Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M.

Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk Assessment
Chapter 1

Introduction
Stein Haugen
[email protected]

Marvin Rausand
[email protected]

RAMS Group Department of Production and Quality Engineering NTNU

Version 1.0

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

1 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

What is risk?
To dene risk is not an easy task

The words of risk analysis have been and continue to be a problem . . . . When our Society for Risk Analysis was brand new, one of the rst things it did was to establish a committee to dene the word risk. This committee labored for 4 years and then gave up, saying in its nal report that maybe its better not to dene risk
Stan Kaplan: The words of risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 17(4):407-417

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

2 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk
What is risk in our context?

Related to what can happen in the future. At present, let us dene risk as the answer to these three questions:
What can go wrong? What is the likelihood of that happening? 3 What are the consequences?
1 2

Risk analysis is our tool to answer these questions. Associated with accidentsand mainly accidents that have severe consequences and happen not very often (often called major accidents).

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

3 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk analysis
Understanding how accidents can happen and what the consequences will be
A basis for prevention and preparation

Born within military and space applications. Grown to be used within almost all types of business, and especially where the consequences of accidents can be large, such as nuclear power plants, chemical and process industry, oil and gas industry, transport industry, and so on. A rapidly growing need for risk analysis (new applications, new requirements)

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

4 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object

Conceptual model
The bow-tie model

Hazards / Threats

Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Hazardous event

Proactive barriers

Reactive barriers

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

Consequences
5 / 23

Accident categories

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment

Objectives
of this course

1
Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Present and discuss terminology Dene how risk can be quantied and how these metrics may be used to evaluate tolerability of risk Present methods for risk assessment and discuss applicability, pros and cons for each method. Present and discuss some problem areas related to risk assessment (e.g., human errors, dependent failures). Describe how risk assessment may be carried out in practice and illustrate some application areas.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

6 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Focus

Technical and/or sociotechnical systems Future events Unwanted (negative) consequences Assets or values that we want to protect Accidents (sudden, unexpectednegative consequences) Mostly on severe accidents (but not limited to this) Providing information for decision-making, not decision-making in itself

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

7 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk analysis

Z Risk analysis: Systematic use of available information

to identify hazards and to estimate the risk to individuals, property, and the environment. Three main steps:
1 2 3

Hazard identication Frequency analysis Consequence analysis

The risk analysis may be qualitative, quantitative, or semi-quantitative.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

8 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Types of risk analysis

Hazard source Assets

Humans The environment Material / financial Humans 1 4 7 The environment 2 5 8 Technology / materials 3 6 9

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

9 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk evaluation

Z Risk evaluation: Process in which judgments are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of a risk analysis and taking into account factors such as socioeconomic and environmental aspects.
Sometimes: Comparing results from risk analysis with risk acceptance criteria.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

10 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation

Risk assessment

Z Risk assessment: Overall process of risk analysis and

risk evaluation.
Risk management Risk assessment

Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk analysis
- Identify hazards and threats - Identify hazardous events - Determine frequencies and consequences - Establish risk picture

Risk evaluation
- Evaluate risk (against risk acceptance criteria) - Propose risk-reducing measures - Assess alternative riskreducing measures

Risk control
- Make decisions related to risk-reducing measures - Implement measures - Monitor effects - Communicate risk

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

11 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk management
Z Risk management: A continuous management process with the objective to identify, analyze, and assess potential hazards in a system or related to an activity, and to identify and introduce risk control measures to eliminate or reduce potential harms to people, the environment, or other assets.
ntro Co

I de

nt i

fy

Communicate and Document

Track

Ana ly z

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Plan
Version 1.0 12 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Study object

Z Study object: Composite entity, at any level of

complexity, of personnel, procedures, materials, tools, equipment, facilities, and software. The elements of this composite entity are used together in the intended operational or support environment to perform a given task to achieve a specic objective.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

13 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Sociotechnical system
E Environment M System organization and management H Hardware S Software

L Liveware (humans)

MTO = man, technology, and organization

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

14 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

SHEL model

S Software

H Hardware

L Liveware

L Liveware

E Environment

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

15 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Accident categories
Adapted from Rasmussen (1997)

1
Frequency (log scale) Occupational accidents Traffic accidents

High risk

2
Airplane accidents Railway accidents

Low risk

3
Nuclear power accidents

Consequence (log scale)

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

16 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Accident categories

James Reason:
Organizational accidents vs. individual accidents

Process industry:
Process safety accidents vs. individual accidents

Offshore industry in Norway:

Major accidents vs. occupational accidents

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

17 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Increasing risk

Technological change, complex relationships between humans and automation Increasing scale of industrial installations Rapid development of ICT Aggressive and competitive marketplace Demand for speed (faster cars, trains, ships, . . . ) The increased likelihood of sabotage and terrorism The increasing use of multicultural workforces The emerging climate changes

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

18 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Legislation

EU Seveso II directive
Control of major accident hazards

EU Machinery directive
Safety aspects of a wide range of machinery

Health and safety at work act, UK Offshore installations (safety case) regulations, UK US Maritime transportation security act Offshore safety regulations, Noeway

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

19 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Risk and decision-making

Decisions may related to:

Should the activity be permitted? Are additional safety barriers or improvements necessary? Which options should be preferred? How much should be invested to reduce risk?

Requires an answer to the question what is safe enough?

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

20 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment

Model for decision-making

Adapted from Aven (2003)

Constraints
Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders
- Laws and regulations - Cost - Time

Stakeholders
- Preferences - Objectives - Criteria

Risk analysis Decision problem Other analyses - Decision alternatives

Managerial review and judgment

Decision

Decision analysis

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

21 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Decision-making
Deterministic: Decisions without consideration of the likelihood of possible outcome. Risk-based decision-making (RBDM): A process that uses quantication of risks, costs, and benets to evaluate and compare decision options competing for limited resources. Risk-informed decision-making (RIDM): An approach to decision-making representing a philosophy whereby risk insights are considered together with other factors to establish requirements that better focus the attention on design and operational issues commensurate with their importance to health and safety.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

22 / 23

Risk Assessment S. Haugen & M. Rausand Risk Risk assessment Study object Accident categories Legislation Decisionmaking Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Z Stakeholder: Person or organization that can affect, be

affected by, or perceive themselves to be affected by a decision or activity. Stakeholders may be classied in different ways:
People who are affected directly. People who are interested, want to become involved in the process, and seek an opportunity to provide input. People who are generally interested and seek information. People who are affected but are unaware of it or do not participate in the stakeholder process.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group)

Risk Assessment

Version 1.0

23 / 23