Climate change impacts on agricultural production First report for AG2020

Jrgen E. Olesen, University of Aarhus Shuting Yang and Jens H. Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute Marco Bindi and Lorenzo Orioli, University of Florence

Summary
The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe indicate consistent increases in projected temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and rather small decreases over southern Europe. These changes in climate patterns are expected to greatly affect all components of the European agricultural ecosystems (e.g. crop suitability, yield and production, livestock, etc.). In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and depletion of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. To a large extent these effects have already been observed during the past couple of decades, and such effects are therefore also expected to impact European agriculture in 2020. Adaptation strategies need to be introduced to reduce negative effects and exploit possible positive effects of climate change. Both short-term adjustments (e.g. changes in crop species, cultivars and sowing dates) and long-term adaptations (e.g. land allocation and farming system) should be considered. However, the differences in climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity will affect in a different way the agricultural eco-systems across Europe. In particular, agriculture in the Mediterranean region seems to be more vulnerable than in other European regions. In AG2020 we will apply a range of simple indicators to describe the vulnerability of European crop production to climate change and for the case studies to focus on vulnerability of specific crops and of options for adapting to the projected climate changes.

1. Introduction
Europe is one of the world's largest and most productive suppliers of food and fibre. In 2004 it accounted for 21% of global meat production and 20% of global cereal production. About 80% of this production occurred in the EU25 countries. The productivity of European agriculture is generally high, in particular in Western Europe, and average cereal yields in the EU countries are more than 60% higher than the world average. The EU Common Agricultural Policy has during the last decade been reformed to reduce overproduction, reduce environmental impacts and improve rural development. This is not expected to greatly affect agricultural production in the short run (OECD, 2004). However, agricultural reforms are expected to enhance the current process of structural adjustment leading to larger and fewer farms (Marsh, 2005). The hydrological features in Europe are very diverse, and there is also a large diversity in water uses, pressures and management approaches. About 30% of abstracted fresh water in Europe is used

for agricultural purposes, primarily irrigation (Flrke and Alcamo, 2005). The proportion of fresh water abstraction used for agricultural purposes is only 4% in Northern EU, but as high as 44% in Southern EU and projected to increase to 53% by 2030 under baseline conditions (Flrke and Alcamo, 2005). Intensive farming systems in Western Europe generally have a low sensitivity to climate change, because a given change in temperature or rainfall have modest impact (Chloupek et al., 2004), and because the farmers have resources to adapt and compensate by changing management. These systems may therefore respond favourably to a modest climatic warming (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). On the other hand some of the low input farming systems currently located in marginal areas may be most severely affected by climate change (Reilly and Schimmelpfennig, 1999; Darwin and Kennedy, 2000). There is a large variation across the European continent in climatic conditions, soils, land use, infrastructure, political and economic conditions (Bouma et al., 1998). These differences are expected also to greatly influence the responsiveness to climatic change (Olesen and Bindi, 2002).

2. Observed and projected climate change in Europe

2.1 Observed climate change Most of Europe has experienced increases in surface air temperature during 1901 to 2005, which amounts to 0.9 C in annual mean temperature over the entire continent (Kjellstrm, 2004; Alcamo et al., 2007). However, the recent period shows a trend considerably higher than the mean trend (+0.4C/decade for the period 1977-2001, Jones and Moberg, 2003). For the past 25 years, trends are higher in Central, northeastern Europe and in mountainous regions, while the lowest temperature trends are found in the Mediterranean region (Klein Tank, 2004). Temperatures are increasing more in winter than summer (Jones and Moberg, 2003). An increase of temperature variability has been observed, primarily due to increase in warm extremes (Klein Tank and Knnen, 2003). There are indications of changes in the rainfall pattern as indicated by the frequency of drought events during spring and early summer. There has been an increase in frequency of droughts in large parts of Western and Eastern Europe, with particularly large increases in the Mediterranean region (Trenberth et al., 2007). Mean annual precipitation is increasing in most of Atlantic- and Northern Europe and decreasing along the Mediterranean (Klein Tank et al., 2002). An increase in mean precipitation per wet day has been observed in most parts of the continent, even in areas getting drier (Frich et al., 2002; Klein Tank et al., 2002). Severe flooding affected parts of Austria, the Czech Republic and Germany for three weeks during August 2002. Heavy rainfall from storms crossing central Europe during early August triggered sequential flood waves that moved down the Vltava, Labe and Elbe rivers in the Czech Republic and Germany, and down the Danube river in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia and Romania. Recent results using high-resolution regional climate models have shown that global warming may be linked with a shift towards heavier intensive summertime precipitation over large parts of Europe (Christensen and Christensen, 2003). The precipitation events over central Europe may therefore occur more frequently in the future (Pal et al., 2004). The severity of the floods was probably enhanced by human management of the river systems, e.g. diking and installation of reservoirs (Helms et al., 2002) and possibly by the agricultural land use in the river basins (van der Ploeg and Schweigert, 2001). A severe heat wave over large parts of Europe in 2003 extended from June to mid-August, raising summer temperatures by 3 to 5 C. The warm anomalies in June lasted throughout the entire month (increases in monthly mean up to 6-7C), but July was only slightly warmer than on average

(1-3C), and the highest anomalies was reached between 1 and 13 August (+7 C) (Fink et al., 2004). Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 C were repeatedly recorded in most Southern and Central European countries (Andr et al., 2004; Beniston and Diaz, 2004). This heat wave has been found to be extremely unlikely statistically under current climate (Schr and Jendritzky, 2004). However, it is consistent with a combined increase in mean temperature and temperature variability (Schr et al., 2004; Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004; Pal et al., 2004). As such the 2003 heat wave resembles simulations by regional climate models of summer temperatures in the latter part of the 21st century under the A2 scenario (Beniston, 2004; Beniston and Diaz, 2004). The heat wave was associated with annual precipitation deficits up to 300 mm, and this drought was a major contributor to the estimated reduction of 30% over Europe in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems (Ciais et al., 2005). 2.2 Emission scenarios The evaluation of climate change is usually based on simulations with global climate models (GCM) for the IPCC emissions scenarios (SRES scenarios), which describe very different socioeconomic futures (Houghton et al., 2001). The SRES scenarios are grouped into four different categories (A1: world markets, A2: provincial enterprise, B1: global sustainability, B2: local stewardship). The grouping relies upon two orthogonal axes, representing social values (ranging from consumerist to conservationist) and level of governance (ranging from local to global), respectively. The SRES scenarios for socio-economic development have been adapted to European conditions (Parry, 2000; Holman et al., 2005; Abildtrup et al., 2006). Assumptions about future European land use and the environmental impact of human activities depend greatly on the development and adoption of new technologies. For the SRES scenarios it has been estimated that increases in crop productivity relative to 2000 could range between 25 and 163% depending on the time slice (2020 to 2080) and scenario (Ewert et al., 2005). These increases were smallest for the B2 and highest for the A1FI scenario. However, the difference between IPCC emission scenarios are small for the time slice up to 2030, and these differences are therefore ignored in the work in AG2020. 2.3 Projected climate change Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) have been used widely as a primary tool for climate change projections on both global and regional scales. In recent years, increasingly more regional climate models (RCMs), built on the same physics laws as AOGCMs, including description of the governing processes on regional scales, have been applied to specific regions to dynamically downscale the coarse AOGCM simulations. Several European research projects have devoted to apply an ensemble of RCMs to assess future climate changes in Europe, the associated risks and uncertainties arising from model formulations. It has been recognized that high resolution RCM modelling constrained by global AOGCM climate simulations can provide valuable additional details. In such climate change experiments, different RCMs demonstrate similar systematic behaviour (Jacob et al., 2007; Boberg, 2007, 2008) and their systematic errors can be identified using perfect boundary conditions as well as when nested within a GCM (Machenhauer et al., 1994; 1996). Based on these results, the current ongoing EU project ENSEMBLES designed a series RCM climate change experiments to quantify the uncertainty in regional climate change projections for Europe. In the design, simulations using 14 RCMs involved in the project are first performed using ERA40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. The simulations are made at spatial scale of 25 km for a European-wide region. In the second step, the high resolution RCMs are applied to perform

