Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Pawar favours raising excise duty on sugar to decontrol industry
Agriculture ministry has favoured the food ministrys cabinet proposal to increase excise duty on sugar to offset the financial burden on the centre if it decides to buy the sweetener from the open market for ration shops, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said on Monday. In October 2012, the expert panel headed by PMEAC chairman C Rangarajan had recommended immediate removal of two major controls regulated release mechanism and levy sugar obligation. Under the levy sugar system, mills are required to sell 10 per cent of their output to the centre at cheaper rates to run ration shops, costing Rs 3,000 crore to industry annually. Food ministry has moved a cabinet proposal on removal of levy sugar and continue supply of subsided sugar in PDS. Currently, the government buys sugar at Rs 17 per kg from millers and sells it at Rs 13.50 per kg in PDS. Once levy system is removed, the government has to buy it at open market price. To reduce financial burden and continue supply of subsidies sugar, the food ministry has proposed increase in excise duty.... We have supported the proposal, Pawar told reporters. At present, the excise duty on sugar is about 70 paise per kg. The centre requires 27 lakh tonnes of sugar annually for public distribution system (PDS). (Source: Financial Chronicle)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Feb 18, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19501 5898 54.27 95.53 1609

0.17 0.18 -0.11 -0.34 0.04

0.21 0.01 0.56 -1.55 -2.35

-2.68 -2.74 0.97 -0.03 -4.58

6.63 6.00 10.09 -6.63 -6.80

.Source: Reuters

Pakistan cuts buying tea from Coonoor

There was a mentionable drop in the purchases for Pakistan at Sale No: 7 of Coonoor Tea Trade Association (CTTA) auctions. Most major exporters remained silent and some who bought sporadic volume said that they picked up the teas because the prices were in the low-bracket as demanded by their buyers. Normalcy is yet to return at the Indo-Pak border where traces of tension cast shadow on trade including tea shipments, an auctioneer told Business Line. (Source: Business Line)

Thundershowers likely in Punjab, Delhi, N-E; showers seen in TN, Kerala

The big western disturbance has cleared out bringing its wake colder winds and also fog to parts of North-West India. Northwesterly to westerly winds are prevailing over Gangetic plains, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said. A weather-driving trough persisted over South-West Bay of Bengal, as part of an easterly wave entourage. Climes over North-West will switch back to being wet and snowing with the expected arrival of a fresh system in next two days. The IMD expects fog/shallow fog to cover parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan on Tuesday morning. Rain or snow may over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Wednesday and increase, thereafter. This is due to the arrival of the incoming western disturbance, which would bring back showers also to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and North Rajasthan. (Source: Business Line)

S& P eyes commodity indices trade in India

With Indias commodity trading volumes more than doubling through the past three years, many global commodity indices majors are now considering India one of the most promising markets for commodity indices trading. S& P Dow Jones Indices ( S& P DJI) feels the potential for commodities indices trading in the Indian market is immense. Indias commodity market is growing big. More and more investors are now getting into commodities trading. We are looking at India and the entire Asia as a potential market for S& P indices, said Daniel Ung, associate director (index research & design group), S& P DJI. Currently, commodity index trading is not allowed in India. In equities, three quarters of the volumes are accounted for by index derivatives, including futures and options (F& O). Globally, commodity index trading is gaining momentum and its share in the overall financial derivatives markets has been on the rise. Parliament is likely to pass an amendment to enable index derivatives on commodity exchanges. However, this may take a few quarters or a year. After the law is amended, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) would have to finalise the regulations. (Source: Business
Standard)

Allow scientists to hold field trials of GM crops, says Pawar

Making a case for genetically-modified (GM) technology to boost farm output, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said scientists should not be denied the right to conduct field trials of such crops. We cannot afford to curtail the vigour of our scientific community and deny them the right to conduct trials, as has been done for some GM crops, despite being subjected to strictest controls of bio-safety, Pawar told the 84th annual general meeting of the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR). Constrained by depleting natural resources, including arable land, Pawar said We do not have any option but to try and achieve a major breakthrough in productivity to ensure food security of 1.2 billion plus population or our country. (Source: Business Line)

