World Development, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 165-186,1992. Printed in Great Britain.

0305-750X/92 $5.00 + 0.00 0 1992 Pergamon Press plc

Technological

Capabilities and Industrialization

Institute of Economics and Statistics, Oxford

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper is a review of the nature of technological activity in developing countries and the case for government interventions to strengthen technological, and, through it, industrial development. Much of the traditional literature, theoretical and empirical, has neglected the need for, and production of, technological activity in developing countries. Simple neoclassical writing assumes the problem away. In the highly simplified models used in trade theory, for instance, technology is taken to be freely available to all countries and, within countries, to all firms. Countries simply settle on appropriate level of capital/labor intensity in accordance to their factor price ratios, determined by their relative endowments of physical capital and labor. Firms in a given industry are all on the same production function and select their techniques with reference to relative factor price ratio, shifting costlessly along the function as this ratio changes. To the extent that technological lags are admitted, developing countries are taken to receive all relevant improvements from developed country innovators: there is no problem in assimilating the transferred technology in the developing country; there are no adaptations required, since alternatives are available for all factor prices; all firms remain equally efficient; firm-specific learning or technical effort are unnecessary and irrelevant; and so on (Nelson, 1987). These traditional approaches to technology also assume that innovation (movements of the production function rather than along it) is a completely distinct activity from gaining mastery of technology or adapting it to different condi165

tions (since the only admissible countrywise differences in theory are capital/labor ratios, adaptations are necessarily restricted to movements along the function). Innovative activity is an investment in something unrelated to production. In theoretical modeling, such investment is guided by a known innovation possibility frontier, with marginal returns equalized with other returns (Nelson, 1981). In the developing country context, it is assumed that major innovations all occur in the advanced industrial countries. Developing countries select and costlessly apply those innovations that are useful or appropriate. As the general level of capital accumulation (and skills) rises, more capital-intensive (or complex) technologies become economical these are also bought from the international technology shelf. The general thrust of conventional approaches is to minimize, not just the role of technological activity in developing countries, but also the need for policies to support, protect and induce such activity (Pack and Westphal, 1986). What are now termed neoclassical approaches to development (associated with Balassa, Krueger and others) tend to confine themselves to prescrip-

*The ideas contained in this paper have evolved over an extended period and have benefited from discussions with numerous people. I would like to thank, in particular, Carl Dahlman, Ashoka Mody, Henry Ergas, Farrokh Najmabadi, Ganesh Wignaraja and Simon Teitel. Two anonymous referees made very useful suggestions, for which I am grateful. The responsibility for the paper, of course, is ultimately mine.

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tions such as get prices right, reduce or eliminate protection or free international flows of capital and technology and cut back on government intervention in industrial activity. Where more moderate neoclassicals admit the need for interventions in industry, they favor neutral (or functional) rather than selective interventions (i.e., those that support the functioning of markets, such as education or research and development, rather than those that promote some industries or technologies over others). These approaches disregard the peculiar nature and costs of technological learning in specific activities, the externalities it generates and the complementarities it enjoys, which may lead to market failures and may call for a more selective approach to policy than conventional theory admits (Lall, 1991). Yet selective interventions can be justified within the neoclassical framework if such sources of market failure are taken into account. In contrast to the analyses just mentioned, a number of unconventional approaches to the issues of technology in developing countries have appeared in the past decade. These have assigned a central role to indigenous technological effort in mastering new technologies, adapting them to local conditions, improving upon them, diffusing them within the economy and exploiting them overseas by manufactured export growth and diversification and by exporting technologies themselves. They can be framed in neoclassical terms but their emphasis is often on the reasons that markets are not efficient. This paper provides a brief review of these approaches. It draws out the industrial policy implications that arise from the specific characteristics of technological development, and illustrates their relevance with reference to the experience of the newly industrializing countries (NICs) of East Asia and other, less spectacularly successful countries. Section 2 deals with firm-level technology, Section 3 with national capabilities and Section 4 with the experience of selected developing countries. Section 5 draws some conclusions and policy implications.

2. FIRM-LEVEL TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES (FTC) The microlevel analysis of technology in developing countries has drawn inspiration from the evolutionary theories developed by Nelson and Winter (1982), and explained in Nelson (1981, 1987) and Dosi (1988). The starting point of these theories is that firms cannot be taken to operate on a common production function.

Technological knowledge is not shared equally among firms, nor is it easily imitated by or transferred across firms. Transfer necessarily requires learning because technologies are tacit, and their underlying principles are not always clearly understood. Thus, simply to gain mastery of a new technology requires skills, effort and investment by the receiving firm, and the extent of mastery achieved is uncertain and necessarily varies by firm according to these inputs. Furthermore, firms have more knowledge of their own technology, less about similar technologies of other firms and very little about dissimilar alternatives, even in the same industry. They operate, in other words, not on a production function but at a point, and their technical progress, building upon their own efforts, experience and skills, is (to varying degrees) localized around that point (Atkinson and Stiglitz, 1969). The extent to which firm-level differences in technological effort and mastery occur may vary by industry, by size of firm or market,. by level of development or by trade/industrial strategies pursued. There is little doubt that as a description of reality, in developed or less developed countries, the evolutionary approach is far more plausible than the production function approach. As Dosi (1988) puts it, evolutionary theories can explain the permanent existence of asymmetries among firms, in terms of their process technologies and quality of output (p. 1155). Scale economies and vintage differences in capital goods explain part of this asymmetry, but they are also the different innovative capabilities, that is, different degrees of technology accumulation and different efficiencies in the innovative search process (p. 1156). Once firm-level technological change is understood as a continuous process to absorb or create technical knowledge, determined partly by external inputs and partly by past accumulation of skills and knowledge, it is evident that innovation can be defined much more broadly to cover all types of search and improvement effort. From the firms point of view, there is little difference in essence between efforts to improve technological mastery, to adapt technology to new conditions, to improve it slightly or to improve it very significantly - though in terms of detailed strategies, degrees of risk and potential rewards these efforts will certainly be different. There are various ways to categorize firm-level technological capabilities (FTC). Drawing upon Katz (1984, 1987), Dahlman, Ross-Larson and Westphal (1987) and La11 (1987)) Table 1 shows an illustrative matrix of the major technical functions involved. The columns set out the major FICs by function, the rows by degree of complexity or difficulty, as measured by the sort of

Table 1. Illustrative matrix of technological capabilities FUNCTIONAL INVESTMENT PRE INVESTMENT PROJECT EXECUTION PROCESS ENGINEERING PRODUCT ENGINEERING PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING LINKAGES WITHIN ECONOMY

B A

I C

SIMPLE, ROUTINE (Experience based)

Prefeasibility and feasibility studies, site selection, scheduling of investment

Civil construction, ancillary services, equipment erection, commissioning

Debugging, balancing, quality control preventive maintenance, assimilation of process technology

Assimilation of product design, minor adaptation to market needs

Work flow, scheduling, timemotion studies. Inventory control

Local procurement of goods and services, information exchange with suppliers

0 M

ADAPTIVE DUPLICATIVE (Search based)

Equipment stretching, process adaptation and cost saving, licensing new technology

Monitoring productivity, improved coordination Product quality improvement, licensing and assimilating new imported product technology

Technology transfer of local suppliers, coordinated design, S&T links

E I
Basic process design. Equipment design and supply

Search for technology source. Negotiation of contracts. Bargaining suitable terms. Info. systems

Equipment procurement, detailed engineering, training and recruitment of skilled personnel

N C E D

INNOVATIVE RISKY (Research based)