climate change experiments using boundary conditions from several AOGCM results made in the ENSEMBLES project, with a focus on the period 1950-2050. These simulations are currently being processed within the ENSEMBLES project, but some information based on preliminary studies using 50 km resolution experiments are made available, and will be used here as an example. A given RCM involved are driven by one or more GCM(s), thus the proposed simulations form a sparsely populated GCM/RCM matrix. The knowledge of model to model differences derived from the ERA40 simulations will then be used to inflate the sparsely populated GCM/RCM matrix set up to portray uncertainty in regional climate change projections for Europe. The recent published IPCC fourth assessment report concluded that, under the IPCC emission scenario A1B, the annual mean temperatures in Europe is likely to increase to from 2.3 to 5.3 C in the northern Europe and from 2.2 to 5.1 C in the southern Europe by the end of the 21st century (2080-2099), in comparison with the period of 1980 to 1999. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter and that in the Mediterranean area largest in summer. The simulated precipitation changes demonstrated strong south-north contrast across Europe, with increases of about 0-16% in the north and decreases of 4-27% in the south by the end of the 21st century. The largest precipitation increases in northern Europe are simulated in winter and the largest decrease in southern Europe occur in summer, while the simulated precipitation changes in other seasons vary in sign between models, implying the uncertainty in model simulations. The uncertainty in model simulated climate change signals will be quantified in the ongoing EU project ENSEMBLES using designed RCM simulations and methodology as described above. The multi-model high resolution RCM simulations of 100 years also provide high quality, detailed climate change projections for Europe for period around 2020 and beyond. Figs. 1 and 2 show en example of the projected changes in seasonal mean temperatures (Fig. 1) and precipitations (Fig. 2) over Europe for 2010-2030 with respect to 1961-1990 from the ENSEMBLES RCM simulations. The simulation was made at spatial resolution of 50 km using the DMIs RCM, HIRHAM, forced by the AOGCM of the Max Planck Institute for meteorology (MPI-MET) for the A1B scenario. It is evident that projected climate changes are significant by 2020. In particular, remarkable warming of more than 1 C over the whole Europe is seen in winter and spring, largely related to changes in snow cover (nor shown). The temperature increases in these seasons are largest in northern and eastern Europe, where the projected temperature changes exceed 3 C in winter in a few cases. The temperature changes are less pronounced in summer, with largest warming of 0.5-1 C over southern and western Europe. The temperature changes are marginal in autumn. In the mountain areas of Alps and Scandinavia a slight temperature decrease is projected.

Figure 1. Projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (C) over Europe for period of 20112030 for the A1B scenario simulated by the DMIs RCM, HIRHAM, at resolution of 50 km and driven by the MPI-MET AOGCM for winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON). The changes are relative to the present day climate from the average of 1961-1990. The simulation was made under the EU project ENSEMBLES. The projected precipitation changes in period around 2020 demonstrate substantial seasonal and regional differences (Fig. 2), although the overall patterns for winter, spring and autumn are characterized by the north-south contrast with increase rainfall in north and decrease rainfall in the south. In winter the precipitation increases for more than 15% in northern Europe and decreases for more than 15% over the Iberian Peninsula, Apennines and the Balkan Peninsula, while slight increases in precipitation are common in most area of central Europe, except over northeastern Germany and central France where slight decreases of precipitation are seen. The spring simulated pattern of precipitation change is marked by strong increase of 5-25% in northern and central Europe and strong decrease of 5-25% in southern Europe. In summer general decreases of precipitation are projected

in both northern and southern Europe, with slight precipitation increases of about 5% in central Europe. The strongest decrease of the summer precipitation is over the Iberian Peninsula. The autumn European precipitation changes are characterized by general increases of 5 - 25%, except precipitation decreases are seen in eastern part of Iberian Peninsula, eastern part of Apennines and eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula.

Figure 2. Projected changes in seasonal mean mean rainfall (%) over Europe for period of 20112030 for the A1B scenario simulated by the DMIs RCM, HIRHAM, at resolution of 50 km and driven by the MPI-MET AOGCM for winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON). The changes are relative to the present day climate from the average of 1961-1990. The simulation was made under the EU project ENSEMBLES. The changes in precipitation amounts (except in summer) are largely linked with changes in circulation (not shown). The 20 year period (2011-2030) is dominated by a circulation pattern that favours low-pressure system encounters in central and northern Europe and hence responsible for most of the enhanced precipitation. As such a change need not be associated with the global warming trend

itself, it is not necessarily all of this increase that can be attributed to the warming, and may for this reason be considered as a result of natural variability. Hence, the clear signal may not be as statistically significant as it appears to be. As the ENSEMBLES project runs into the last phase, a large ensemble of RCM simulations for European climate change in the 21st century will be available. This will help us to assess the climate change signals, its risk and probability for extreme events and the associate uncertainties within the scope of AG2020.

3. Impacts of climate change

Biophysical processes of agroecosystems are strongly affected by environmental conditions. The projected increase in greenhouse gases will affect agroecosystems either directly (primarily by increasing photosynthesis at higher CO2 (Kimball et al., 2002)) or indirectly via effects on climate (e.g. temperature and rainfall affecting several aspects of ecosystem functioning (Olesen and Bindi, 2002)) (Table 1). The exact responses depend on the sensitivity of the particular ecosystem and on the relative changes in the controlling factors. Many studies have assessed effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe (e.g. Harrison et al., 2000; Maracchi et al., 2005). However, relatively little work has been done to link these results across sectors to identify vulnerable regions and farming systems (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). Such assessments are needed to properly identify needs for change in agricultural policy caused by climate change. Table 1. Influence of CO2, temperature, rainfall and wind on various components of the agroecosystem. Component Influence of factor CO2 Temperature Rain/wind Plants Dry matter growth Growth duration Dry matter growth Water use Animals Fodder yield Growth and reproduc- Health tion Water Soil moisture Irrigation demand Groundwater Salinization Soil SOM turnover SOM turnover Wind- and water Nutrient supply erosion Pests/diseases Quality of host biomass Generation time Disease transmission Earliness of attack Weeds Competition Herbicide efficacy Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration stimulates yield of C3 crops and to a lesser extent C4 crops (Fuhrer, 2003). However, recent estimates of the yield benefit from increasing CO2 are smaller than earlier ones (Ainsworth and Long, 2005), and the average annual increase of the next decades is marginal compared with what has been achieved through conventional crop management and breeding (Berntsen et al., 2006). Increasing temperature affects crops primarily via plant development. With warming, the start of active growth is advanced, plants develop faster, and the potential growing season is extended. This may have the greatest effect in colder regions. However, increased temperature reduces crop duration. In wheat, an increase by 1 C during grain fill reduces the length of this phase by 5%, and

yield declines by a similar amount (Olesen et al., 2000). Compared to temperate crops, sensitivity to warming may be even greater in tropical crops, in particular when they are grown at the borders of their natural range. 3.1 Observed impacts The changes in particular in temperature have led to observed changes in the performance of agroecosystems (Table 2). Most of these observed changes reflect a change towards a warmer mean climate. Table 2. Observed climate related changes in European agroecosystems during the latter part of the 20th century. Region Observed change Reference Eurasia Lengthening of growing season by 1 Zhou et al. (2001) day/decade Britian Increased area of silage maize Olesen and Bindi (2004) Southern Scandinavia Finland Advance of potato planting Hilden and Lehtonen (2005) France Increase in growing season of grapevine Duchene and Scheider (2004) and changes in wine quality Jones and Davis (2000) France Advance of maize sowing dates by 20 Benoit and Torre (2004) days Germany Advance in flowering of winter rye Chmielewski et al. (2004) Germany Advance in flowering of fruit trees Menzel (2003) The response of traditional cereal crops to climate change can be illustrated using data for spring barley and winter wheat in Denmark. Data for grain yield were taken from variety trials across Denmark and the average yield of the reference variety was used for each year. The yields of spring barley changed little over the period 1997-2007 and there was no relationship to temperature during the growing season (Fig. 3). In contrast yields of winter wheat decreased during this period, and this appeared to be related to higher growing season temperatures reducing grain yield (Fig. 3). During warm growing seasons, winter wheat and other cereals develop quickly, resulting in earlier flowing and maturity. The shorter growth duration reduces the time available for biomass production, and thus yield. The effect is much larger for winter wheat, because earlier sowing in warm years in spring barley avoids some of the hastened development seen in winter wheat. The development in national grain yields for wheat in the period 1961 to 2006 is shown in Fig. 4 for selected countries in North, Central and Southern Europe. Yields in Northern Europe are limited by cold temperatures, whereas yields in Southern Europe are limited by high temperatures and low rainfall. Yields increased considerably during the period 1970 to 1990 in all countries with the highest absolute increases in Western and Central Europe. The yield increases have level off considerable during the past 10-20 years. There seems still to be a small yield increase during the past 10-20 years in Finland, whereas yields in Greece have been declining. Both effects may be climate related with increasing temperatures being beneficial in Finland, but negative in Greece. The wheat yields in Germany and Greece seem to indicate an increased yield variability, which mostly likely is also related to climate. There are also clear indications that increasing temperatures are causing grain yield reductions globally (Lobell and Field, 2007).

