13 Feb.

09

UNITED-STATES : ADVANCED RETAILSALES REBOUND IN JANUARY

UNITED-STATES : UNEMPLOYMENT IS RISING

Major indexes were down 3 % half an hour before the close, then sharply rebounded and erased
their losses on good news about the stimulus plan
The WTI fell below $34 a barrel

US continuing jobless claims (thousands)

since 1999

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

Source : Department of Labor

Initial jobless claims slightly declined from 631 000 to 623 000 February 7th but continuing
claims rose from 4 799 000 to 4 810 000 January 31st .( see p.3)

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7932,8 -1,43% -9,61% EUR/USD 1,2914 -0,13% -7,51%
S&P 500 835,2 -1,15% -7,54% EUR/JPY 117,74 0,77% -6,92%
Nasdaq 1541,7 -0,26% -2,24% USD/JPY 91,18 0,69% 0,68%
CAC 40 2964,3 -3,33% -7,88% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4407,6 -2,28% -8,37% Brent $/b 44,2 -3,08% 6,20%
Eurostoxx 50 2215,0 -3,41% -9,51% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 190,6 -1,95% -3,89% Gold $/oz 940,4 3,11% 6,55%
FTSE 100 4202,2 -0,54% -5,23% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7779,4 -4,15% -12,19% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,12
Shanghai Comp 2320,8 7,15% 27,46% Overnight 0,20 1,10 0,12
Sensex (India) 9613,2 4,12% -0,35% 3 Months 0,29 0,97 0,23
MICEX (Russia) 711,5 10,78% 14,84% 10 Years** 2,80 3,10 1,27
Bovespa (Brasil) 40500,8 -1,48% 7,86% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
U.S. fixed-income markets close at 2 p.m., ahead of Presidents Day.
Finance ministers of the G8 major industrialized countries meet in Rome
Consumer goods fair (Ambiente) in Frankfurt
Chicago Auto Show (to February 22).
The US House of Representatives and Senate go into recess for the President’s Day period (to February 22).
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous

08.00 am Germany Gross Domestic Product ( préliminairy) Fourth quarter - 1,4 %, - 1 % YoY -1,8%,-1,4% YoY -0,5%,+0,8% YoY
08.00 am Euro area EU 25 new car registration January -18,2%
08.45 am France Non farm payrolls ( preliminary) Fourth quarter -0,4% QoQ -0,5% QoQ -0,3% QoQ
08.45 am France Wages ( preliminary) Fourth quarter 0,4% 0,7%
10.00 am Italy Gross Domestic Product ( préliminairy) Fourth quarter -1,3%,-1,7% YoY -0,5%,-0,9% YoY
11.00 am Euro area Gross Domestic Product ( advanced) Fourth quarter -1,0%,-0,8% YoY -1,3%,-1,1% YoY -0,2%,+0,6% YoY
16.00 pm United-States University of Michigan consumer confidence Fourth quarter 60,2 61,2

! "

Results L’Espagne s’enfonce

Air France / Pernod Ricard / Enel / Thyssenkrupp / La Tribune, p 2 et 3
Boliden / Michelin / Deutsche Postbank / Iberdrola Exactly how does stimulus work ?
Renovables (BMO) / Valeo / Pepsi Co The Wall Street Journal, p 11
Dividend 14 milliards: Total bat tous les records de bénéfices
Schlumberger ($0.21) Le Figaro économie, p 21
Impact of U.S. plan will be felt slowly
Financial Times, p 2
La France s’installe à son tour dans une récession
sévère
Les Echos, p 2 et 6