In-house process innovation, basic research

In-house product innovation, basic research

Turnkey capability, cooperative R&D, licensing own technology to others

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activity from which the capability arises. The categorization is necessarily indicative, since it may be difficult to judge a priori whether a particular function is simple or complex (Teitel, 1984). Nor is it meant to show a necessary sequence of learning, though the very nature of technological learning (i.e., accumulated experience of problem solving, aided by external inputs or formal research effort) would seem to dictate that mastery would proceed from simpler to more difficult activities, different firms and different technologies adopt different sequences. This sequence would depend on various factors, described below. The functions set out in Table 1 may not be exhaustive, and not all of them have to be performed for every industrial venture. Even where they are performed, moreover, not all need be undertaken by the firm itself - several specialized services can be brought in from (domestic or foreign) contractors, consultants or other manufacturing firms. Yet there is a basic core of functions in each major category that have to be internalized by the firm to ensure successful commercial operation. If a firm is unable by itself to decide on its investment plans or selection of equipment processes, or to reach minimum levels of operating efficiency, quality control, equipment maintenance or cost improvement, or to adapt its product designs to changing market conditions, or to establish effective linkages with reliable suppliers, it is unlikely to be able to compete effectively in open markets. Moreover, the basic core must grow over time as the firm undertakes more complex tasks. The ability to identify a firms scope for efficient specialization in technological activities, to extend and deepen these with experience and effort, and to draw selectively on others to complement its own capabilities, is the hallmark of a technologically mature firm. Before full maturity is achieved, firms will vary in their mastery of the various functions involved. While this is true of any economy, it is likely that the typical firm in developing countries, with deficiencies in skills and limited experience of manufacturing, will use the same technology less efficiently than its counterpart in developed countries. Scattered evidence confirms that this is in fact that case, and that such differences also exist between more and less advanced developing countries (Pack, 1988). Znvestment capabilities are the skills needed to identify, prepare, obtain technology for, design, construct, equip, staff, and commission a new facility (or expansion). They determine the capital costs of the project, the appropriateness of the scale, product mix, technology and equip-

ment selected, and the understanding gained by the operating firm of the basic technologies involved (which, in turn, affect the efficiency with which it later operates the facility). Production capabilities range from basic skills such as quality control, operation, and maintenance, to more advanced ones such as adaptation, improvement or equipment stretching, to the most demanding ones of research, design, and innovation. They cover both process and product technologies as well as the monitoring and control functions included under industrial engineering. The skills involved determine not only how well given technologies are operated and improved, but also how well in-house efforts are utilized to absorb technologies bought or imitated from other firms (on the significance of research and development for assimilating external innovations see Cohen and Levinthal, 1989). Linkage capabilities are the skills needed to transmit information, skills and technology to, and receive them from, component or raw material suppliers, subcontractors, consultants, service firms, and technology institutions. Such linkages affect not only the productive efficiency of the enterprise (allowing it to specialize more fully) but also the diffusion of technology through the economy and the deepening of the industrial structure, both essential to industrial development. The significance of extramarket linkages in promoting productivity increase is well recognized in the literature on developed countries. (For references see the survey by Cohen and Levitt, 1989, and for an empirical test, Cohen and Levinthal, 1989. The last chapter of Lall, 1985, develops and applies the linkage concept in a development setting.) The emerging empirical literature of FTC in developing countries (apart from the references above, see Dahlman and Westphal, 1982; Enos, forthcoming; Fransman, 1986; Herbert-Copley, 1990; Rath, 1990; Teitel, 1984; Vernon, 1989; Westphal, 1982) has touched on various aspects of the development of FTCs. These need not be reviewed at any length here, but it is worth noting the main influences on the demand for and supply of FICs. On the demand for efforts to built FIG, the most important factors are threefold. First, there is an inherent need for the development of new skills and information simply to get a new technology into production. This necessity operates regardless of policy regime and provides the elemental drive for firms to invest in capability building; the form that capability building takes depends on the nature of the technology (process or batch, simple or complex, large to small scale). Second, apart from this inherent pressure for

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capability acquisition, external factors strongly influence the process. As with any investment decision, the macroeconomic environment, competitive pressures, and the trade regime all affect the perceived returns to FTC development efforts. A stable, high-growth environment is conducive to higher investments in FTC. So is competition, with international competition probably the most potent inducement to skill and technology upgrading. Competition is, however, a double-edged sword, and given the necessary costs of learning, can stifle capability building in newcomers when certain market failures exist. This type of infant industry argument is taken up in the next section. Trade orientation also affects the content and pace of FTC development. The evidence (see Lall, 1987; Amsden, 1989; Kim, 1988) suggests that inward-oriented regimes foster learning to make do with local materials, stretch available equipment, and down-scale plants, while export-oriented regimes foster efforts to reduce production costs, raise quality, introduce new products for world markets and often reduce dependence on (expensive) imported technology. Third, technological change itself, which proceeds continuously in almost all industries in the developed world, stimulates developing country firms to try to keep up. Exposure to competition mediates this incentive, and highly protected firms can delay their upgrading for long periods. Nevertheless, the existence and potential availability of more efficient technologies can create their own incentives to invest in FTC. On the suppry side, the ability of firms to produce new capabilities depends on: the size of firm (where technologies are complex and call for large-scale production, large amounts of skilled labor or intense technological effort and particularly where capital markets are deficient); access to skills from the market; organizational and managerial skills in the firm and its ability to change structures to absorb new methods and technologies (Hoffman, 1989; Katz, 1987); access to external technical information and support (from foreign technology sources, local firms and consultants, and the technology infrastructure of laboratories, testing facilities, standards institutions and so on); and access to appropriate embodied technology, in the form of capital goods, from the best available sources, domestic or foreign. In sum, FTC development is the outcome of investments undertaken by the firm in response to external and internal stimuli, and in interaction with other economic agents, both private and public, local and foreign. Thus, there are factors that are firm-specific (leading to micro-

level differences idiosyncratic mon to given policy regimes, nal structures). which we now

in FTC development and to results) and those that are comcountries (depending on their skill endowments and institutioIt is these common factors to turn.

3. NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES (NTC) us now consider national technological (NTC) in developing countries. National capabilities are not simply the sum of thousands of individual firm-level capabilities developed in isolation. Because of externalities and interlinkages, there is likely to be synergy between individual FTCs. Despite individual idiosyncrasies, there is a common element of response of firms to the policy, market and institutional framework. It makes sense, in other words, to conceive of national differences in technological capabilities. Clearly, countries developing or developed - differ in their ability to utilize or innovate technologies, which manifests itself in their productivity, growth or trade performance. There is little by way of theory which brings together all the factors that may influence these variables (see OECD, 1987; Ergas, 1984, 1986; OTA, 1990; and Fagerberg, 1987, 1988). The analysis of NTC is nevertheless important because of the current dominance of some partial explanations of industrial success, which may lead to misleading policy conclusions (Lall, 1990, 1991). In particular, it is necessary to look again at approaches that, as mentioned in the introduction, trace success to getting prices right and noninterventionist strategies, treating them as both necessary and sufficient conditions. These approaches are based on particular readings of technological capability and the efficiency of markets in developing countries. This section analyzes their validity. The OECD explains long-term differences in the performance of advanced industrial economies thus: Over the longer term, economic growth arises from the interplay of incentives and capabilities. The capabilities define the best that can be achieved; while the incentives guide the use of the capabilities and, indeed stimulate their expansion, renewal or disappearance. In the advanced economies, the capabilities refer primarily to the supplies of human capital, of savings and of the existing capital stock, as well as to the technical and organizational skills required for their use; the incentives originate largely in product markets and are then more or less reflected in markets for factor supplies Let

capabilities

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thereby determining the efficiency with which capabilities are used. Both incentives and capabilities operate within an institutional framework: institutions set rules of the game, as well as directly intervening in the play; they act to alter capabilities and change incentives; and they can modify behaviour by changing attitudes and expectations (OECD, 1987, p. 18). This threepronged approach, involving the interplay of capabilities, incentives and institutions, is a useful way of organizing the numerous factors that influence NTC in developing countries (see Lall, 1990 for a more detailed exposition).

