WeeklyAgReport
BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE
WEEK ENDED ON Jul. 25, 2013
CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa. Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba. Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante. Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis. Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.
WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE
July 25, 2013
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: JULY 25 TO 31, 2013: GRADUAL TEMPERATURE RISE AND SCATTERED RAINFALLS. OUTLOOK SUMMARY
The current perspective begins still under the influence of the polar air mass which entered in the past days. Since the polar air mass will expand into the north, the northeast corner of the agricultural area will observe lower temperatures than the center and the south of the region. Due to the low humidity levels, and stable characteristics of the polar air mass, most of the agricultural area will observe scarce precipitations. Only Eastern San Luis, Eastern La Pampa and the southwest of Buenos Aires are likely to receive moderate to abundant precipitations (10 to 50 mm), caused by the entrance of maritime air. Northerly winds will gradually return, expanding into the north and the east-central part of the agricultural area. However, the south and the west-central area will remain under the influence of southerly winds leading to a sharp temperature contrast.
CORN
The harvest of commercial corn is moving slowly, since the weather conditions are slowing down the draining of moisture in the grain. The weekly progress rate reported only 1.2 percentile points, describing a harvest progress of 93.2 % nationwide. In total numbers, more than 3.27 M HA were collected, accruing a volume over 23.5 MTN, yielding an average of 7.2 tons/Ha nationwide. The fastest progress was registered this week in the province of Cordoba, especially on late planted plots. Generally speaking, the mid-north of Cordoba has gathered nearly 80 % of the corn surface. The yields obtained continue to be good for this season, which keeps the harvest expectations above the 7.0 tons/HA average for the region. In the north and south belts, where only a few plots remain to be harvested, very good regional productivities were posted, in spite of bad weather during most of the cycle, which sustains a high regional average. The southeast of Buenos Aires is nearly finishing the harvest with very good results, where the average is over 8.0 tons/HA. The plots planted with corn have exceeded the expectations of producers in such a way that the perspectives for the next season are very promising. Upon the above scenario, we maintain our production estimate at 24,800,000 Tn. If this volume is obtained, it will rank 15.4 % on top of the previous harvest volume (2011/12: 21.5 MTN).
CORN HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Jul. 25,2013
Production (Tn)
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras
Hectareage (Ha) Sown Lost Harvestable
Porcentage Hectares harvested
Yield
harvested (qq/Ha)
265.000 285.000 450.000 456.000 147.000 459.000 410.000 151.000 416.000 225.000 107.000 94.000 137.000 57.000 19.000
39.220 14.250 12.150 20.976 9.114 11.842 10.823 5.036 18.720 6.300 4.013 2.867 3.096 2.223 1.026
225.780 270.750 437.850 435.024 137.886 447.158 399.177 145.964 397.280 218.700 102.988 91.133 133.904 54.777 17.974
81 96 84 89 92 98 97 97 95 98 99 98 96 99 100
183.338 260.148 367.290 385.639 126.890 438.874 389.043 141.592 375.979 215.244 101.730 89.465 128.347 54.310 17.974
TOTAL
3.678.000 161.655
3.516.345
93,2 3.275.863
29,3 537.813 49,0 1.274.725 72,5 2.662.853 71,0 2.738.038 68,7 871.726 92,0 4.037.639 90,0 3.500.581 61,0 863.712 77,5 2.913.835 80,0 1.722.458 52,3 532.234 84,1 752.604 50,8 652.454 79,6 432.219 52,5 94.427 72,0 23.587.318
WHEAT
Having observed fast planting progress during the second fortnight of June and first fortnight of July, the covering fieldwork is starting to slow down. Therefore, the last fifteen days reported a progress rate of 5.3 percentile points, describing a planting coverage of 92.7 % out of 3,900,000 hectares projected for the current season. In total numbers, more than 3.6 MHA were covered, and the pending surface is concentrated in the province of Buenos Aires. The southeast of Buenos Aires reported little fieldwork progress due to the lack of moisture on the planting bed ten days ago, in addition to the continuous rains of last week, which make it difficult to plant properly. It is estimated that nearly a 20 % of the wheat area remains to be covered, which might be finished within the next fifteen days if the weather permits. Also the southwest of Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa have made rapid progress of planting this crop. So far, it is estimated a planting progress rate of 90 %. In the north of La Pampa and west of Buenos Aires, the planting process is nearly finished, and the pending surface is likely to be incorporated next week. Most of the plots already sown are developing 1 to 3 leaves, while very few plots register emergence or early stages of tillering.
WHEAT PLANTING
2013/14 SEASON
As Of: Jul 25, 2013
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras
Hectareage (ha) 2012/13 2013/14
Percentage planted (%)
Hectares planted
340.000 190.000 265.000 130.000 160.000 265.000 240.000 150.000 210.000 140.000 680.000 770.000 3.000 50.000 7.000
50.000 170.000 320.000 156.000 192.000 315.000 280.000 180.000 245.000 165.000 840.000 915.000 4.000 60.000 8.000
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 94 89 81 100 96 100 92,7
50.000 170.000 320.000 156.000 192.000 315.000 280.000 180.000 240.100 155.100 747.600 741.150 4.000 57.600 8.000 3.616.550
TOTAL
3.600.000 3.900.000
BARLEY
The planting of barley is progressing fast nationwide. During the last fifteen days the progress rate posted 25 percentile points, which describes a national advance of 85.4 % out of 1,270,000 hectares
estimated for the ongoing season. In total numbers, nearly 1.1 MHA were covered. Compared to the same period last season, we observe a slight decrease of -0.8 percentile points. It is important to highlight that the fastest progress is registered in the center and west of the provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Towards the southeast of Buenos Aires the covering fieldwork was delayed in the last two weeks due to the lack of moisture in the first inches of the plots, as well as some conflicts in the transports sector and the continuous rainfalls of the last days. All these factors in combination have slowed down the planting work. Towards the north and south belts and mid-east of Entre Ros, the barley plots have been incorporated entirely. In those regions the phenological stages range from full emergence to early tillering in very good conditions. In the west of Buenos Aires and north of La Pampa, where the planting intention is under the area planted last season, the covering fieldwork is nearly finished, if the good weather continues. The south of La Pampa and southwest of Buenos Aires registered fluent progress during the last fifteen days, although 20% of the surface still remains to be planted.
BARLEY PLANTING
2013/14 Season
As Of: Jul 25, 2013
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV
Hectareage (he) 2012/13 2013/14
Percentage Hectares planted (%) planted
NOA 700 NEA 600 500 Ctro N Cba 6.600 5.000 S Cba 2.800 1.500 Ctro N Sfe 35.000 25.000 Ncleo Norte 143.000 90.000 Ncleo Sur 5.800 3.000 Ctro E ER 122.000 110.000 N LP-OBA 79.000 63.000 Ctro BA 285.000 245.000 SO BA-S LP 870.000 710.000 SE BA 500 SL 19.000 17.000 Cuenca. Sal. Otras TOTAL 1.570.000 1.270.000
100 100 100 100 100 100 95 89 79 83
500 5.000 1.500 25.000 90.000 3.000 104.500 56.070 193.550 589.300 98 16.660 85,4 1.085.080
Buenos Aires, July 25, 2013
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