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 Economic data preview

No major economic data released in the United-States today

Watch in Germany the release of the Gross Domestic product( preliminary) for the fourth quarter due at 08.00 am , expected to sharply
decrease as the German’s growth being mainly based on exportations is strongly hit by the global economic recession reducing the
demand for German’s goods abroad , watch in France the release of the Gross Domestic product( preliminary) for the fourth quarter due
at 08.50 am and expected to slumped as all economic indicators are in the red zone as showed by the recent plunge of the industrial
production ( 17% of the GDP), watch in the Euro area the release of the Gross Domestic product( advanced ) for the fourth quarter due at
11.00 am which is expected to decrease for its third quarter in a row as the area is hit job losses , a lack of credit and a global downturn,
which as inflation is on a drop trend is putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to decrease its leading rate in March. ./JB

ate

ECONOMY
UNITED-STATES : ADVANCED RETAILSALES REBOUND IN JANUARY
After dropping for seven months retails sales rebound in January at 1.0% from -3.0% in December . It must be notify that retail sales
measured in value , consequently has prices slightly increased in January, mechanically the retails sales increased. In addition the
increase was flattered by a 2.6% gain in gasoline sales ( as gas price rose) and an unpredicted rise in auto sales . Nevertheless even
after excluding gas and autos sales rose by 0.8%the first rise since July. This data measured in value should not overshadow that the
sales are still falling at the very fast pace of 24.3% ( three month annualised rate).

UNITED-STATES : UNEMPLOYMENT IS RISING

Initial jobless claims slightly declined from 631 000 to 623 000 February 7 th but continuing claims rose from 4 799 000 to 4 810 000
January 31 th. As the recession is deepening in the United - States, household consumption ( 71 % of the GDP ) is dropping and global
economic slowdown cuts demand for American goods abroad generating slash in investments , cost cutting and unemployment which
damped the demand and reduce again investments as a vicious circle. The drop of the short terms interest rate , and the government
rescue plan will take 6 to 9 month to impact the economic activity. Consequently in this time frame the economic situation will worsen and
unemployment will rise.

UNITED-STATES : BUSINESS INVENTORIES DROPPED IN DECEMBER

U.S business inventories dropped to -1.3% in December from -1.1% in November ( forecast -0.9%). As the general economic outlook is
gloomy and as the rescue plan from Barrack Obama is not as concrete as expected the level of uncertainty remains very high for American
companies. Indeed domestic and household consumption are falling due to the credit crunch and to the global economic recession .
Consequently for the moment companies had no reason to increase their stocks.

EURO AREA : INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DECLINED MOST ON RECORD IN DECEMBER

European industrial production dropped the most on record in December at ( -2.6%,-12.0% YoY) way below forecast ( -2.5%, -9.5% YoY).
This sharp drop underlined the deepness of the recession in the euro area . Indeed, unemployment is rising , the lack of credit is damping
household consumption and the global downturn cut significantly the demand for goods abroad and inside the euro area. It must be notify
that the industry sector represent 20% of the GDP in the euro area versus 13% in the United -States./JB