(a) Capabilities At the country level, capabilities can be grouped under three broad headings: physical investment, human capital and technological effort. These three are strongly interlinked in ways that make it difficult to identify their separate contributions to national performance (Nelson, 1981), but they do not always go together. If physical capital is accumulated without the skills or technology needed to operate it efficiently, NTC will not develop adequately; or if formal skills are created but not combined with technological effort, efficiency will not increase dynamically (see Romer, 1990, for a theoretical analysis). Physical investment is in some sense a basic capability, in that plant and equipment are clearly necessary for industry to exist, but it is the efficiency with which capital is utilized that is of greater interest. The ability to muster the financial resources and the embodied technology that make up physical investment (and the need for an efficient financial system to support this) need not be spelled out at any length in this paper. The term human capital is used broadly here to include not just the skills generated by formal education and training, but also those created by on-the-job training and experience of technological activity, and the legacy of inherited skills, attitudes and abilities that aid industrial development. Literacy and primary education are essential for all forms of efficient industrialization, and may be largely sufficient for early industrial efforts utilizing simple technologies (McMahon, 1987). As more sophisticated technologies are adopted, however, the need for more advanced, specialized skills on the part of both workforce and managers emerges (Teitel, 1982). Moreover, the gap between the workforce and engineers has to be reduced to facilitate skill transfer (Mody, 1989a). The quality of formal education, especially of technical training, and the relevance of

the curriculum to changing technical needs, are clearly very important. To the extent that public or private training facilities do not meet the need for such skills, firms have to invest in their own training facilities, but will do so only if mobility is low and their investments yield appropriate benefits (King, 1984); low mobility thus has this benefit, but is offset by the restraint it places on the diffusion of knowledge. Ergas (1984) and OECD (1987) outline the very different systems dealing with these problems in the United States, Germany and Japan, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. The final capability relates to national technological effort. Trained labor and physical capital are only fully productive when combined with efforts by productive enterprises to assimilate and improve upon the relevant technology. As discussed earlier, such effort comprises a broad spectrum of production, design and research work with firms, backed up by a technological infrastructure that provides information, standards, basic scientific knowledge and various facilities too large to be owned by private firms. It is impossible to measure properly such technological effort, but rough proxies are available in the form of technical personnel available for technical tasks, or expenditures on formal research and development (input measures), or innovations, patents and other indicators of technological success (output measures). The interpretation of all such measures is fraught with difficulties (Cohen and Levin, 1989), since not all effort is equally efficiently made, and no measure captures fully the routine engineering work devoted to minor innovation or mastery. Nevertheless, it is evident that different countries devote different levels of effort to technology (on developed countries see OECD, 1987; Ergas, 1984; OTA, 1990; Dertouzos, Lester and Solow, 1989. On developing countries see Teitel, 1987; Lall, 1990; IDB, 1988). Even a crude measure is of some use. Apart from domestic technological effort, the extent and nature of a countrys reliance on foreign technology is also directly relevant to NTC. All countries need to import technology, but different modes of import have different impacts on local technological development. In semi-industrial countries, for instance, a heavy reliance on foreign direct investment (FDI) may become a substitute for domestic effort at the advanced levels shown in Table 1, because FDI is an efficient means to transfer the results of innovation rather than the innovative process itself. The alternative strategy, ri la Japan, of building a strong domestic technological base may therefore entail a selective curtailment of

TECHNOLOGICAL FDI entry, development at least process at certain stages (see below). of the

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(b) Incentives While both physical and human capital are necessary for industrial development, they will not be utilized effectively if the structure of incentives for investment and production is inappropriate. Incentives, arising from market forces, institutional functioning and government policies, affect the pace of accumulation of capital and skills; the types of capital purchased and the kinds of skills learned; and the extent to which existing endowments are exploited in production. In most developing countries, the role of policies assumes great importance, in both positive and negative ways: positive because structural and market failures call for remedial action, negative because interventions can be excessive or misjudged, and even justifiable interventions can be poorly administered. Three broad sets of incentives affect the development of NTC: (i) Macroeconomic incentives Under this heading, we include signals that emanate from GNP growth (rate and stability), price changes, interest rates, exchange rates, credit and foreign exchange availability and similar economic variables, as well as political stability or exogenous shocks (e.g., terms of trade). The impact of growth, stability, sensible balance-of-payments, monetary or fiscal policies, favorable external circumstances, etc. on investment and capability building are obvious and need not be discussed in detail here. (ii) Incentives from competition Competition is, as discussed earlier, the most basic of incentives affecting capability development. Domestic competition is influenced by the size of the industrial sector, its level of development and diversification, and government policies on firm entry, exit, expansion, prices, ownership, small-scale industry and so on. Most developing countries impose constraints on internal competition, to prevent excessive entry (and thus fragmentation) in protected markets, to preserve employment, to promote small firms or public enterprises, to hold down prices, to force industry to locate in backward areas, or to prevent the growth of large firms or the concentration of economic power. Some industrial regulation is clearly necessary in every economy, but high levels of intervention can frustrate or dissipate the development of healthy capabilities, and

prop up unviable enterprises that should die out (see World Bank, 1989, for a brief review of the most common types of competition-retarding policies). International competition from imports, entry of foreign investors or export activity can be an even greater stimulant to healthy technological development than domestic competition, in small or large countries (size of economy does not affect whether enterprises in the country are exposed to such competition). Yet governments place many barriers to such competition, often in a sweeping, irrational and prolonged way that retards technological development, efficiency, export growth and structural change. The recent development literature has analyzed the costs of inward-oriented trade strategies at great length (for a useful review, see the World Bank, 1987b). Most of the conventional arguments are not couched in terms of the impact of trade strategies on technological capabilities, but the implicit assumptions made about technological capability (TC) development are very relevant to the issue. The debate over intervention in trade flows is of long standing (Bhagwati, 1989, has a lucid review). While acknowledging the benefits of market competition, economic theory accepts that interventions in the incentive framework of free trade in the form of infant industry protection or promotion are needed to overcome many (but not all) market failures affecting resource allocation (Westphal, 1982, 1990; Pack and Westphal, 1986; Lall, 1990). It is important to be clear about the correct case for such intervention. Some arguments for protection are misplaced: if the source of market failure lies outside the firm, (e.g., lack of skills, infrastructure, institutions) intervention to protect the firm will do nothing to ensure that costs come down over time. To the extent, however, that failures arise from the firms own lack of investment in capability building, due to externalities (loss of skills or technology, or interdependencies between firms; Pack and Westphal, 1986), risk aversion, or lack of information (due to missing information markets or learning to learn phenomena; Stiglitz, 1987), intervention may have a justifiable role to play in restoring efficient resource allocation. The intervention may not necessarily take the form of import protection. Theory suggests that subsidies are preferable because they involve lower consumption costs than import restrictions. But protection is easier (and cheaper) for the government to administer, and historic evidence suggests that tariffs have been used by every developed country in critical stages of industrialization (Vernon, 1989). While protection has often been misused, as the trade strategy debate

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WORLD DEVELOPMENT workers) and to remedy the failures directly by providing finance (loans, venture capital financing, R&D subsidies, etc.) to firms or activities where social returns exceed private returns. Such interventions are often regarded as functional rather than selective, and so are considered with greater favor by those who mistrust selectivity (picking winners) by governments. The distinction, however, is often spurious. Interventions in finance, education, research, information or retraining are generally selective above a certain (fairly low) level: for instance, after providing for general levels of secondary education, the training of university-level engineers may need to be guided toward specific industrial needs. Given resource limitations, selectivity in industrial support is inevitable. But there is a stronger case for selectivity in factor market interventions: some activities have greater linkages and externalities than others. As Grossman (1990) argues, When market activity is too low relative to an efficient outcome, it is because the active and potentiallyactive firms fail to appropriate all the benefits from some aspect of their operation. Corrective government policy should be targeted to the particular activity that generates positive spillovers, and not merely encourage firms to produce more output (p. 118).