Punjab to sow new short duration Basmati variety next kharif

Punjab will be the first state to commence cultivation of new the short duration variety of Basmati rice from the next Kharif season. The new variety is expected to give boost to export potential of aromatic rice from the country. Developed by scientists of Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), under the ministry of agriculture, the new variety referred as 'Pusa Basmati 1509' takes about 115-120 days to mature against 145-150 days for 'Pusa 1121', which constitute a major chunk of India's aromatic long grain rice exports. Besides, the new variety does not shatter in case of any delay in harvesting and has a superior grain quality. An agriculture ministry official said following the meeting of All India Rice Workers Group meeting, which consist of rice breeders and other concerned officials, in April, the ministry will notify the variety '1509' as Basmati. (Source: Financial Express)

Cardamom drops on reports of imports from Guatemala

The cardamom market lost flavour last week on weak demand following reports of imports in large quantity of the commodity from Guatemala at low prices. However, good export buying has arrested a sharp fall in prices of cardamom. Exporters estimated to have bought 80-100 tonnes of good colour above 7 mm capsules at Rs 850-870 a kg, sources told Business Line. The market, in fact, crashed on Saturday with the average price dropping to Rs 640 following reports of imports, trade sources said. The individual auction average thus fell to below Rs 700 after some time, they said. Inferior grade cardamom, or rejection variety as it is called in trade parlance, is said to have been imported even though such material is available indigenously at Rs 500. Ever since the ban on Pan masala, there has been no demand for such material, they said. Added to this, a heavy downpour on Sunday in the major cardamom growing belts in Idukki district aided the creation of a bearish sentiment in the market.
(Source: Business Line)

Gur stock position till 18th February 2013

Total around 355101 bags of gur (40kg each) stored in cold storages till 18th February 2013 which are 335899 bags (40kg each) lower compared to last year same period. Out of total 355101 bags of gur, around 155000 bags of Chaku gur, 60000 bags of Rascut, 100000 bags of Papdi, and 1500 bags of Khurpa stored in the cold storages as reported. (Source: Agriwatch)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana opened sharply lower extending previous days losses on expectations that the arrivals would increase in the coming days. However, prices recovered in the later part of the session on account of short coverings. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.64% and 0.12% lower on Monday. Ministry of Agriculture in its second advance estimates, have pegged, bumper chana output for 2012-13 season at 8.57 mn tn, up 11% from 2011-12 final estimates of 7.7 mn tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3632 3457 Prev day -1.64 -0.12

as on Feb 18, 2013 % change WoW MoM 2.02 -7.47 1.80 -12.46 YoY 1.38 0.17

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

Chana sowing is 5.6% higher at 94.99 lakh ha compared to previous year. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 11.12 lakh ha vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.27 lakh ha, up by 28%. Compared to previous year. (Source: State farm dept)

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates. on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. India needs imports as its domestic production is insufficient to meet the rising demand. The countrys import bill on pulses stood at $1.83 billion in 2011-12. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 19, 2013 Resistance 3475-3500

3400-3430

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana Futures may decline initially on account of increasing arrival pressure. However, demand from the stockiest at lower prices may cushion sharp fall in the prices. It is crucial to keep a close watch on weather conditions. Adverse reports may bring in upside rebound in the prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar traded on a bullish note for the third consecutive session yesterday on expectations that government may partially decontrol sugar industry soon. Also, demand is expected to improve in the coming summer months. The March Futures settled 1.28% higher on Monday Indias sugar production for the 2013/14 season is set to fall below consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims acreage in three key states. (Reuters) Indias Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that they are favoring Food Ministrys proposal to increase the production tax on Sugar from the current Rs. 0.71/kg to Rs. 1.5/kg if mills were freed from an obligation to sell the sweetener at lower prices for public distribution. Food minister KV Thomas on Thursday said the government is likely to take a decision on decontrolling the sugar industry before the Budget. Food ministry has proposed dispensing with the regulatory release mechanism and abolishing the levy system. India has fixed FRP (Fair and Remunerative Price), the price sugar mills must pay to cane growers at 210 rupees per 100 kg in the 2013/14 year, compared to current years 170 per qtl. Higher floor price increases the cost of production as the raw material cost constitute the major part of cost of production of sugar. This should actually increase the prices of sugar. Liffe white sugar settled higher by 1.55% on Monday on account of short coverings while Raw sugar futures on ICE remained closed on account of Presidents Day holiday. A global surplus situation has led the prices to a sharp decline. Currently the prices are trading around their 2 year lows.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3200