Spring barley 10 9 Yield (Mg ha-1) 8 7 6 5 1996 10 9 Yield (Mg ha-1) 8 7 6 5 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 9.5 2000 2004 2008 1996 Year

Winter wheat

2000

2004

2008

10.0
o

10.5

11.0 11.5

Mean temperature, March to July ( C)

Figure 3. Mean yield of spring barley and winter wheat from variety trials in Denmark. Grain yields in maize have been increasing over the period 1961-2006 in both Central and Southern Europe (Fig. 5). The yields increases seem to be continuing in Belgium and Germany, even in recent years, where wheat yield increases have been leveling off. This has also resulting in a steadily increasing grain maize area in these countries. The yield of grain maize in France and Italy have not increased in recent years, and this is most likely due to warmer climate and a higher frequency of droughts, which reduces the water available for irrigation, and since maize is predominantly an irrigated crop in these countries this has impact on both maize yields and the area cropped with maize.

8 Grain yield (Mg ha-1)

Norway

Finland

8 Grain yield (Mg ha-1)

UK

Germany

8 Grain yield (Mg ha-1)

Spain

Greece

1960

1970

1980 Year

1990

2000

1960

1970

1980 Year

1990

2000

Figure 4. National grain yield of wheat in Northern, Central and Southern European countries for the period 1961 to 2006 (FAOSTAT database).

10

Belgium 30 Maize area (%)

Germany

Area Yield

12 10 8 6 Grain yield (Mg ha ) Grain yield (Mg ha )

-1 -1

20

10 4 2 12 10 8 6 10 4 2 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Figure 5. National grain yield of wheat in Northern, Central and Southern European countries for the period 1961 to 2006 (FAOSTAT database).

France 30 Maize area (%)

Italy

20

The area with silage maize in Northern Europe has been steadily increasing. This is due to warmer temperatures giving higher and more stable yields. This can be illustrated using data from variety trials for silage maize in Denmark (Fig. 6). The results show increasing yields over the period, but this can fully be explained by the increasing temperatures over the period resulting in a more favourable climate for maize production. The Effective Temperature Sum (ETS) with a base temperature of 6 C is often used as a criterion for defining suitability for silage maize. Fig. 6 shows that there is a linear relationship between ETS and silage maize yields, and Fig. 7 clearly shows that the cultivation of maize in two regions in Denmark increased considerably, which ETS exceeded 1200 C. It is therefore most likely that the increased cultivation of maize in Northern Europe is related to the climatic warming.

11

18 16 Dry matter yield (t ha-1) 14 12 10 8 6 4 1980 18 16 Dry matter yield (t ha-1) 14 12 10 8 6 4 900

1985

1990

1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400
o

1500

1600

Effective Temperature Sum, ETS ( Cd)

Figure 6. Mean dry matter yields in variety trials for silage maize in Denmark over the period 1981 to 2007 and against Effective Temperature Sum above 6 C for growing season. For grapevine there have been clear observed changes in phenological characteristics and trends across many of the wine growing regions in France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Slovakia (Jones et al., 2005). This can largely be attributed to climate changes. Over the last 50 years grapevine phenological timing in Europe has tended earlier with more significant changes in later events than earlier events. Few changes in bud break timing across the locations indicate that spring temperature variability may be masking climate trends during the early season. On the other hand, the more significant changes in bloom, vraison, and harvest (6-18 days) hint at a cumulative plant response to growing season changes.

12

Northern Jutland Maize area per dairy cow (ha/cow) 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200

0.10 0.05 0.00 Southern Jutland

1100 1000 900 1600 1500 1400 1300

Maize area per dairy cow (ha/cow)

0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15

1200 0.10 0.05 0.00 1980 1100 1000 900 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Figure 7. Development of silage maize area and Effective Temperature Sum above 6 C for growing season for Southern and Northern Jutland in Denmark. Agroecosystems respond not only to changes in mean climate, but also to changes in frequency of extreme events (Porter and Semenov, 2005). Two such extreme events over the past ten years may be taken as examples of change in frequency of extreme climate events: the flooding in Central Europe in 2002 and the heat wave in Southern and Central Europe in 2003. The floodings in 2002 led to estimated economic damages exceeded 15 billion in the Czech Republic and Germany alone, of which only about 15% was insured (RMS, 2003). However, little of this damage was in the agricultural sector. The heat wave of 2003 on the other hand led to considerable reductions in agricultural production and increased production costs, giving an estimated damage of 13 billion euros (Fink et al., 2004). The hot and dry conditions also led to many large wildfires, in particular in Portugal, where 390.000 ha were affected (Fink et al., 2004). 3.2 Projected impacts

13

Effective Temperature Sum, ETS (oCd)

Effective Temperature Sum, ETS (oCd)

Silage maize area ETS

Climate change will affect crops differently as described below. The impacts described here are not specific for the 2020 period, but generally refers to climate changes for 2050 to 2100. Arable crops A climatic warming will expand the area of cereals cultivation (e.g. wheat and maize) northwards (Kenny et al., 1993; Carter et al., 1996). For wheat, a rise in temperatures will lead to a small yield reduction, which often will be more than counterbalanced by the effect of increased CO2 on crop photosynthesis. The combination of both effects will for a moderate climate change lead to moderate to large yield increases in comparison with yields simulated for the present situation (Ghaffari et al., 2002; van Ittersum et al., 2003). Drier conditions and increasing temperatures in the Mediterranean region and parts of Eastern Europe may lead to lower yields there and the adoption of new varieties and cultivation methods. Such yield reductions has been estimated for Eastern Europe, and the yield variability may increase, especially in the steppe regions (Sirotenko et al., 1997). Potato, as well as other root and tuber crops, has shown a large response to rising atmospheric CO2 (Kimball et al., 2002). On the other hand warming may reduce the growing season in some species and increase water requirements with consequences for yield. Climate change scenario studies performed using crop models show no consistent changes in mean potato yield (Wolf and van Oijen, 2003). For sugar beet yield the increasing occurrence of summer droughts may severely increase yield variability (Jones et al., 2003). However, increased duration of the growing season will increase the yield potential for this crop in Northern Europe, where water supply is adequate. Climate-related increases in crop yields are only expected in Northern Europe, while the largest reductions are expected around the Mediterranean and in the Southwest Balkans and in the South of European Russia (Olesen and Bindi, 2002; Maracchi et al., 2005; Alcamo et al., 2007). In Southern Europe, particularly large decreases in yield are expected for spring-sown crops (e.g. maize, sunflower and soybeans) (Audsley et al., 2006; Moriondo et al., 2006). Whilst, on autumn-sown crops (e.g. winter and spring wheat) the impact is more geographically variable, yield is expected to strongly decrease in the most southern areas and increase in the northern or cooler areas (e.g. northern parts of Portugal and Spain) (Olesen et al., 2007; Santos et al., 2002). However, these results vary between SRES scenarios and climate models (Olesen et al., 2007). Some crops that currently grow mostly in Southern Europe (e.g. maize, sunflower and soybeans) will become more suitable further north or in higher altitude areas in the south (Audsley et al., 2006). The projections for a range of SRES scenarios show a 30 to 50% increase in suitable area for grain maize production in Europe by the end of the 21st century, including Ireland, Scotland, Southern Sweden and Finland (Hildn et al., 2005; Olesen et al., 2007). Moreover, by 2050 energy crops show a northward expansion in potential cropping area, but a reduction in suitability in Southern Europe (Schrter et al., 2005). Perennial crops Many fruit trees are susceptible to spring frosts during flowering. A climatic warming will advance both the date of the last spring frosts and the dates of flowering, and the risk of damage to flower buds caused by late frost are likely to remain largely unchanged (Rochette et al., 2004). Additionally the risk of damage to fruit trees caused by early autumn frosts is likely to decrease. However, there may very well be increased problems with pests and diseases (Salinari et al., 2006). Grapevine is a woody perennial plant, which requires relatively high temperatures. A climatic warming will therefore expand the suitable areas northwards and eastwards (Jones et al., 2005b).