shows, it has also accompanied entry into difficult and complex activities with high learning costs. In fact, the existence of such costs in developing countries (with imperfect capital and information markets and strong linkages and externalities) suggests that protection is a necessary condition for development beyond technologically simple activities. It may not usually, however, be sufficient, because market failures in factor markets and institutions can hold back full gains in efficiency. Such interventions have to be selective, requiring that policy makers identify specific sectors, activities or even firms for promotion over others to exploit their superior growth potential, linkages or externalities. There are two basic requirements for such intervention to be effective. First, since protection itself reduces incentives to invest in FTC, it should not be too widespread, indiscriminate or prolonged, and should be offset by other incentives for increased efficiency. The best combination may be the selective and temporary protection of domestic markets, together with strong incentives for export activity and domestic competition. Second, policy makers should be able to identify suitable activities for protection, and have the authority to correct mistakes and modify choices over time (i.e., shut down inefficient operations). This option requires considerable informational and organizational resources, as well as political strength, on the part of the government. Some countries can provide such resources, but many cannot; we return to this below. (iii) Incentives from factor markets Theory suggests that well-functioning, flexible factor markets and correct relative factor prices are necessary to achieve efficient production and resource allocation. Efficiency in capital markets requires that long-term financing be available, especially for risky projects involving new technologies, and that price signals achieve proper interfirm and interindustry resource allocation. Efficient labor markets should be responsive to changing needs, not hampered by restrictive practices, and be equipped with requisite skills. Similarly, efficient technology markets should provide both adequate flows of information to enterprises, and public goods such as standards, testing facilities and basic research. In general, incentives should be sufficient to ensure that private firms do not underinvest in their own technological development. Where market failures occur and firms invest less than is socially desirable, governments must be able to step in, to enable firms to internalize markets (e.g., provide self-financing or subsidize training of

(c) Institutions The development of capabilities and the play of incentives express themselves only through specific market and nonmarket institutions. If markets create the necessary institutions naturally, there is no need to consider them separately. If they do not, however, the development of a proper institutional framework becomes an area of concern. Since underdevelopment is almost defined by the deficiency of institutions, clearly the subject requires consideration. Of the vast array of institutions that affect economic life, we note only those that are external to firms and that most directly affect industrial capabilities. In addition to the legal framework supporting industrial activity and property rights, these are: industrial institutions (those that promote interfirm linkages in production, technology or training, or provide support to smaller enterprises, or help firms to restructure and upgrade); training institutions (where firms underinvest in training or fail to provide the right kind or quality of training); and technology institutions (on the United States, see Nelson, 1988; Tassey, 1982, 1986; on Japan, Freeman, 1988; OTA, 1990; Nagaoka, 1989: and Ergas, 1984; OECD, 1987 on developed countries in general).

TECHNOLOGICAL 4. NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES: SOME EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

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This section applies the above framework to a selection of eight industrializing countries: the four East Asian NICs (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore), India, the two dominant Latin American industrial economies (Brazil and Mexico), and one second-tier NIC, Thailand. This sample gives a fair coverage of the different types of countries that have achieved a measure of success with industrial development. There is also some consensus about their strategies and achievements, which makes possible a classification that incorporates relevant elements that cannot be easily quantified. Table 2 sets out some relevant data on industrial structure and performance and two sets of determinants of NTC on which figures could be obtained: education and science and technology (see Lall, 1990). The top section of the table is intended to provide background information, and illustrates some features of the sample countries. The four East Asian NICs are the most dynamic and efficient (in terms of international competitiveness) of the group. There are, however, significant differences between their industrial structure, export specialization and reliance on overseas investment. Of the larger countries, Brazil has the biggest industrial sector, with an advanced technology in many areas of heavy industry; however, it has large areas of uncompetitiveness (Dahlman and Frischtak, 1990), a high foreign presence in modern industry and a large public sector. Mexico is similar in many ways, but has a smaller capital goods capability, a higher foreign presence and a lower manufactured export base. Indias industrial sector is very diverse, but riddled with inefficiency and technological obsolescence; it has suffered low rates of growth of exports and value added (until very recently), but has the distinction of having a very low level of reliance on foreign investment and technology imports in other forms (Lall, 1987, 1985, chapter 10). Finally, Thailand is a relative newcomer, with a shallow industrial base but very dynamic export growth based on the relocation of labor-intensive activities away from Japan and the older NICs. The pattern is well known - such diversity of industrial performance, as typified by the relative success of the East Asian NICs (and the emergence of new NICs in the region), has prompted much theorizing on the virtues of liberal trade strategies (World Bank, 1987). Our framework suggests that simple incentive-based explanations

may be partial and misleading, but let us look at the available evidence. The first issue is incentives. Macroeconomic management has, with one anomaly in South Korea during 1979-80, been excellent in the four East Asian NICs and Thailand, moderately good in India and poor in the two Latin American NICs. Their trade strategies are well known: consistently highly export-oriented (i.e., with incentives that were neutral between domestic and export markets, or biased in favor of the latter) over a long period for the East Asian NICs, with little or no protection in Hong Kong and Singapore but with selective, variable and often high protection for several industries in South Korea and Taiwan; more inward-oriented for Brazil and Mexico, with large areas of high effective protection, but with export incentives to partially offset the bias; highly and consistently inward-oriented for India; and increasingly export-oriented for Thailand, but still with remnants of protected import substitution. At the trade strategy level, therefore, export-oriented strategies seem to be positively correlated with industrial success, supporting the arguments of the liberal school that competition in international markets stimulates efficient specialization and healthy FIC development; in addition, it is suggested, export orientation provides free inflows of information from world markets, gives greater and more stable access to foreign technology and equipment and is associated with less rent-seeking behavior (Balassa et al., 1982; Nishimuzu and Robinson, 1984). These simple categorizations of export orientation, however, may be misleading depictions of strategies that are much more complex in their impact of NTC. There are several varieties of export orientation (Edwards, 1989). Hong Kong is at one extreme with fully Iaissezfaire economic policies combined with stable administration, a strong presence of British trading and financial enterprises (with considerable spillover benefits), a concentration of textile-related skills and technology (from Shanghai), and a long tradition of entrepbt trade which created a variety of contacts and skills. Singapore offers no protection, but intervenes heavily in several ways, in guiding investment, setting up public enterprises (these account for 10% of value added in manufacturing) , directing wages, and encouraging savings (Krause, 1988). It permits only very selective immigration (of skilled personnel) and is generally highly involved in guiding the economys development, especially by inducing foreign investors to upgrade the skill and capital intensities of the projects they undertake. As a result, the industrial structures of the two island

Table 2. Indicators of national technological capability in selected NICs South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore India Brazil Mexico Thailand

b
?I b 2 (3:::) 4.015.0 10.5-13.1 24.5 18.7/9.8 31.9 27.3/13.1 29 23 10.6 (43.3) 2.8 2.8 22.2 16.4/12.9 35.9 19.0/12.7 19 24 5.6 (25.2) 8.5 8.1 6.7 17.017.0 32.6 9.500.7 23 21 7.1 (106.0) 6.0-8.0 20-26 4.3 13.312.2 14.7 4.716.1 40 49 811 (188.4) 9.4 53.8 35.6 4.318.2 7.2 3.713.8 23 26 3.7 (10.4) 1.5 0.7 58.1 9.618.2 9.1 9.4/4.3 21 24 2.2 (3.8) 28.8 9.6 43.6 7.410.0 4.9 7.7ff.7 21 14 6.1 (14.0) 19.3 13.6 7.7 10.915.2 3.9 8.519.2 21 13

A STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE 1. Mfg. Value Added Sb. (1985) Mfg. Growth 1%~80/1980-86 2. Mfd. Exports (1986) $b. (1986) Growth of Merchandise Exports: 1%5-80/198&86 3. Gross Domestic Investment as % GDP (1986) 4. Capital Goods Prod. as % of Total Mfg. (1985) 5. Capital Goods Imports $b. (1985) (as % MVA) 6. Stock of Foreign Direct Investment $b. (1984-86) 7. FDI Stock as % GDP

B EDUCATION 1. (a) Education Expenditure as % household consumption (I 980-85) (b) Public Expenditure % GNP 6 4.9 (1985) 18.1 96 94 32 815 3.06

n.a. 5.1 (1986) 20.4 100 91 13 405 3.24

5 2.7 (1978) n.a. 105 69 13 32 0.86

4 (19:; 21.6 115 71 12 9 0.5 2.1 92 35 9 398 0.07 :.9 (1984) 3.0 104 35 11 1,481 1.83

12 2.9 (1980)

5 2.6 (1985) 11.5 115 55 16 854 2.0

6 3.9 (1984) 19.5 97 30 20 288.0 0.96

Central Government Expenditure on education % Total Government Expenditure (1986) % Age Group enrolled (1985) - Primary - Secondary - Tertiary Education Vocational Ed. Enrol. (1984) NOS (000) as % population working age

585 1.39 (1987) 228 0.54 563 0.70 (1986) 282 0.35 n.a. n.a. 0.3 (1985) na. 0.04 2,005 9 0.6 (1984) 0.2 0.01 256 217 565.6 10,720 (1970) 150 20.3 472 (1975) 1000-2000 1,362.2 1282-2564 11,475 (1985) (1980) 3,741 69 598 8 (19oR;r 0.2 0.1 132 2,500 20 (19:; 1.5 1.9 na. n.a. n.a. 960 38.3 15,304 (1980) 145.5 26,459 (1986) (19;; 0.2 0.2 1.283 361.3 8,706 (1986) n.a. n.a. 1,426 10,615 56 1.1 (1986) 0.7 0.6 3,843 9 0.7 (1982) 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a.

207 1.06 (1984) 129 0.68 22 0.89 (1984) 15 0.61 535 0.40 (1983) 165 0.13

36 0.67 (1984) 21 0.41

1,443 0.21 (1980) 397 0.06

360 0.70 (1985) n.a.

5. No of tertiary level students - in S/E fields (000) % population (Year) - in engineering (000) % population C. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1. Patents Granted: Total (1986) of which % local 2. R&D % GNP of which % local 3. R&D in Productive Sector % GNP 4. R&D financed by Productive Enterprises 5. Scientists/Engineers in R&D Per million population 6. All scientists/engineers (a) Total nos. (080) (b) Per million population (Year) % GNP

Sources: Asian Development Bank (1988). Evenson (1990). Republic of China (1985, 1987, 1989). UNESCAP (1988). UNESCO (1989). World Bank (1987, 1989).

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economies differ quite sharply (Krause, 1988). Hong Kong has remained specialized in light consumer goods, essentially assembling imported components, while moving up the quality scale its industry does not have great technological depth or high vertical linkages (Chen, 1989), and competitive pressures are forcing it to relocate in cheap-labor areas (chiefly China) rather than deepening domestic industrial activity. Singapore has a much heavier industrial structure, with strong emphasis on producer goods, and very high requirements of technical skills. South Korea and Taiwan have been much more interventionist, with the former traditionally far more so than the latter (Kuznets, 1988; Wade, 1988). Until the 198Os, the South Korean government highly protected and promoted selected (strategic) industries, sometimes set up public enterprises (such as its highly efficient Pohang steel plant), directed investment at the sectoral and often the firm level, promoted exports by several direct measures, intervened in technology transfer agreements and technology development (as in petrochemicals; see Enos and Park, 1987), restructured industries, and enforced labor training (see Amsden, 1989; Pack and Westphal, 1986; Westphal, 1990; World Bank, 1987a). Even today, despite considerable liberalization, a strong element of guidance remains in South Korea. Taiwan also protected emerging industries, guided expansion along particular lines and had a very active technology development policy (Hou, 1989; Wade, 1988). The South Korean strategy, however, was more specifically directed at creating and supporting giant firms (the chaebol) that could internalize many inefficient markets, though at the risk of a high level of government direction and the rigidities associated with size. Taiwanese strategy concentrated on providing support to small and medium-sized firms, providing great flexibility but holding back large, risky investments in technology by the firms themselves. It was perhaps a safer, more incremental strategy, while the South Korean one was more risky but permitted larger leaps into high-technology activities. In the production of semiconductor (DRAM) chips, for instance, South Korean chaebol were able to cross-subsidize, enter into production and export in a major way with little explicit government support (Kim, Lee and Lee, 1987; Mody, 1989b); an electronics research institute set up to launch semiconductor technology was quickly bypassed as the chaebol went directly into production with massive facilities. The Taiwanese government, on the other hand, had to adopt a far more interventionist strategy because of its earlier hands off stand on

promoting firm size. Its DRAM production facility was set up by a public sector firm, and the Taiwanese government had to coordinate related technology import, design, manufacture and marketing by several private firms. In effect, the government is doing in Taiwan what forward and backward integration does for companies (Saghafi and Davidson, 1990, p. 67). The large countries were also very interventionist in their industrial and technology policies. Brazil promoted several large public research organizations, and its giant public enterprises invested in research and development. It intervened in technology imports to support the development of local capabilities in the selected industries (the best-known case being minicomputers). Despite its heavy investments and major successes in some specifically targeted areas (aircraft, minicomputers, special steels, armaments), however, Brazilian strategy in technology development was to a large extent ineffective in achieving competitiveness for large parts of industry (Dahlman and Frischtak, 1990). Mexico also pursued policies to build up domestic industry behind import protection, but did not adapt Brazilian-style interventions to develop specific technologies; it also lagged in the development of local capital goods. As a result Mexican technological prowess is generally considered to be behind Brazils. Indias industrial strategy has remained highly interventionist within its import substitution orientation. The Indian government was suspicious of private enterprise in general, and large private firms and foreign investors in particular; and barriers to entry, exit, growth and diversification were rife. It set up a large network of science and technology (S&T) institutions, but these were divorced from manufacturing enterprises and excessively bureaucratic. The administration of Indian policies was slow, complex and prone to corruption. Another issue is capabilities, in particular human capital. Based on 1958-59 data, Harbison and Myers (1964) developed their famous composite index of human resource development in a large international sample of countries. At that time Argentina emerged with the highest rank in the developing world, followed by South Korea and Taiwan. Then (of our sample) came India, Mexico and Brazil (others in our sample were not included). In 1965, enrollment in secondary schools (as a percentage of the relevant age group) was distinctly higher in East Asia (South Korea 35%, Taiwan 38%, Hong Kong 29%, Singapore, 45%) than in other countries (Brazil 16%) Mexico 17%, India 27%, or Thailand 14%). Enrollment in tertiary education was also

