Binomial distributions for sample counts

Binomial distributions are models for some categorical variables, typically

representing the number of successes in a series of n trials.
The observations must meet these requirements:
The total number of observations n is fixed in advance.
Each observation falls into just 1 of 2 categories: success and failure.
The outcomes of all n observations are statistically independent.
All n observations have the same probability of success, p.
We record the next 50 births at a local hospital. Each newborn is either a
boy or a girl; each baby is either born on a Sunday or not.
Applications for binomial distributions
Binomial distributions describe the possible number of times that
a particular event will occur in a sequence of observations.
They are used when we want to know about the occurrence of an
event, not its magnitude.
In a clinical trial, a patients condition may improve or not. We study the
number of patients who improved, not how much better they feel.
Is a person ambitious or not? The binomial distribution describes the
number of ambitious persons, not how ambitious they are.
In quality control we assess the number of defective items in a lot of
goods, irrespective of the type of defect.
Reminder: Sampling variability
Each time we take a random sample from a population, we are likely to get a
different set of individuals and calculate a different statistic. This is called sampling
variability.
If we take a lot of random samples of the same size from a given population, the
variation from sample to samplethe sampling distributionwill follow a
predictable pattern.
Binomial mean and standard deviation
The center and spread of the binomial
distribution for a count X are defined by the mean
m and standard deviation s:
) 1 ( p np npq np = = = o
Effect of changing pwhen nis fixed.
a) n = 10, p = 0.25
b) n = 10, p = 0.5
c) n = 10, p = 0.75
For small samples, binomial distributions
are skewed when p is different from 0.5.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of successes
P
(
X
=
x
)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of successes
P
(
X
=
x
)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of successes
P
(
X
=
x
)
a)
b)
c)
Sample proportions
The proportion of successes can be more informative than the count. In
statistical sampling the sample proportion of successes, , is used to estimate the
proportion p of successes in a population.
For any SRS of size n, the sample proportion of successes is:
n
X
n
p = =
sample in the successes of count

In an SRS of 50 students in an undergrad class, 10 are Hispanic:

= (10)/(50) = 0.2 (proportion of Hispanics in sample)
The 30 subjects in an SRS are asked to taste an unmarked brand of coffee and rate it
would buy or would not buy. Eighteen subjects rated the coffee would buy.
= (18)/(30) = 0.6 (proportion of would buy)
p
p
p
Sampling distribution of the sample proportion
The sampling distribution of is never exactly normal. But as the sample size
increases, the sampling distribution of becomes approximately normal.
The normal approximation is most accurate for any fixed n when p is close to 0.5, and
least accurate when p is near 0 or near 1.
p

Estimation
Estimation A process whereby we select
a random sample from a population and use
a sample statistic to estimate a population
parameter.
Point and Interval Estimation
Point Estimate A sample statistic used to
estimate the exact value of a population
parameter
Confidence interval (interval estimate) A
range of values defined by the confidence level
within which the population parameter is
estimated to fall.
Confidence Level The likelihood, expressed
as a percentage or a probability, that a specified
interval will contain the population parameter.
Apopulation distribution variation in the larger
group that we want to know about.
Adistribution of sample observations
variation in the sample that we can observe.
Asampling distribution a normal distribution
whose mean and standard deviation are unbiased
estimates of the parameters and allows one to infer
the parameters from the statistics.
Inferential Statistics involves
Three Distributions:
What does this Theorem tell us:
Even if a population distribution is skewed, we know that the
sampling distribution of the mean is normally distributed
As the sample size gets larger the mean of the sampling
distribution becomes equal to the population mean
As the sample size gets larger the standard error of the mean
decreases in size (which means that the variability in the sample
estimates from sample to sample decreases as n increases).
It is important to remember that researchers do not
typically conduct repeated samples of the same
population. Instead, they use the knowledge of theoretical
sampling distributions to construct confidence intervals
around estimates.
The Central Limit Theorem
Revisited
Arange of reasonable guesses at a population value,
for example, a mean.
Confidence level = chance that range of guesses
captures the population value.
Most common confidence level is 95%
General Format of a Confidence Interval
estimate +/- margin of error
Accuracy of a mean
A sample of n=36 college women has
mean pulse = 75.3.
The SD of these pulse rates = 8 .
How well does this sample mean estimate
the population mean ?
Standard Error of Mean
SEM = SD of sample / square root of n
SEM = 8 / square root ( 36) = 8 / 6 = 1.33
Margin of error of mean = 2 x SEM
Margin of Error = 2.66 , about 2.7
Interpretation
95% confidence that the sample mean is
within 2.7 (pulse beats) of the population
mean.
A 95% confidence interval for the
population mean
sample mean +/- margin of error
75.3 +/-2.7 ; 72.6 to 78.0
C.I. for mean pulse of men
n=49
sample mean=70.3, SD = 8
SEM = 8 / square root(49) = 1.1
margin of error=2 x 1.1 = 2.2
Interval is 70.3 +/- 2.2
68.1 to 72.5
Do men and women differ in
mean pulse?
C.I. for women is 72.6 to 78.0
C.I. for men is 68.1 to 72.5
No overlap between intervals
We say that population means differ
Confidence Levels:
Confidence Level The likelihood, expressed as a
percentage or a probability, that a specified interval
will contain the population parameter.
95% confidence level there is a .95 probability that
a specified interval DOES contain the population
mean. In other words, there are 5 chances out of 100
(or 1 chance out of 20) that the interval DOES NOT
contains the population mean.
99% confidence level there is 1 chance out of 100
that the interval DOES NOT contain the population
mean.
Constructing a
Confidence Interval (CI)
The sample mean is the point estimate of the
population mean.
The sample standard deviation is the point
estimate of the population standard deviation.
The standard error of the mean makes it
possible to state the probability that an
interval around the point estimate contains
the actual population mean.
Standard error of the mean the standard
deviation of a sampling distribution
n
x
x
o
o = = Standard Error
The Standard Error
n
x
x
o
o =
Since the standard error is generally not known, we
usually work with the estimated standard error:
n
s
s
x
x
=
Estimating standard errors
) (
x
SE Z X CI =
Determining a
Confidence Interval (CI)
) (
n
s
Z X CI
x
=
Given a large enough sample, any confidence interval for the
population mean may be constructed:
Where z is chosen from a standard normal distribution table to
obtain a desired degree of confidence.
Confidence Level Increasing our confidence level
from 95% to 99% means we are less willing to draw
the wrong conclusion we take a 1% risk (rather
than a 5%) that the specified interval does not contain
the true population mean.
If we reduce our risk of being wrong, then we need a
wider range of values . . . Sotheinterval becomes
lessprecise.
) (
n
s
Z X
x

