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Afghanistan
Week 44 30 October 2012

Review

Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

This document provides an overview of developments in Afghanistan from 23 29 October 2012, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org/cmo/afg.

Highlighted Topics

Clicking the links in this list will take you to the appropriate section.

Many Afghans report being unable to purchase key goods during Eid al-Adha. Iran bans key goods from entering western Afghanistan. Violence against women has shown a remarkable increase from previous months. Iranians reportedly making plans to increase their influence in Afghanistan. Large IED detonates outside a mosque in Faryab and kills forty. Violence in the areas where security has been transferred to ANSF has decreased. Afghan officials call on security forces to stop illegal export of gas to Pakistan. Local officials show concerns on government taking over PRTs development role.

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Economic Development

Steven A. Zyck [email protected]

CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO or ISAF policies or positions of any other organisation.
The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations.

id al-Adha, the Islamic festival of sacrifice, which began on 26 October highlighted economic challenges facing Afghanistan, according to The News. Rising food prices have led some Afghans to go without traditional foods and gifts during this holiday, in which charity, gifts and feasts play a key role. Zamari, a resident of Kabul, told The News: I come to bazaar for shopping, but everything costs higher in comparison to last years Eid alAdah [sic] festival. I cannot afford to buy new clothes and shoes for my children. Wadsam reports that high prices have led several Afghan families to jointly purchase a single animal to kill as part of a group sacrifice during the holiday. The problem is not limited to Afghan consumers; traders say that many of their goods are going un-sold this year. Some blame the Afghan government for doing too little to control prices, increase the value of the local currency and ensure that all Afghans are able to celebrate Eid al-Adha. The regional head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries (ACCI) in western Afghanistan, Sad Khatibi, told Pajhwok Afghan News that Iran had stopped exporting flour, sugar, detergents, petrochemicals and potentially dozens of other items to Afghanistan. The cessation of exports has lasted at least two weeks thus far. Mir Mohammad Yaqub Mashof, the head of the Herat Industrialists Union, says that businesses, including 200 firms in the Herat industrial park, are no longer able to obtain raw materials from neighbouring Iran. Traders say Afghans are no longer able to procure as many as 67 items, including construction materials, motorbikes, oil, beverages, power cables, food items, kitchen tools and others, from Iran. Wadsam says the export ban is a sign that international sanctions against Iran, which are tied to its nuclear programme, have placed significant stress on the Iranian economy. Iran is facing increasing scarcity and increasing prices for basic commodities at home. The first meeting of the Afghan governments High Economic Council was held on 24 October, reports Wadsam. The meeting included leading officials and experts on the Afghan

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economy, including the ministers of finance, economy, commerce and industries and energy and water plus the National Security Advisor, the Central Bank governor and representatives of the ACCI and the Afghan Industrialist Union. University economics professors were also involved in the meeting, which was chaired by President Hamid Karzai. A number of agreements were reached at the meeting: (i) government entities should be obliged to purchase local products wherever feasible in order to support Afghan industry; (ii) Afghan National Army uniforms should be procured from an Afghan company which produces the goods inside Afghanistan; and (iii) responsibility for industrial parks should be transferred from the Ministry of Commerce and Industries to the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency. Additional media outlets highlighted the difficulties the Afghan economy may face in the coming years. According to The Economist, a decline in international spending is already beginning to affect parts of Afghanistan. While policymakers and analysts put a great deal of attention to the transition in 2014, foreign forces and international actors are already beginning to reduce their presence and, correspondingly, their spending in several parts of the country. The effects of this international spending slowdown was felt particularly strongly in Kandahar and Helmand provinces, which had witnessed a rise in foreign spending tied to the American troop surge there. Other cities are also experiencing a slowdown. In Kabul, housing prices have declined by thirty per cent, and rental fees for large properties are half of what they had been at their peak. Jobs with international organisations, private contractors and nongovernmental organisations are becoming increasingly scarce. Reuters says the closing of several Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) has exacerbated the sorts of economic concerns highlighted above. Four PRTs closed in the past month, bringing the total to 22, and another 3are slated to close by mid-2013. Some of the closures have been long planned, but others are relatively more abrupt. For instance, the PRT in Paktiya province had planned to remain in place until December 2014, but its commander recently announced it would be pulling up stakes in June 2013 given that the government is now ready to take on service delivery and other functions previously enabled by the PRT. In agricultural news, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says that the 2012 wheat harvest in Afghanistan was the second highest in 35 years and that food insecurity is expected to be minimal the remainder of 2012 and into early 2013. However, internally displaced persons and those residing in remote parts of Badakhshan province are still likely to face severe challenges. A number of other economic development stories, which are summarised below, emerged this past week. Two Afghans with banking experience in the United States, Ahmad Bassam and Sanzar Kakar, are proposing the establishment of an Afghan stock exchange, according to Time Magazine. The two say they are seeking technological support from Nasdaq, an American exchange. Basam stated: Once the foreign forces withdraw, the country will still need an economy. And we want to help bring the structures in place that will get us away from donor dependence. Kazakhstans ambassador to Afghanistan, Agybai Smagulov, said that his country is prepared to invest in infrastructure and natural resource projects in and around Herat in western Afghanistan, according to Wadsam. Kazakhstan is particularly interested in the extraction of coal, copper and fuel from Herat. Farmers in Paktika province tell Wadsam they would like to switch from growing poppies to growing saffron. They are calling on the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock to provide saffron seeds and training in order to enable them to do so.

