04 Feb.

09

UNITED -STATES : PENDING HOME SALES ROSE IN DECEMBER

UNITED - STATES: TOTAL VEHICLE SALES PLUNGED TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL FOR 28 YEARS IN JANUARY

Stocks finished in black after up and down session

The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would extend five of its liquidity programs for an extra six
months

US Auto sales (Domestic and Total) annualized (units/Million)

since 1980

21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5

Domestic Total

Source : Bloomberg
The total vehicle sales in the United-States plunge to its lowest level since 1981 in January at 9.6 million
( forecast 10.2 million ) as global recession and credit crunch in the most industrialized countries are
ravaging demand despite the sharp drop of oil price since its peak of July 2008. In the mean time
domestic vehicle sales plunges as well to their lowest level since 1981 at 6.9 million ( forecast 7.7
million). This underline the fact that General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will need deeper restructuring
and more federal money to survive

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 8078,4 -1,18% -7,95% EUR/USD 1,3013 -1,21% -6,91%
S&P 500 838,5 -0,83% -7,17% EUR/JPY 115,83 2,60% -8,62%
Nasdaq 1516,3 0,78% -3,85% USD/JPY 89,02 1,41% -1,84%
CAC 40 2982,4 0,94% -7,32% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4375,0 1,19% -9,05% Brent $/b 43,8 0,67% 4,89%
Eurostoxx 50 2244,9 1,11% -8,28% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 189,8 0,86% -4,33% Gold $/oz 899,1 1,34% 1,97%
FTSE 100 4164,5 -0,70% -6,08% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8038,9 -2,92% -9,26% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,11
Shanghai Comp 2107,7 3,35% 15,76% Overnight 0,20 1,00 0,11
Sensex (India) 9284,9 1,68% -3,76% 3 Months 0,31 1,12 0,29
MICEX (Russia) 626,0 3,84% 1,05% 10 Years** 2,86 3,35 1,35
Bovespa (Brasil) 39746,8 2,71% 5,85% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian president, is scheduled to address the European parliament.
The House Financial Services Committee examines the Madoff case, and regulators' failure to pick up on it.
Meeting between, Bulgarian president Geoorgi Purvanov and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president
Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the economic outlook.
Indonesia is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points; a Norway cut is seen.
Nasa will launch its Poral satellite
The American International Fine Art Fair begins in Palm Beach, Florida.
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous

01.01 am United-Kingdom Nationwide consumer confidence January 45 47
02.00 am China PMI Manufacturing January 41,2
09.45 am Italy PMI Services January 40,0 40,3
09.50 am France PMI Services ( final) January 42,9 42,9
09.55 am Germany PMI Services ( final) January 45,4 45,4
10.00 am Euro area PMI Composite ( final) January 38,5 38,5
10.00 am Euro area PMI Services ( final) January 42,5 42,5
10.30 am United-Kingdom PMI Services January 40,3 40,2
10.30 am United-Kingdom Official reserves ( changes) January $ 1,5 billions
11.00 am Euro area Retail sales December -0,2%,-1,4% YoY 0,6%,-1,5% YoY
01.00 pm United States MBA mortgage applications January 31 th -38,8%
01.30 pm United States Challenger job cuts (YoY) January 274,5% YoY
02.15 pm United States ADP employment change January -530 000 - 693 000
04.00 pm United States ISM non manufacture composite January 39,1 39,0 40,1

Results
Alcatel (BMO) / BHP Biliton / Roche / Cisco / Kraft Foods Le crédit en panne : les Etats se fâchent
/ Sandvik / Philip Morris / Sara Lee / Time Warner / Pepsi La Tribune, p 22 et 23
/ America Express
U.S. car sales fall to lowest in decades
Dividend The Wall Street Journal, p 31
Boeing ($0.42) / Pfizer ($0.32) / Schering Plough
($0.065) White House injects range of spending to boos ailing
patient
Financial Times, p 2

L’Espagne a détruit 200.000 emplois en un seul mois

Les Echos, p 7

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 Economic data preview

Today ,watch in the United States the release of the PMI non manufacturing composite for January due at 04.00 pm expected to
decrease as the service are now affected even if it is at a lowest level than manufacturing sector .

Today ,watch in the Euro -Zone the release of the retail sales due at 11.00 am for December which are expected to decrease as the
household purchase power is strongly hit by the rise of the unemployment and by the credit crunch. /JB

ate

ECONOMY
UNITED -STATES : PENDING HOME SALES ROSE IN DECEMBER
After their peak of 7.5% in August, and after decreasing for three month in a row , U.S. pending home sales increased in December at
6.3%.This means that more Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned home in December for the first time in four months
underlining that slumping prices might boost demand .