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.10 0.42 MoM -2.04 YoY 9.26

Rs/qtl

3125

0.45

2.46

-3.64

8.54

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 497.9 400.00

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.55 0.33 1.92 -2.39 MoM 0.08 -2.44 YoY -21.54 #N/A

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX March contract

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, Indian 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Mar NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 19, 2013 Resistance 3190-3210

Global Sugar Updates

Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel. If brazil cuts tax the ethanol parity to sugar may rise and thus the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may be 44 -45%, down from 49.6 % in the current period. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop. According to Job Economia, Brazil's main center-south cane crop is due to produce 36 mn tn of sugar in 2013/14 higher than 34.2 mn tn last year. In the international markets, ICE Raw sugar fell to their two and a half years low expecting third consecutive year of global surplus in 2012-13. A third consecutive global sugar surplus will trim prices as supply is forecast to exceed demand by more than 8 million tonnes in the crop year to September 2013.
3105-3139

Outlook
Sugar futures is expected to trade on a positive note on expectations government may take some decision over decontrolling of sugar industry. Also, demand is expected to improve gradually from the bulk manufacturers in the coming weeks.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean March Futures gained 1.02% on Monday on
account of dwindling supplies in the domestic markets coupled with good demand from the crushing industry for its meal. Oil meal exports rose by almost 40 per cent to 7.68 lakh tonnes in January this year, industry body Solvent Extractors Association of India said. The export of oil meals, however declined by 18 per cent to 36.79 lakh tonnes in the first 10 months of this fiscal compared to 44.85 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. The country exported 25.36 lakh tn soybean meal in first 10 months compared to 30.82 lakh tn in the same period last year which showing a decline of 17.72%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.
Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3385 3366 735.6 735.7

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change Prev day 0.56 0.87 -0.10 -0.02 WoW 1.74 3.57 0.66 1.99 MoM 4.19 4.47 -1.42 -1.50 YoY 32.59 29.39 4.46 3.77

Source: Reuters

as on Feb 15, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1425 51.62 Prev day 0.46 -0.15 WoW -0.49 0.74 MoM -0.84 0.60
Source: Reuters

YoY 12.39 -3.33

International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT remained closed on Monday on account of Presidents Day holiday. Prices have increased on account of higher soy meal demand. US soybean processors crushed 158.195 mn bushels of soybeans in January, the second-largest monthly total in 3 years due to huge demand for soy meal, both from exporters as well as domestic livestock producers. The scant rains and high temperatures worrying Argentine farmers since January have started to hit the development of corn and soy crops. 99% of the estimated soy area of 19.35 mn ha has been covered as on 14th Feb. Rains are urgently needed in the current yield-setting phase; otherwise productivity will be seriously affected. China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 4.78 million tonnes of soybeans in January, down 18.8 percent from 5.89 million tonnes in December

Crude Palm Oil

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.89 1.01 0.16 0.36

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Mar '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Feb '13 Futures

Last 2474 451.8

MoM 8.75 2.24

YoY -23.50 -15.33

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil traded higher on account of good
demand and settled 0.21% higher. CPO also settled 1.01% higher on Monday tracking firm international markets. India's vegetable oil imports soared 27 percent from a month ago to an all-time high in January on purchases of cheap palm oil. To curb imports, the tariff value of crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%. However, 1-10 Feb Malaysian exports rose 25%. If the trend continues, CPO prices may witness an upside in the coming days.

