Oct.

5, 2011

CARBON FINANCING: NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES

IPM, Gandhinagar

Session 1: Introduction to Climate Change A) Overview of Energy Scenario (Global and India) B) Climate Change science Impacts and Challenges science,

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar,

Asstt. Prof. Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

HISTORY OF MANKINDS USE OF ENERGY

The hunt for Th h t f energy security has b it h brought out several i ht t l issues i in Modern World System (Europe, 16th centaury) such as:
Geopolitical Rivalries Energy shift Corporate Competition (industrial innovation and predictable growth) Social Conflicts

Modern society continues to rely largely on fossil fuels to preserve economic growth and to maintain the today's standard of living. Industrialization consumes large amount of energy Coal panic (1860s in Britain) has resulted in situation when Britain had to bring in the more resources under their control by military actions. This created a new world geopolitics. Oil Panic during 1970s has triggered two type of actions world wide i.e. Military control or Production Maximization.
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar,

Asstt. Prof. Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Energy - An essential ingredient for development
The co-relation between Human Development and level of Energy use is well established Human development (on path of MDG) requirement are targeted to move to longevity of life and improving the living levels Standard of living Standard-of-living criteria largely and directly associated with energy use and is measured in
Accessibility (ex. as vehicle miles traveled) Comfortably (ex. building-climate-conditioning)

Thus the Global Energy consumption is bound to increase as all countries have priority to maintain or improve the standards of living Electrical energy consumption is more significant for Human development than that the total primary energy consumption

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

The regions of energy deprivation (i.e. without electricity) and dependent on the non-commercial energy (i.e. biomass) are the same regions with the poorest people These regions are also conflict ridden regions and infested with the undeveloped, degraded natural resources and several other regional threats making them most vulnerable population on the earth
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Source: International Energy Agency

HDI VS PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Source: Alan D. Pasternak, (2000), Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy

ENERGY INTENSITY AND ELECTRICITY INTENSITY

Percapita consumption of electricity is close to or less than 4,000 kWh indicate an in-efficient i ffi i t conversion of electricity and energy to GDP. i f l t i it d t GDP Energy intensity is a measure of how well energy is converted to income. Low values of Energy Intensity are preferred Most common unit of energy intensity is thousands of Btu per purchasing parity dollar (MBtu/PPP$). Similarly, electricity intensity is represented as kilowatt-hours per purchasing parity dollar (kWh/PPP$).

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY - ENVIRONMENT LINKAGES

The impact of extraction of energy resources

Land use changes Deforestation Air pollution p Land degradation (soil erosion, river silting) and Water pollution

The Impact of energy sources use (combustion)

Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, leading to Climate Change (i.e. h g d tt Ch g (i changed patterns of rain and d ght and threatening f i d drought d th t i g food and social security).

The countries infested with poverty will be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This in turn may nullify achievement of MDG and pose the new challenges challenges.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

WORLD ENERGY PRODUCTION

Thank you y

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY DRIVERS

Primary energy is driven by

Increasing requirements or living standards Rising Ri i population l i Overall rate of economic growth (specially in case of fast emerging economies) Availability and Affordability of energy Energy fuel mix Renewable sources of energy Efficiency of current and future energy technologies (reduce the demand and augmenting
energy supply at lower cost)

Source: Based on Global Energy Outlook 2050 Policy Options , Dr. Salman Saif Ghouri,
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.
Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL

Mtoe- Million tons of Oil equivalent It is a unit of energy representing the amount of energy released by burning one tonne of crude oil which is f f f approximately 42 Giga-Joules Source: International Energy Agency
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (TPES) OF THE WORLD

Mtoe- Million tons of Oil equivalent It is a unit of energy representing the amount of energy released by burning one tonne of crude oil which is approximately 42 Giga-Joules

Source: IEA, 2009 and 2010 K W ld E S IEA d 2010, Key World Energy St ti ti I t Statistics, International E ti l Energy A Agency

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE WORLD

Source: IEA, 2009, Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency

It is quite clear from the chart that fossil fuels have been the major sources of energy through past several decades. The share of oil has been overtaken primarily by gas, coal and nuclear

ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA

Institutions and regulatory agencies in India Energy Analysis framework Present Status in India Energy Intensities Past trends and present status Energy Consumption (Primary and Commercial) trends Commercial Energy Supply, Demand and Production S l D d dP d i Regional Distribution Non-Commercial Energy National Priority : Energy security Issues and Challenges
13
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.
Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY: PRESENT STATUS IN INDIA