UNITED - STATES: TOTAL VEHICLE SALES PLUNGED TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL FOR 28 YEARS IN JANUARY
The total vehicle sales in the United-States plunge to its lowest level since 1981 in January at 9.6 million ( forecast 10.2 million ) as global
recession and credit crunch in the most industrialized countries are ravaging demand despite the sharp drop of oil price since its peak of
July 2008. In the mean time domestic vehicle sales plunges as well to their lowest level since 1981 at 6.9 million ( forecast 7.7 million).
This underline the fact that General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will need deeper restructuring and more federal money to survive.

GERMANY :RETAIL SALES SURPRISINGLY DROPPED IN DECEMBER

German retails sale dropped in December of 0.2% for the third time in a row and declined of 0.3% from a year earlier after their plunge of
November ( -3.2%).This drop is mainly explained by the unemployment who rose to a seven-month high in January as companies are
cutting investment due to very weak foreign and domestic demand. The unemployment rate is now at 7.8% in Germany its level of June
2008.This drop of retail sales was unexpected ( forecast 0.5%,+0.5% YoY) as inflation is decreasing in Germany (-0.5%,+0.9% YoY in
January)due to the fail of energy and commodity prices. The drop of the retail sales add to the drop of German exports underline the fact
the recession is deepening in Germany and will most likely be the worst since world war two.

UNITED-KINGDOM : THE PMI CONSTRUCTION ROSE IN JANUARY

After slumping at 29.3 in December ( the fastest contraction in more than a decade ) the PMI manufacturing ( a survey of purchasing
managers at building companies ) unexpectedly rose at 34.5 in January. This rise can be explained as a correction in comparison to the
gloomy data of December but should not overshadow this extremely weak level of the British PMI construction index. Indeed a data under
the level of 50 reveals a contraction of the activity. As the recession is deepening in United-Kingdom and as the credit crunch and the rise
of the unemployment are slashing household purchase power the PMI construction should remains very weak in the next six months.

EURO-AREA : THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DROPPED IN DECEMBER

The European producer price dropped at -1.3% in December after the sharp drop of -2.0% in November and fell at 1.8% from a year ago
( the fifth drop in a row after the peak of 9.2% YoY in July).This lasting drop of the European price index is correlated to the drop of energy
prices and especially crude oil which reached a record $147.27 in July and dropped 70% to around $41.This drop of the European inflation
add to the deepening recession put more pressure on the European Central Bank to cut its leading rate in February and not to wait March
as mentioned By Mr Trichet. ./JB