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 Major indexes were down 3 % half an hour before the close, then sharply rebounded and
erased their losses on good news about the stimulus plan
The WTI fell below $34 a barrel
Major indexes were down 3 % half an hour before the close, then sharply rebounded and erased their losses
on good news about the stimulus plan, mainly about measures to avoid foreclosures. Banks (Bank of America -3.29
%, Citigroup -2.17 %, Wells Fargo -4.00 %, but Morgan Stanley +0.35 %, Goldman Sachs +0.92 %) and other
financials (Visa +2.62 %, State Street -3.09 %) were mixed. Homebuilders were on the downside: KB Home -5.46 %,
Lennar -4.95 %, Pulte Homes -3.30 %. Another sharp drop in oil prices (WTI as low as $33.55 /bbl) left oil companies
(ExxonMobil +0.86 %, Chevron -1.06 %) and oil services (Schlumberger -1.36 %, Transocean +2.57 %) mixed
while refiners rose: Sunoco +1.82 %, Valero +4.21 %. Chesapeake (+2.22 %) rose. With the exception of Alcoa (-
2.47 %), basic resources were up: Freeport McMoran+5.30 %, US Steel +2.57 %, Nucor +2.07 %. Industrials were
down (General Electric -2.18 %, 3M -2.57 %, Boeing -1.17 %) rose while defence rose (Northrop Grumman +2.89
%). Transport was down (Union Pacific -4.35 %, Burlington Northern -3.04 %) while airlines rebounded: Delta +7.73
%, UAL +4.52 %, AMR +8.06 %. Retailers were broadly higher with some exceptions: Costco +1.79 %, Best Buy
+3.56 %, Lowe’s +1.42 %, Nordstrom +3.30 %, Macy’s +2.47 % but Target -2.83 %, Kohl’s -3.66 %. Techs rose
#$%&' (Microsoft +0.26 %, Adobe +4.48 %, RIM +3.40 %, Apple +2.09 %, Hewlett-Packard +0.46 %) while semiconductors
()*+&, were mixed: Intel -0.57 %, Applied Materials -3.58 %, Texas Instruments +0.99 %, Broadcom +2.89 %, National
Semiconductor +4.31 %, AMD +6.10 %. With the exception of McDonald’s (-0.21 %), consumer stocks and foods
rose: Coca-Cola +7.56 %, Pepsico +2.75 %, Nike +0.34 %, Kraft +1.43 %. Among telcos, Sprint (+6.38 %) surged.
Pharmaceuticals were mixed (Pfizer +1.88 %, Merck -1.28 %) while biotechs rose: Biogen +3.08 %, Genzyme +3.00
%, Celgene +1.56 %. Media were up: Viacom +4.22 %, Comcast +2.13 %, Walt Disney +1.78 %. Liberty Media
(+1.43%) is in preliminary talks to acquire Sirius XM Radio (+37.03%), which is on the cusp on bankruptcy. The talks
present a hurdle to a potential buyout of Sirius by EchoStar, which has been buying up Sirius' s debt. EchoStar and
Liberty are rivals in the satellite television market.
AFTER SESSION : Bank of America -1.36%,Microsoft -2.91%, Citigroup -1.94%,Wells Fargo -3.21%,JP Morgan -
2.21%,Direxionshares -2.87%,XL Capital -1.15%,Geron Corp -8.62%,Pfizer -1.02%.
This morning (8.26 GMT) INDEX FUTURES were mixed : DJIA -0.189%,S&P 500-0.048%, NASDAQ +0.020 %.
JFV
Treasury prices rose were little changed on Thursday after a government report showed continuing stress in U.S.
employment and amid rising concern that lawmakers'plan to stimulate the economy will not be effective. U.S.
government debt briefly pared gains after the Treasury sold $14 billion in 30-year bonds, finishing off the massive
amount of debt sold this week in the government' s quarterly refunding. The Treasury sold the 30-year bonds to yield
- ./0 3.540%, the lowest on record. In the Treasury' s auction of 30-year bonds, bidders offered $2.02 for every dollar
()*+&, available, compared to an average of $2.19 at the last 10 auctions. Indirect bidders, a group of investors that includes
foreign central banks, purchased 33.9% of the offering, compared to an average of 23.7% over that span. Direct
bidders, investors bidding for their own accounts, took a record 16.4% of the sale.
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.89 %, -2 bps, 5-year rate at 1.76 %, +2 bps, 10-year rate at 2.78 %, +1 bps, 30-year
rate at 3.49 %, +5 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread sharply narrowed to -30 bps. /JFV
Japan’s stocks rose for the first time this week of 74.04 or 1% at 7,779.40 on optimism a U.S. plan to aid
homeowners will ease global credit markets and earnings downgrades prompted investors to favour
companies with stable profits. More generally Asian stocks rose for the first time in five days, led by banks and
electronics companies. In Tokyo car sector went up (Bridgestone +6.0%),component sector went up ( CSK Holdings
,%(/ #$%&' +7.72%,Advantest +3.71%, TDK +3.36%),electronic sector went up ( Olympus +1.34%) but Pioneer tumbled 20%
()*+&, after widening its full year loss forecast to a record. Distribution sector went up, Seven &Holdings Japan’s largest
retailer and which forecast profit to increase this year climbed 3.8%,oil sector rose significantly ( INPEX
+3.90%).Finally financial sector dropped ( Credit Saison -1.14%,Nomura -1.04%) but Mitsubisbi financials Japan’s
number one listed lender rose 0.9% after a person briefed on the matter said President Obama ‘s administration is
preparing a plan to lower mortgage rates . /JB
Crude oil prices tumbled below $34 a barrel as rising U.S. inventories and worries over the economy weighed
again on investor sentiment. According to EIA, U.S. natural-gas inventories dropped by 159 billion cubic feet in the
week ended Feb. 6 but less than expected. The oil inventories at Cushing where New York traded futures are delivered
%1 rose for the sixth consecutive record high and the supplies have almost doubled in three months. The WTI dropped
more than 17 % in five sessions at $33.98 or –5.45 % to a seven-week low. The “spread” between the Brent widened
against the WTI at $10 as Brent prices ended up 1.15 % at $44.38 a barrel. This morning, the future for March delivery
was up 1.12 % at $34.45 a barrel. /LC
Yesterday afternoon, the dollar rose after the rebound in U.S. retail sales and headed for a weekly gain against
the euro and British pound on speculation U.S. efforts to stimulate the economy won’t be enough to avoid a prolonged
.)+2 recession, spurring demand for the relative safety of Treasuries. The yen was set for its first weekly gain versus the
euro. But this morning, the euro reversed its trend.
(1.2925 EUR/USD vs. 1.2906 yesterday morning, 117.69 EUR/JPY vs. 116.18, 91.06 USD/JPY vs. 90.052). /JFV