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ahead (6%, 7%, 5%, 10% respectively in East Asia, 2% and 4% in Latin America, 2% in India and Thailand). By 1985, the East Asian lead in secondary education had been maintained or widened, while that in tertiary education had been narrowed or eroded - with the exception of South Korea. Mexico and Thailand had made particularly large gains in tertiary education. (It should be noted that, according to UNESCO data, Hong Kong and Singapore have large proportions of students in higher education overseas, 32% and 25% respectively, so the figures in Table 2 are underestimates.) India has the smallest stock. In Latin America, Mexico is ahead of Brazil. Thailand is expanding very rapidly from a low base. Enrollment figures for education by themselves may be misleading. The true impact on technological capability development also depends on the drop-out rate, the technical orientation of the students, and the quality of teaching. Drop-out rates are exceptionally low in East Asian NICs (Oshima, 1988; Kim, 1988). The technical orientation of education is highest in Singapore (60% of tertiary students are in S&T subjects), followed by Mexico (48%), Hong Kong (46%), South Korea (42%), Brazil (36%), India (27%) and Thailand (21%). There is no information on Taiwan, but we can safely assume the figure to be high. More important is the proportion of each countrys population enrolled in science and engineering. This broad measure of technological capacity is led by South Korea (1.39), followed by Taiwan (1.06), Singapore (0.89), Mexico (0.7), Hong Kong (0.67). Brazil (0.4) and India (0.21). Allowing for students abroad (and taking the proportion in science and engineering to be the same as at home), the figures for Singapore and Hong Kong rise to 1 .Ol and 0.81. South Koreas rises to 1.41, while those of others (Taiwan data are missing) are not affected. Taking engineering on its own, Taiwan leads the sample, followed by Singapore and South Korea. These three NICs have figures some 10 times higher than Indias, or 4-5 times higher than Brazils, The only relevant indicators of the quality of education are scores of primary and secondary school students on the International Education Reviews tests in science and mathematics. In one test, administered in 19 mostly developed countries, with only South Korea and India included from our sample (quoted in World Bank, 1981), South Korea came second only to Japan in nearly all tests, and in one it beat Japan. It consistently outperformed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden,

and Austria. South Koreas primary school students did 2.5 times better than India; its secondary school students 3.8 times better. In another test, reported in OTA (1990), two other sample countries, Hong Kong and Thailand, were included in a sample of 14, again mostly developed Twelfth graders were tested in countries. geometry and algebra in the mid-1980s. The top performer in both was Hong Kong, followed by Japan. The United States came 12th in geometry and 13th in algebra. Thailand came last in both tests. These tests should, however, be treated with caution, because they may not be robust indicators of educational standards across the board. The technical competence of an industrial workforce is improved by education imparted by various formal training systems and by in-firm training. While the precise nature of the benefits of vocational as opposed to general training, and preemployment as opposed to postemployment training, is still the subject of debate (Dougherty, 1989), it is indisputable that the speed of technical change in modern industry necessitates increasing inputs of training and retraining. Data are most readily available on vocational training (from UNESCO); these are shown in Table 2, in total and in relation to the size of the population. South Korea and Taiwan are far in the lead (over 3% of the population of working age is enrolled in vocational training), exceeding relative levels in Latin America (about 2%) and other East Asian NICs. Singapore is also relatively low (OS%), but this figure is misleading because of the large size of its employee training program run on a cooperative basis by government and industry. Hong Kong has a relatively poor showing (0.86%), behind that of Thailand, reflecting the specialized and technologically undemanding nature of its industrial structure. India has very small enrollments, suggesting widespread skill deficiencies. In-firm training figures are not widely available, but McMahon (1987) singles out South Korea as an exceptional case in that Since 1960 South Korea has insisted that companies spend at least 56% of their total budget on education and training programs, involving the private sector in the education process in a meaningful way (p. 19). It is doubtful whether any other country in the sample has a training effort comparable to this. Presumably, this effort has provided the basis for efficient production in South Koreas rapid drive into new, demanding industries. The impressions that emerge from these data are: (a) the East Asian NICs have the largest stock of human capital in a broad sense (formal education at secondary and tertiary levels). They

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DEVELOPMENT utilization of its meagre human resources. The most common measure of national technological effort is total spending on research and development (R&D) in relation to GNP. By this measure, sample data (not available for Hong Kong) show that South Korea, with 2.3% in 1987, is now well ahead of the others (more than double that of Taiwan, its nearest rival) and planning to reach 5% by the year 2000. Taiwan and India are close to each other, around l%, followed by Brazil and Mexico, Singapore and Thailand. Total R&D expenditures may be less relevant a measure of industrial technical effort than R&D performed or financed by productive enterprises. Total R&D includes large elements of nonindustrial R&D, or industrial R&D performed in government laboratories, or performed in productive enterprises but financed by others. Each has different implications for industry in terms of effectiveness, control and relevance. It is usually a safe assumption that R&D effectiveness is higher the more it is performed and financed by productive enterprises (Griliches, 1986, finds, for instance, that privately financed R&D in the United States yields much higher returns from R&D financed by the federal government and performed by the same enterprises). On this criterion, rows C.3 and C.4 of Table 2 show again that South Korea is far in the lead, with Taiwan some distance and other countries much further behind. The bulk of South Korean private R&D is performed by its giant chaebofs, themselves the products of earlier policies to select, protect and subsidize large firms to lead the industrialization drive. In this sense, even the private R&D of South Korea can be traced to the selective intervention, which created chaebols, directed them into heavy and complex activities and forced them to compete internationally. Patent data are also available but are notoriously difficult to compare meaningfully. Nevertheless, the figures on the proportion of patents taken out by residents (which may include foreigners) are suggestive (Evenson, 1990). South Korea and Taiwan (69% and 56%) are far ahead of India (20%), Brazil and Mexico (9% each), or Singapore (8%). The commercial value of these patents may be questionable, but it is instructive in this context to refer to Fagerbergs (1988) growth accounting exercise. Fagerberg used patents taken out internationally as a measure of innovative activity, and included Asian NICs (Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan) and Latin American NICs (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) as subsamples. Fagerbergs calculations showed that both

are followed by Mexico, then Brazil and Thailand, with India clearly at the bottom. (b) In terms of technical education and vocational training, South Korea and Taiwan are clear leaders (with South Korea pulling ahead at a generally high level, and Taiwan ahead in engineering education), with Singapore close behind. Hong Kong comes next, followed by Mexico, then Brazil or Thailand (depending on the measure), with India again lagging well behind. (c) In terms of the quality of education, patchy evidence suggests that the East Asian NICs, with their strong cultural emphasis on education, are ahead of the others. (d) In firmlevel training, South Korea is likely to be the leader. Singapore leads in employee training provided externally. These impressions conform broadly to the patterns of revealed NTC discussed earlier. While the most successful countries have the largest investments in human capital formation, preceding and accompanying their industrial growth, South Korea and Taiwan are in a different class from Hong Kong and Singapore. South Korea and Taiwans larger relative technical skill endowments explain their greater ability to tackle more complex, demanding industrial technologies. Hong Kong is distinctly behind Singapore, which conforms to the observed differences in their industrial structures and technological prowess. Interestingly, Singapores heavy reliance on foreign investors in its hightechnology industries does not relieve it of the need to provide educated and trained technical labor; multinational corporations (MNCs) are able to set up such industries there only because of the availability of appropriate personnel (and Singapore is widely regarded as having one of the worlds best employee training systems). Mexico seems to have a better trained workforce than Brazil by every measure. Its apparent lag in NTC must then be attributed to specific industrial and technological policies, which have failed to develop technological capabilities (at least in selected areas) as forcefully as Brazil. Indias substantial lag in human resources may appear surprising, because of the general aura it has of a country with an oversupply of technical and educated labor. There is certainly a large absolute supply (although of highly variable quality), and graduate unemployment and emigration are real problems. In relation to the size of the economy, however, the stock is poor, and what there is seems to be concentrated in the larger establishments. The apparent oversupply is more a reflection of the economys poor performance than anything else: wrong policies have held back even the absorption and effective