Governance & Rule of Law

Stefanie Nijssen [email protected]

he Pakistani government is reportedly increasing efforts to reach out to non-Pashtun political leaders in Afghanistan, a significant policy shift that could prove vital to any peace deal, reports the Associated Press (AP). The new approach is significant, according to the article, since many experts agree that there are elements within the Pakistani government who view the Pashtun-dominated Taliban as an effective tool in countering Indian influence within the region. However, Zahid Hussain, who has written extensively about the Pakistani Taliban, states that: A Taliban victory on the other side of the border would give a huge boost to domestic militants fighting the Pakistani state. Pakistan first publicised its overtures to non-Pashtuns in Afghanistan in February when Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar met with a range of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara leaders during a visit in Kabul. Experts have expressed doubt that the foreign ministry would have pushed ahead without the support of the military. In a message released on the eve of Eid al-Adha, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar said the insurgent group would only negotiate with the US-led coalition in Afghanistan through its recently-created political office, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. The Taliban announced earlier this year that they were opening a political office in Qatar in order to facilitate peace talks, which subsequently broke down. According to Michael Semple, a former UN and EU diplomat who spoke with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Taliban leaders are not in agreement regarding negotiations, though hard-liners who want to continue fighting appear to be winning out over those who favour a peace agreement. The Iranian government is reportedly making plans to increase its influence in Afghanistan by funding aid projects and expanding intelligence networks, US and Afghan officials tell The Wall Street Journal. While the US still spends significantly more money in Afghanistan, the Iranian government is gaining significant influence in the country through its extensive involvement in grass-roots programmes and through the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee. A senior Afghan official had the following to say: Iran is the real influence here. With one snap of their fingers, they can mobilize 20,000 Afghans. [] This is much more dangerous than the suicide

