This document analyzes India's export promotion function from 2000-2010. It uses linear and non-linear regression models to evaluate determinants of exports. Key independent variables like GDP, WPI and IIP were found to significantly impact exports at the 93% level based on the statistical analysis. The linear model was found to be a better fit than the non-linear model for explaining exports.
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This document analyzes India's export promotion function from 2000-2010. It uses linear and non-linear regression models to evaluate determinants of exports. Key independent variables like GDP, WPI and IIP were found to significantly impact exports at the 93% level based on the statistical analysis. The linear model was found to be a better fit than the non-linear model for explaining exports.
This document analyzes India's export promotion function from 2000-2010. It uses linear and non-linear regression models to evaluate determinants of exports. Key independent variables like GDP, WPI and IIP were found to significantly impact exports at the 93% level based on the statistical analysis. The linear model was found to be a better fit than the non-linear model for explaining exports.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
This document analyzes India's export promotion function from 2000-2010. It uses linear and non-linear regression models to evaluate determinants of exports. Key independent variables like GDP, WPI and IIP were found to significantly impact exports at the 93% level based on the statistical analysis. The linear model was found to be a better fit than the non-linear model for explaining exports.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
1rade ls a key facLor ln economlc developmenL A successful use of Lrade can boosL a counLrys developmenL Cn Lhe oLher hand openlng up markeLs Lo lnLernaLlonal Lrade may leave local producers swamped by more compeLlLlve forelgn producers1he currenL consensus ls LhaL Lrade developmenL and poverLy reducLlon are lnLlmaLely llnked SusLalned sLrong growLh over longer perlods ls sLrongly assoclaLed wlLh poverLy reducLlon whlle Lrade and growLh are sLrongly llnked CounLrles LhaL develop lnvarlably lncrease Lhelr lnLegraLlon wlLh Lhe global economy whlle exporLled growLh has been a key parL of many counLrles' successful developmenL sLraLegles LxporLs promoLlon sLraLegy ls ofLen ln accordance wlLh Lhe prlnclple of comparaLlve advanLage when a counLry speclallzes ln a producL whlch lL can produce compeLlLlvely 1he goods become avallable Lo Lhe communlLy of Lhe world aL cheaper prlces lndlas share ln Lhe global Lrade lncludlng Lrade ln merchandlse and servlces secLor has lncreased from 04 ln 198093 Lo 11 per cenL ln 2004 Lo 13 per cenL ln 2006 and wlll cross Lhe Lwo per cenL ln 2009 lorelgn Lrade as a percenLage of Cu (ln rupee Lerms) was over 23 ln 2006 up from 141 per cenL ln 199091
Some of Lhe ma[or conLrlbuLors ln Lhe LoLal exporLs by lndla 1 Mlnerals and meLals 2 lndlan l1 and l1LS8C 3 Lnglneerlng goods 4 Chemlcals and pharmaceuLlcals 3 Cems and [ewellery 6 lood and agro producLs 7 8eadymade garmenLs 8 1exLlles 9 Agro producLs 10LeaLher producLs
Exports
lndlas chlef exporLs lnclude compuLer sofLware agrlculLural producLs (cashews coffee) coLLon LexLlles and cloLhlng (readymade garmenLs coLLon yarn and LexLlles) gems and [ewellery cuL dlamonds handlcrafLs lron ore [uLe producLs leaLher goods shrlmp Lea and Lobacco 1he counLry also exporLs lndusLrlal goods such as appllances elecLronlc producLs LransporL equlpmenL llghL machlnery as well as chemlcal and englneerlng producLs lndla lmporLs rough dlamonds cuLs Lhem and exporLs Lhe flnlshed gems lndlas maln exporLs ln 2003 lncluded uSA 167 uAL 83 Chlna 66 Slngapore 33 uk 49 Pong kong 44 lndlas servlces conLrlbuLed abouL 33 of Lhe LoLal exporLs as of 201011
1oLal LxporLs by lndla Source lndlan MlnlsLry of Commerce and lndusLry
noLe lndlas exporLs as a percenLage of Cu ls seL Lo double slnce 1998 lndlas exporL growLh ls Lhe second fasLesL ln Lhe world afLer Chlnas
Cb[ect|ve
1he presenL sLudy alms Lo flnd ouL Lhe lnLernal and exLernal deLermlnanLs of exporL promoLlon ln lndla ln Lhls sLudy we esLlmaLe Lhe daLa uslng llnear and a nonllnear model evaluaLe Lhe regresslons lnLerpreL Lhe resulLs wlLh Lhe help of relevanL lndependenL varlables and flnd whlch meLhod glves us Lhe correcL analysls of daLa Data Source
1he yearly daLa of Lhe lndependenL and dependenL varlables have been collecLed from CMlL daLabase from 2000 Lo 2010
*lndla LxporLs from Lhe year 2000 Lo 2010 ln Lerms of rupees (from CMlL as on 30/09/2011) Wtbodology
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 300000 600000 700000 800000 900000 !ul98 uec99 Apr01 Sep02 !an04 May03 CcL06 leb08 !ul09 nov10 Lxports () LxporLs (?) 1aklng LoLal exporLs as Lhe dependenL varlable regresslon ls done over Lhe lndependenL varlables (Wl Cu nu lul eLc) boLh ln llnear and nonllnear fashlon Lo check whlch formulaLlon would glve correcL resulLs 1he process ls done wlLh Lhe help of SSS Lo glve us Lhe summary of Lhe esLlmaLlons Stat|st|ca| Ana|ys|s
lrom Lhe below Lable we can see LhaL Lhe lndependenL varlables Cu Wl and lul are slgnlflcanL enough Lo besL flL Lhe regresslon and even Lo deLermlne Lhe LoLal exporL value aL 93 slgnlflcanL level lrom Lhe below Lable we can see LhaL Lhere ls no auLoregresslon ln Lhe daLa as uurbln WaLson coefflclenL ls near Lo value 2 Model Summary Model 8 8 Square Ad[usLed 8 Square SLd Lrror of Lhe LsLlmaLe uurbln WaLson 1 1 1 0999 663489433 1968
Pere Lhe ad[usLed 8 square value 0999 whlch lndlcaLes Lhe besL flL of Lhe model
lrom Lhe below Lable we can observe LhaL all Lhe error Lerms are Laken lnLo conslderaLlon by seelng hlgh sLandard devlaLlons for Lhe reslduals
AnCvA Model
Sum of Squares df Mean Square l Slg 1 8egresslon 1896L+11 3 63210000000 1427 001 8esldual 88380000 2 44290000 1oLal 1897L+11 3
lrom Lhe Lable below lL's qulLe evldenL LhaL by conslderlng Lhe Lhree varlables all Lhe coefflclenLs obLalned are sLaLlsLlcally slgnlflcanL 1he pvalue of all Lhe coefflclenLs ls greaLer Lhan 003 (as 93 level of confldence ls consldered)
CoefflclenLs Model
unsLandardlzed CoefflclenLs SLandardlzed CoefflclenLs L Slg
lL ls also observed LhaL Lhe nonllnear regresslon funcLlon ls noL Lhe besL flL ln Lhls case for Lhe level of slgnlflcance of Lhe coefflclenLs ALLached ls Lhe sLaLlsLlcal resulLs obLalned by conslderlng dlfferenL varlables Regression Results.xls
WXWrWZUWs
O CMlL uaLabase (as on 30/09/2011) O 8eserve 8ank of lndla (for Lhe currency exchange raLes )