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3750 3478 Prev day 0.00 0.87

as on Feb 18, 2013 WoW -8.42 2.66 MoM -10.07 -13.25

Source: Reuters

YoY 10.91 -0.37

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX March contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures settled 0.87% higher due to

rains in the mustard growing regions which may delay the harvesting and arrivals of the new crop. Mustard seed sowing is now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean complex is expected to trade higher today tracking positive international markets due to crop concerns in Argentina. However, expectations of Rabi crop arrivals to commence soon may cap a sharp upside. Mustard seed may remain weak on higher output expectations. CPO is also expected to open higher tracking positive BMD prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Mar NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Mar Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Feb 19, 2013 Support 703-706 3195-3225 3415-3449 446-449 Resistance 711-716 3280-3300 3500-3520 453-455

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper March Futures traded on a bullish note yesterday hitting the 3% upper circuit on account of low stocks, thin supplies and delayed harvesting due to lack of skilled laborers. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Some improvement in the arrivals of the fresh crop led to a decline in the prices earlier last week. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.49% and 3% higher on Monday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,900/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnams 550 GL is quoted at $6,700/tn, Malaysia and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil black pepper is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 41020 40515 % Change Prev day 0.49 1.67

as on Feb 18, 2013 WoW 2.09 4.64 MoM 5.13 10.24 YoY 29.55 30.36

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX March contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Mar Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Feb 19, 2013 Support 37240-37620 Resistance 38400-38780

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 65 tonnes while off takes were reported at 67 tonnes on Monday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to continue to trade higher today on account of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, any improvement in arrivals will cap sharp upside.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures declined yesterday as the arrivals of the new crop has gained momentum in the last few days. However, fresh export enquiries prevent a sharp downside. The arrivals of new crop are around 3,000 bags/day and are expected to increase in the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.87% and 1.13% lower on Monday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,975-$3,000 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13868 13355 Prev day -0.87 -1.13

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change WoW 1.24 1.66 MoM -3.46 -2.32 YoY -5.30 -5.40

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 tn on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.44 0.53

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures is expected to trade on a negative note today on account of higher arrivals. However, overseas demand at lower levels may support prices. Demand from domestic traders and millers may also support prices at lower levels. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5495 6416

WoW 1.68 2.33

MoM -1.58 0.44

YoY 17.87 33.50

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a positive yesterday due to some unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh coupled with output concerns. There is good demand from local buyers and stockists. Prices have corrected from higher levels over the last couple of days due to huge carryover stocks. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.44% and 0.53% higher Monday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode stood at 2,500 bags while Nizamabad mandi remained closed on Monday due to labour strike and will open on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a positive bias. Lower output concerns and demand from stockists at lower levels is expected to support prices at lower levels. However, higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand may pressurize prices at higher levels.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Feb 19, 2013

Support 13190-13280 6300-6360 Resistance 13460-13550 6480-6540

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Kapas futures and MCX Cotton traded on a bullish note yesterday and settled 1.62% and 0.7% higher respectively on account of firm international markets and improved demand in the domestic markets. China is also expected to release its import quota, which have supported prices over the last couple of days Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier. The Cotton Advisory Board, which met in Mumbai on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) will be 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October at 334 lakh bales. Also, exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports. ICE Cotton futures remained closed on account of Presidents Day holiday. US Cotton acreage is likely to go down by 27% which may support prices in the international markets. Strong weekly export sales figures also supported prices last week.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 939 17370

as on Feb 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.62 3.76 0.70 1.94 MoM 1.46 1.94 YoY #N/A -2.42

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Feb Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 81.32 81.35

as on Feb 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.37 -1.93 0.00 0.00 MoM 5.16 0.00 YoY #N/A -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
th

Source: Telequote

Global Cotton Updates

U.S. weekly export sales of the Cotton nearly doubled in the week ended Feb. 7 to a total of 185,700 running bales. The strong recovery after two weeks of declining exports alleviate concerns of waning demand from Chinese buyers, though the volumes remained five percent lower than the previous four-week average. The U.S. government on Friday nudged higher its global cotton stockpile forecast for 2012/13 amid expectations that China, the world's largest textile market, will import even more fiber for its massive strategic supply. However, the government lowered US carryover by 300,000 bales, or 6 percent, to 4.5 million bales due to an increase of the same size in its export estimate to 12.5 million bales.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Feb contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Kapas prices is expected to continue to trade with upward bias today on account of firm international markets amid lower US cotton planting intentions for 2012-13. However, sufficient supplies in the domestic markets and lower export demand expectations may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Feb 19, 2013 Support 920-929 17220-17290 Resistance 945-950 17420-17470

www.angelcommodities.com