14

However, in the current production areas the yield variability (fruit production and quality) may be higher under global change than at present. Such an increase in yield variability would neither guarantee the quality of wine in good years nor meet the demand for wine in poor years, thus implying a higher economic risk for growers (Bindi et al., 1996). However, yields in grapevine may be strongly stimulated by increased CO2 concentration without causing negative repercussions on the quality of grapes and wine (Bindi et al., 2001). A climatic warming is also likely to lead to unsuitable conditions for currently economically important traditional varieties, at least at their current locations. Olive is a typical Mediterranean species that is particularly sensitive to low temperature and water shortage, thus both the northern and southern limits of cultivation are conditioned by the climate. The area suitable for olive production in the Mediterranean basin may increase with climate warming (Bindi et al., 1992). Several perennial crops are candidates for bioenergy crops (Sims et al., 2006). This includes willow for coppice and reed canary grass and Miscanthus for solid biofuel crops to be used in providing biomass for fuel in combined heat and power plants (Clifton-Brown et al., 2004) or for use in second generation bioethanol production (Farrell et al., 2006). The climatic suitability for many of these perennial bioenergy crops is projected to increase over most of Europe for the 21st century (Tuck et al., 2006). Grasslands Grasslands will differ in their response to climate change depending on their type (species, soil type, management). In general, intensively managed and nutrient-rich grasslands will respond positively to both the increase in CO2 concentration and to a temperature increase, given that water supply is sufficient (Thornley and Cannell, 1997). Nitrogen-poor and species-rich grasslands, which are often extensively managed, may respond differently to climate change and increase in CO2 concentration, and the short-term and long-term responses may be completely different (Cannel and Thornley, 1998). Climate change is likely to alter the community structure of grasslands (Buckland et al., 2001; Lscher et al., 2004), in ways specific to their location and type, and these changes will often depend on complex interactions between soils, plants and animals. Management and speciesrichness of grasslands may increase their resilience to change (Duckworth et al., 2000). Fertile, early succession grasslands have been found to be more responsive to climate change than more mature and/or less fertile grasslands (Grime et al., 2000). In general, intensively managed and nutrient-rich grasslands will respond positively to both increased CO2 concentration and temperature, given that water and nutrient supply is sufficient (Lscher et al., 2004). As a general rule, productivity of European grassland is expected to increase, where water supply is sufficient (Byrne and Jones, 2002; Kammann et al., 2005). On the other hand and increased frequency of summer droughts will severely affect grassland production in the affected areas. Livestock Climate and CO2 effects influence livestock systems through both availability and price of feed and through direct effects on animal health, growth, and reproduction (Fuquay, 1989). The impacts of changes in feed-grain prices or the production of forage crops are generally moderated by market forces. However, effects of climate change on grasslands will have direct effects on livestock living on these pastures. Results from a simulation study suggest that the impact on milk production for grass-based systems in Scotland would vary depending on the locality. Conversely, for herds grazing on grass-clover swards milk output may increase regardless of site, when the concentration of CO2 is enhanced (Topp and Doyle, 1996).

15

For animals, higher temperatures results in greater water consumption and more frequent heat stress (Turnpenny et al., 2001), which causes declines in physical activities, including eating and grazing. Maintenance requirements are increased and voluntary feed intake is decreased at the expense of growth, milk production and reproduction (Mader et al., 2002). Livestock production may therefore be negatively affected in the warm months of the currently warm regions of Europe (Klinedienst et al., 1993; Mader and Davis, 2004). Warming during the cold period for cooler regions may on the other hand be beneficial due to reduced feed requirements, increased survival, and lower energy costs. Impacts will probably be minor for intensive livestock systems (e.g. confined dairy, poultry and pig systems) because climate is controlled to some degree. An increase in the frequency of severe heat stress in Britain is expected to enhance the risk of mortality of pigs and broiler chickens grown in intensive livestock systems (Turnpenny et al., 2001). Increased frequency of droughts along the Atlantic coast (e.g. Ireland) may reduce the productivity of grasslands such that they are no longer sufficient for livestock (Holden and Brereton, 2002). Increasing temperatures may also increase the risk of livestock diseases by (i) increasing the diffusion of insects (e.g. Culicoides imicola) that are the main vectors of several arboviruses (e.g. bluetongue, BT and African horse sickness, AHS); (ii) increasing the survival of viruses from one year to the next; (iii) improving conditions for new insect vectors that are now limited by colder temperatures (Wittmann and Baylis, 2000; Mellor and Wittmann, 2002; Colebrook and Wall, 2004; Gould et al., 2006). Climate change will also affect the turnover and losses of nutrients from animal manure, both in houses, storages and in the field. Examples of this is the increase in ammonia volatilisation with increasing temperature (Sommer and Olesen, 2000; Sommer et al., 2003), and the increase in methane emissions from manure slurry tanks with increasing temperature (Sommer et al., 2004). Weeds, pests and diseases The majority of the pest and disease problems are closely linked with their host crops. This makes major changes in plant protection problems less likely (Coakley et al., 1999). Conditions are more favourable for the proliferation of insect pests in warmer climates, because many insects can then complete a greater number of reproductive cycles (Bale et al., 2002). Warmer winter temperatures may also allow pests to overwinter in areas where they are now limited by cold, thus causing greater and earlier infestation during the following crop season. Insect pests are also affected directly by the CO2 effect through the amount and quality of the host biomass (Cannon, 1998). Climate warming will lead to earlier insect spring activity and proliferation of some pest species (Cocu et al., 2005). A similar situation may be seen for plant diseases leading to an increased demand for pesticide control (Salinari et al., 2006). Unlike pests and diseases, weeds are also directly influenced by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Higher CO2 concentration will stimulate growth and water use efficiency in both C3 and C4 species (Ziska and Bunce, 1997). Differential effects of CO2 and climate changes on crops and weeds will alter the weed-crop competitive interactions, sometimes for the benefit of the crop and sometimes for the weeds. However, interaction with other biotic factors may also influence weed seed survival and thus weed population development (Leishman et al., 2000). Changes in climatic suitability will lead to invasion of weed, pest and diseases adapted to warmer climatic conditions (Baker et al., 2000). The speed at which such invasive species will occur depends on the change of climatic change, the dispersal rate of the species and on measures taken to combat non-indigenous species (Anderson et al., 2004). The dispersal rate of pests and diseases are most often so high that their geographical extent is determined by the range of climatic suitability (Baker et al., 2000). The Colorado beetle, the European cornborer, the Mediterranean

16

fruit fly and karnal bunt are examples of pests and diseases, which are expected to have a considerable northward expansion in Europe under climatic warming. Environmental impacts Environmental impacts of agriculture under a changing climate are becoming more and more important. In particular, the role of nitrate leaching on the quality of aquifers, rivers and estuaries is globally recognized (Galloway, 2004). A warming is expected to increase soil organic matter turnover provided sufficient water is available, and experiment have shown that increases in net N mineralisation rates may be considerably higher than the increases in soil respiration (Rustad et al., 2001). Projections made at European level for winter wheat showed for the 2071-2100 time-slice that decreases in N-leaching predominate over large parts of Eastern Europe and some smaller areas in Spain, whereas increases occur in the UK and in smaller regions over many other parts of Europe (Olesen et al., 2007). This in combination with longer growing seasons for the aquatic ecosystems would likely lead to higher risk of algal blooms and increased growth of toxic cyanobacteria in lakes (Moss et al., 2003; Eisenreich, 2005; Andersen et al., 2006). The climate change scenarios could also lead to increases in GHG emissions from agriculture. Increasing temperatures will speed decomposition where soil moisture allows (Davidson and Janssens, 2006), so direct climate impacts on cropland and grassland soils will tend to decrease SOC stocks for Europe as a whole (Smith et al., 2006). This effect is greatly reduced by increasing C inputs to the soil because of enhanced NPP, resulting from a combination of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, decomposition becomes faster in regions where temperature increases greatly and soil moisture remains high enough to allow decomposition (e.g. North and East Europe), but does not become faster, where the soil becomes too dry, despite higher temperatures (Southern France, Spain, and Italy) (Smith et al., 2006). Extreme events and climatic variability Extreme weather events, such as spells of high temperature, heavy storms, or droughts, can severely disrupt crop production. Individual extreme events will not usually have lasting effects on the agricultural system. However, when the frequency of such events increases agriculture needs to respond, either in terms of adaptation or abandonment. Crops often respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and have threshold responses, which greatly increase the importance of climatic variability and frequency of extreme events for yield, yield stability and quality (Porter and Semenov, 2005). Thus an increase in temperature variability will increase yield variability and also result in a reduction in mean yield (Trnka et al., 2004). Therefore the projected increases in temperature variability over Central and Southern Europe (Schr et al., 2004) may have severe impacts on the agricultural production in this region. In addition to the linear and nonlinear responses of crop growth and development to variation in temperature and rainfall, short-term extreme temperatures can have large yield-reducing effects (Porter and Gawith, 1999; Wheeler et al., 2000). This is particular the case during flowering and fruiting periods, where short-term exposure to high temperatures (usually above 35 C; Porter and Semenov, 2005) can greatly reduce fruit set and therefore yield. Exposure to drought during these periods may have similar effects.

