist forces about 5,000 in early January had not put down strong enough roots locally to mount a serious resistance. That has proved true so far in Kidal and Timbuktu, but the jihadists have established several clandestine bases around Gao, allowing them to sneak into the city and attack Malian and French forces there. Key to improving security in northern Mali and across the region is the triangular relationship between Hollande, Algerias President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Malis President Dioncounda Traor. This week another Mali delegation is heading for more talks in Algiers: relations have improved slowly over the past three years. In April 2010, Algeria set up the Comit
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wants no involvement with a ground campaign, its officials have been taking the regional implications of Malis crisis increasingly seriously. The most obvious sign of this new involvement is the USAs agreements with Niger (to launch surveillance drones) and Burkina Faso for various military facilities. Yet Washington is concerned about Frances strategy of turning the military mission under French/Malian control into a purely UN operation. US officials know that the UNs linkage to North Atlantic Treaty Organisation operations in Afghanistan has proved generally disastrous for the UNs position there. As the main promoters of the Mali strategy, Hollande and Le Drian have become increasingly reliant on the military Chief of Staff, General Benot Puga. Foreign Minister Fabius, a more seasoned politician than either Hollande or Le Drian, has been far more cautious about the mission.That makes Gen. Pugas role all the more important. Formerly head of the Special Forces and also Commander of Operations in Chad (2006-2009) and in Libya (2011), Puga is one of the most experienced officers in France. Appointed by Sarkozy, he quickly gained Hollandes confidence and, according to insiders, his advice is taken more seriously than the Cellule africaine at the Elyse Palace. When Hollande took over the government in May 2012, he and Fabius commissioned a fresh assessment of Mali which recommended the immediate end of French backing for the Mouvement
national de Libration de lAzawad. This, we hear, led to a change of tactics by the Direction Gnrale de la Scurit Extrieure, the foreign intelligence service. The DGSE had developed close ties with some Tuareg leaders, which had proved useful to them in Sahel operation and in attempts to contain AQIM. The DGSEs new Director, Bernard Bajolet, a former intelligence coordinator at the Elyse who also served as Ambassador to Algeria and Afghanistan, is understood to view the Mali mission as his top priority. He replaces Erard Corbin De Mangoux, who took the blame for the failed mission to rescue a DGSE agent from his Somali captors in early January (AC Vol 54 No 2).
dtat-major oprationnel conjoint with Mali, Niger, and Mauritania to coordinate action against AQIM and other jihadist groups but the CEMOC lacked substance and capacity. During the past year, all the jihadist groups in northern Mali received supplies from Algeria, apparently with no attempt by its security services to cut off the supply lines. Since France launched its intervention in January, Algeria has shut its border with Mali. The In Amenas attack in February concentrated minds and Algiers has stepped up security. It is also watching developments in Western Sahara, where it backs the Polisario Front against Moroccos occupation. A new report from UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moons office warns that fighting on the Mali-Algeria border could spill over into Western Sahara, and that jihadists could cross into camps and radicalise the refugees there. The report also calls for independent, sustained human rights monitoring in Western Sahara, a call backed by Polisario but opposed by Morocco. King Mohammed VIs government has been trying to convince Polisario to accept its offer of autonomy within the borders of Morocco. Moroccos occupation of Western Saharan territory is not recognised internationally, a point delicately avoided in public by Hollande on his state visit to Rabat last week, and there has been no serious pressure on Morocco to cooperate on organising a credible election. Algeria and South Africa believe Western support for Rabat on the issue could change. l
pointers
magnate who has massive investments in Congo-Kinshasa and Guinea, is suing the public relations company FTI Consulting and its Europe Chairman, Lord MallochBrown. Steinmetz appointed FTI as advisor to himself and his firm Beny Steinmetz Group Resources in May 2009. He claims that FTI ended its relationship with BSGR last November because Malloch-Brown had succumbed to pressure from the billionaire philanthropist George Soros. Mark Malloch-Brown, a former United Nations Deputy Secretary General and British former Development Minister, inherited the controversial Steinmetz as a client when he came to FTI. Steinmetz says that Malloch-Browns duty to represent him ran counter to his relationship with Soros and was thus a breach of fiduciary duty. Steinmetz also claims defamation. Soros and Steinmetz have common, though diverging, interests in Guinea. Since Alpha Conds election as President in November 2010, Soros has been advising him on implementing a national mining code and introducing new standards of probity and transparency. Non governmental agencies he supports have been prominent in these initiatives. Meanwhile, Conakry accuses Steinmetz of bribing the government of the late Lansana Cont to obtain the rights to half of the giant Simandou iron-ore mine, which used to belong to Rio Tinto. Steinmetz vigorously denies the charge (AC Vol 54 No 6). BSGR says it obtained information about the misuse of confidential information by FTI and Lord MallochBrown via the Data Protection Act 1998 and it is based on FTIs own electronic records. If Steinmetz possesses internal FTI e-mails in which Malloch-Brown decries Steinmetz, his defence could be difficult. Any leaks from FTI that may have taken place probably followed a falling out between Malloch-Brown and other FTI executives who wanted to retain Steinmetz as a client, we hear.
Guinea Bissau/United States Admiral of the white n In a sting operation off the coast of
