M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Economic Forces That Shape

Montgomery County
Annual Update 2004
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

2004 Conclusions
• National downturn felt in local job market
between 2nd quarters of 2002 and 2003.
• Jobs: private sector up slightly, but mostly
low- and mid-wage industries.
• Federal impact: leasing & employment
outlook still strong
• Commercial market: “short, mild” recession
longer than expected.
• Housing market: price increases accelerate
as affordability suffers.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Pluses & Minuses

+ Jobs: private sector adds some jobs during
depth of recession, second half of 2003
looks better, unemployment rate still low
+ Federal government retains strong role as
employer and tenant
+ County still in good position to weather
commercial space recession
+ Housing market still extremely strong
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Pluses & Minuses

- Jobs declined in second quarter. Losses felt
disproportionately in technology and other
high-wage industries
- Commercial construction: exiting short, mild
recession phase; vacancy rates are up
- Housing affordability worsens.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Notes on the data

• Federal procurement data: The Federal Procurement Data Center has not yet
released procurement data for FY 2003. They expect to release the information within
the month. As soon as it is available, staff will prepare and distribute our annual
analysis of Montgomery County’s federal procurement trends.
• Jobs data classification: Several years ago, federal and state agencies changed their
approach for classifying jobs by industry. With this edition of “Economic Forces,” we
have completed our transition to using the current approach, called the North
American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). For this reason, many of the job
totals by industry in this report will be different than those reported in previous
editions.
• Jobs data limitations: Jobs that are not covered by unemployment insurance are not
included in this jobs series. These include sole proprietorships, farm workers, some
domestic workers, and unpaid family workers. Certain non-profit employers, such as
churches, may not be counted. Some students and spouses of students in the employ
of schools, colleges, and universities are also excluded.
• Local government employment: Problems have been identified with the reporting of
local government employment for the period covered by this report. The Montgomery
County Department of Finance has made adjustments to the number of local
government jobs reported by the state. This report uses the Department of Finance
adjusted figures.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Job Gr owt h
Perfor ma nce
2nd Quarter 2002 to 2nd Quarter 2003
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Job growth themes

• The number of jobs increased by 1,921 to
452,169
• Biotech bright spot among tech sectors.
– Aerospace: down 17%
– Biotechnology: up 5%
– Infotech & telecom (infocom): down 3%
– High tech manufacturing: down 11%
• Higher wage industries lost jobs.
• Third quarter preview: jobs up 384 over
previous year.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Total jobs grew by about 1,900

25,000
Second quarter figures (change from previous year)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

2002
2003
2001
-10,000
-15,000
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data
-20,000

Between the second quarters of 2002 and 2003, Montgomery

County added 1,921 jobs, or 0.4 percent.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Financial sector adds most jobs.

2002 2003 Change
Natural Resources and Mining 488 641 31.6%
Construction 29,220 28,905 -1.1
Manufacturing 17,514 16,236 -7.3
Trade, Transportation and Utilities 65,337 64,523 -1.3
Information 16,063 15,265 -5.0
Finance Activities (incl. Real Estate) 33,304 35,204 5.7
Professional & Business Services 96,015 96,035 0.0
Education & Health Services 52,051 53,672 3.1
Leisure & Hospitality Services 38,015 39,045 3.1
Other Services 21,543 22,012 2.7
Private Sector 370,693 372,087 0.4

Public Sector 79,627 80,325 1.2

Federal & State Government 41,865 42,377 1.2
Local Government 37,270 37,715 1.2

Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2); local government employment data
adjusted by Montgomery Co. Department of Finance.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Tech jobs losses continue locally

and nationally
135
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
130
125
Index: 1990Q1=100

120
115
Montgomery Co.
110
105 Maryland
100 United States
95
90
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
1988Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2
1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3

2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 51,000 high tech jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Aerospace jobs drop sharply

115
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
110
105
Index: 1990Q1=100

100
95
90 Maryland
United States
85
80 Montgomery Co.
75
70
1988Q1

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 15,000 aerospace industry jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Biotech grows 5%
200
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
190 Montgomery Co.
180
170
Index: 1990Q1=100

160
150
140
130 Maryland
120 United States
110
100
1988Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2
1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 8,500 biotech industry jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

County infocom jobs down 3%

160
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
150
140
Index: 1990Q1=100

130
120
United States
110 Maryland
100 Montgomery Co.
90
80
1988Q1

1991Q1

1993Q2

1995Q3

1997Q4

2000Q4

2003Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2

1991Q4
1992Q3

1994Q1
1994Q4

1996Q2
1997Q1

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1

2001Q3
2002Q2
There are 19,500 information technology and telecommunications
industry jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

