Engineering Simulation for Military Technology October 24-26 2011, Washington DC

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

Mikel D. Petty, Ph.D. Center for Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis University of Alabama in Huntsville

Center for Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

Presentation outline Motivation and definitions Methodologies and tools Challenges from modeling and simulation Summary

A Simulationists Perspective on the Use of Models in Model-Based Systems Engineering

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

Motivation and definitions

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

Models in engineering
hs = T c P dt = c P (T2 T1 )
1

T2

Mathematical model ~1895 Enthalpy or total heat of superheated steam [1]

Physical model ~1942 Wind tunnel model for P-51 Mustang

Whats new? Complexity, scope, pervasiveness of models Dependence of process on models

[1] R. T. Kent, Kents Mechanical Engineers Handbook: Power, Eleventh Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York NY, 1937.

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

MBSE defined?
Systems Engineering [2] Model-Based Engineering [3]

Model-Based Systems Engineering [4]

Model-Oriented Systems Engineering Science [5]

Model-based systems engineering (MBSE) is the formalized application of modeling to support system requirements, design, analysis, verification and validation activities beginning in the conceptual design phase and continuing throughout development and later life cycle phases. [6]
[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] B. S. Blanchard and W. J. Fabrycky, Systems Engineering and Analysis, Third Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River NJ, 1998. NDIA, Final Report of the Model Based Engineering (MBE) Subcommittee, NDIA Systems Engineering Division, M&S Committee, 2011. A. W. Wymore, Model-Based Systems Engineering, CRC Press, Boca Raton FL, 1993. D. W. Hybertson, Model-Oriented Systems Engineering Science, CRC Press, Boca Raton FL, 2009. INCOSE, Systems Engineering Vision 2020, INCOSE-TP-2004-004-02, Version 2.03, 2007.

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

MBSE Vee
Prediction Requirements Engineering System Design Subsystem Design Component Design Conceptual Models High Level System Models Detailed Technical Models Component Models Validation Conceptual Models High Level System Models Detailed Technical Models Component Models Acceptance Test System Test Integration Test Unit Test

Component Development

Adapted from [3]

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

Methodologies and tools [7]

[7] J. A. Estefan, Survey of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Methodologies, INCOSE-TD-2007-003-02, Revision B, 2008.

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

IBM Telelogic Harmony-SE

Description
Systems and software engineering process Process similar to vee Repositories for requirements, models, test data OMG SysML models Telelogic Rhapsody development environment Telelogic Tau UML and SysML modeling tool

Models and tools

Simulation Based Approaches for Systems Engineering

INCOSE Object-Oriented Systems Engineering Method

Description
Top-down, model-driven process Combines object-oriented concepts and classic SE process activities OMG SysML models COTS SysML editors

Models and tools

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IBM Rational Unified Process for Systems Engineering

Description
Process framework RUP SE (systems) adapted for RUP (software) Model viewpoints and levels define views OMG UML and SysML models SE process framework tool as RUP SE plug in to Rational Method Composer

Models and tools

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Vitech Model-Based System Engineering Methodology

Description
Based on four conventional SE activities Textual System Design Language expresses artifacts Incremental SE process onion model Graphical system model diagrams Integrated Vitech CORE tool set

Models and tools

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JPL State Analysis

Description
System models describe system states over time State: all system aspects of interest Iterative process of state discovery and modeling State database, relational with SQL

Models and tools

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Dori Object-Process Methodology

Description
System function expressed with simple visual models Basic concepts: object, process, state Constrained natural language descriptions Object-Process Diagrams Object-Process Language OPCAT tool set

Models and tools

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Challenges from modeling and simulation: Complex systems

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Complex systems
A system comprised of a (usually large) number of (usually strongly) interacting entities, processes, or agents, the understanding of which requires the development, or the use of, new scientific tools, nonlinear models, out-of equilibrium descriptions and computer simulations. [8] A complex system is one whose evolution is very sensitive to initial conditions or to small perturbations, one in which the number of independent interacting components is large, or one in which there are multiple pathways by which the system can evolve. [9]
Stock market

Air traffic

[8] Advances in Complex Systems, http://www.worldscinet.com/acs/ [9] G. M. Whitesides and R. F. Ismagilov, Complexity in Chemistry,Science, April 2 1999, Vol. 284 No. 5411, pp. 89-92.

Weather

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Characteristics and challenges Defining characteristics

Sensitivity to initial conditions Emergent behavior Composition of components Uncertain boundaries Nesting State memory Non-linear Feedback loops

Challenges
Complex systems difficult to model Models of complex systems difficult to validate

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Sensitivity to initial conditions

System state x Predicted value of system state over time

Wide range of predicted states

Initial state x0 Time t Initial time t0 Prediction time t1

Complex systems evolution highly sensitive to initial state. Small differences in state become magnified over time. [10]

[10] L. Smith, Chaos: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford England, 2007.

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Sensitivity to initial conditions

Challenges Implementation side effects Sensitivity consistency Input data precision Mitigation Ensemble forecasting [10]

Modeling

Increased trials Broad results distributions [11] Validation Sensitivity analysis [12] Input data precision Precision compensation

Distributions

[11] C. H. Brase and C. P. Brase, Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods, Houghton Mifflin, Boston MA, 2009. [12] O. Balci, Verification, Validation, and Testing, in J. Banks (Ed.), Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice, John Wiley & Sons, New York NY, 1998, pp. 335-393.