India ranked 7th in energy producer (2.5%) and 5th in energy consumption (3.5%) in 2004. During 10 plan GDP grown 7.8 % annually, while the Primary Commercial energy consumption grown by 5.51% with Energy Elasticity of 0.71. Share of commercial energy in total primary energy rose from 59.7 % in 1980-81 to 72% in 2006-07. Indias Per capita primary energy consumption 455 ktoe (2004) (550 ktoe 2010) as compare to world average 1750 ktoe, China 1147 ktoe and Brazil 1232 ktoe. Incremental Demand for next decade (2010-20) is highest in world Low per capita total primary energy and electricity consumption Electricity Tariff as % of purchasing power is highest in India 47 cent (per unit) as compare to China ( 20 cent) US (5 2 cent) and Germany (5 cent) cent), (5.2 Average Peak power shortage 12 % (ex scheduled load shedding), while high plant load factor of 76.8 % indicating strained and limited reserves. Average Energy Deficit is 7.3 %
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.
Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

INDIAN ENERGY SECTOR

Multiplicity of Institutional and unclear/week regulatory framework

Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof. Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Reserve Assessment : DGH Resources : ONGC, CIL, GAIL Commercial Energy Generator: NPCIL, NTPC, NHPC, SEBs/SPUs, IOC/HPCL/ BPCL/. Pvt. Refineries Transmission/logistics : PGC (Power grid corporation), Railways , GAIL Equipments : BHEL, ABB, Siemen Distribution : Oil Marketing Companies, Course Instructor: SEBs, DisComs

GoM Group of Ministers ATE Appellate tribunal for Electricity CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Authority SERCs State Electricity Regulatory Authority

INDIAN ENERGY SECTOR

S e c t o r a l L e v e l o f A n a l y s i s
Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.
Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Energy Analysis Framework A n a l y s i s

Analysis Methods
1. 2. Process Analysis Input-output Analysis

POPULATION-ECONOMY-ENERGY
Industrial/Service sectors and Urban population driven energy consumption Dualism (formal and Unorganized/informa; Traditional and Modern)

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY: PRESENT STATUS IN INDIA

India has lowest per capita TPES at 439 kgoe as compare to global average e of 1688 kgoe India has lowest TPES per GDP at 0.16 as compare to g global average of 0.21 g US has 26 times higher electricity consumption (13066) kWh per capita as it compare to India (553)

Source: Planning Commission, (2006) , Integrated Energy Policy: Report of Expert Committee, Govt. of India.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY USE ELASTICITY

Source: Planning Commission, (2006) , Integrated Energy Policy: Report of Expert Committee, Govt. of India.

Energy use elasticity in India was more than unity (during 1953-2001) as compare to 0.68 as world average, which fallen below unity (1991-2000) lowering of energy intensity due to Higher share of better calorific value fuels Efficiency improvement High tariff 19 Lower growth of some sectors (e.g. agriculture)

Primary Energy Supply/Consumption Trends Global vs. India

INDIA AT CROSS-ROAD..

Source: Aligning Climate change and Sustainable development policies, Prof, P.R. Shukla, IIMA

INDIAS ENERGY RESOURCES : RENEWABLE

11th Plan thrust

Grid Interactive and Distributed Renewable Power Renewable Rural Applications Renewable Energy for Urban, Industrial and Commercial Applications Research, Design, and Development for New and Renewable Energy Information, publicity and extension, international relations, HRD and training, equity support

21

INDIA ENERGY SCENE : ENERGY SECURITY

Limited reserves (fossil) and Regional Distribution (off shore or north east) away from mainland Import dependence is high (40%), out of which 70% is from middle east. Strategic shift from Persian Gulf to Africa and Caspian Basin are underway with $ 3 bln investment in short time.
Africa Sudan (750 mln), Nigeria (long term purchase agreement), Syria (oil feld development) Caspian Basin Political smothering under way Central Asia Tajikistan (military and financial assistance), Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Iran Potential new suppliers - Russia, Vietnam and Mynmar

Source Diversification is problematic No contingency plan for energy supply disruption Some Policy Initiatives
Increase fuel efficient of equipments/ transport etc. Shift to NG still import dependent p p Production Maximization NELP Clean, efficient future technology Sustainable renewable fuels

