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Modeling Climate: What Is Climate and Why Do We Model It?

Climate models are systems of equations that simulate physical processes like atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, and air-sea interactions on a 3D grid over time. They are essential tools for understanding past, present and future climate variability and change from natural and human factors. Models are improving with more accurate representations of processes and higher resolution, though limitations remain. Research aims to better understand phenomena like El Nino, greenhouse warming, air pollution transport, paleoclimates, hurricanes and monsoons through modeling.

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Vivek Singh
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
169 views3 pages

Modeling Climate: What Is Climate and Why Do We Model It?

Climate models are systems of equations that simulate physical processes like atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, and air-sea interactions on a 3D grid over time. They are essential tools for understanding past, present and future climate variability and change from natural and human factors. Models are improving with more accurate representations of processes and higher resolution, though limitations remain. Research aims to better understand phenomena like El Nino, greenhouse warming, air pollution transport, paleoclimates, hurricanes and monsoons through modeling.

Uploaded by

Vivek Singh
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Modeling Climate

skiptocontent programnavigation

CLIM ATE

OCEANS,GREATLAKESandCOASTS

WEATHERandAIRQUALITY

SEARCH| SITEM AP

NEWS ABOUTUS RESEARCHPROGRAM S EDUCATION CONSTITUENTAFFAIRS HOM E

Learnmoreabout theseCLIMATE RESEARCHareas...


GLOBALCARBONCYCLE GREENHOUSEGASESand AEROSOLS M ODELINGCLIM ATE OBSERVINGCLIM ATE VARIABILITYandCHANGE PREDICTINGCLIM ATE VARIABILITYand EXTREM EEVENTS ELNIOandLANIA THEOZONELAYER ARCTICRESEARCH PALEOCLIM ATOLOGY REGIONALCLIM ATE SERVICES

ModelingClimate
Whatisclimateandwhydowemodelit?
Climatereferstotheaverageofw eatherconditions.Itvariesontimescales rangingfromseasonaltocentennial.Fluctuationsresultnaturallyfrom interactionsbetw eentheocean,theatmosphere,theland,cryosphere(frozen portionoftheEarth'ssurface),andchangesintheEarth'senergybalance resultingfromvolcaniceruptionsandvariationsinthesun'sintensity.Sincethe IndustrialRevolutionsignificantchangesinradiativeforcing(Earth'sheatenergy balance)haveresultedfromthebuildupofgreenhousegasesandtrace constituents.Theimpactsontheplanetoftheseanthropogenicallyinducedor manmadechangestotheenergybudgethavebeendetectedandareprojected tobecomeincreasinglymoreimportantduringthenextcentury. Computermodelsofthecoupledatmospherelandsurfaceoceanseaice systemareessentialscientifictoolsforunderstandingandpredictingnaturaland humancausedchangesinEarth'sclimate.

Howdowemodelclimate?
Climatemodelsaresystemsofdifferentialequationsderivedfromthebasiclaw s ofphysics,fluidmotion,andchemistryformulatedtobesolvedonsupercomputers. Forthesolutiontheplanetiscoveredbya3dimensionalgrid

Figure1:ClimateVariability: HovmoellerModel. Anewglobalcoupledclimate modelcanpredictseasonalto interannualvariabilityoverthe Pacific.Observationsareonthe left,andpredictionswiththe coupledmodelareontheright.

Figure2:SeaIceThickness(10 yearaverage) SeaIcethickness(in centimeters)overtheArctic.A modelprojectionofthepackice forthe2050s(right)showsa substantialdecreaseinseaice thicknessoverpresentera(left).

tow hichthebasicequationsareappliedandevaluated.Ateachgridpoint,e.g. fortheatmosphere,themotionoftheair(w inds),heattransfer (thermodynamics),radiation(solarandterrestrial),moisturecontent(relative humidity)andsurfacehydrology(precipitation,evaporation,snow meltand runoff)arecalculatedasw ellastheinteractionsoftheseprocessesamong neighboringpoints.Thecomputationsaresteppedforw ardintimefromseasons tocenturiesdependingonthestudy. Stateoftheartclimatemodelsnow includeinteractiverepresentationsofthe ocean,theatmosphere,theland,hydrologicandcryosphericprocesses,

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Modeling Climate ocean,theatmosphere,theland,hydrologicandcryosphericprocesses, terrestrialandoceaniccarboncycles,andatmosphericchemistry.