4. Adaptation to climate change

17

To avoid or at least reduce negative effects and exploit possible positive effects, several agronomic adaptation strategies for agriculture have been suggested. Studies on the adaptation of farming systems to climate change need to consider all the agronomic decisions made at the farm level (Kaiser et al., 1993). Economic considerations are very important in this context. Results of farm level analyses on the impact and adaptation to climate change have generally shown a large reduction in adverse impacts when adaptation is fully implemented (Mendelsohn and Dinar, 1999). This often implies changes in agricultural land use (Darwin, 2004; Rounsevell et al., 2006). The agronomic strategies available include both short-term adjustments and long-term adaptations (Easterling, 1996). Autonomous adaptations The short-term adjustments include efforts to optimise production without major system changes. They are autonomous in the sense that no other sectors (e.g. policy, research, etc.) are needed in their development and implementation. Examples of short-term adjustments are changes in varieties, sowing dates and fertiliser and pesticide use (Ghaffari et al., 2002; Alexandrov et al., 2002; Tubiello et al., 2000; Chen and McCarl, 2001). In particular, in Southern Europe short-term adaptations may include changes in crop species (e.g. replacing winter with spring wheat) (Minguez et al., 2007), changes in cultivars and sowing dates (e.g. for winter crops, sowing the same cultivar earlier, or choosing cultivars with longer crop cycle; for summer irrigated crops, earlier sowing for preventing yield reductions or reducing water demand) (Olesen et al., 2007). There are many plant traits that may be modified to better adapt varieties to increased temperature and reduced water supply (Sinclair and Muchow, 2001). However, the effectiveness of such traits depend on whether there is simultaneous change climatic variability, and a combination of traits may be needed to stabilise yield in poor years, without sacrificing yield in good years (Porter et al., 1995; Sinclair and Muchow, 2001). In Northern Europe new crops and varieties may be introduced only if improved varieties will be introduced to respond to specific characteristics of the growing seasons (e.g. length of the day) (Hilden et al., 2005). Long-term adaptations The long-term adaptations refer to major structural changes to overcome adversity caused by climate change. This involves changes in land allocation and farming systems, breeding of crop varieties, new land management techniques, etc. This involves changes of land use that result from the farmer's response to the differential response of crops to climate change. The changes in land allocation may also be used to stabilise production. This means substitution of crops with high interannual yield variability (e.g. wheat or maize) by crops with lower productivity but more stable yields (e.g. pasture or sorghum). Crop substitution may be useful also for the conservation of soil moisture. Long lead times in crop substitution are present for the perennial crops (e.g. grapevine, olive and fruit trees), and here adequate and region specific information on climate change and suitable species and varieties are critical for efficient adaptation. Other examples of long-term adaptations include breeding of crop varieties, new land management techniques to conserve water or increase irrigation use efficiencies, and more drastic changes in farming systems (including land abandonment). Increasing the supply of water for irrigation for irrigation may not be a viable option in much of Southern Europe, since the projections show a considerable reduction in total runoff (Lehner et al., 2006). Changes in farming systems

18

The farm is typically the entity at which adaptation to climate change and climatic variability must take place through introduction of new management methods and technologies. Because of the complexities of processes, management and inter-relationships of land use within a farm, studies on farming systems require a holistic approach (Rivington et al., 2006). Climate change will not only affect crop yield, but total farm-level production through effects on altered carbon and nitrogen flows resulting from changed crop and residue quality, crop resource use, or mineralisation of soil organic matter (Drueri et al., 2006). Adaptation will have to deal with all of these issues, and the links with water availability may be among the most important ones, affecting the need for improving irrigation efficiencies (Tavakkoli and Oweis, 2004) or the need for terracing (Wadsworth and Swetham, 1988; Fuhrer et al., 2006). Recent studies at European level have demonstrated the need to include changes in climate and non-climate factors (technological, socio-economic, etc.) for assessing the changes in crop yield and suitability (Schrter et al., 2005). A different allocation of European agricultural land use seems to represent one of the major long-term adaptation strategies available. Rounsevell et al. (2005) estimate a decline of up to 50% in cropland and grassland areas under the A1FI and A2 scenarios. For the A1FI and A2 scenarios both the quantity and the spatial distribution of crops will change, whilst, for the B1 and B2 scenarios the pressures toward declining agricultural areas should be counterbalanced by policy mechanisms that seek to limit crop productivity. Changes in farming systems may also play a fundamental role in the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change. The interpretation of four IPCC-SRES scenarios suggests that different types of adaptation of farming systems (intensification, extensification and abandonment) may be appropriate for particular scenarios and areas (high latitude and altitude, marginal areas, etc.) (Berry et al., 2006). The sensitivity to climate change of farming systems may depend on the degree of diversification. However, based on data from a large number of operations in Canadian prairie agriculture, farms have recently become more specialized, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future (Bradshaw et al., 2004). A similar situation is likely to take place in Europe, although the trend to organic farming in some areas and the urbanization of some rural areas may restrict this development. Finally, the substitution of food production by energy production through the widespread cultivation of bioenergy crops (Tuck et al., 2006). Several temperate and Mediterranean crop species are suitable for various types of biofuels, including oilseed crops, starch crops, cereals and solid biofuel crops. All climate change scenarios show a northward expansion of these species with Northern Europe becoming more favourable for most species. However, the choice of energy crops in Southern Europe may be severely reduced in future, both due to increased temperatures and reduced rainfall. Taking in to account potential impacts and adaptive capacity, the vulnerability of agriculture based on Farmer livelihood (profit) have been analysed for EU15 (Metzger et al., 2006). The results show the agricultural sector in the Mediterranean region as vulnerable under most climate change scenarios starting at different time slices, depending on the scenario used. The A1FI and A2 scenarios anticipate greater vulnerability throughout; whilst the B2 scenario seems to be least harmful for farmer livelihood (Metzger et al., 2006).

5. Indicators of climate change impacts

19

In AG2020 climate change impacts will be considered both at the EU level and within the regional case studies. For the EU level analyses simple indicators will be applied based on climate model output to define changes in irrigation capacity, yield level and yield variability and suitability for selected crops for all regions in EU. For the regional case studies the simple EU level indicators will also be of value. However, additional simple indicators for climate change will be used for discussing the impact of climate change with the stakeholders in the region. These simple indicators will also consider risks of crops to climatic extremes, such as critical temperatures during flowering phases (Wheeler et al., 2000). 5.1 Indicators at EU level Irrigated area in Southern Europe The changes in rainfall within a region are here assumed to be transferred directly into water available for irrigation and proportionally into irrigated area. The total annual water balance or runoff (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) as a mean over 10 years around 2020 minus the runoff in the baseline period (1961-90) is assumed to define the change in irrigation capacity. The percent change in mean runoff is used directly to scale the irrigated area in the region. Mean crop yield The simple statistical model for winter wheat yield response to climate and climate change of Olesen et al. (2007) will be used for addressing climate change effects on mean crop yields. This model uses data on soil water holding capacity, CO2 concentration, and seasonal means of rainfall and air temperature. Variation in crop yields Changes in yield variation are assumed to be related primarily to changes in extreme or severe weather events. These severe events are considered to be associated with droughts, high/extended rainfall and high temperatures. For the drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used as described by Alley (1984). For the high/extended rainfall, two indicators are calculated on monthly basis. The total rainfall indicator assumes that a monthly rainfall above 100 mm gives risk of crop losses: I Ri = max [1, Ri /100] where IRi is the rainfall intensity index for month i, and Ri is the rainfall in month i (mm). The rain duration indicator assumes that the number of rainy days (>4 mm) above a threshold of 15 days will give rise to crop losses, e.g. through increased risk of diseases: IWi = max [1, Wi /15] where IWi is the rainfall duration index for month i, and Wi is the number of days in month i with a rainfall above 4 mm.