County has 1,100 fewer high

tech manufacturing jobs
120
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)

110
Index: 1990Q1=100

100

90
Montgomery Co.
80
Maryland
70 United States

60
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
1988Q1
1988Q4

1992Q3
1993Q2

1997Q1
1997Q4

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 8,700 high tech manufacturing jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Construction jobs hold steady

140
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
130
120 United States
Index: 1990Q1=100

110
100 Montgomery Co.
Maryland
90
80
70
60
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
1988Q1
1988Q4

1992Q3
1993Q2

1997Q1
1997Q4

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 28,700 construction jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Wholesale trade: slight decline

120
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)

110
United States
Index: 1990Q1=100

100
Maryland
90 Montgomery Co.
80

70

60
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
1988Q1
1988Q4

1992Q3
1993Q2

1997Q1
1997Q4

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 10,600 wholesale trade jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Retail trade drops 1%

130
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
125
120 United States
Index: 1990Q1=100

115
110
105 Maryland
100 Montgomery Co.
95
90
85
80
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
1988Q1
1988Q4

1992Q3
1993Q2

1997Q1
1997Q4

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 49,500 retail trade jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Business services unchanged

220
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
200
180
Index: 1990Q1=100

Maryland
160 Montgomery Co.
United States
140
120
100
80
1988Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2
1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 94,800 business services jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Health services follows US trend

160
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
150 Montgomery Co.
140 United States
Index: 1990Q1=100

130 Maryland
120
110
100
90
80
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3

1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
1988Q1

1993Q2
1994Q1

1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
There are 38,500 health services jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Engineering & management services

170
down 7.4%
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
160
150 United States
Index: 1990Q1=100

140
130 Maryland
120
110 Montgomery Co.
100
90
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2

1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
1988Q1
1988Q4

1992Q3
1993Q2

1997Q1
1997Q4

2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
There are 21,900 engineering & management services
jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Real estate jobs climb 3%

130
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)
United States
125
120
Index: 1988Q1=100

115
110
Maryland
105
Montgomery Co.
100
95
1988Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3

1993Q3

1995Q1
1995Q4
1996Q3
1997Q2
1998Q1
1998Q4
1999Q3

2001Q1

2002Q3
2003Q2
1990Q2

1994Q2

2000Q2

2001Q4
There are 11,700 real estate jobs in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

How well do the new jobs pay?

We track job growth by average salary to

show how well new jobs are paying:
• High: Industries with jobs that pay an
average of $50,000
• Medium: Industries with jobs that pay an
average of $30,000 to $49,999
• Low: Industries with jobs that pay an
average of less than $30,000
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Middle-wage industries
are adding more jobs
130 Middle: 2.1%
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2003Q2)
125
120 Low: 1.1%
Index: 1988Q1=100

115
110 High: -1.4%
105
100
95
90
85
80
There are 77,200 jobs in high-wage industries, 195,800 jobs in medium-wage
industries, and 133,000 jobs in low-wage industries in Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Regional statistics show

growth in second half of 2003
100
At-place employment (change from previous year)

80
Washington MSA
Montgomery Co.
60

40

20

2001 2002 2003

-20
Source: BLS, DLLR
-40
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Jobless rate back under 3%

4.5%
June 1992: 3.9%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
Jan 1988: 2.6%
1.0%
Jan 2003: 2.6%
0.5%
Source: MD DLLR
0.0%

There are 13,000 unemployed persons in Montgomery County.

M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

TCA caseload rises slightly

14,000
April 1995: 13,004
12,000

10,000

8,000
Jan 2004: 2,693
6,000
Jan 1986: 7,783
4,000

2,000
Source: MD DLLR
0
There are 2,693 recipients of temporary cash assistance in
Montgomery County.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Feder al Gover nment

Role
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The federal government is a

major component of
Montgomery County’s economy
As an employer,
– Almost 60,000 workers are in federal space,
– In FY2002, the federal government paid $3.3
billion in wages to jobs in Montgomery County
As a tenant,
– The General Services Administration leases
6.9 million square feet of commercial space in
the County,
As a purchaser of goods and services,
– FY02’s federal procurement was $4.7 billion
the County’s all-time high.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Worth $11.6 billion

• The federal government pumps billions
of dollars into the County’s economy.
$4.7 billion

$3.3 billion
$2.7 billion

FY2002 Procurement FY2002 Wages FY2002 Direct Payments

Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report

M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Workers in federally owned or

leased space now exceed
1994 levels
80,000
Workers
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 Leased
30,000 Installation
20,000
10,000
0
94
96
97
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
10
15
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by
Source: M-NCPPC analysis of 41 percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space
US government data are expected to fluctuate between 21,900 and 26,500.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Federal leasing reaches 6.9

million sq. ft.
8,000,000
Square feet
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1984 1989 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004

Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and

Source: General Services 6.9 million square feet of commercial space in
Administration (GSA) Montgomery County
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Health & Human Services

leases the most space
Other
11%
Health &
Nuclear Human
Services
Regulatory
67%
Commission
5%

Dept. of
Commerce
17%

HHS & Commerce account for 84 percent of

Source: General Services the County’s federal leased space, 5.7 million
Administration (GSA) sq. ft. out of a total of 6.9 million sq. ft.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Rockville area home to most

federal leased space
Other
Gaithersburg 4%
6%

Bethesda
15%
Rockville
57%

Silver Spring
18%
GSA leases 3.9 mil. sq. ft. in Rockville
(which includes most of North Bethesda),
Source: General Services 1.3 mil. sq. ft. in Silver Spring, and 1.1 mil.
Administration (GSA) sq. ft. in Bethesda.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Leases for 2.1 million sq. ft. up

for renewal in 2004-2005
1,800,000
sq. ft. of leased space by lease expiration year
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: General Services 30 percent of GSA’s leased space in Montgomery

Administration (GSA) County is renewable in the next 2 years (2004-2005)
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Where Is the County’s

Office Market Headed?
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The real estate cycle provides a

framework for understanding
2001 Oversupply
Expansion 1988
(Phase 3)
(Phase 2)
2000
Net Absorption

1980,1997 2002

1991

1994 2003
Recovery Recession 2004
(Phase 1) (Phase 4)

Time
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The Washington, DC Region

Class A Office Market
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The region’s vacant Class A

office space climbs
25,000,000
1st quarter data, in square feet

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical

Search, Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Much of region’s vacant Class A

office space is in Northern Virginia
25,000,000 Square feet

20,000,000

15,000,000 13,380,732 Northern Virginia

13,828,994

10,000,000
4,741,295 Suburban Maryland
5,000,000 4,138,048

3,609,372 4,350,878 Washington, DC

0
1st Qtr 2003 1st Qtr 2004

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,

Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

First quarter 2004 exhibits slowing

of Class A office space absorption
3,000,000
1st quarter Class A office space
2,500,000 MD absorption, in square feet

2,000,000

1,500,000 VA MD
VA

1,000,000 VA
MD
500,000 DC MD
DC DC VA
DC DC
0 MD VA
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-500,000

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical

Search, Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

DC asking rents increases,

bucking regional trend
$50
Average asking price for Class A office space – first quarter
$45
Washington, DC: $44
$40
$35 Regional average: $30
$30 Northern Virginia: $26
$25
Suburban Maryland: $26
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,
Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The Montgomery County

Office Market
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

County’s Class A office space

rents steady compared to Fairfax
$35
Montgomery County: $29
$30
$25
Fairfax County: $25
$20
$15
$10
$5
Average rent for Class A office space – first quarter
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical

Search, Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

About 100,000 sf of Class A space

absorbed in 1st quarter 2004
800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004
-200,000

Montgomery County net class A office space absorption, in square feet

-400,000

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,

Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Total Class A space grows, as does

vacant & occupied.
35,000,000
991,043
1,111,775 Sublet vacant
30,000,000 1,022,121 3,487,113
2,945,088
Direct vacant
2,676,965
25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000 Occupied
27,339,607 28,204,536
25,728,802
10,000,000

5,000,000

0
2002 2003 2004

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,

Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Vacancy rates return to 1995 levels;

Class C space has lowest rate
18.0%
All types
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,

Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Improving sublet vacancy rates

indicates recovery
4.0%

3.5%
Recovery?
3.0%
Recession
Vacancy Rate

2.5%

2.0%
Oversupply
1.5%

1.0%

0.5%
Recovery Expansion

0.0%
Sep-95

Sep-96

Sep-97

Sep-98

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03
Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03
Mar-95

Mar-04
Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,
Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Just over 1 million square feet under

construction now
6
Montgomery County office space completed per year
in millions of square feet
5

4
2004: Under construction
2005: Proposed for completion
3

0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Completions: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center; under construction and
proposed: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Discovery leads major Montgomery County

Class A Office completions in 2003
Project Square Ft. Submarket

Discovery Communications 600,000 Silver Spring

Human Genome Sciences 481,871 Germantown
MedImmune Headquarters 210,000 Gaithersburg
Twinbrook Metro Station 185,516 Rockville
Redland Center 142,500 North Rockville
Metro Executive Park 79,000 North Rockville
Campus @ Holy Cross 65,000 Kensington/Wheaton
Palisades of Bethesda 33,000 Bethesda/Chevy Chase

