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Ata Preparation & Distribution Estimation: Generating Probability Distribution For Service Time

This document describes the preparation and distribution estimation of an ATA (arrival time analysis) simulation. It includes: 1. Generating probability distributions for service time and time between arrivals from sample data. 2. Fitting the distributions to common probability models using chi-square goodness of fit tests. 3. Calculating relative probabilities from the distributions. 4. Preparing the simulation measurements by mapping random numbers to arrival/service times. 5. Presenting the queueing simulation results including waiting times, idle times, and average metrics.

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Syifa Fitriani
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
50 views21 pages

Ata Preparation & Distribution Estimation: Generating Probability Distribution For Service Time

This document describes the preparation and distribution estimation of an ATA (arrival time analysis) simulation. It includes: 1. Generating probability distributions for service time and time between arrivals from sample data. 2. Fitting the distributions to common probability models using chi-square goodness of fit tests. 3. Calculating relative probabilities from the distributions. 4. Preparing the simulation measurements by mapping random numbers to arrival/service times. 5. Presenting the queueing simulation results including waiting times, idle times, and average metrics.

Uploaded by

Syifa Fitriani
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 21

ATA PREPARATION & DISTRIBUTIO

Time Between
Arrivals
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3

Service
Time
1
1

Generating Probability Distribution for Service Time

Service
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

Cumulative
Frequency
5
20
50
80
95
100

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1

Cumulative Probability Diagrams


Probability Distribution Estimated

Generating Probability Distribution for Time Between Arri

Time Between

Cumulative

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5

Arrivals
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Frequency
5
35
60
80
90
95
98
100

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1

Relative Probability Diagrams


Probability Distribution Estimated

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6

ION & DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION

Distribution for Service Time

Relative
Frequency
5
15
30
30
15
5
100

Relative
Probability
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.3
0.15
0.05
1

Cumulative
Probability
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.8
0.95
1

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
4

umulative Probability Diagrams

Relative Probability Diagrams

Normal Distribution

Distribution for Time Between Arrivals

Relative

Relative

Cumulative

Frequency
5
30
25
20
10
5
3
2
100

Probability
0.05
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.03
0.02
1

Probability
0.05
0.35
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
1

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
5

ability Diagrams

Cumulative Probability Diagrams


POISSON Distribution

ESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC RESULT


Time Between Arrivals

Result

Service Time

Result

Mean

3.511

Mean

3.750

Standard Error
Median

0.154
3

Standard Error

0.112

Mode
Standard Deviation

2
1.494

Median
Mode
Standard Deviation

4
3
1.500

Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Largest(1)
Smallest(1)
Confidence Level(95,0%)

2.231
0.708
1.047
6
2
8
330
94
8
2
0.306

Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Largest(1)
Smallest(1)
Confidence Level(95,0%)

1.177
-0.514
0.278
4
2
6
343
94
6
2
0.222

Fitting Input Distribution trough "Chi-Square Goodness of Fit" Te


1. Time Between Arrivals
Time Between Arrivals
(Minutes)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total

Relative
Frequency
5
30
25
20
10
5
3
2
100

Expected
Frequency
10.49
18.41
21.55
18.91
13.28
7.77
3.90
1.71

Average Value
Chi-Square Probability
Counted Chi Square
Tabel's Chi-Square

Poisson
Function
0.105
0.184
0.215
0.189
0.133
0.078
0.039
0.017

3.511
0.0763
12.8338
14.0671

Result Analysis :
H0 : Relative Prob. Fits to Poisson Distribution
H1 : Relative Prob. Fitless to Poisson Distribution
If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be rejected
If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be not rejected

fit

Result : Relative Frequency/probability

with Poisson Distribution

2. Service Time
Service Time
( Minutes )
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total

Relative
Frequency

5
15
30
30
15
5
100

Expected
Frequency
4.95
13.47
23.47
26.23
18.79
8.63

Average Value
Standard Deviation
Chi-Square Probability
Counted Chi Square
Tabel's Chi-Square
Result Analysis :
H0 : Relative Prob. Fits to Normal Distribution
H1 : Relative Prob. Fitless to Normal Distribution

Normal
Function
0.050
0.135
0.235
0.262
0.188
0.086

3.75
1.500
0.44
4.83
11.07

Norm Cum
Probability
0.033
0.122
0.309
0.566
0.798
0.933

If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be rejected


If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be not rejected
Result : Relative Frequency/probability

fit

with Normal Distribution

e Goodness of Fit" Test

Standardized
Z
-1.833
-1.167
-0.500
0.167
0.833
1.500

ETERMINE RELATIVE PROBABILITY TROUGH DISTRIBUTION CONCEPT

Average of Time between arrivals

3.511

Average of Time between arrivals


( Minutes )

Relative
Probability

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

0.105
0.184
0.215
0.189
0.133
0.078
0.039
0.017

Average Service Time

3.750

Standard Deviation

1.500

Service Time (X) (Minutes)

Standardize
(Z)

1
2
3
4
5
6

-1.833
-1.167
-0.500
0.167
0.833
1.500

Norm Dist
Relative
Cum. Prob Probability

0.033
0.122
0.309
0.566
0.798
0.933

0.033
0.088
0.187
0.258
0.231
0.136

REPARING THE MEASUREMENT OF SIMULATION


1.