20

The cumulative indicator for high/extended rainfall is calculated by multiplying the two indicators and averaging over the growing season:

I P = ( I Ri IWi ) / ( m2 m1 + 1)
i = m1

m2

where m1 and m2 are the first and last months of the growing season, respectively. These months vary through Europe and are set to April to August for Northern Europe and February to June for Southern Europe. The high temperature indicator (IT) considers the duration of high temperature events, which is taken as the number of days with maximum temperatures above 35 C (Porter and Semenov, 2005). This again is calculated for the growing season taken as April to August in Northern Europe and February to June in Southern Europe. Suitability for crop production A range of simple indicators for suitability for cultivation of specific crops will also be applied. These indicators will primarily concern the cultivation of warm season crops (e.g. maize, sunflower, soybean and grapevine). For annual warm season crops a simple Effective Temperature Sum (ETS) index will be used: ETS = (Ti Tb )+ The ETS accumulates daily mean temperatures (Ti) above a threshold temperature (Tb) for the growing season of a give crop. An area can be considered suitable for cultivation, provided the ETS exceeds a given requirement, which depends on crop type and variety (Table 3). Table 3. Examples of requirements for Effective Temperature Sum (ETS) of selected annual crops (Carter et al., 1991). Crop and variety Summation period Tb (C) ETS requirement (Cd) Grain maize 10 1 Jan 31 Dec 850 Sunflower Early 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1580 Medium 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1680 Late 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1780 Soya bean Early 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1500 Medium 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1650 Late 6 15 Apr 30 Sep 1920 For perennial crop like grapevine the ETS concept may also be applied, e.g. with a base temperature of 10 C (Duchene and Schneider, 2005). An alternative is to use the Huglin index, which gives a greater weight to maximum temperatures (Huglin, 1978). This index is typically calculated from April to September: T 10 + Txi 10 HI = K mi 2 + where Tmi is daily mean temperature on day i, Txi is maximum temperature on day i, and K is an index that depends on latitude.

21

5.2. Indicators related to adaptation at regional level

For the case studies performed in AG2020 a more detailed analysis of the suitable crops under climate change for the period 2020 will be performed. This will be based on suitability indicators as outlined in section 5.1, and on a more detailed study of possible threats to crop production as related to climatic stresses in various parts of the growing season of the crops (Wheeler et al., 2000). A survey of the main vulnerabilities and possible adaptation options will also be performed among agronomists, advisors and farmers in the regions. This will identify the main climatic challenges in these case study regions. Such analysis may be generalised to larger regions using an environmental stratification such as the one proposed by Metzger et al. (2005) (Fig. 8).

Figure 8. Environmental zones in Europe (Metzger et al., 2005).

References
Abildtrup, J., Audsley, E., Fekete-Farkas, M., Giupponi, C., Gylling, M., Rosato, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., 2005. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use. Environ. Sci. Pol. 9, 101-115.

22

Ainsworth, E.A., Long, S.P., 2005. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol. 165, 351-372. Alcamo, J., Moreno, J.M., Novky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R., Devoy, R.J.N., Giannakopoulos, C., Martin, E., Olesen, J.E., Shvidenko, A., 2007. Europe. In Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. & Hanson, C.E. (Eds): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580. Alexandrov, V., Eitzinger, J., Cajic, V., Oberforster, M., 2002. Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria. Global Change Biol. 8, 372-389. Alley, W.M., 1984. The Palmer drought severity index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 1100-1109. Andersen, H.E., Kronvang, B., Larsen, S.E., Hoffmann, C.C., Jensen, T.S., Rasmussen, E.K., 2006. Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin. Sci. Tot. Environ. 365, 223237. Andr, J.-C., Dqu, M., Rogel, P., Planton, S., 2004. La vague de chaleur de l't 2003 et sa prvision saisonnire. Geoscience 336, 491-503. Anderson, P.K., Cunningham, A.A., Patel, N.G., Morales, F.J., Epstein, P.R., Daszak, P., 2004. Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19, 535-544. Audsley, E., Pearn, K.R., Simota, C., Cojocaru, G., Koutsidou, E., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Trnka, M., Alexandrov, V., 2006. What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not? Environ. Sci. Pol. 9, 148-168. Baker, R.H.A., Sansford, C.E., Jarvis, C.H., Cannon, R.J.C., MacLeod, A., Walters, K.F.A., 2000. The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 82, 57-71. Bale, J.S., Masters, G.J., Hodkinson, I.D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T.M., Brown, V.K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J.C., Farrar, J., Good, J.E.G., Harrington, R., Harley, S., Jones, T.H., Lindroth, R.L., Press, M.C., Symrnioudis, I., Watt, A.D., Whittaker, J.B., 2002. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biol. 8, 1-16. Beniston, M., 2004. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Let. 31, L02202. Beniston, M., Diaz, H.F., 2004. The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Global Planet. Change 44, 73-81. Benoit, M., le Torre, C.D., 2004: Changement climatique et observation long terme en units exprimentales ; volution des pratiques agricoles et des rponses physiologiques des couverts vgtaux. Journes MICCES 2004. Berry, P.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Harrison, P.A., Audsley, E., 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environ. Sci. Pol. 9, 189-204. Bindi, M., Ferrini, F., Miglietta, F., 1992. Climatic change and the shift in the cultivated area of olive trees. J. Agric. Mediter. 22, 41-44. Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S., Miglietta, F., 1996. Modeling the impact of future climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine. Clim. Res. 7, 213-224.

23

Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Miglietta, F., 2001. Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.): II. Growth and quality of grape and wine in reponse to elevated CO2 concentrations. Eur. J. Agron. 14, 145-155. Bouma, J., Varallyay, G., Batjes, N.H., 1998. Principal land use changes anticipated in Europe. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 67, 103-119. Bradshaw, B., Holly, D., Smit, B., 2004. Farm-level adaptation to climatic variability and change: crop diversification in the Canadian Prairies. Clim. Change 67, 119-141. Buckland, S.M., Thompson, K., Hodgson, J.G., Grime, J.P., 2001, Grassland invasions: effects of manipulations of climate and management. J. Appl. Ecol. 38, 301-309. Byrne, C., Jones M.B., 2002. Effects of elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilizer on biomass productivity, community structure and species diversity of a semi-natural grassland in Ireland. Proc. R. Irish Acad. 102B, 141-150. Cannell, M.G.R., Thornley, J.H.M., 1998. N-poor ecosystems may respond more to elevated [CO2] than N-rich ones in the long term. A model analysis of grassland. Global Change Biol. 4, 431442. Cannon, R.J.C., 1998. The implications of predicted climate change for insect pests in the UK, with emphasis on non-indigenous species. Global Change Biol. 4, 785-796. Carter, T.R., Porter, J.H., Parry, M.L., 1991. Climatic warming and crop potential in Europe. Global Environmental Change 1, 291-312. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., Niemi, K.J., 1996. Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland. Agric. Food Sci. Finland 3, 329-349. Chen, C.C., McCarl, B.A., 2001. An investigation of the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change. Clim. Change 50, 475-487. Chloupek, O., Hrstkova, P., Schweigert, P., 2004. Yield and its stability, crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change, weather and fertilisation over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries. Field Crops Res..85, 167-190. Chmielewski, F.-M., Mller, A., Bruns, E., 2004. Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961-2000. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 121, 69-78. Christensen, J.H., Christensen, O.B., 2002. Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421, 805-806. Ciais, Ph., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Oge, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De Noblet, N., Friend, A.D., Friedlingstein, P., Grnwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J.M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J.F., Sanz, M.J., Schulze, E.D., Vesala, T., Valentini, R., 2005. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437, 529-533. Clifton-Brown, J.C., Stampfl, P.F., Jones, M.B., 2004. Miscanthus biomass production for energy in Europe and its potential contribution to decreasing fossil fuel carbon emissions. Global Change Biol. 10, 509-518. Coakley, S.M., Scherm, H., Chakraborty, S., 1999. Climate change and plant disease management. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 37, 399-426. Cocu, N. et al., 2005. Geographical location, climate and land use influences on the phenology and numbers of the aphid, Myzus persicae, in Europe. J. Biogeography 32, 615-632. Colebrook, E., Wall, R., 2004. Ectoparasites of livestock in Europe and the Mediterranean region. Vet. Parasitology 120, 251-274. Darwin, R., Kennedy, D., 2000. Economic effects of CO2 fertilization of crops: transforming changes in yield into changes in supply. Environ. Model. Assess. 5, 157-168.