Confidence Interval Width

Confidence Interval Width
Confidence Interval Z Values
Sample Size Larger samples result in smaller
standard errors, and therefore, in sampling
distributions that are more clustered around the
population mean. Amore closely clustered sampling
distribution indicates that our confidence intervals
will be narrower and more precise.
Confidence Interval Width
) (
n
s
Z X
x

Standard Deviation Smaller sample standard

deviations result in smaller, more precise confidence
intervals.
(Unlike sample size and confidence level, the
researcher plays no role in determining the standard
deviation of a sample.)
Confidence Interval Width
) (
n
s
Z X
x

Finding confidence interval of the mean years of education of

voters. (Table 9.4, Hamilton)
Mean = 12.97 years
Standard deviation = 2.42 years
Number of cases n= 155
Calculation of 95 percent confidence interval.
) (
n
s
Z X
x

)
155
42 . 2
( 96 . 1 97 . 12
38 . 0 97 . 12 =
So the interval is 12.59 s s 13.35
Interpretation
Informal: Based on our analysis of this
particular sample, we are about 95% confident
that the mean education among all voters in
this town lies between 12.59 and 13.35 years.
Formal: If we took a large number of random
samples, each with 155 cases, and calculated
confidence intervals in this manner for each
sample, about 95% of those confidence
intervals should include the true population
mean .
Estimating the standard error of a proportion based
on the Central Limit Theorem, a sampling distribution of
proportions is approximately normal, with a mean,
t
,
equal to the population proportion, t, and with a standard
error of proportions equal to:
( )( )
n
t t
o
t

=
1

Since the standard error of proportions is generally not

known, we usually work with the estimated standard
error:
( )( )
n
s
t t
t

1

=
Confidence Intervals for Proportions
Determining a Confidence Interval
for a Proportion
( )( )
n
Z SE Z
t t
t t
t

1

) (

=
Large sample confidence intervals for proportions
are found as
Where z is chosen from a table of the standard normal
distribution to give the desired degree of confidence.
Finding an approximate 95% confidence interval for the
proportion favoring school closings.
Sample statistics:
Proportion favoring school closed = 0.431
Number of cases n = 153
Confidence interval for population proportion
t

( )( )
n
Z SE Z
t t
t t
t

1

) (

=
( )( )
153
431 . 0 1 431 . 0
96 . 1 431 . 0

=
078 . 0 431 . 0 =
So the interval is 0.353 s t s 0.509
Interpretation
Informal: Based on our analysis of this one sample we
are about 95% confident that the proportion in favor
of closing schools, among all voters in this town, lies
between 0.353 and 0.509.
Formal: If we took a large number of random
samples, each with 153 cases, and calculated
confidence intervals in this manner for each sample,
about 95% of those confidence intervals should
include the true population proportion t.