Daily Technical Report: Sensex (16831) / NIFTY (5087)

Daily Technical Report
May 07, 2012
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (16831) / NIFTY (5087)

On Friday, our benchmark indices opened with a downside gap and traded with negative bias throughout the day to close with a loss of almost 2%. Indices have broken the major support level of 16920 /5135 and have closed below the same, which is sign of further weakness. On sectoral front, most of the sectors contributed in Fridays selloff, where Capital Goods, Banking and Metal counter were among the major losers. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters (A=744 D=2070) (Source www.bseindia.com) Formation The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 17100 / 5120 and 17220 / 5225, respectively. The 20-Week EMA is placed at 17200 / 5200 level. We are now witnessing a negative crossover in weekly 5 & 20 EMA. We are observing a continuation pattern which resembles a Falling Wedge. Indices have now tested 16830 / 5080 which is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the rise from 15135 / 4531 (Low on December 23, 2011) to 18524 / 5630 (High on February, 2012). Actionable points:
View Support Levels Resistance Levels Bearish 5000 - 4950 5110 5165 Source: Falcon
Trading strategy: We have been mentioning a trading range of 17530 to 16920 / 5345 to 5135 in the last couple of reports. Markets have now closed below 200-day SMA and 20-week EMA level on account of selling on Fridays session. We are now observing a negative crossover in weekly 5 & 20 EMA. The impact of this technical signal would be witnessed if indices sustain below Fridays low of 16776 / 5080. In this scenario, selling pressure may persist and indices are likely to drift lower to test 16600 16430 / 5000 4950 levels.
However it must be noted that at present markets are hovering around the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the steep rise from 15135 / 4531 to 18524 / 5630. The mentioned level is at 16830 / 5080 and considered as a decent technical support. In addition, we are observing that markets are moving in a continuation pattern called as Falling Wedge (Refer Exhibit 1). The break out from the said pattern will be confirmed only if indices close above the upper trend line level of 17300 / 5230. This may boost the buying interest among market participants and eventually indices may rally higher to test 17530 17664 17871 / 5342 5380 5445 levels. Market participants are advised to take positions post clarification of the GAAR issue as it would have a significant impact on trader sentiment.
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May 07, 2012
Bank Nifty Outlook - (9802)

On Friday, Bank Nifty for the second consecutive session opened with a downside gap in line with our benchmark indices and selling pressure was seen throughout the day. At this juncture, index has taken support near it 200 day SMA which coincides with the trend line support formed by joining the lows of March 7th, 2012 and March 29th, 2012. However, we are witnessing a confirmation of Lower Top and Lower Bottom formation on daily chart. Going forward a breach and close below the 200 day SMA will result in further selling pressure and the index may test 9579 level. On the upside 10000 10070 are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session.
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
Source: Falcon
Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 10000 10070 9699 9579 CIPLA 326 330 358
Positive Bias:
Stock Name CMP Positive Above Expected Target Remarks View will be negated below 315
Negative Bias:
Stock Name Ambuja Cement CMP 142.3 Negative Below 141 Expected Target 130 Remarks View will be negated above 146

May 07, 2012 Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,565 5,005 9,565 1,184 138 3,545 968 1,451 644 307 203 635 321 314 322 175 1,721 310 2,359 501 650 523 1,909 112 428 796 110 2,380 233 463 69 548 1,096 670 1,247 152 252 767 105 489 711 477 90 1,934 176 730 98 591 292 97 418 1,246 407 S1 16,698 5,046 9,684 1,196 140 3,580 989 1,477 666 309 208 643 327 320 326 179 1,734 316 2,388 507 655 530 1,943 114 431 815 112 2,411 235 474 70 556 1,122 678 1,264 153 256 785 106 494 719 486 92 1,965 178 740 100 596 297 99 425 1,261 411 PIVOT 16,910 5,112 9,876 1,209 143 3,615 1,020 1,518 703 312 217 656 337 325 332 182 1,748 321 2,432 515 663 542 2,000 116 435 834 114 2,454 240 487 71 567 1,158 690 1,278 156 262 814 107 500 729 500 94 2,017 183 755 102 602 300 100 436 1,278 415 R1 17,043 5,153 9,995 1,221 145 3,650 1,040 1,544 724 315 223 665 343 331 336 186 1,762 326 2,461 521 668 549 2,034 118 438 853 117 2,486 243 498 72 575 1,183 699 1,295 157 266 833 108 505 737 508 96 2,048 185 764 103 607 305 102 443 1,294 419 R2 17,254 5,218 10,187 1,234 148 3,685 1,071 1,585 762 318 232 678 353 335 343 189 1,776 331 2,505 528 675 561 2,091 121 441 872 119 2,529 248 510 73 586 1,219 711 1,308 160 272 861 110 511 747 522 98 2,100 189 779 105 613 309 103 453 1,311 424

May 07, 2012
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst
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Daily Technical Report

May 07, 2012

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Sensex (16831) / NIFTY (5087)