24

Darwin, R., 2004. Effects of greenhouse gas emissions on world agriculture, food consumption, and economic welfare. Clim. Change 66, 191-238. Davidsson, E.A., Janssens, I.A., 2006. Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change. Nature 440, 165-173. Dueri, S., Calanca, P.L., Fuhrer, J., 2006. Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss - A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model. Agric. Syst. (in press). Duchene, E., Schneider, C., 2004. Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 25, 93-99. Duckworth, J.C., Bunce, R.G.H., Malloch, A.J.C., 2000. Modelling the potential effects of climate change on calcareous grasslands in Atlantic Europe. J. Biogeography 27, 347-358. Easterling, W.E., 1996. Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 80, 1-53. Eisenreich, S.J. (Ed.), 2005. Climate change and the European Water Dimension. Report to the European Water Directors. European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. EUR 21553, 253 pp. Ewert, F., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Metzger, M.J., Leemans, R., 2005. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107, 101-116. Farrell, A.E., Plevin, R.J., Turner, B.T., Jones, A.D., O'Hare, M., Kammen, D.M., 2006. Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals. Science 311, 506-508. Fink, A.H., Brcher, T., Krger, A., Leckebusch, G.C., Pinto, J.G., Ulbrich, U., 2004: The 2003 European summer heat waves and drought - Synoptic diagnosis and impact. Weather 59, 209216. Flrke, M., Alcamo, J., 2005. European outlook on water use. Prepared for the European Environment Agency. Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Tank, A.M.G.K., Peterson, T., 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res. 19, 193-212. Fuhrer, J., 2003. Agroecosystem responses to combinations of elevated CO2, ozone, and global climate change. Agriculture, Ecosyst. Environ. 97, 1-20. Fuhrer, J., Beniston, M., Fischlin, A., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Jasper, K., Pfister, C., 2006. Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. Clim. Change (in press). Fuquay, J.W., 1989. Heat stress as it affects animal production. J. Animal Sci. 52, 164-174. Galloway, J. N., Dentener, F. J., Capone, D.G., Boyer, E.W., Howarth, R.W., Seitzinger, S.P., Anser, G.P., Cleveland, C.C., Green, P.A., Holland, E.A., Karl, D.M., Michaels, A.F., Porter, J.H., Townsend, A.R., Vrsmarty, C.J., 2004. Nitrogen cycles: past, present, and future. Biogeochem. 70, 153-226. Ghaffari, A., Cook, H.F., Lee, H.C., 2002. Climate change and winter wheat management: A modelling scenario for South-Eastern England. Clim. Change 55, 509-533. Gould, E.A., Higgs, S., Buckley, A., Gritsun, T.S., 2006. Potential arbovirus emergence and implications for the United Kingdom. Emerging Infect. Dis. 12, 549-555. Grime, J.P., Brown, V.K., Thompson, K., Masters, G.J., Hillier, S.H., Clarke, I.P., Askew, A.P., Corker, D., Kielty, J.P., 2000. The response of two contrasting limestone grasslands to simulated climate change. Science 289, 762-765. Harrison, P.A., Butterfield, R.E., Orr, J.L., 2000. Modelling climate change impacts on wheat, potato and grapevine in Europe' In: Downing, T.E., Harrison, P.A., Butterfield, R.E., Lonsdale, K.G. (Eds.) Climate change, climatic variability and agriculture in Europe. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, UK, pp. 367-390.

25

Helms, M., Bchele, B., Merkel, U., Ihringer, J., 2002. Statistical analysis of the flood situation and assessment of the impact of diking measures along the Elbe (Labe) river. J. Hydrol. 267, 94-114. Hilden, M., Lethtonen, H. 2005. The practice and process of adaptation in Finnish agriculture. FINADAPT Working paper 5, Helsinki, Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 335. Holden, N.M., Brereton, A.J., 2002. An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on grass yield in Ireland over the next 100 years. Irish J. Agric. Food Res. 41, 213-226. Holman, I.P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Shackley, S., Harrison, P.A., Nicholls, R.J., Berry, P.M., Audsley, E., 2005. A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part I Methodology. Clim. Change, 70, 9-41. Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A., 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Huglin, P., 1978. Noveau mode d`valuation des des possibilits hliothermiques dun milieu viticole, C.R. Acad. Agric., 11171126. Jacob, D., Brring, L., Christensen, O.B., Christensen, J.H., de Castro, M., Dqu, M., Giorgi, F., Hagemann, S., Hirschi, M., Jones, R., Kjellstrm, E., Lenderink, G., Rockel, B., Snchez, E., Schr, C., Seneviratne, S.I., Somot, S., van Ulden, A.., van den Hurk, B., 2007. An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic Change 81, 31-52. Jones, G.V., Davis, R., 2000. Climate influences on grapewine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. Am. J. Enol. Viticult. 51, 249-261. Jones, P.D., Moberg, A., 2003. Hemispheric and large scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Clim. 16, 206-223. Jones, P.D., Lister, D.H., Jaggard, K.W., Pidgeon, J.D., 2003. Future climate impact on the productivity of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) in Europe. Clim. Change 58, 93-108. Jones, G.V., Duchene, E., Tomasi, D., Yuste, J., Braslavska, O., Schultz, H., Martinez, C., Boso, S., Langellier, F., Perruchot, C., Guimberteau, G., 2005a. Changes in European winegrape phenology and relationships with climate. GESCO. Jones, G.V., White, M.A., Cooper, O.R., Storchmann, K., 2005b. Climate change and global wine quality. Clim. Change 73, 319-343. Kaiser, H.M., Riha, S.J., Wilks, D.S., Rossiter, D.G., Sampath, R., 1993. A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 75, 387-398. Kammann, C., Grnhage, L., Grters, U., Janze, S., Jger, H.-J., 2005. Response of aboveground grassland biomass to moderate long-term CO2 enrichment. Basic Appl. Ecol. 6, 351-365. Kenny, G.J., Harrison, P.A., Olesen, J.E., Parry, M.L., 1993, The effects of climate change on land suitability of grain maize, winter wheat and cauliflower in Europe. Eur. J. Agron. 2, 325-238. Kimball, B.A., Kobayahsi, K., Bindi, M., 2002. Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Adv. Agron. 77, 293-368. Kjellstrm, E., 2004. Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe. Ambio 33, 193198. Klein Tank, A.M.G., 2004. Changing temperature and Precipitation extremes in Europe's climate of the 20th Century. Utrecht, University of Utrecht. Klein Tank, A.M.G., Knnen, G.P., 2003. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. J. Clim. 16, 3665-3680. Klein Tank, A.M.G. et al., 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. Clim. 22, 1441-1453. Klinedienst, P.L., Wilhite, D.A., Hahn, G.L., Hubbard, K.G., 1993. The potential effects of climate change on summer season dairy cattle milk production and reproduction. Clim. Change 23, 21-

26

36. Lehner, B., Dll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, H., Kaspar, F., 2006, Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis, Clim. Change 75, 273-299. Leishman, M.R., Masters, G.J., Clarke, I.P., Brown, V.K., 2000. Seed bank dynamics: the role of fungal pathogens and climate change. Func. Ecol. 14, 293-299. Lobell, D.B., Field, C.B., 2007. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters 2, 014002. doi: 10.1088/17489326/2/1/014002. Lscher, A., Daepp, M., Blum, H., Hartwig, U.E., Nsberger, J., 2004. Fertile temperate grassland under elevated atmospheric CO2 - role of feed-back mechanisms and availability of growth resources. Eur. J. Agron. 21, 379-398. Mader, T.L., Davis, M.S., 2004: Effect of management strategies on reducing heat stress of feedlot cattle: feed and water intake. J. Animal Sci. 82, 3077-3087. Mader, T.L., Holt, S.M., Hahn, G.L., Daivs, M.S., Spiers, D.E., 2002. Feeding strategies for managing heat load in feedlot cattle. J. Animal Sci. 80, 2373-2382. Maracchi, G., Sirotenko, O., and Bindi, M., 2005. Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe. Clim. Change 70, 117-135. Marsh, J., 2005. The implications of Common Agricultural Policy reform for farmers in Europe. Farm Pol. J. 2 (2), 1-11. Meehl, G.A., Tebaldi, C., 2004. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st Century. Science 305, 994-997. Mellor, P.S., Wittmann, E.J., 2002. Bluetongue virus in the Mediterranean Basin 1998-2001. Vet. J. 164, 20-37. Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., 1999. Climate change, agriculture, and developing countries: Does adaptation matter? World Bank Obs. 14, 277-293. Menzel, A., 2003. Plant phenological anomalies in Germany and their relation to air temperature and NAO. Clim. Change 57, 243. Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G., Mcher, C.A., Watkins, J.W., 2005. A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Global. Ecology and Biogeography 14, 549-563. Metzger, M.J., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Acosta-Michlik, L., Leemans, R., Schrter, D., 2006. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114, 6985. Minguez, M.I., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Daz-Ambrona, C.H., Quemada, M., Sau, F., 2007. First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian peninsula. Clim. Change 81 (suppl 1), 343-355. Moss, B., Mckee, D., Atkinson, D., Collings, S.E., Eaton, J.W., Gill, A.B., Harvey, I., Hatton, K., Heyes, T., Wilson, D., 2003. How important is climate? Effects of warming, nutrient addition and fish on phytoplankton in shallow lake microcosms. J. Appl. Ecol. 40, 782-792. OECD, 2004. Analysis of the 2003 CAP reform. OECD publications, Paris. Olesen, J.E., Bindi, M., 2002. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur. J. Agron. 16, 239-262. Olesen, J.E., Bindi, M., 2004. Agricultural impacts and adaptations to climate change in Europe. Farm Pol. J. 1(3), 36-46. Olesen, J.E., Jensen, T., Petersen, J., 2000. Sensitivity of field-scale winter wheat production in Denmark to climate variability and climate change. Clim. Res. 15, 221-238. Olesen, J.E., Carter, T.R., Diaz-Ambrona, C.H., Fronzek, S., Heidmann, T., Hickler, T., Holt, T., Minguez, M.I., Morales, P., Palutikov, J., Quemada, M., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rubk, G., Sau, F., Smith, B., Sykes, M., 2007. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European