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 Stocks finished in black after up and down session
The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would extend five of its liquidity programs
for an extra six months
Stocks finished in black after up and down session.The market moved higher Tuesday afternoon, as traders
wrestled with mixed earnings, auto sales figures and a new housing data. Unexpectedly strong pending home sales
data sent homebuilders soaring: DR Horton +21.44 %, Pulte Homes +6.64 %, Toll Bros +6.36 %, Lennar +9.85 %,
Centex +10.34 %, KB Home +10.53 %. Merck (+6.37 %) said revenue stood at $6.03bn ($5.97bn exp.) with net profit
at $1.64bn (-$1.63bn n-1)Sees Q1 EPS less than one-fourth of 2009 EPS Reaffirms FY 2009 EPS at $3.15-3.30
($3.27 exp.) and sees a FY revenue between $23.7-24.2bn. Schering Plough’s (+8.24 %) sales rose 16.9% at
$4.35bn ($4.512bn exp.) with global cholesterol JV net sales at $1.1bn. Net profit stood at $480m (-$3.3bn loss n-1 on
charges). Pfizer (+2.08 %), Eli Lilly (+3.81 %) rose. Citigroup (-5.21%) is considering abandoning a $400 million
marketing deal with the New York Mets that includes the naming rights of its new stadium. Banks were down: JP
Morgan -4.56 %, Bank of America -11.67 %, American Express -5.24 %. Other financials were mixed: AIG
-12.20 %, Visa -3.16 %, MetLife -1.86 %, but AllState +4.69 %, MasterCard +1.99 %, State Street +2.85 %. UPS
(+6.08 %) said revenue -5% at $12.7bn ($13.09bn exp.) with US volumes -4.4% Net at $254m (-$2.64bn n-1) Q1 will
be weak, sees slight improvements later in year. Transport was up: FedEx +7.49 %, Union Pacific +5.59 %,
Burlington +4.13 %. Tyco (+19.32 %) said revenue declined 8.5% at $4.43bn ($4.36bn exp), all 5 businesses down,
with net profit down 23.7% at $277m ($363m n-1), from continuing operations -17%. No forecast on poor visibility.
Northrop Grumman (+4.23 %) said revenue rose 4% at $9.15bn ($8.77bn exp.) with net loss at $2.5bn with a charge
!"#$ of $3.1bn for impairment of goodwill. Cash from operations increased to $1bnSees FY 2009 EPS between $5.15-5.40
%&'(#) ($5.11 exp.) and sees FY revenue at $34.5bn ($35.21bn exp.). Industrials and defence was upbeat: 3M +2.02 %,
United Technologies +1.62 %, Boeing +3.16 %, Deere +2.59 %, with the exception of General Electric -2.15 %,
Honeywell -0.44 %. Ford (+4.25 %) resisted dismal auto sales. General Motors (-1.38 %) decreased. Archer Daniel
Midland (+0.54 %) said revenue rose 1% at $16.67bn ($17.08 exp.) with net profit +33% at $585m ($437m exp.).
Consumer stocks rose: Mc Donald’s +1.69 %, Coca-Cola +2.56 %, Altria +1.44 %, Wendy’s +4.88 %, Nike +4.21 %.
Motorola (-11.01 %) said revenue declined 4.5% at $7.1bn ($7.07bn exp.) with net loss at $3.58bn (+$100m n-1)
mostly on non cash charges (impairment goodwill). Cash position at $7.4bn, gross margin up from 26.3% to 29.7%
Suspend dividend payment, will implement more cost cutting for about $1.5bn Sees Q1 EPS loss $0.10-0.12. Techs
rose: Microsoft +3.76 %, Hewlett-Packard +4.15 %, Dell +4.94 % with the exception of SanDisk -23.23 %.
Semiconductors rose as well: Texas Instruments +2.10 %, Intel +0.73 %, Broadcom +2.19 %, Micron Technology
+4.44 %. Oil companies (ExxonMobil +1.86 %, Chevron +1.92 %, ConocoPhilips +1.14 %), oil services (Baker
Hughes +1.62 %, Nabors +3.35 %), oil refiners (Sunoco +3.40 %, Valero +2.66 %) were up such as basic resources:
Freeport McMoran +2.36 %, US Steel +2.98 %, Nucor +5.47 %, Alcoa +4.55 %. Retailers were upbeat: Best Buy
+4.65 %, Nordstrom +5.19 %, Family Dollar +4.99 %, Target +6.32 %, Wal Mart +2.66 %. Hotels & leisure were
mixed: Las Vegas Sands -7.09 %, Marriott +4.17 %, Starwood +2.29 %. Dow Chemical’s (+2.71 %) sales declined
23% at $10.9bn ($13.0bn exp.), volume -17%, down in all segments. Net loss at -$1.55bn ($472m gain n-1) with
$978m charges.
Treasury prices fell on Tuesday, pushing the yields on longer-dated debt higher, as investors monitored progress on
the economic-stimulus bill before Congress and braced for increased issuance of government securities. Also on bond
traders' radar screens, the Treasury Department will announce on Wednesday the sizes and terms of its quarterly
refunding auctions scheduled for next week. Bond yields remained higher after the National Association of Realtors
said the number of new sales contracts on existing homes jumped a seasonally adjusted 6.3% in December. The
government said on Monday it expects to borrow $493 billion in the current quarter, 25% more than the amount
* +,- estimated three months ago. Separately, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would extend five of its liquidity
%&'(#) programs for an extra six months, citing "continuing substantial strains in many financial markets." The programs
were scheduled to end on April 30.
The central bank extended through October its Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity
Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit
Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility.
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.94 %, +5 bps, 5-year rate at 1.88 %, +12 bps, 10-year rate at 2.86 %, +12 bps, 30-year
rate at 3.64 %, +15 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread was decreased to -48 bps. /JFV
Japan’s markets rallied for a three day drop of 213.43 pts or 2.7 % to close at 8,038.94 in Tokyo. The market was
led up by an unexpected gain in U.S. home resale as a slight sign of optimism for the outlook of the world’s biggest
economy which could increase its demand for materials. Car sector went up ( Suzuki+10.10%, Nissan +7.46%) and
)"%, !"#$
Honda Motor soared 6.3% after the U.S. Senate approved a plan to offer tax breaks for new car buyers. Component
%&'(#) sector went up (CSK Holding +8.26%,TDK+6.48%,NEC+6.20%) but NTT went down of 1.97%, electronic sector went
up( Olympus and Sharp both at +4.99%,Pioneer +4.40%)and oil sector skyrocketed , INPEX jumped 7.3% after
crude rose a second day./JB
Oil prices rose Tuesday, rebounding from a two-week low as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
carried out its production cuts and as data showed sales of existing homes jumped in the U.S. The WTI climbed 1.75
". % at $40.78 a barrek while the Brent lost 3.10 % at $43.93 a barrel. The future one months were slightly down 0.12 %
at $40.73 a barrel this morning. /LC
Although the ECB is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates tomorrow, speculation about further rate cuts will
+&(/ persist. Anyway the euro bounced back up vs. the dollar and euro.
(1.3066 EUR/USD vs. 1.2833 yesterday morning, 116.99 EUR/JPY vs. 114.88, 89.54 USD/JPY vs. 89.50). /JFV

