Probability Examples

Example 1. Table below shows the clinical trials of pregnancy. Positive Test Result Subject Pregnant Not Pregnant (Pregnancy is indicated) 80 3 Negative Test Result (Pregnancy is not indicated) 5 11

Assuming that one person is randomly selected. Find the probability of selecting a subject who is pregnant or had a positive test result. [8/9]

Example 2. An electronic company manufactures computers, televisions, CD players, and others electronics products. When shipped items are damaged, the causes of the damage are categorized as water (W), crushing (C), puncture (P), or carton marking (M). Listed below are the coded causes of five damaged items. A quality control analyst wants to randomly select two items for further investigation. Find the probability that the first selected item was damaged from crushing (C) and the second item was also damaged crushing (C). Assume that the selections are made (a) with replacement; (b) without replacement. W [(a) 4/25; (b) 1/10] C C P M

Example 3. Five persons A, B, C, D and E shoot an object, respectively, with the probabilities 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5, 1/6. If they shoot at the same time, what is the probability that the object is shot at least once? [5/6]

Example 4. There are four person go fishing. They are allowed to fish for one hour only. Each person does not allow catching more than one fish. The probability of each person catch one fish is 2/3. If they are fishing together, what is the probability of those catch (a) (b) (c) (d) exactly 2 fishes? exactly 3 fishes? 2 or 3 fishes? at least 2 fishes?

[(a) 8/27; (b) 32/81; (c) 56/81; (d) 8/9]

Probability Examples

Example 5. Record below shows that a driver involves in an accident in a city. Rain, R Accident, A No Accident, A Total 0.03 0.33 0.36 No Rain, R 0.02 0.62 0.64 Total 0.05 0.95 1.00

From the table above, answer the questions below. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) What is the probability of an accident occur? What is the probability that an accident occur in raining day? What is the probability of the raining day? What is the probability of an accident occur given that the day is raining? What is the probability of no rain? What is the probability of an accident occur in the day that no rain? What is the probability that an accident occur given that no rain at the time?

[(a) 0.05; (b) 0.03; (c) 0.36; (d) 0.083; (e) 0.64; (f) 0.02; (g) 0.0313]

Example 6. An automatic machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables. Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because of the variation in the size of the beans and other vegetables, a package might be underweight or overweight. A check of 4000 packages filled in the past month revealed below. Number of Weight Underweight Satisfactory Overweight Event A B C Packages 100 3600 300 4000 Probability of Occurrence 0.025 0.900 0.075 1.000

(a)

What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight? [0.10]

(b)

Show the probability of a satisfactory bag is 0.9 using a Venn diagram.

Probability Examples

Example 7. A sample of 200 tourists who visited the state during the year is selected by the Florida Tourist Commission. The survey revealed that 120 tourists went to Disney World and 100 went to Busch Gardens near Tampa. There are 60 tourists visited both attractions. What is the probability that a person selected visited either Disney World or Busch Gardens? [0.80]

Example 8. A survey by an association revealed 60% of its members made airline reservations last year. Two members are selected randomly. What is the probability both made airline reservation last year? [0.36]

Example 9. A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the others are blue. He gets dressed in the dark, so he just grabs a shirt and puts it on. He plays golf two days in a row and does not do laundry. What is the likelihood both shirts selected are white? [0.55]

Example 10. A sample of executives was survey about loyalty to their company. One of the questions was If you were given an offer by another company equal to or slightly better than your present position, would you remain with the company or take the other position? The responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified with their length of service with the company as shown in the table below. Length of Service Less than Loyalty Would remain Would not remain 1 year 10 25 35 (a) 15 years 30 15 45 6 10 years 5 10 15 More than 10 years 75 30 105 Total 120 80 200

What is the probability of randomly selecting an executive who is loyal to the company (would remain) and who has more than 10 years of service?

(b)

What is the probability of randomly selecting an executive who would remain with the company or has less than 1 year of experience?

[(a) 0.375; (b) 0.725]

Probability Examples

Example 11. Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding? [0.111]

Example 12. John flies frequently and likes to upgrade his seat to first class. He has determined that, if he checks in for his flight at least two hours early, the probability that he will get the upgrade is 0.75; otherwise, the probability that he will get the upgrade is 0.35. With his busy schedule, he checks in at least two hours before his flight only 40% of the time. (a) What is the probability that, for a randomly selected trip, John will be able to upgrade to first class? (b) Suppose John didnt receive an upgrade on his most recent attempt. What is the probability that he arrived late? [(a) 0.51; (b) 0.8]

Example 13. A diagnostic test of a certain disease has 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity. Only 1% of the population has the disease in question. If the diagnostic test reports that a person chosen at random from the population tests positive, what is the conditional probability that the person does, in fact, have the disease? [0.16]

Example 14. A bag contains 1 white and 6 red balls, and a second bag contains 4 white and 3 red balls. One of the bags is picked up at random and a ball is randomly drawn from it, and is found to be white in colour. Find the probability that the drawn ball was from the first bag. [1/5]

Example 15. Bag 1 contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag 2 contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag 2. [35/68]