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bombers coming from Pakistan. At least you can see them and fight them. But you cant as easily see and fight Irans political and cultural influence. The UK House of Commons international development committee has stated that the British government should revise its ambitious assistance programme to Afghanistan by setting more modest aid targets, states BBC News. In its report, the committee questioned whether creating a viable state was achievable at all. However, the report also noted that it was crucially important not to abandon the people of Afghanistan, particularly women. The committee said past pledges to womens rights had not been followed by practical action and that status of women after 2014 would be the litmus test of whether the UK had improved the lives of Afghans. Afghanistans Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) says that violence against women has shown a remarkable increase from previous months, reports Tolo News. AIHRC Womens Rights Coordinator Latifa Sultani said 550 cases of violence against women were recorded, predominantly in more rural parts of the country. Staff at the Afghan Womens Network (AWN) also expressed concern over the statistics and said they are working hard to launch an awareness programme on womens rights. This comes as several related stories on violence against women were reported this week. For instance, in Nimroz province a man accused of attempting to rape his daughter has been detained by police, officials tell Tolo News. Meanwhile, a man in Balkh province has been arrested after beheading his wife, tells Ariana News. Human trafficking is thriving in Afghanistan with thousands of girls and boys sold and sent to neighbouring countries each year, mostly to Pakistan, reports Deutsche Welle. Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch says many poor Afghan and Pakistani women are forced into the sex trade by their families due to poverty and debt accrued by drug addiction. Addressing the exploitation remains a difficult task since weak border security allows criminals to easily smuggle and traffic goods and people. Moreover, all forms of prostitution are illegal in Afghanistan and can have dire consequences. Cleric Nek Mohammad, who works for a Nangarhar court and offers consultations on Islamic law, said: At least four people have to bear witness to the crime. And should the prostitute or the person who buys her be married, his or her spouse will have to be stoned. If there are no married people involved, then they receive lashings. A number of traders and freight vehicle drivers have complained that the Afghan border police have established unnecessary checkpoints along Torkham highway where they violently extort money, reports Ariana News. The drivers claims were reportedly corroborated by Ariana TV which recorded video footage showing border police officers severely beating a driver. Nangarhar governor Gull Agha Sherzai said these police forces have links with smugglers and are heavily corrupt. Meanwhile, Tolo News reports that the revenues gained through customs offices in Nangarhar province have increased 22% in the past six months compared to the same period last year. Local officials said the revenue increase was the result of a tougher line on corruption and on goods smuggling from across the border with Pakistan. A number of other articles related to governance and rule of law appeared this past week, including those summarised below. The Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan has released its first comprehensive observation report on the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of parliament), writes Ariana News. The report, which examines lawmakers performance over the past six months, states that chronic absences in parliamentary sessions have made the body less effective in its performance. As a result many laws, such as the electoral reform law, have not been brought to a vote. A citizen information centre, the first of its kind in Afghanistan, was inaugurated in Kabul on 23 October, states Pajhwok. A USfunded initiative, the centre will allow citizens access to information regarding municipal services, regulations and administrative procedures. The increase in Kabuls population from 1.5 million to almost 6 million residents in the past decade has strained the municipalitys ability to deliver services. The level of physical and verbal violence by government officials and security forces against journalists has increased over the past year in Takhar province, according to Ariana News. Syed Yaseen Dehzad, head of Takhar Journalists Council said Last year two beatings and five cases of severe verbal abuse were recorded against the reporters but so far this year, five cases of beatings and fourteen cases of severe verbal abuse have been registered in the province. Local courts in the north of Afghanistan are reportedly releasing prisoners, despite the existence of strong evidence corroborating their involvement in corruption, head of the regional anti-corruption office Shamsullah Javed told Ariana News. Javed stated that he would resign from his post if he failed to eliminate corruption from Balkh customs before March 2013. The head of the Balkh customs department rejected any charge of corruption.

Security & Force Protection

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n Friday, 26 October, a large suicide improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated outside a mosque in Faryab province, reports Khaama Press. The detonation occurred while people were gathering after Eid al-Adha prayers outside the mosque in Maimana City. While exact casualty numbers vary by media source, all reports indicate that at least forty people were killed and more than fifty additional people were injured. According to Pajhwok Afghan News, Major Mohammed Naeem, a local police official, stated that the attacker detonated his explosives among security forces as the police chief and other security officials were leaving the mosque. It appears from victim statements that the attacker was wearing a police uniform. Due to lack of local medical facilities, many of the more seriously injured victims had to be airlifted via helicopter to Balkh province. Afghan President Hamid 30 October 2012 Page 3