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 Europe America Asia
Indices 3/2/09 % Chg Indices 3/2/09 % Chg Indices 4/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2245 +2,10% DJIA 8078 +1,78% Nikkei 8039 +2,73%
DJ 600 190 +1,86% S&P 500 839 +1,58% Topix 793 +2,45%
FTSE 100 4164 +2,13% NASDAQ 1516 +1,46% Hong Kong 13087 +2,41%
DAX (XETRA) 4375 +2,43% TSX 8629 +0,04% Singapore 1723 +0,53%
CAC 40 2982 +1,79% Bolsa (Mexico) 19630 +0,33% South Korea 1195 +2,77%
AEX (Pays Bas) 251 +1,98% Bovespa (Br.) 39747 +2,79% Thailand 435 +0,92%
SMI (Suisse) 5218 +0,98% Merval (Argent.) 1072 +1,37% Indonesia 1317 +0,94%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 18617 +1,26% IPSA (Chili) 12243 +0,33% Taiwan 4390 +0,39%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8362 +1,56% IGBVL (Pérou) 6768 -0,64% China 2108 +2,28%
BVL (Portugal) 2106 +0,43% India 9287 +1,50%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
7,33
TELECOM ITALIA SPA INTESA SANPAOLO -2,61 6,37
MERCK & CO. INC. -12,20 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL DOWA HOLDINGS CO11,11
LTD -7,31
PANASONIC ELECTRIC WORK
6,51
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED
BNP PARIBAS -2,48 ALCOA INC 4,55 AMERICAN EXPRESS-5,24
CO SUMITOMO METAL 10,13 SHIONOGI & CO LTD-4,83
MINING CO LTD
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
5,47
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SA DEUTSCHE BOERSE-2,11
AG HEWLETT-PACKARD4,16
CO CITIGROUP INC -5,21 10,10
SUZUKI MOTOR CORP ASAHI BREWERIES -3,95
LTD
5,41
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG VINCI SA -0,36 MICROSOFT CORP 3,76 JPMORGAN CHASE -4,56
& CO KURARAY CO LTD 9,60 JAPAN TOBACCO INC-3,28
ING GROEP NV-CVA 5,28 3,17
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC GENERAL ELECTRIC-2,15
CO 9,57
ASAHI GLASS CO LTD AJINOMOTO CO INC-2,58

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 0
ACERINOX : Nisshin Steel, Japan's 5th-biggest steelmaker raised its stake in Acerinox to 15% from 11.3%, spending
$145 m
VODAFONE : AT&T is among the bidders for Verizon Wireless' $3 bn in wireless assets it must divest as part of its buy
of Alltel (WSJ)
VINCI : Q4 revenue €8.8bn (9.08bn exp) / Order book of €23.2 bn, up 8% over 12 months / Entering 2009 with
confidence and heightened vigilance but did not provide guidance for 2009
ALCATEL : Q4 revenue €4.95bn (4.90bn exp) / Adj. Operating €297m (270m exp) / Q4 operating FCF €658m, after a
negative first 9 months, thanks to cost-cutting + modest level of investment / Net debt €389m (400m e) / Q4 writedown
€3.91bn / Outlook unchanged
EADS : Saudi Arabia is in the final stage of discussing a contract with EADS for securing Saudi Arabia's borders / The
contract is worth between €1 bn and €1.5 bn (Les Echos)
GDF Suez could announce a partnership with IBERDROLA to help renovate the U.K. nuclear-power market (La Tribune)
SAP is expected to unveil today the biggest upgrade to its business software line in almost three years
AEGIS : Apax Partners and GfK are circling Synovate, the market research arm of Aegis (Daily Telegraph)
SANTANDER : Sovereign Bancorp swung to a Q4 profit (EPS $0.13) despite heavy credit losses ($1.2bn) / $21.5bn of
liquidity Dec. 31
ING is selling a $1.42 bn chunk of its ownership stake in ING Canada
DEXIA will sell its Australian subsidiary and the unit's $1.29 bn project finance and infrastructure loan book (banking
sources)
UBS held preliminary talks with Wells Fargo & Wachovia Securities about a JV of their NorthAm wealth management biz
(Reuters)
BNP : CEO said (after SOCGEN yesterday) cutting the dividend would send an extremely bad signal to shareholders /
He added that if BNP maintained the same payout ratio for 2008 as in 2007, this would be equivalent to a 30% cut in
the dividend…
MUNICH RE : Q4 gross premiums €9.7bn (€9.3bn est) / Q4 CR 97.7% (In line) / Confirms to propose div of €5.50 for
2008 / equity exposure was again significantly reduced in Q4 to 3.6% (30 Sept. : 9.3%) / January renewals saw stable or
increased prices market-wide
INFINEON : Qimonda would have attracted the interest of several potential buyers, not all of which are based in Asia
(FAZ)
AREVA could build up to 6 new generation EPR reactors in India with Nuclear Power Corp / Its CEO is in India today
(Les Echos)
FIAT : The Italian government will approve a major aid package for the car industry on Friday (Development Minister)
BSKYB won the right to show 4 of the 6 packages of English Premier League live soccer matches for the 3 years
starting in 2010
JANUARY US CAR SALES (-39.7%) : BMW -18.7% / VOW -19.4% / NISSAN -32.4% / TOYOTA -34.4% / PORSCHE -
38.6%

METLIFE: Q4 Revenue $13.96bn ($12.51bn est.) / EPS $0.19 ($0.14 est.) / Book value at end Q4 $27.33 per diluted
common share

ROCHE : FY sales SFR45.62 bn, in line / Pharma sales SFR 35.96 bn (36.17 bn exp) / Operating SFR13.9bn (14.5bn
exp) /Proposes 2008 dividend of SFR 5 per share (4.94 exp) / Expects above market growth in both divisions in 2009
BHP BILITON : H1 sales US$29.8bn (23.2bn exp) / Profit before exceptionals US$6.1 bn (6.78bn exp) / H1 dividend
41 cents vs 29 cents last year / Sees commodity price weakness to persist ST, demand for products to fall MT but
developing world to drive demand LT
ELECTROLUX : Q4 sales SEK 28.66bn (28.8bn exp) / Pre-tax loss SEK530m (-660m exp) / Took a SEK1.1bn charge
in 4Q for cost-reduction measures / No dividend for 2008 / Sees no market improvement in short term / No
operating guidance for 2009
ACCIONA & ENEL see a 40% difference in their valuation of Endesa's renewable assets, key to agreeing an early split
from their partnership in the Spanish utility (Cinco Dias)
GAS NATURAL will issue 1 new share for every old 2 shares (223.9 m new shares) to raise the €3.5 bn it needs to help
finance the purchase of Union Fenosa / EGM on March 10 to approve capital hike / The offer would value each new
share at €15.6 (Close €18.61)
SWISS RE : The Swiss bourse has launched an investigation against Swiss Re in connection with information given to
investors & analysts, as well as articles in the press in July 2008 in relation to risk exposures…
JANUARY US CAR SALES (-39.7%) : CHRYSLER -56.5% / GM -50.9% / MERCEDES -45.1% / FORD -42.6%

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H&M RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY UBS
LONMIN RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY UBS
METRO RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERPERFORM BY BANK OF AMERICA
FIAT ADDED TO EUROPE 1 LIST BY MERILL LYNCH
SCANIA RAISED TO TO HOLD FROM SELL BY CITIGROUP
REED ELSEVIER RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM EQUAL WEIGHT BY MORGAN STANLEY

GAMESA CUT TO EQUAL WEIGHT BY MORGAN STANLEY

VESTAS WIND CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM EQUAL WEIGHT BY MORGAN STANLEY
PORSCHE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM FROMNEUTRAL BY BANK OF AMERICA
SWISSCOM CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY BY UBS
BIERDORFCUT TO HOLD FROM BUY DEUTSCHE BANK

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Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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