INDIA ENERGY SCENE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Countrys needs and challenges for access to Energy: Adequate and Varied Energy Availability Desired Quality D i d Q li Sustained : Accessibility, Reliability, Availability Reasonable Cost or Price Affordability Equitable (inter and intra regional level) Dependency on Imported Fossil Fuels Clean Energy Minimization of adverse Impacts (Social environmental (Social, environmental, economic) Long term Energy Security

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

REGIONAL (ENERGY - ENVIRONMENTAL - CLIMATE CHANGE) LINKAGES AND EXCHANGES

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

ENERGY - ENVIRONMENT ENERGY ANALYSIS AND MODELING

Total Primary, Secondary, Final ( y, (end(enduse) Energy Energy Services Direct or Indirect Energy Commercial or Non Commercial Energy

CLIMATE

CHANGE LINKAGES

Energy Economy Environment Model

Market Potential of Energy Technologies under various scenarios Integrated Energy Environmental Economic Bottom-up or topdown models

Source: Taken from Presentation by Mr. V. Bhatt, Brookhaven National Laboratories, USA

WORLDS CO2 EMISSIONS

Major Contributing Activities

Energy (Generation) Sector is the largest contributor of CO2 emissions.

Source: http://wwwtc.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl ine/heat/art/graph3.jpg

The energy (generation) sector has significant influence of the climate and thus b th becomes an important part of any climate change related discussion. i t t t f li t h l t d di i Overall the climate change mitigation includes the strategy for optimising the energy consumption levels and its use pattern pattern.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS

Major contributing Fuels
*World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers. **Calculated using the IEAs energy balances and the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines. CO2 emissions are from fuel combustion only. ***Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.

Source: IEA, 2009 and 2010, Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS BY SOURCE

Share of Contributing Fuels

Coal considered to be one of the most polluting source of energy where as oil li next t coal and gas i th l il lies t to l d is the least polluting f t ll ti fossil f l il fuel. The renewable and non-conventional sources of energy are considered to be relatively clean clean.
Source: IEA, 2009, Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS

by Regions
The emissions from the developed ( (OECD) ) nations have remained almost constant during last three decades where as the emissions from China have increased drastically. y

It is also noted that after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 the total emissions from Former Soviet countries have decreased drastically owing to the slow recovery of economy. economy
Source: IEA, 2009 and 2010, Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency

CONCLUSIONS ON ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE CHANGE

Energy use is a p gy primary source of CO2 emissions y History of human development is marked with the change in type of energy use from manual work to non-commercial (wood and biomass) to commercial energy t d (electricity). i l today ( l t i it ) Although all fossil fuel (oil, coal, gas) remained to be main energy sources, sources there is significant shift from coal to oil or gas has been observed. Use of geothermal, solar and wind is observed to be increasing in last g , g two decades Energy (Generation) Sector is the largest contributor of CO2 emissions Among the various primary energy sources, the coal is major CO2 emitter OECD countries remained to be major energy guzzlers (consuming about ti i dt b j g g l ( i g b t half of world energy) and the CO2 emitter (about 50 % of CO2) as compare to their population.

CONCLUSIONS ON ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE CHANGE

Due to D t rapid growth of developing countries and emerging economies (OME, id th f d l i ti d i i (OME EITs), their share in energy consumption and in CO2 emission is likely to grow faster than the developed countries (including OECD) In order to achieve the 450 PS scenario (i.e. CO2 concentration below 450 ppm) the share of coal, oil and gas need to be brought down and that of nuclear and renewable has to increase. increase

It is anticipated that the largest increase in world energy demand over the next 25 50 years will come f t 25-50 ill from d l i g countries, subject t availability developing ti bj t to il bilit and affordability. The sectors such as rural and urban residential consumers; industrial sector and others associated services and transport will form the major part of expected increase in energy demand.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

CONCLUSIONS ON ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE CHANGE

The intricate coupling of Human development with the energy use, is poses a challenge to policy makers for meeting the human development goals (MDGs) while at same time reducing the energy and carbon intensity of economic growth The economic growth will remain overriding priority for developing countries. Developing countries like India today have low energy intensity due to large demography, however meeting the high energy requirements in future is a challenging task which calls for balancing import-export, domestic resource use economic growth management and sustainable use, development

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Session 1: Introduction to Climate Change A) O Overview of Energy Scenario (Global and India) i fE S i (Gl b l d I di )

B) Climate Change science, Impacts and Challenges

Introduction to climate change
Climate Change? Climate Components Why urgency to act?