Ensemble forecasting

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Emergent behavior

Behavior not explicitly encoded in agents or components emerges from interaction of agents or components with each other and environment. [13]
[13] G. Williams, Chaos Theory Tamed, Joseph Henry Press, Washington DC, 1997.

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Emergent behavior
Challenges Incomplete observation Indirect representation Overabstraction Face validation unreliability Test case design Mitigation Increased observation Explicit modeling focus

Modeling

Validation

Structured face validation [14] Scenario space search

x2

x1

[14] G. Rowe and G. Wright, Expert Opinions in Forecasting: Role of the Delphi Technique, in J. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer, Boston MA, 2001.

Scenario space search

Face validation unreliability

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Composition of components

Complex systems composed of interacting components. Models of complex systems composed of submodels.

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Composition of components
Challenges Interface compliance Architecture selection [15] Model correlation [16] Mitigation Interface analysis [17] Conceptual model comparison Known problems [18]

Modeling

Validation

Weakest link validity Uncertainty estimation [20] Error location Multivariate statistics [21] Statistical method unsuitability Composition validation Validity under composition [19]

[15] M. Shaw and D. Garlan, Software Architecture, Perspectives on an Emerging Discipline, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River NJ, 1996. [16] M. Spiegel, P. F. Reynolds, D. C. Brogan, A Case Study of Model Context for Simulation Composability and Reusability, Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, Orlando FL, December 4-7 2005, pp. 437-444. [17] O. Balci, Verification, Validation, and Testing, in J. Banks (Ed.), Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice, John Wiley & Sons, New York NY, 1998, pp. 335-393. [18] D. Gross and W. V. Tucker, A Foundation for Semantic Interoperability, Proceedings of the Fall 2007 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando FL, September 16-21 2007. [19] E. W. Weisel, R. R. Mielke, and M. D. Petty, Validity of Models and Classes of Models in Semantic Composability, Proceedings of the Fall 2003 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando FL, September 14-19 2003, pp. 526-536. [20] W. L. Oberkampf, S. M. DeLand, B. M. Rutherford, K. V. Diegart, and K. F. Alvin, Estimation of Total Uncertainty in Modeling and Simulation, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2000-0824, April 2000. [21] O. Balci and R. Sargent, Validation of simulation models via simultaneous confidence intervals, American Journal of Mathematical and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3-4, 1984, pp. 375-406.

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Challenges from modeling and simulation: Model composition

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Composability
Composability. The capability to select and assemble simulation components in various combinations into simulation systems to satisfy specific user requirements. [22]
Component Repository Simulation A

1 1 2 2 3 3

Simulation B

1 1 3 3 52 52

3 3 8 8 22 22 N N

...
N N

[22] M. D. Petty and E. W. Weisel, A Composability Lexicon, Proceedings of the Spring 2003 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando FL, March 30-April 4 2003, pp. 181-187.

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Syntactic and semantic composability

Syntactic composability The components fit together.

Semantic composability The components fit together in a meaningful way.

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Validity under composition

[23]

Compositions of valid models considered for classes of models and validity relations Classes of models
Linear Affine Algebraic Elementary Computable

Classes of validity relations

Equivalence Step metric Trajectory metric
[23] E. W. Weisel, R. R. Mielke, and M. D. Petty, Validity of Models and Classes of Models in Semantic Composability, Proceedings of the Fall 2003 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando FL, September 14-19 2003, pp. 526-536.

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Given two models, separately valid under some validity relation, is their composition necessarily valid under the same validity relation?
Validity relation
Equivalence Step metric Trajectory metric

Model
Linear Yes Affine Yes Algebraic Yes Elementary Computable Yes Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Conditional Conditional

No

No

No

Most useful models here

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NP-completeness theory, in a nutshell

Classes of problems P: solvable in polynomial time NP: not solvable in polynomial time? NP-complete: as hard as every NP problem To prove a problem is NP-complete, show that solving it solves a known NP-complete problem NP-complete problems computationally intractable
P A B C D NP V ? NP-complete U S T

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Selecting models to compose is NP-complete

Variants of Component Selection Bounded Unbounded Nonemergent
[24]

Emergent

Antiemergent

NP-complete NP-complete NP-complete NP-hard NP-hard General Component Selection NP-hard, NP-complete with oracle [25] NP-hard

[24] E. H. Page and J. M. Opper, Observations on the Complexity of Composable Simulation, Proceedings of the 1999 Winter Simulation Conference, Phoenix AZ, December 5-8 1999, pp. 553-560. [25] M. D. Petty, E. W. Weisel, and R. R. Mielke, Computational Complexity of Selecting Models for Composition, Proceedings of the Fall 2003 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando FL, September 14-19 2003, pp. 517-525.

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Summary

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Summary Systems engineering depends on models MBSE methodologies and tools Challenges from M&S may impact MBSE
Models have always been used in engineering MBSE is applied modeling

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End notes More information

Mikel D. Petty, Ph.D. UAHuntsville Center for Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis 256-824-4368, [email protected]

Slides: http://cmsa.uah.edu/?downloads Questions?

Center for Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis