The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil
The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil
The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil
April 2007
In the summer of 2002, after the Russian govern- usurpers initiated disastrous reforms. At least 80
ment introduced the flat income tax, completed percent of Russians are convinced of this flawed
fiscal reforms, created the Stabilization Fund, and interpretation of history.
introduced land reform in Russia, I had a premo- Historically, such myths have a dangerous
nition that the window of opportunity for further precedent—namely, Germany between World
reforms would be closing for a number of years. I War I and World War II. Then, the legend went
was correct in my prediction. that Germany was never defeated in the war, but
As a result, I decided to turn to more academic “stabbed in the back” by the Jews and the Social-
pursuits. The title of my latest book, which I would ists. To some degree, the responsible party was the
like to discuss today, can be translated as The Col- democratic German government, as it was unpre-
lapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia.1 It pared to publish materials about what really hap-
relates the story of the last few years of the Soviet pened before and after World War I.
Union. But when I wrote about the collapse of the Similarly, access to documents about the
Soviet Union, I also had in mind dilemmas of con- Soviet collapse is becoming increasingly restricted,
temporary Russia. but we were still able to make public a number of
There were several factors which pushed me to them that can properly explain what happened to
write this book. The first was the rise in oil prices, our country.
which in real terms have started to approach the To be frank, I never thought that the book—
level of the late Brezhnev period. The second was half of which is tables, graphs, or official materials
the disturbing tendency to mythologize the late of the Soviet government—could be a bestseller
Soviet period in current Russian society and in my country. Yet it is, a fact which provides a
popular culture. These myths include the belief glimmer of hope.
that, despite its problems, the Soviet Union was a
dynamically developing world superpower until The Story of Grain
Research assistant Igor Khrestin compiled this text
from the transcript and the video recording of the In a simplified way, the story of the collapse of
lecture delivered by Yegor Gaidar at AEI on Novem- the Soviet Union could be told as a story about
ber 13, 2006, and translated the conclusion of this
article from Russian. The text was edited by resident grain and oil. As for the grain, the turning point
scholar Leon Aron and augmented by Mr. Gaidar. that decided the fate of the Soviet Union began
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org
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FIGURE 1 the collection of grain. Mean-
COMPARISON BETWEEN USSR IN 1930 AND CHINA IN 1980, while, we are experiencing
BY GDP PER CAPITA AND BY LEVEL OF URBANIZATION a radical increase of urban popu-
lation. How can we resolve this
1600 problem?”
1400
20 Once again, a serious discus-
Urban population, %
sion ensued among Soviet leaders
GDP per capita, $*
1200
15 in the early 1950s, resulting in
1000
two positions. The first position
800
10 was to attempt to improve the
600 situation in the agricultural
400 5 regions outside of the fertile
200 “black soil belt” in southern Rus-
0 0 sia. The other position was to
USSR, 1930 China, 1980 USSR, 1930 China, 1980 resolve the problem by utilizing
the socialist planning system:
NOTES: All figures are taken in part from Yegor Gaidar, Gibel’ imperii: Uroki dlya sovremennoi Rossii [The large projects and a concentration
Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia] (Moscow: Rossiyskaya Politicheskaya Entsiklopedia, of resources. Naturally, doubts lin-
2006), and presented at a lecture by Gaidar at the American Enterprise Institute on November 13, 2006.
More information and all figures can be located in full at www.aei.org/event1420/. gered about whether this strategy
* In international dollars of 1990 (Geary-Khamis dollars) would cause even higher fluctua-
tions in long-term production.
with the economic debate of 1928–29, when the dis- But these considerations were ignored and, tacti-
cussion centered on what would later be called the cally, the strategy of dramatically expanding the land
“Chinese path” of development. (By several important under cultivation yielded temporary success. Between
economic and social indicators, the Soviet Union of the mid-1950s and the early 1960s, the amount of the
that period and China in the late 1970s took similar grain produced by the Soviet Union increased signifi-
approaches to reform. See figure 1.) At the time, the cantly. The problem was the limited amount of suitable
head of the Soviet government, Aleksei Rykov, and land and the continuing growth of the population in
the chief ideologist of the Communist Party, Nikolai large cities. Thus, already in the late 1960s, the short-
Bukharin, earnestly defended the idea of a path which comings of this plan were evident.
included preserving private agriculture and the market, In 1963, Nikita Khrushchev sent a letter to the leaders
and ensuring financial stability—but holding onto the of the Socialist bloc, informing them that the Soviet
party’s political control. Union would no longer be able to supply them with grain.
The Soviet leadership ultimately chose another path. That year, the Soviet state bought 12 million tons of
The solution preferred by Joseph Stalin was the expropria- grain—and spent one third of the country’s gold reserves
tion of peasants’ property, forced collectivization, and to do so. Khrushchev commented: “Soviet power cannot
extraction of grain. Judging from the available documents, tolerate any more the shame that we had to endure.”2
the essence of this decision was relatively simple. Bukharin Therefore, in the 1960s, state production of grain sta-
and Rykov essentially told Stalin: “In a peasant country, it bilized and, regardless of attempts by the Soviet leader-
is impossible to extract grain by force. There will be civil ship, remained fixed at 65 million tons per year until the
war.” Stalin answered, “I will do it nonetheless.” late 1980s (see figure 2). The cities, however, continued
The result of the disastrous agriculture policy imple- to grow. What policy could succeed if a country had no
mented between the late 1920s and the early 1950s was increase in grain production and an 80 million–person
the sharpest fall of productivity experienced by a major increase in its urban population?
country in the twentieth century. The key problem The picture was bleak. Russia, which before World
confronting the Soviet Union was well-expressed in War I was the biggest grain exporter—significantly larger
the letter sent by Nikita Khrushchev to his colleagues than the United States and Canada—started to be the
in the leadership of the party. The letter fundamentally biggest world importer of grain, more so than Japan and
stated: “In the last fifteen years, we have not increased China combined.