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groups of NICs grew faster than the frontier countries (United States, Switzerland, Germany, Japan, Sweden), East Asia 6% faster and Latin America 1.9% faster. The difference between the two subgroups was primarily due to their innovative efforts. For Asian NICs, these efforts contributed 2.9% of their relative growth performance; for Latin America the figure was -0.1%. Such exercises suffer from well-known limitations and interpretation problems, but the general results are plausible and in conformance with other sorts of evidence. Innovative effort is important for growth even among NICs, and East Asia performs far better than Latin America. The employment of scientists and engineers in R&D in relation to population is another common measure of technological effort. The figures for this measure (row C.5) show Taiwan ahead of others (1,426 per million population in 1986, higher than Frances 1,365 in 1984). South Korea is a close second with 1,283, followed by Singapore with 960. There is then a large gap, with Brazil and Mexico having 256 and 217 respectively. Thailand has 150 and India 132. The quality of R&D scientists and engineers may differ by country, and their economic value may depend on the type of R&D they are engaged in, but there is no reason to believe that, as far as NICs are concerned, these factors would reduce the apparent lead of East Asia. If anything, they would strengthen it. A similar measure of the total potential stock of scientists and engineers is shown in row C.6 of Table 2. The data (taken from UNESCO, which collects the figures by questionnaire) are sometimes dubious (especially for Hong Kong, where they appear to be overestimates), but they show the two island NICs of Asia with the highest stocks of scientists and engineers, followed by Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. India comes out ahead of Thailand on this measure, but well behind the others. The technological data broadly support the trends revealed by the figures on education. The Asian NICs, in particular South Korea and Taiwan, have invested not only in educating and training their populations, but also in technological innovation. This investment was primarily oriented to the commercial needs of productive enterprises, and has drawn upon a large pool of scientists and engineers. Combined with a highly skilled workforce these investments yielded the competitiveness and dynamism that revealed themselves in growth and export performance. Export orientation played a permissive and stimulative role, and as such was necessary - but it was not sufficient.

Turning now to technology imports, all sample countries import large amounts of technology, but their import patterns differ greatly. In part this disparity is due to differing rules and controls on buying know-how and services abroad: the international technology market is subject to a spectrum of failures caused by asymmetric information, opportunism, missing markets and so on, and different governments have adopted different measures to overcome such failures and help national enterprises to purchase technology on fair terms. In part, however, it is due to a more fundamental difference, on national technological strategy. This concerns the relative roles of foreign and local enterprise in building indigenous capabilities. There are striking variations across the leading semi-industrial countries in the extent to which they have drawn on foreign direct investment (FDI) to provide technology and skills. FDI can, in appropriate conditions, be a very efficient means of transferring a package of capital, skills, technology, brand names and access to established international networks. It can also provide beneficial spillovers to local skill creation and, by demonstration and competition, to local firms. Where local skills and capabilities are inadequate, FDI can sometimes be the only means to upgrade technologies and enter hightechnology activities. The very fact however, that FDI is such an efficient transmitter of packaged technology based on innovative activity performed in advanced countries has serious implications. With few exceptions, the developing country affiliate receives the results of innovation, not the innovative process itself: it is not efficient for the enterprise concerned to invest in the skill and linkage creation in a new location. The affiliate, in consequence, develops efficient capabilities up to a certain level, but not beyond: in the literature this process is called the truncation of technology transfer. Such truncation can diminish not only the affiliates own technological development, but also its linkages with the host countrys technological and production infrastructure, and thus limit beneficial externalities. Moreover, a strong foreign presence with advanced technology can prevent local competitors from investing in deepening their own capabilities (as opposed to becoming dependent on imported technology or, where the technology is not available at reasonable prices, withdrawing from the activity altogether). For these reasons, countries with technological potential may find it beneficial to restrict FDI and import technology in unpackaged forms (including foreign minority-owned joint ventures). The choice of modes of technology

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imports is thus not neutral - some are more beneficial than others for certain strategies and at certain stages of development. The sample countries cover the whole range of FDI strategies. Rows A.67 of Table 2 set out data on stocks of foreign investment in each country and on FDI as a percentage of GDP in the relevant year. It shows, at one extreme, low levels of reliance on FDI by India and South Korea, and, at the other, very high levels by Singapore and Hong Kong, and fairly high levels, among large countries, by Mexico, Thailand and Brazil. The interesting cases are those of South Korea and Singapore, both successful NICs which have opted for opposing strategies on foreign capital. South Korea has developed arguably the most advanced and competitive base of technological capabilities in the developing world, drawing on foreign technology mainly in nonequity forms (i.e., by capital goods imports, licensing and minority foreign ventures; Westphal, Rhee and 1979; Westphal, 1990). In order Pursell, to nurture this massive effort it followed the Japanese example of some decades earlier protection against imports and selective exclusion of foreign investment, accompanied by the upgrading of skills, huge investments in R&D and the sponsoring of the giant chaebols to internalize various markets and so cope with the rigors of international competition. The strategy may be characterized as one of protecting domestic technological learning at a stage of development when externalities and uncertainties abound, information linkages are imperfect and basic capabilities are in the preliminary stages of development. This stage is similar in many respects to the microlevel process of developing a new innovation by a developed country firm, when (as Grossman, 1990, argues) the strongest case for government intervention may arise . . . [because this would] involve substantial research outlays and costly learningby-doing [and] private firms often are unable to capture more than a fraction of the benefits they create for consumers and for other firms in the industry (p. 119). The South Korean strategy went well beyond supporting R&D to restricting imports and direct investment. Technological development by an industrializing LDC is different in a critical sense from a firm innovating a new technology: the LDC faces an external environment where several competitors have already undergone the learning process and have developed the necessary institutional structures. The need for intervention in LDCs is concomitantly greater. South Korea demonstrates that protection of the learning process can be highly effective when com-

plex, large-scale, fast-moving technologies are involved (Westphal, 1990). Singapore, in contrast, relied entirely on technology generated elsewhere, but intervened (selectively) to induce investors to move up the technological scale and (functionally) to provide a well-trained workforce. The strategy worked well for Singapore but whether it can be emulated by larger economies, and whether it will lead to a broad base for sustained industrial development (b la Japan or South Korea) is open to question. The Latin American economies have come somewhere in between. Brazil has set up large public enterprises and restricted foreign entry in certain sectors to protect indigenous learning; Mexico is also doing so on a much smaller scale. The heavy reliance of these countries on MNCs for a great deal of advanced technology may well have prempted indigenous capability development in the sectors concerned. India has had a very different experience, excluding MNCs in much of manufacturing, but also suffering technological lags and inefficiency as a result of its trade and industrial policies and poor human capital endowments. Institutions are not considered here because it is practically impossible to compare institutional structures and performance across countries. This is not to deny their importance - institutional support is clearly an integral part of capability development - but to leave their consideration to a different venue.

5. CONCLUSIONS

AND IMPLICATIONS

The analysis presented above on the determinants of NTC provides a broad, suggestive framework rather than a precise set of causal connections. It has been suggested in this paper that the development of capabilities is the outcome of a complex interaction of incentive structures (mediated by government interventions to overcome market failures) with human resources, technological effort and institutional factors (each also strongly affected by market failures and so needing corrective interventions). Partial explanations of NTC development, which concentrate exclusively on market-driven incentives, on the one hand, or on capability-building measures, on the other, are apt to be misleading for analytical and policy purposes. It is the interplay of all these factors in particular country settings that determines at the firm level how well producers learn the skills and master the information needed to cope with industrial technologies and, at the national level, how well countries employ their factor endowments, raise those