Karzai, along with leaders from the international community, strongly condemned the attack. US State Department spokeswoman Ambassador Victoria Nuland stated: We obviously condemn this bombing and this attack on innocent worshippers, which further demonstrates the insurgents lack of respect for religion, for faith, and its disregard for the safety and security of the Afghan people. On Sunday, President Karzai visited the attack site, informs Pajhwok. During a gathering at the governors office he said: The act was carried out by the enemies of Islam and Afghanistan. President Karzai assured the victims families that the Afghan government would assist them in recovering by providing land and free education for the children of victims. In similar news, security forces were able to disrupt planned suicide bombings on at least two occasions during the course of the last week. According to Khaama Press, on the same day as the deadly attacks in Faryab, Afghan security forces identified and arrested an individual planning a suicide bomb attack in Baghlan. His target was reportedly the provincial security chief. On Sunday, 27 October, authorities in Uruzgan province shot and killed a suspected suicide bomber before he was able to detonate his explosives. According to Pajhwok, local police chief General Ewaz Mohammad Nazari reported that large number of missiles were fired into the Dangam district of Kunar province by the Pakistani Army within 24 hours. The number of missiles fired range from 72-89 and resulted in three civilians being wounded. Local residents angrily voiced their frustration that the Afghan government has been unable to address the issue of cross border missile strikes. Pakistani Interior Minister Rahman Malik made allegations that Pakistani Taliban commander Mullah Fazlullah, who was said to have ordered the killing of a 14-year-old girl in Pakistan last week, is hiding in Kunar. Afghan intelligence officials have denied this claim. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) spokesman Brigadier General Gunter Katz stated that violence in the areas of Afghanistan that have been transferred to Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), has decreased, reports Tolo News. Kanz said: We have a success in our campaign; the transition process is well on the track, all the areas where transition is taking place have a clear decrease of violence, you can actually have the statistics. Katz went on to say that while the threats from insurgents are still strong, they are under pressure from security forces. In other security-related news from Afghanistan and its region: A man wearing an Afghan National Police uniform shot and killed two US soldiers in Uruzgan, reports Khaama Press. Two individuals who were assembling and placing IEDs in Uruzgan province were killed when their explosives detonated prematurely, reports Pajhwok; had the bombs been placed successfully they could have detonated in an area where hundreds of people gather for picnics during the Eid holiday. During his Eid al-Adha message, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, told his followers they should work to infiltrate the ANSF in an effort to target foreign soldiers using insider attacks, Tolo News highlights. He further stated that until foreign forces leave and the Taliban has taken over the Afghan government, there will be no peace or prosperity. Five civilians traveling on a bus in Ghazni province were shot dead by Taliban gunmen, according to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. Officials report that the Taliban militants stopped the bus, removed the five passengers, all belonging to the Hazara ethnic minority, and shot them on site.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure

Rainer Gonzalez [email protected]

angladesh is once again showing interest in taking part in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, says Gulf Times. Kakageldy Abdullaev, the acting Turkmen Minister of Oil and Gas Industry and Mineral Resources, stated: There was a request from Bangladesh to join the project. We require official note for this which will be considered by all the four governments of TAPI project. Meanwhile, the four countries already signed on to the TAPI initiative are joining efforts with the Asian Development Bank to build a consortium to attract investors. In related news, the Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI) has called on national security agencies to prevent the illegal transfer of gas to Pakistan, reports Wadsam. Afghanistan imports a substantial amount of gas from countries such as Russia, Turkmenistan and Iraq. The subsequent illegal export of gas to Pakistan, however, drives up energy prices in Afghanistan. While Kabul residents have consistently complained about the high gas cost, government officials argue that this is due to the high energy prices in the international markets and the smuggling of gas from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries has said that the illegal trade might involve security officials. Some local officials have started to show concern about the governments inability to take over the development activities that are currently under control of the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), reviews an AlertNet article. PRTs have been a key component of the winning hearts and minds strategy of NATO and US-led forces in Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of the international troops scheduled for 2014, the responsibility and control of PRTs are now being transferred to Afghan authorities. The number of projects in Paktiya fell from 114 (2010) to 3 (2012). However, some provincial and district governors say that it is too soon. Naiz Mohammad Khalil, governor of the Sayid Karam district in Paktiya states: We need more mentors, we need them to stay for longer to train us more. On the other hand, PRT Commander US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel John Morse says that when the PRT was established, We were the only ones that were delivering the basic services to the people. Thats important at the time when there was no one doing that, but now as the Afghan government stands up and starts to deliver basic services, the PRT can be looked (at) negative30 October 2012 Page 4

