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HW4

1) The probability that the next mainframe computer crash will occur between 24 and 48 hours after the last crash is 0.249. This is calculated using the exponential distribution properties of the time between crashes, which has a mean of 36 hours. 2) The time intervals between dial-up connections to an internet service provider are exponentially distributed with a mean of 15 seconds. The probability that the third dial-up connection occurs after 30 seconds is 0.677. This is calculated using the Erlang distribution, which models the probability of combinations of exponential arrival processes.

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Shashikant Sharma
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518 views1 page

HW4

1) The probability that the next mainframe computer crash will occur between 24 and 48 hours after the last crash is 0.249. This is calculated using the exponential distribution properties of the time between crashes, which has a mean of 36 hours. 2) The time intervals between dial-up connections to an internet service provider are exponentially distributed with a mean of 15 seconds. The probability that the third dial-up connection occurs after 30 seconds is 0.677. This is calculated using the Erlang distribution, which models the probability of combinations of exponential arrival processes.

Uploaded by

Shashikant Sharma
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter 5, p.

198 problems 15 and 25 15) A mainframe computer crashes in accordance with a Poisson process with a mean rate of one crash every 36 hours. Determine the probability that the next crash will occur between 24 and 48 hours after the last crash. Let X represent the number of hours until a crash occurs. The distribution of time between crashes is exponentially distributed. So, if F(X) is the cumulative distribution of an exponential inter-arrival process with mean arrival time of 36 hours, the probability of a crash occurring between 24 and 48 hours after the last crash is:
1 1 48 g 24 g 24/36 48/36 36 36 F (48) F (24) = 1 e e = .513 .264 = .249 1 e = e

so, the probability of a crash in the interval specified is .249. 25) The time intervals between dial-up connections to an Internet service provider are exponentially distributed with a mean of 15 seconds. Find the probability that the third dial-up connection occurs after 30 seconds have elapsed. This problem is defining the probability of combinations of exponential arrival processes, so, just as trunk usage in a telephone network, the Erlang distribution is pertinent. In this case, the parameters of the Erlang distribution are: K = 1/15 (arrival rate) and X = 30 (interval) The probability that the third connection occurs within 30 seconds is:

F (30) = 1
i= 0

1 (30) 15

1 30 15 = .323 i!

Since the problem asks the probability that the third connection occurs after 30 seconds have elapsed, the complement of F(30) is the proper answer, so the probability is 1-.323 or .677.

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