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endowments over time, and grow dynamically in the context of rapidly changing technologies. With the current prevalence of noninterventionist views on economic development strategy, it is important to be clear about the implications of the framework of NTC presented here. One set of determinants cannot by itself produce dynamic, broad-based, sustained industrial development. Just getting proper incentives in place will be better, ceteris paribus, than giving the wrong signals, but just getting prices right may lead to specialization in activities with static comparative advantage if the skills, technology, or institutions are not present to permit efficient diversification. Similarly, generating skills alone would achieve little if incentives for efficient industrial activity were lacking. Given skills and incentives, performance would still differ (as it does among developed countries), depending on the ability of institutions and government policies to overcome market failures and protect activities with genuine dynamic potential. The existence of market failures considerably modifies what are regarded as neoclassical prescriptions for development, even within the strict rules of neoclassical analysis. Government policy affects all three components of technological development. Let us reiterate, starting with incentives. A consensus is emerging on the trade and industry policies that promote healthy NTC development. These are largely taken to be market-oriented policies that promote competition, specialization by comparative advantage, and free international flows of technology and capital. It is recognized, however, that there can be serious failures in the provision of correct signals from free markets. The existing configuration of prices and costs may not be a reliable guide to resource allocation (including investments in capability building) where there are externalities, complementarities, uncertain learning gains or capital market failures (Stiglitz, 1987, 1989). There may then be little theoretical or empirical justification for some fashionable policy prescriptions, e.g., free trade, or giving low and uniform effective protection to different activities. There may be a valid case for intervening in free trade on infant industry grounds. There may also be a valid case for selectivity: some activities may well need much higher protection (and capability-building support) than others, depending on their technical requirements, externalities and the cost and risk involved in developing the necessary capabilities. By the same reasoning, there may be justifiable reasons for promoting strategic industries (because of extensive linkages) or selected individual firms (to realize economies of

size and scope by internalizing deficient markets) (Westphal, 1990). As far as capabilities are concerned, there is perhaps more agreement on the need for policy interventions to promote physical and human capital development and technological effort. The interventions needed, however, may be selective as well as functional if education and technology strategies are to be geared to realizing specific forms of dynamic comparative advantage. In the early stages, industrial development needs basic human capital (literacy and numeracy, with some vocational skills); the period needed to absorb simple industrial technologies is short and needs little protection or external support. At this stage, relatively nonselective educational interventions may be appropriate. As development proceeds, more difficult technologies are used and the need for more sophisticated and specialized education/training grows. To the extent that the education market lacks information on these specialized needs, or underinvests in providing facilities of the right kind and quality, there arises the need for selective intervention. Moreover, since there is a serious risk of private underinvestment in training at the firm level when labor is mobile, human capital development requires measures to induce more investment to support employee training, by firms individually or cooperatively, or by governments where private agents consistently underinvest. These measures may be functional, applied to all activities, or they may be selective, targeting emerging sectors. The need for specific technological effort to acquire technological capabilities also rises with industrial development. Easy capabilities may be acquired by brief training combined with learning-by-doing (i.e., repetition without technical search, investment or experimentation). More difficult capabilities ncessarily require more training and technological effort to master, with concomitant risk and uncertainty. As technologies grow more complex, the development of capabilities runs into problems of appropriability, externalities, lumpiness and requirements of very specialized skills (Teece, 1989): policies may be needed to overcome these problems in firmlevel efforts. The policies must also cover the development of institutions external to firms, to provide information, standards, basic research and other similar public goods relevant to capability development (Grossman, 1990). As development proceeds, moreover, institutional interventions may grow more selective as the initial basic needs are met and markets function more efficiently. Technological development always needs tech-

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nology imports from advanced countries. The extent of dependence on imported technology and the form that technology imports take, however, affect NTC development. A passive reliance on foreign skills, knowledge and technology may lead to NTC stagnation at a low level, while selective inputs of foreign technology into an active domestic process of technology development can lead to dynamic NTC growth. Imports of technology must therefore be directed to forms that feed into local efforts rather than suppress them. Adverse effects can arise from a massive foreign presence in the form of MNCs that keep their main R&D functions overseas. They can, however, also arise from licensing or use of foreign consultants in ways that do not transfer know why to local agents, and that transfer all the benefits of learning abroad. Licensing can be deep or shallow, a stimulus to local learning or a drain on it: NTC development requires appropriate information selection and negotiation. Thus specific interventions are needed to promote NTC development, and these will have both selective and functional aspects. The above is not meant to suggest that there is a single optimal path to industrial development for all developing countries. The experience of NICs shows clearly that there are many roads to success. Some differences in viable strategies are given by the state of nature viz. size, resource endowment or location. Small countries are not, other things being equal, handicapped by their size, but the sorts of industries they can set up and the technological options they can pursue differ from those for large countries. But there are other differences in possible strategies which depend more on the strategic choices of policy makers than on the state of nature. The extent and pace of industrial deepening, for example, is a strategic variable for the policy maker: this determines, in turn, the pace and content of human resource development, incentives needed via protection or credit allocation, requirements for technical support or infrastructure, and so on. A country which (like Hong Kong) is content to specialize in light industry needs to invest heavily in (generic) human capital, infrastructure and some (selective) support for likely export activities, but it needs to intervene less (and less selectively) in other ways than one which aims for heavy industry of particular types. Similarly, the desired extent of national ownership or depth of indigenous technological capability (the two may be closely linked) determines the need for efforts on local skill creation and investments in R&D. Each of the NICs represents a different model of industrial development because of its choice among strategic variables: the 1 nromotion of u

selected industries or of selected enterprises, fostering of particular types of industrial structures, reliance on domestic as opposed to foreign ownership of industry, and development of an indigenous base-of technology and skills. These choices dictate, in turn, different degrees and combinations of selective and functional interventions. It is an open question which set of choices constitutes an ideal long-term development strategy. What is evident is that many strategies are viable, that each is based on a different combination of incentives, capabilities and institutions, and that each carries its own set of concomitant interventions. The choice of a less selective set of interventions (b la Hong Kong) reduces the risks of backing expensive losers, but it has its own demands and drawbacks. To achieve something approximating the industrial success of Hong Kong, a government would need to intervene initially to build up a comparable base of skills, entrepreneurship, trading know-how and infrastructure. To enable competitive new activities to emerge without selective promotion, furthermore, the government would have to intervene over time to create new skills, technologies and institutions. If the objective is to establish a deep and diverse industrial structure (as it should be in larger economies), such functional measures would have to be very extensive indeed. It may even be the case that dynamic industrial development with nonselective interventions would place greater demands on administrative capabilities (to mount functional interventions) rather than less. If such capabilities were lacking, the process of development may be slower or more uneven than with a package that included careful selective interventions. In any case, it is not clear that, in the absence of selective interventions (in factor or product markets), such a country would be able to diversify into more complex, demanding industries with heavy learning costs. Certainly industrialization experience does not suggest that it would. In the final analysis, therefore, a large role remains for government policies in promoting each of the three determinants of technological development. But governments face information and incentive problems no less than does the private market . . . Good policy requires identifying them [market failures], asking which can be directly attacked by making markets work more effectively (and in particular, reducing government imposed barriers to the effective working of markets) and which cannot. We need to identify which market failures can be ameliorated through nonmarket institutions (with perhaps the government taking an instrumental role in estab-

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lishing these nonmarket institutions). We need to recognize both the limits and strengths of markets, as well as the strengths, and limits, of government interventions aimed at correcting market failures (Stiglitz, 1989, p. 202). The experience of developing countries is replete with instances of misguided intervention. It has been suggested here that many of these failed interventions were neither economic nor truly selective. The relatively few cases of successful selective intervention that exist suggest that interventions are necessary in the presence of widespread market failures. Consequently, improved methods of intervening are worth striving for. Much depends on the competence, honesty and political strength of the policy makers: where governments are so weak or

corrupt that selective interventions inevitably lead to the hijacking of policy by entrenched interests, it may be better to suffer market failure than pervasive government failure (Biggs and Levy, 1990). In such cases, however, it is not evident that nonintervention would lead to industrial success. It should be feasible to strengthen the administrative capabilities and power of governments by providing better information and building in measures to safeguard sensible economic policies, and to limit interventions in scope to prevent the worse abuses. But this takes us beyond the scope of the present discussion, into the realms of political economy proper, where again fears of government failure may have been too sharply drawn (Shapiro and Taylor, 1990).

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