Distribution of Time Between Arrivals


Time Between Arrivals

Relative

Cumulative

Random Number

( Minutes )

Probability

Probability

Generator

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

0.105
0.184
0.215
0.189
0.133
0.078
0.039
0.017

0.105
0.289
0.504
0.694
0.826
0.904
0.943
0.960

Service Time
( Minutes )

Relative
Probability

Cumulative
Probability

1
2
3
4
5
6

0.033
0.088
0.187
0.258
0.231
0.136

0.033
0.122
0.309
0.566
0.798
0.933

0
105
289
504
694
826
904
943

to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to

104
288
503
693
825
903
942
959

Service Time Distribution

2.

3.

Random Number
Generator

0
33
122
309
566
798

to
to
to
to
to
to

Time Between Arrivals Generated


Number of Custimer
( Unit )

Random Digit

Time Between
Arrivals
( Minutes )

Number of Customer
( Unit )

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

712
746
70
79
707
7
820
253
725
859
721
707
334
342
526
137

5
5
1
1
5
1
5
2
5
6
5
5
3
3
4
2

26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

32
121
308
565
797
932

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

4.

700
323
5
273
380
362
845
258
849

5
3
1
2
3
3
6
2
6

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

Customer

Random Digit

Service Time
( Minutes )

Customer

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

360
320
143
213
875
269
87
262
411
344
755
22
206
572
502
370
215
76
916
18
325
358
607
779
342

4
4
3
3
6
3
2
3
4
4
5
1
3
5
4
4
3
2
6
1
4
4
5
5
4

26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

Service Time Generated

LATION

Random Digit

Time Between
Arrivals
( Minutes )

414
513
387
482
11
904
587
552
346
40
946
153
590
203
126
776

3
4
3
3
1
8
4
4
3
1
8
2
4
2
2
5

149
947
494
722
726
626
822
519
282

2
8
3
5
5
4
5
4
2

Random Digit

Service Time
( Minutes )

183
223
817
125
21
332
714
559
862
393
674
191
505
537
25
779
138
837
379
281
108
921
592
91
81

3
3
6
3
1
4
5
4
6
4
5
3
4
4
1
5
3
6
4
3
2
6
5
2
2

UEUEING SIMULATION RESULT


Customer

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

time since
last arrival
(minutes)
0
5
1
1
5
1
5
2
5
6
5
5
3
3
4
2
5
3
1
2
3
3
6
2
6
3
4
3
3
1
8
4
4
3
1
8
2
4

Arrivals
Time
(Clock Time)

Service
Time
(Minutes)

Time
Service
Begins

Customers
Queueing
time
( minutes)

Time
Service
End

0
5
6
7
12
13
18
20
25
31
36
41
44
47
51
53
58
61
62
64
67
70
76
78
84
87
91
94
97
98
106
110
114
117
118
126
128
132

4
4
3
3
6
3
2
3
4
4
5
1
3
5
4
4
3
2
6
1
4
4
5
5
4
3
3
6
3
1
4
5
4
6
4
5
3
4

0
5
9
12
15
21
24
26
29
33
37
42
44
47
52
56
60
63
65
71
72
76
80
85
90
94
97
100
106
109
110
114
119
123
129
133
138
141

0
0
3
5
3
8
6
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
1
3
2
2
3
7
5
6
4
7
6
7
6
6
9
11
4
4
5
6
11
7
10
9

4
9
12
15
21
24
26
29
33
37
42
43
47
52
56
60
63
65
71
72
76
80
85
90
94
97
100
106
109
110
114
119
123
129
133
138
141
145

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

2
2
5
2
8
3
5
5
4
5
4
2
Total

134
136
141
143
151
154
159
164
168
173
177
179

4
1
5
3
6
4
3
2
6
5
2
2
186

145
149
150
155
158
164
168
171
173
179
184
186

11
13
9
12
7
10
9
7
5
6
7
7

149
150
155
158
164
168
171
173
179
184
186
188

283

The Average Waiting


Time

total time customers wait


total numbers of customers

Probability that Customer


has to wait in the queue

numbers of customers who wait


total number of customers

Probability of idle time


of the server

Total idle time of the Server


Total run time of simulation

Average of Service
Time

Total of service Time (minutes)


Total Number of Customer

Comparing with the expected value of service time that's shown on simulation
measurement tables gives :
Average Time between
Arrivals (Minutes)

Sum of Time Between Arrivals


number of Arrivals - 1

This result can be compared with the expected time between arrivals by finding mean of the
Discrete Univorm Distribution whose endpoints are 1 and 8
Average waiting time of
those who wait

Total time customer wait in Queue


Total number of customer

Average Customers
Spend in the system

Total time customer in the system


Total Number of Customer

N RESULT
Customer
in System
( Minutes )

Idle time
of
server
(minutes)

Number of
Customer
who wait

4
4
6
8
9
11
8
9
8
6
6
2
3
5
5
7
5
4
9
8
9
10
9
12
10
10
9
12
12
12
8
9
9
12
15
12
13
13

0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

15
14
14
15
13
14
12
9
11
11
9
9

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

469

46

283
50

5.66
Minutes

46
50

0.92

2
188

0.011

85
50

1.7
Minutes

simulation

3.77
Minutes

0.2

0.4

3.65
Minutes

283
46

4.5
Minutes
6.15
Minutes
9.38
Minutes

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

469
50

nding mean of the


8

179
49

10

15

20

25

12

16

20

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