Theaccuracyofclimatemodelsislimitedbygridresolutionandourabilityto describethecomplicatedatmospheric,oceanic,andchemicalprocesses mathematically.MuchoftheresearchinOARisdirectedatimprovingthe representationoftheseprocesses.Despitesomeimperfections,modelssimulate remarkablyw ellcurrentclimateanditsvariability.Morecapablesupercomputers enablesignificantmodelimprovementsbyallow ingformoreaccurate representationofcurrentlyunresolvedphysics.

Figure3:MaximumOzone Concentrationnearthesurface producedbyAsianPollution

Phenomenaofinterest
ClimateVariability
Modelsareanessentialtoolforunderstandingcurrent climate,e.g.theannualcycle,ElNio,andotherformsof naturalvariability.Improvedunderstandingandbetter modelstranslatedirectlyintobetteroperationalseasonal forecastingattheClimatePredictionCenteroftheNational WeatherServiceandtheInternationalResearchInstitute forClimatePrediction.HovmoellerModel(Figure1)
Figure4:SimulationofIceAge Climate Climatemodelscansimulate temperaturechangesnotonly overthelastcenturybutalsofor climateduringanIceAge.

GreenhouseWarming
Climatemodelsaretheonlymeanstoestimatetheeffects ofincreasinggreenhousegasesonfutureglobalclimate. TheAdministration'sclimateprogramwillusemodel studiestoexaminetheimpactsoftechnologicalmitigation scenariosonreducingtheimpactsofclimatechange.Sea

Figure5a:OceanCirculation Surfaceoceancurrentsina modeloftheoceancirculationin thesouthernhemisphere.High horizontalresolution(1/6degree, right)simulatesoceaneddies morerealisticallythanlow resolution(1degree,left). FLCanimation(63Mb)

IceThickness(Figure2) AtmosphericChemistry
Modelsarebeingusedtoinvestigatetheatmospheric circulationandassociatedchemicalinteractionswhich resultinglobalwarmingandairpollution.Forexample, recentresearchwithgeneralcirculationmodelshasshown thatpollutionproducedoverAsiacanbetransported acrossthePacificintoNorthAmerica.MaximumAsian

ImpactOnOzone(Figure3) Paleoclimates
Acredibilitytestformodelsistheirabilitytosimulatepast climaticperiods,e.g.CretaceousandtheLastGlacial Maximumwhichrepresentabnormallywarmandcold climatesrespectively.Modelsarealsoruntosimulatethe effectsofrecentvolcaniceruptionstotestatmospheric chemistrycirculationinteractions.Volcaniceruptionsarea significantfactorincurrentandpastclimatevariability.

Figure5b:Eddies Eddieshaveaprofoundeffecton oceanmixingprocesses.Models hereatGFDLhaveimproved modelresolutiontoresolve smallereddies,whichprevious modelscouldnotdo. AVIAnimation(29Mb)

ClimateModelProjection(Figure4) OceanCirculation
Oceanicmodelsareusedforinvestigationsintothe dynamicsofthelargescaleoceangeneralcirculationin ordertogainafundamentalunderstandingoftheocean's roleintheearth'sclimatesystem,globalbiogeochemical cyclesandecosystemdynamics.OceanCirculation (Figure5a)andSurfaceHeight(Eddies)(Figure5b)

ClimateandExtremeEvents
Highresolutionmodelsarebeingusedtoinvestigate

Figure6a:GlobalMesoscale CirculationatGFDL Simulationofweathersystemsin aglobalmodelwithexplicit convectionandahorizontal

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Highresolutionmodelsarebeingusedtoinvestigate mesoscalestorms(Figure6a),thelinksbetweenthese andmeanstormtracks,hurricanes(Figure6b)andthe impactsofclimateonthese.Thesamehurricanemodel usedatGFDLforclimatestudiesisbeingutilizedbythe NWSandtheNavyforoperationalhurricaneforecasting.

Modeling Climate

convectionandahorizontal resolutionof1012km.

Figure6b:Hurricane Hurricanemodelimbedded withinaglobalforecastmodel.In aclimatewithenhancedCO2 emissions,elevated temperaturesandhumidity provideadditionalenergyfor stormstostrengthen.Wind speedsincreasebyabout10% inthestrongeststorms,and thereisuptoa28%increasein nearstormrainfall.

NOAAResearchprogramsthatUtilizeorSupportClimateModeling
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory(GFDL) ClimateProgramOffice(CPO) EarthSystemResearchLaboratory(ESRL)
NEXTObservingClimateVariabilityandChange

UpdatedMarch7,2011

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