Mozambique Military manoeuvres n An intervention force from the Southern
Rwanda Faustins pact n Faustin Twagiramungu was Prime
Cape Verde on 2 April, United States agents arrested the former head of the Navy, Vice-Admiral Jos Amrico Bubo Na Tchuto, and other Guinea Bissauans, for agreeing to provide arms in return for cocaine. The captives were whisked to New York for trial. On 4 April, gunfire and troop movements in Bissau led to speculation that the arrests might have sparked a new
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Minister in 1994-96, returned from exile to lose the presidential election in 2003 and now wants another start (AC Vol 52 No 3). The first head of government after the genocide of 1994 has pledged to return to Kigali in June, along with another opposition figure, Grard Karangwa Semushi, who lives in the Netherlands. Two years ago, from exile in Brussels, Twagiramungu founded a political party, Umugambi Rwanda Rwiza -Rwanda Dream Initiative. Karangwa, a former member of President Paul Kagames Rwanda Patriotic Front, is now Vice-President of Pacte de dfense du peuple-Imanzi. The partys founder, Dogratias Mushayidi, received a life sentence in 2010 for recruiting soldiers to overthrow the government. Neither man has said when he will arrive but Septembers general elections are too near for them to stand. Karangwa says he may run for president in 2017. Twagiramungu says its too soon to decide. He condemns Kagames militaristic monarchy and both men say they want to open up the space for political dialogue.
African Development Community will soon deploy in eastern Congo-Kinshasa. It looks like a rerun of the 1998-2003 Congo war but some key participants will change (AC Vol 39 No 19). SADC may again be defending the Kinshasa government against forces supported by Rwanda and Uganda, the Mouvement du 23 mars. This time, though, Mozambican soldiers will join the SADC troops, most of them from South Africa and Tanzania. Mozambiques participation is a major policy shift. President Joaquim Chissano angered old allies Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe by refusing to take part in the last intervention, citing his countrys experience of foreign involvement in its devastating civil war. The conservative wing of the ruling Frente de Libertao de Moambique saw his refusal as a betrayal. This wing is represented by Armando Guebuza, who was then in his wilderness years and leading the fight-back that saw him succeed Chissano in 2002. The intervention is consistent with the authoritarianism of Frelimos revolutionary era, restoring which has been a hallmark of Guebuzas presidency. The thinly-equipped armed forces, the Foras Armadas de Defesa de Moambique, are ill-suited to their proposed role in eastern Congo. Its previous peacekeeping forays in Burundi, Sudan and East Timor were less militarily active than Congo-K threatens to be. Internal security is the responsibility of the para-military police of the Fora de Interveno Rpida, the de facto army. Since 3 April, the FIR has been confronting Frelimos civil war adversary, the Resistncia Nacional Moambicana : FIR carried out raids in Muxungue and Gondola, Manica Province, dispersing 300 Renamo militants with tear gas and arresting 15. On 5 April, gunmen retaliated by killing five police officers in an ambush at Muxungue police station. Renamo denies responsibility. The row stems from Renamos refusal to participate in local elections and its declared intention to use all means to prevent electors registering.
Africa/Mining Beny bites back n Beny Steinmetz, the Israeli mining
struggle between army factions for control of Guinea Bissaus drug business. Drugs smuggling has increased substantially since the April 2012 military coup: the United Nations reported at least 20 transatlantic flights by small aircraft loaded with drugs landing in the country in the following six months. The US operation throws light on the widely-discredited transitional government of Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo and the inability of the Economic Community of West African States to help restore constitutional government (AC Vol 53 No 9). The regime is supposed to be moving towards elections but those due this month have been postponed. ECOWAS has stationed a force of police and soldiers, the 600strong ECOWAS Mission in Guinea Bissau (Ecomib), to help manage the transition but it is not taken seriously. The biggest parliamentary party, the Partido Africano da Independncia da Guin e Cabo Verde, has rejected all invitations to participate in the transitional regime. However, the PAIGC former Prime Minister, Carlos Gomes Jnior, whose probable election as president was prevented by the coup, still wants to run for the top job. Neither the UN nor the European Union recognise Nhamadjos government and are privately dismissive of ECOWAS efforts but the need for its support in the Mali conflict stops them pressing the issue. US prosecutors have revealed that the plotters with Bubo claimed to be consulting Nhamadjo and Prime Minister Rui Duarte de Barros over the drug shipments.
Both demand freedom for political prisoners such as Mushayidi and Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, President of the Forces dmocratiques unifies-Inkingi, locked up since October 2010. They also want the regime to acknowledge that Rwanda has three ethnic communities: Hutu, Tutsi and Twa. It is taboo to mention ethnic identities and their existence is not officially acknowledged. Twagiramungu deplores the fact that there are still very few Hutu officers in the Rwanda Defence Force. Unlike some other oppositionists, Karangwa and Twagiramungu say they are committed to peaceful political change.

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S2106/455738 Administration

12 April 2013 - Vol 54 - N 8

The campaign stretches out

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Toeing the party online

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Why France is staying on

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ANC wields the long knives

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Africa/Mining Beny bites back n Beny Steinmetz, the Israeli mining

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