27

agriculture and ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81, 123-143. Pal, J.S., Giorgi, F., Bi, X.Q., 2004. Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections. Geophys. Res. Let. 31, L13202. Parry, M.L. (ed.), 2000. Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom. Porter, J.R., Gawith, M., 1999. Climatic variability and development of wheat: a review. Eur. J. Agron. 10, 23-36. Porter, J.R., Semenov, M.A., 2005. Crop responses to climatic variation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2021-2035. Porter, J..R., Leigh,R.A., Semenov, M.A., Miglietta, F., 1995. Modelling the effects of climatic change and genetic modification on nitrogen use by wheat. Eur. J. Agron. 4, 419-429. Reilly, J., Schimmelpfennig, D., 1999. Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation. Clim. Change 43, 745-788. Rivington, M., Matthews, K.B., Bellocchi, G., Buchan, K., Stckle, C.O., Donatelli, M., 2006. An integrated modelling approach to conduct multi-factorial analyses on the impacts of climate change on whole-farm systems. Environ. Model. Software 22, 202-210. RMS, 2003. Central Europe flooding, August 2002. Event report. Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Rochette, P., Belanger, G., Castonguay, Y., Bootsma, A., Mongrain, D., 2004. Climate change and winter damage to fruit trees in eastern Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 84, 1113-1125. Rounsevell, M.D.A., Ewert, F., Reginster, I., Leemans, R., Carter, T.R., 2005. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107, 117-135. Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Arajo, M.B., Carter, T.R., Dendoncker, N., Ewert, F., House, J.I., Kankaanp, S., Leemans, R., Metzger, M.J., Schmit, C., Smith, P., Tuck, G., 2006. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114, 57-68. Rustad, L.E., Campbell, J.L, Marion, G.M., Borby, R.J., Mitchell, M.J., Hartley, A.E., Cornelissen, J.H.C., Gurevitch, J., 2001. A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming. Oecologica 126, 543-562. Salinari, F., Giosue, S., Tubiello, F.N., Rettori, A., Rossi, V., Spanna, F., Rosenzweig, C., Gullino, M.L., 2006. Downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grapevine under climate change. Global Change Biol. 12, 1299-1307. Santos, F.D., Forbes, K., Moita, R. (eds.) 2002. Climate change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures. SIAM project report, Gradiva, Lisbon, Portugal, 456 pp. Schr, C., Jendritzky, G., 2004. Climate change: Hot news from summer 2003. Nature 432, 559560. Schr, C., Vidale, P.L., Lthi, D., Frei, C., Hberli, C., Liniger, M.A., Appenzeller, C., 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332-336. Schrter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I.C., Arajo, M.B., Arnell, N.W., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H., Carter, T.R., Gracia, C.A., de la Vega-Leinert, A.C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J.I., Kankaap, S., Klein, R.J.T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Metzger, M.J., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T.D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabat, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J., Smith, P., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zaehle, S., Zierl, B., 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310, 1333-1337. Sims, R.E.H., Hastings, A., Schlamadinger, B., Taylor, G., Smith, P., 2006. Energy crops: current status and future prospects. Global Change Biol. 12, 2054-2076.

28

Sinclair, T.R., Muchow, R.C., 2001. Systems analysis of plant traits to increase grain yield on limited water supplies. Agron. J. 93, 263-270. Sirotenko, O.D., Abashina, H.V., Pavlova, V.N., 1997. Sensitivity of the Russian agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility. Clim. Change 36, 217-232. Smith, J., Smith, P., Wattenbach, M., Zaehle, S., Hiederer, R., Jones, R.J.A., Montanarella, L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Ewert, F., 2006. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Global Change Biol. 11, 2141-2152. Sommer, S.G., Olesen, J.E., 2000. Modelling ammonia volatilization from animal slurry applied to cereals. Atmos. Environ. 34, 2361-2372. Sommer, S.G., Gneremont, S., Cellier, P., Hutchings, N.J., Olesen, J.E., Morvan, T., 2003. Processes controlling ammonia emission from livestock slurry in the field. Eur. J. Agron. 19, 465486. Sommer, S.G., Petersen, S.O., Mller, H.B., 2004. Algorithms for calculating methane and nitrous oxide emissions from manure management. Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst. 69, 143-154. Tavakkoli, A.R., Oweis, T.Y., 2006. The role of supplemental irrigation and nitrogen in producing bread wheat in the highlands of Iran. Agric. Water Manage. 65, 225-236. Thornley, J.H.M., Cannell, M.G.R., 1997. Temperate grassland responses to climate change: an analysis using the Hurley pasture model. Ann. Bot. 80, 205-221. Topp, C.F.E., Doyle, C.J., 1996. Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland: 2. The effects on milk yields and grazing management of dairy herds. Agric. Syst. 52, 243-270. Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., Zhai, P., 2007. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 235-336. Trnka, M., Dubrovski, M., Semerdov, D., Zalud, Z., 2004. Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields. Theor. Appl. Meteorol. 77, 229-249. Tuck, G., Glendining, M.J., Smith, P., House, J.I., Wattenbach, M., 2006. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate. Biomass Bioener. 30, 83-197. Tubiello F.N., Donatelli, M., Rosenzweig, C., Stockle, C.O., 2000. Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. Eur. J. Agron. 13, 179-189. Turnpenny, J.R., Parsons, D.J., Armstrong, A.C., Clark, J.A., Cooper, K., Matthews, A.M., 2001. Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 2. Intensive systems. Global Change Biol. 7, 163-170. van der Ploeg, R.R., Schweigert, P., 2001. Elbe river flood peaks and postwar agricultural land use in East Germany. Naturwissenschaft 88, 522-525. van Ittersum, M.K., Howden, S.M., Asseng, S., 2003. Sensitivity of productivity and deep drainage of wheat cropping systems in a Mediterranean environment to changes in CO2, temperature and precipitation. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 97, 255-273. Wadsworth, R., Swetnam, R., 1988. Modelling the impact of climate warming at the landscape scale: will bench terraces become economically and ecologically viable structures under changed climates? Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 68, 27-39. Wheeler, T.R., Crauford, P.Q., Ellis, R.H., Porter, J.R., Vara Prasad, P.V., 2000. Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 82, 159-167.

29

Wittmann, E.J., Baylis, M., 2000. Climate change: Effects on Culicoides-transmitted viruses and implications for the UK. Vet. J. 160, 107-117. Wolf, J., van Oijen, M., 2003. Model simulation of effects of changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 and O3 on tuber yield potential of potato (cv. Bintje) in the European Union. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 94, 141-57. Zhou, L.M. et al. 2001. Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 106, 20069-20083. Ziska, L.H., Bunce, J.A., 1997. Influence of increasing carbon dioxide concentration on the photosynthetic and growth stimulation of selected C4 crops and weeds. Photosyn. Res. 54, 199-208.

30