Year

Quarter
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4

Period,t
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Deseasonalized
Demand,Dt Demand
8000
18963
13000
19487
23000
20010
34000
20534
10000
21058
18000
21582
23000
22106
38000
22629
12000
23153
13000
23677
32000
24201
41000
24725

Seasonal
Factor
0.421879
0.667125
1.149401
1.655772
0.474878
0.834034
1.040458
1.679227
0.518285
0.549054
1.322265
1.658261

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95806524
R Square
0.917889
Adjusted R Square
0.90420383
Standard Error
414.503312
Observations
8
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
6
7

Coefficients
Intercept 18438.9881
X Variable 1 523.809524

SS
MS
F
Significance F
11523809.52 11523810 67.07182 0.000179
1030877.976
171813
12554687.5
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
440.8087079 41.82991 1.25E-08 17360.37
63.95924968 8.189738 0.000179 367.3069

ignificance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Demand
Absolute
Dt
Level Lt
Forecast ft Error Et
Error At
8000
13000
23000
34000
19500
10000
20000
19500
9500
9500
18000
21250
20000
2000
2000
23000
21250
21250
-1750
1750
38000
22250
21250
-16750
16750
12000
22750
22250
10250
10250
13000
21500
22750
9750
9750
32000
23750
21500
-10500
10500
41000
24500
23750
-17250
17250

MSE

MAD

% error

90250000
9500
95
47125000
5750 11.11111
32437500 4416.667 7.608696
94468750
7500 44.07895
96587500
8050 85.41667
96333333 8333.333
75
98321429 8642.857 32.8125
1.23E+08 9718.75 42.07317

MAPE

TS

95
1
53.05556
2
37.9066 2.207547
39.44969 -0.93333
48.64308 0.403727
53.0359
1.56
50.14685 0.289256
49.13764 -1.51768

Demand
Dt

Period t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

8000
13000
23000
34000
10000
18000
23000
38000
12000
13000
32000
41000

alpha
Beta

Level Lt
12015.15
13007.69
14300.83
16438.63
19593.88
20321.73
21570.35
23122.71
26017.38
26262.23
26297.36
27963.02
30442.86

Trend Tt
1548.951
1437.669
1408.762
1554.57
1874.706
1645.334
1565.993
1563.266
1829.547
1512.608
1217.111
1306.822
1541.425

Forecast
Ft
13564.1
14445.36
15709.59
17993.2
21468.58
21967.06
23136.35
24685.98
27846.93
27774.84
27514.47
29269.84

Error Et

Absolute
Error

5564.103
1445.361
-7290.41
-16006.8
11468.58
3967.06
136.3476
-13314
15846.93
14774.84
-4485.53
-11730.2

5564.103
1445.361
7290.413
16006.8
11468.58
3967.06
136.3476
13314.02
15846.93
14774.84
4485.53
11730.16

MSE
30959237
16524153
28732810
85604033
94788912
81613688
69957246
83370484
1.02E+08
1.14E+08
1.05E+08
1.08E+08

MAD
5564.103
3504.732
-93.6497
-4071.94
-963.833
-142.018
-102.251
-1753.72
201.9054
1659.199
1100.587
31.35886

0.1
0.2

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.481327
R Square
0.231676
Adjusted R Square
0.154843
Standard Error
10666.88
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 3.43E+08 3.43E+08
10 1.14E+09 1.14E+08
11 1.48E+09

F
Significance F
3.01534 0.113127

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 12015.15 6565.013 1.830179 0.097147 -2612.61 26642.91 -2612.61 26642.91
X Variable 1 1548.951 892.0096 1.736474 0.113127
-438.57 3536.472
-438.57 3536.472

% Error

Upper 95.0%

69.55128
11.11816
31.69745
47.07883
114.6858
22.03922
0.592816
35.0369
132.0577
113.6526
14.01728
28.61013

MAPE
69.55128
40.33472
37.45563
39.86143
54.82631
49.3618
42.3948
41.47506
51.5398
57.75109
53.77529
51.67819

TS
1
2
-152.695
-7.44281
-43.3428
-322.089
-448.686
-33.7526
371.6574
54.13121
85.68151
3381.187

Demand
Dt

Period t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

8000
13000
23000
34000
10000
18000
23000
38000
12000
13000
32000
41000

Alpha
Beta
gamma
Period

Level Lt
Trend Tt
12015.1515 1548.95105
14282.0956 1760.15595
16981.792 2012.52402
20589.3038 2353.14997
24952.181 2765.90619
27112.6938 2954.29841
29569.8698 3170.47302
32160.2815 3397.80946
36619.9244 3809.79566
39089.3485 4018.64011
41511.6948 4220.68834
44513.8045 4478.69242
49255.7225
4908.0973

Forecast
Ft
4595.981
7088.844
10368.13
14926.51
19261.09
29283.95
38688.28
27050.55
37974.23
53167.15
73394.21
40929.58

Seasonal
Factor Ft
0.589792
0.508224
0.611793
0.685352
0.162273
0.244433
0.268519
0.389065
0.109404
0.10682
0.239314
0.281341

Seasonality Error Et
0.28715617
0.28649228
0.37320868
0.45191904
0.5385115
0.64060595
0.89443025
1.0880303
0.66907581
0.88090923
1.16257116
1.4980705
0.75566273
0.94940069
1.4057531
1.76445875
#DIV/0!

Absolute
Error

0.05
0.1
0.1
4

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.481327
R Square
0.231676
Adjusted R Square
0.154843
Standard Error
10666.88
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
1 343092657
10 1137824009
11 1480916667

MS
343092657
113782401

F
Significance F
3.01534 0.113127

CoefficientsStandard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 12015.15 6565.01289 1.83017942 0.097147 -2612.61

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

X Variable 1 1548.951

892.009599

1.73647352 0.113127

-438.57

3536.472

-438.57

MSE

MAD

% Error

MAPE

TS

Demand Based
on Regression
13564.10256
25579.25408
37594.40559
49609.55711
61624.70862
73639.86014
85655.01166
97670.16317
109685.3147
121700.4662
133715.6177
145730.7692

Upper 95.0%
26642.91

Deseasonalised
Demand

19750
20625
21250
21750
22500
22125
22625
24125

3536.472