ly, so we cant do that any longer. According to Morse, the province is starting to stand on its own though the insufficient funding from Kabul remains an issue. There have been several reports related to Afghanistans hydropower sector this past week. Officials from the Ministry of Energy and Water (MoEW) recognise that donors are not interested in continuing funding dams in Afghanistan, reports Wadsam. Afghan Minister of Energy and Water Mohammad Ismail Khan complained that donors have focused too much on funding roads and have ignored the potential of hydroelectric energy in Afghanistan which currently imports energy from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan at a steep cost. Recently the government surveyed more than 500 dams in the country and presented plans to build 7 major hydroelectric dams for which they are seeking funding. This comes as India has increased the budget for the construction of the Salma Dam in Herat province from USD 80 million to USD 120 million, highlights Wadsam. Salma Dam has been a longstanding project since 2006, when it was initiated with the financial and technical support of India. According to officials, slow progress of the project is related to security, financial and technical obstacles. Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya said that the project is seventy per cent complete and, if there are no further security or technical issues, it should be completed the next year.

Humanitarian Update Afghan officials report that around 200,000 Afghan refugees have returned from Iran during the last six months, says Mehr News Agency. The main reasons behind the return to Afghanistan are the lack of documentation, the plummeting of the Iranian rial, lack of employment, high prices of commodities and schools restriction to register Afghan children. Government and non-governmental organisations are starting to make preparations for the coming winter in order to avoid another humanitarian crisis, reports IRIN. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) notes that almost 450,000 internally displaced persons live in informal settlements and slums surrounding Kabul. There are several agencies, including the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Afghan National Disaster Management Authority, which are collecting data on the size and characteristics of the settlements in order to plan adequately. The government has reportedly transferred USD 1.6 million to each of the provinces to deal with potential emergency situations during the winter. In addition, the Afghan Red Crescent Society has established four disaster response units consisting of some 3,300 volunteers. OCHA says thirteen provinces are at a high or very high risk of experiencing an extreme winter.

Meanwhile, Darunta Dam in Nangarhar province is showing signs of serious structural deterioration, Environment News Services reports. The dam, which was built on Kabul River in 1964, provides electricity and regulates water flow. Nowadays, the dam is only producing electricity at a third of its operational capacity. Works to refurbish the turbines were launched but during the last two years, four major cracks have been found in the structure of the dam. Officials from the MoEW say that remedial work is urgently needed but there is no money to pay for it. Finally, the United States Army Corps of Engineers is seeking bids for the irrigation tunnel works at the Kajaki Dam, another longstanding hydroelectric project, announces HydroWorld. The cost of the new irrigation tunnel is estimated between USD 25 and 100 million. A number of other social and strategic infrastructure issues emerged this past week, including those summarised below. Residents from various neighbourhoods in Kabul city have complained about the poor condition of the roads, reports Wadsam. Residents claim that the municipality intentionally keeps roads in the city in bad shape to get the attention of the international community for more aid. Mohammad Sidiq Patman, Deputy Minister of Education, has announced the ministry will build 1,000 apartments for teachers, highlights Wadsam. The houses will be completed within two years in Kabul province. Daud Shah Saba, Herat governor, has requested Iranian officials to expedite work on the Herat-Khwaf railway, reports Wadsam. The project was launched in 2007 and it was due to be completed in 2009 but has been postponed several times. With this new infrastructure, it is estimated that Afghanistan will earn between USD 200 and USD 300 million in additional trade revenue each year. Officials from the MoEW have announced the construction of a new power station in the Khulm district of Balkh province, says Wadsam. The project will cost USD 9 million and will be completed in two years.

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Recent Readings & Resources Afghanistan Food Security Outlook: October 2012 to March 2013, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), 26 October 2012. Afghanistan: Development progress and prospects after 2014, House of Commons International Development Committee, United Kingdom, 25 October 2012. Mine Action Programme of Afghanistan: August/September 2012 Newsletter, Mine Action Coordination Centre of Afghanistan, October 2012. Promoting womens rights in Afghanistan: a call for less aid and more politics. Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, October 2012 by Torunn Wimpelmann. Afghanistan: Development progress and prospects after 2014, UK House of Commons International Development Committee, 25 October 2012. Humanitarian Bulletin: September 2012, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, October 2012.

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