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FIGURE 2 clearly at another meeting of the Soviet
PROCUREMENT OF GRAIN IN THE USSR leadership: “No one will take our machin-
ery production. That is why we are export-
70 ing mainly raw materials.”4
Procurement of grain in the USSR
60
The Story of Oil
50
80
70
Mean annual price
in real terms
60
Price, USD per barrel
50
Mean historic price
40 ($19.41 per barrel)
30
20
10
0
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
enormous (see figure 4). There is a very well-known eco- stopped binge drinking. Resolution: nominate Mr. Zasi-
nomic concept of external shocks. In the United States, adko as a minister to Ukraine.”
the world’s largest economy, the biggest external shock While intellectual capacity was not the strongest
during the last fifty years was in 1974, when oil prices quality of the Soviet leadership, they still understood the
quadrupled and terms of trade worsened by 15 percent. need to manipulate the oil market. Excerpts from Polit-
For the Soviet Union, skyrocketing oil prices had a buro materials indicate that the head of the Committee
much more substantial effect on GDP, which could be for State Security (KGB), Yury Andropov, facilitated
measured in hundreds of percentage points. Thus began contacts between the KGB and the Arab terrorists, who
the collapse of the Soviet empire. sought assistance for terrorist attacks on oil fields in
Imperial ambitions based on such unstable resources order to keep energy prices high.5 The general resolution
were not exclusive to the Soviet Union. The “resource was that the Soviet Union should support the Arab ter-
curse” was well-analyzed by the School of Salamanca rorists in this battle.6
in the experience of Spain of the sixteenth and seven- Yet one of the Soviet leadership’s biggest blunders
teenth centuries. The influence of the inflows of gold was to spend a significant amount of additional oil rev-
and the silver from America to Spain are comparable to enues to start the war in Afghanistan. The war radically
the impact of oil and gas revenues to the Soviet Union changed the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In
(see figure 5). The Spanish empire, without losing a 1974, Saudi Arabia decided to impose an embargo on oil
single battle on the ground for fifty years, managed to supplies to the United States. But in 1979 the Saudis
lose all of its possessions in Europe outside of the Pyre- became interested in American protection because they
nees, including Portugal, and came very close to losing understood that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was
Aragon and Catalonia as well. In 1989, also without a first step toward—or at least an attempt to gain—
losing on the battlefield for fifty years, the Soviet Union control over the Middle Eastern oil fields.
lost control over Eastern Europe. The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can
In the 1970s and early 1980s, the Soviet leadership, be traced to September 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh
however, was not intellectually prepared to heed lessons Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia,
from the School of Salamanca. The shortest quotation declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil
about the intellectual capacity of the Soviet leadership policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices,
came from the Politburo minutes: “Mr. Zasiadko has and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world
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FIGURE 5
INFLOW OF GOLD TO SPAIN IN 16TH–18TH CENTURIES, AND THE INFLOW TO THE USSR
OF FOREIGN CURRENCY FROM OIL EXPORTS IN 1970S–1980S
35 30
1982 1983
1985
20
1977 1978 1987 15
1976 1988
15 1989
1975 1986
10
10 1974
1973
5
5 1971 Loss of control over Portugal, risk of
1972
losing control over Aragon and Catalonia
0 0
1521– 1531– 1541– 1551– 1561– 1571– 1581– 1591– 1601– 1611– 1621– 1631– 1641–
1525 1535 1545 1555 1565 1575 1585 1595 1605 1615 1625 1635 1645
market. During the next six months, oil production in Third, implement radical cuts in the military-industrial
Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices col- complex. With this option, however, the Soviet leader-
lapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms. ship risked serious conflict with regional and industrial
As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 elites, since a large number of Soviet cities depended
billion per year, money without which the country sim- solely on the military-industrial complex. This choice
ply could not survive. The Soviet leadership was con- was also never seriously considered.
fronted with a difficult decision on how to adjust. There Unable to realize any of the above solutions, the
were three options—or a combination of three options— Soviet leadership decided to adopt a policy of effectively
available to the Soviet leadership. disregarding the problem in hopes that it would somehow
First, dissolve the Eastern European empire and effec- wither away. Instead of implementing actual reforms, the
tively stop barter trade in oil and gas with the Socialist Soviet Union started to borrow money from abroad while
bloc countries, and start charging hard currency for the its international credit rating was still strong. It borrowed
hydrocarbons. This choice, however, involved convincing heavily from 1985 to 1988, but in 1989 the Soviet
the Soviet leadership in 1985 to negate completely the economy stalled completely.
results of World War II. In reality, the leader who pro-
posed this idea at the CPSU Central Committee meeting The Search for Loans
at that time risked losing his position as general secretary.
Second, drastically reduce Soviet food imports by The money was suddenly gone. The Soviet Union tried
$20 billion, the amount the Soviet Union lost when to create a consortium of 300 banks to provide a large
oil prices collapsed. But in practical terms, this option loan for the Soviet Union in 1989, but was informed
meant the introduction of food rationing at rates simi- that only five of them would participate and, as a result,
lar to those used during World War II. The Soviet lead- the loan would be twenty times smaller than needed.
ership understood the consequences: the Soviet system The Soviet Union then received a final warning from
would not survive for even one month. This idea was the Deutsche Bank and from its international partners
never seriously discussed. that the funds would never come from commercial
-6-
sources. Instead, if the Soviet Union FIGURE 6
urgently needed the money, it would have STATE DEBT TO FOREIGN SUPPLIERS
to start negotiations directly with Western
governments about so-called politically 3500
2007-09 #21440