Environmental, Environmental social and economic impacts Mitigation Challenges

Who Should do? implications

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar,

Asstt. Prof. Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

CLIMATE AND ITS COMPONENTS

Climate
(Weather vs. Climate Change?)

Temperature Humidity Precipitation Atmospheric particles Other Metrological factors (air pressure, etc) Evapo-transpiration (added later)

C l i m a t e of a place is the Average weather experienced over a long period of time and determined on factors such as rainfall, sunshine, wind, humidity, and temperature.

Climate influenced by
Latitude, Longitude Terrain Altitude Ice/snow cover Nearby Oceans and currents

Paleoclimatology: Ancient Climate studies gy Environmental Component

Air Water Soil and Land Environment Biodiversity and Ecology

World Climate Map

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

A C l i m a t e S y s t e m exists since the earth came into being C h a n g e s I n T h e C l i m a t e a continuous phenomenon in earth's history Well-marked cold and hot periods have been experienced by earth and all life forms adapted n a t u r a l l y to this change.

UNDER RSTANDING C CLIMATE CHAN NGE

CONCERN IS . Rapid Changes in Earth Climate in last 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 years taken place and difficult to adapt if continues like this H u m a n a c t i v i t i e s are said to be responsible for the rate at which these change have occurred and it is now a cause of concern to humankind. D E F I N I N G C L I M AT E C H A N G E IPCC (2007a:943) a change in the state of climate that can be identified by (e.g.. b using statistical t t ) b changes i th mean ( by i t ti ti l tests), by h in the and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer

Green House Effect ?

ENERGY BALANCE

Source: Th Cli t S t S The Climate System: an O Overview, IPCC TAR 1 i TAR-1

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Climate Change : Where are we today? Some Facts

IPCC: WG I - SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
- 20th Century, Human Influence

Temperature (Global mean) increased by 0.6 C in 20th century Sea level (Global mean) has risen 0.1 - 0.2 m in 20th century Snow cover and ice extent decreased 10% reduction in snow cover since late d ti i i l t 60s 10 - 15% reduction in northern hemisphere spring/summer ice extent since 50s Warming observed in last 550 years is attributable to human activities

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Scientific evidence indicates that the Earths climate is rapidly changing, predominantly as a result of increases in greenhouse gases caused by human activities. (AR4) New and stronger evidence that most of the warming g g observed over at least the past 50 years is attributable to human activities. (IPCC, 2001) link between greenhouse gases concentrations and global temperatures is well established established.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

From simple energy-balance calculations, th di t l l ti the direct warming effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations would lead to an average surface warming g g of around 1C. Milankovic Cycle Feedbacks Climate Sensitivity

GLOBAL FOSSIL CARBON EMISSIONS

Trend Line

Steep rise in the emissions

Before Industrial Revolution

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.
Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Post Industrial Revolution

Source: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htm

Climate Change : Some Projections

Future Temperature ( p (mean surface) to increase by 1.4 - 5.8 C. ) y Sea level (mean) to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters Anthropogenic climate change will persist for centuries even after greenhouse gas concentrations have stabilized Some aspects of climate appear not to have changed Basic reasons
data inadequacies localised changes no statistically significant average insufficient evidence

Antarctic sea ice extent (shows interannual variability) Not determined whether trends exist for Global ocean circulation or small smallscale phenomena (tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust storms) No clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report Forth Assessment

SRES scenarios. A1 : Assumes a world of very rapid economic growth a global population that peaks in mid-century Rapid introduction of new/efficient technologies.
(three sub-groups alternative technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B).

B1 : A convergent world, with the same global population as A1 with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy economy. B2: A world with intermediate population and economic growth Emphasising local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. t i bilit A2: A very heterogeneous world with high population growth, Slow economic development and slow technological change. No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES scenarios.

Climate Change : Where we can go?