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 Europe America Asia
Indices 12/2/09 % Chg Indices 12/2/09 % Chg Indices 13/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2215 -2,34% DJIA 7933 -0,09% Nikkei 7779 +0,96%
DJ 600 191 -1,29% S&P 500 835 +0,17% Topix 765 +0,57%
FTSE 100 4202 -0,76% NASDAQ 1542 +0,73% Hong Kong 13505 +2,11%
DAX (XETRA) 4408 -2,71% TSX 8779 +0,47% Singapore 1705 +1,16%
CAC 40 2964 -2,09% Bolsa (Mexico) 19358 -0,46% South Korea 1192 +1,07%
AEX (Pays Bas) 248 -1,98% Bovespa (Br.) 40501 -0,84% Thailand 445 +1,11%
SMI (Suisse) 5107 -0,33% Merval (Argent.) 1085 -2,10% Indonesia 1341 +1,15%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 18673 -2,05% IPSA (Chili) 12414 -0,46% Taiwan 4593 +2,82%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8201 -1,85% IGBVL (Pérou) 6859 -0,57% China 2321 +3,23%
BVL (Portugal) 2117 -1,19% India 9615 +1,57%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
AEGON NV 2,92 VOLKSWAGEN AG -6,93 COCA-COLA CO/THE7,56 -6,25 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL SHOWA DENKO K K 8,48 PIONEER CORP -20,23
0,74
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED
BNP PARIBAS -5,47 PFIZER INC 1,88 GENERAL MOTORS -3,29
CORP 7,72
CSK HOLDINGS CORP -14,55
T&D HOLDINGS INC
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
TOTAL SA 0,54 -4,79
CREDIT AGRICOLE SA 1,78
WALT DISNEY CO/THE 3M CO -2,57 OJI PAPER CO LTD 6,14 CHIYODA CORP -8,13
-4,60
PHILIPS ELECTRONICS NV EXXON MOBIL CORP0,86 ALCOA INC -2,47 6,00
BRIDGESTONE CORP CITIZEN HOLDINGS -7,93
CO LTD
ING GROEP NV-CVA-4,46 0,79
JOHNSON & JOHNSON GENERAL ELECTRIC-2,18
CO SECOM CO LTD 5,88 -6,52 IN
SOMPO JAPAN INSURANCE

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www.global-equities.com
 !3%
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5 1
13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009 13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009 13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

%
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150 1,65
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13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009 13/02/2007 13/08/2007 13/02/2008 13/08/2008 13/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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www.global-equities.com
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