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database,

Property Search
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

I-270 sees several office projects

under construction in 2004
Development Square Ft. Submarket Expected
Delivery
Research Office Park 30,000 I-270 Corridor March 2004
Wood Glen Park 66,000 Potomac March 2004
Sandy Spring Phase I 30,000 I-270 Corridor June 2004
1405 Research Blvd. 75,999 I-270 Corridor June 2004
Washington Center 151,230 I-270 Corridor June 2004
Shady Grove Life Sciences 115,691 I-270 Corridor July 2004
Market Sq. @ Shady Grove 228,020 I-270 Corridor July 2004
8515 Georgia Avenue 183,000 Silver Spring August 2004
Chevy Chase Center 151,230 Bethesda/ May 2006
Chevy Chase

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Property

Search
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

2 major Class A office projects

proposed for 2005 in Rock Spring Park
Development Square Ft. Submarket

Belward II 54,000 I-270 Corridor

Sandy Spring Plaza Phase 2 125,000 Rockville
Rock Spring Park 217,700 Bethesda/Chevy
Chase
Rock Spring Center I 300,000 Bethesda/Chevy
Chase
FallsGrove Research Center 350,000 I-270 Corridor

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Property Search

M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Flex space: vacancy rates and

rents edge higher
11.0% Vacancy rates Rents $16.00
$14.00
9.0%
$12.00
7.0%
$10.00
5.0% $8.00
$6.00
3.0%
$4.00
1.0%
$2.00
-1.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 $0.00

Source: CoStar Group, Property Professional Database, Analytical Search,

Historical Trends
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Residential Market
Indicators Are Strong
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Number of housing sales

continues upward trend
Number of housing sales 16,534
15,489 15,372
14,723 14,779
13,088

10,357
9,403

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: MRIS
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Most single-family homes now

cost over $300,000
$350,000
Median price of single-family home
$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000
1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1995

1996

2000

2001

2002
1993

1994

1997

1998

1999

2003
Source: M-NCPPC Research &
Technology Center
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Housing units continue

to sell quickly
Days on the market
111

55
45
29 26 27

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Sources: MRIS, COG

M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Housing is less affordable

Low interest rates help, but price hikes dominate.

1.2
Affordability index for existing Montgomery County homes
1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20
19

19

20 The higher the score, the more affordable the

Source: M-NCPPC Research & housing is. A score of 1 means the monthly
Technology Center cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

The median income household can

afford the median priced townhouse
1.8
Affordability index Existing Townhouse
1.6
1.4
1.2 New Townhouse
1
0.8
Existing Single Family
0.6
0.4 New Single Family
0.2
0
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19
19

19

20

20

20

20
The higher the score, the more affordable the
Source: M-NCPPC Research & housing is. A score of 1 means the monthly
Technology Center cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

2003 brings marked increase

in most home prices
$600,000 New Single Family
Median Prices
$500,000
Existing Single Family
$400,000

$300,000 New Townhouse

$200,000
Existing Townhouse
$100,000

$0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: M-NCPPC Research &
Technology Center
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Mortgage rates continue to fall

30 year fixed effective mortgage interest rate
12.0%

10.0%
Trend
8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2001

2002

2003
1993

1999

2000
Source: Federal Home Loan
Bank Board.
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Apartment market still tight with

vacancy rates steady at 3.8%
5% Vacancy rate
4.4% 4.2%
3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
4%
3.0%
3% 2.5%
1.8%
2%

1%

0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Montgomery County Office of

Landlord-Tenant Affairs
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Rents continue upward trend

Monthly rent, in dollars
$1,200 $1,111
$1,076
$1,030
$928
$871
$900
$726

$600

$300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Turnover rents (Unsubsidized)

Source: Montgomery County Office of

Landlord-Tenant Affairs
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Multi-family units are a larger

share of home construction
8,500
7,500 Housing completions, in units.

6,500
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500 Single-Family Detached
1,500
Townhouse
500 Multi-family

-500
1988
1989
1990

2001
2002
2003
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source; M-NCPPC Research & Housing completions totaled
Technology Center almost 5,500 units for both 2002 and 2003
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

Major 2003 completions include:

• Avalon at Grosvenor Station 497

• King Farm 491
• Traville East Village 430
• Kings Crossing 250
• Fallsgrove 223
• Clarksburg Town Center 202
• Lakelands 175

Source; M-NCPPC Research & In units

Technology Center
M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

In 2003, multi-family approvals

outnumbered single-family units 4-1
Single-family:
1,192 units

Multi-family:
4,871 units

Subdivision approvals in 2003 by units. Source; M-NCPPC

Research & Technology Center