Confidence levels Very High High Moderate Medium Low Confidence levels Support Monitored M it d Long term satellite observations More evidence Substantial new evidence

Very high confidence Recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including (earlier timing of spring events, leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying; and p poleward/upward shifts/wider in p p plant and animal species p High confidence Natural systems related to snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost) are affected. Trend in many regions towards earlier greening of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming. Changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. Shifts in ranges and changes i.e. abundance in algal, plankton, fish and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude or/and high-altitude lakes and fish migrations in rivers. Climate change impacts on coral reefs
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report Forth Assessment

Temperature and Precipitation Trends Projection (2010-2070) :Asia Pacific

Temperature change scenarios for 2010 and 2070 (C) Region Indonesia, Philippines, and coastal south and southeast Asia Inland south and southeast Asia (not south Asia in June-JulyAugust) Inland south Asia in June-July-August Year (2010) 0.1-0.5 0.3-0.7 0.1-0.3 Year (2070) 0.4-3.0 1.1-4.5 0.4-2.0

Rainfall scenarios for 2010 and 2070 (% change) Region SouthWest Monsoon Region India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines (western part), and Viet Nam (except east coast) Northeast Monsoon Region Indonesia, Philippines (east part), Viet Nam (east coast), Sri Lanka, and Malaysia South Asia Subregion (15-30N; 65-95E) 2010
Wet Season

2010
Dry Season

2070
Wet Season

2070
Dry Season

0 0 to -5 0 to +10

0 0 -5 to +5

0 to 10 -5 to +15 +5 to +50

-10 to +10 0 to +10 -5 to +20

Source: http://www.grida.no/publications/climate/ipcc/regional/281.htm; original source: Whetton, 1994.

Precipitation Trends (1871-1990) : India

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVERS AND HUMAN SYSTEMS

Anthropogenic

Anthropogenic
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report Forth Assessment

Waste Discharges

Waste Imports ? Potable Water Source? Economic Sector Fisheries ?

Waste Dumps?

Biodiversity?

Current Environmental stress in Developing Countries of World?

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Drinking Water?

Agriculture and Food Security?

Climate Change Impacts

Regional physio-graphic variations Environmental conditions Socio-Economic differences Susceptibility to different extreme

natural disastrous events

Shifts in climatic patterns Increased frequency Severity Significantly situation different climatic

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Understanding the Climate Changes Impacts

Primary Impacts Sea level rise Secondary Beach loss, Coastal Salinity, loss of vegetation, inundation/flooding of i d i /fl di f coastal infrastructure and settlements Tertiary Marine and estuarine life, coastal vegetation, shrimp farming and fi hi f i d fishing, coastal economy

Precipitation increase

Flooding, Flooding erosion increase Soil Salinity, Urban Salinity Salinity, Soil productivity, ground water contamination, drinking water loss, sanitation, sedimentation

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Source: Development and Climate, An Assessment of India, Chapter 5

STERN REVIEW: THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Allcountrieswillbeaffected Climatechangeisthegreatestmarketfailure Consideringthewiderrangeofrisks/,theestimatesofdamagecouldrisemorethan 20%ofGDP Actiononclimatechangewillalsocreatesignificantbusinessopportunities Threeelementsofpolicyarerequiredforaneffectiveglobalresponse 1.Pricing ofcarbon:tax,tradingorregulation 2.Policy tosupportinnovationandthedeploymentoflow carbontechnologies 2. Policy to support innovation and the deployment of lowcarbon technologies 3.Action toremovebarrrierstoenergyefficiencyandtoinform,educateand persuadeindividualsaboutwhattheycandotorespondtoclimatechange. Keyelementsoffutureinternationalframeworks: K l t ff t i t ti lf k 1.Emissionstrading 2.Technologycooperation 3.Actiontoreducedeforestation 3 A ti t d d f t ti 4.Adaptation

STERN REVIEW: THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

Conclusions on Climate Change Issues

Climate Change is Unavoidable to some extent High Confidence on some of climate change effects (Biological, temperature rise and precipitation) India due to it natural variability, socio-economic conditions etc has high variability socio economic etc. vulnerability towards the climate change impacts. Significant risk due to climate change The process of planning, design, development, operations, financing, management are to be integrated with the climate change issues Climate change implications on business are problem and not to be overlooked There are set of actions business has to undertake to reduce the risk of climate change on business Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation The Mitigation and Adaptation togather can lead to safer scenario.

Course Instructor: Er. Ashwani Kumar, Asstt. Prof.

Faculty of Planning, CEPT, Ahmedabad - 9

THANK YOU !

Ashwani Kumar
CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING & TECHNOLOGY KASTURBHAI LALBHAI CAMPUS University Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380 009 Phone no.: (079) 26302470, 26302740 Email : [email protected]