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(Ass) Teory of Probability

The theory of probability aims to represent probabilistic concepts formally using the rules of mathematics and logic. There have been two main successful formulations: Kolmogorov's formulation which interprets sets as events and defines probability as a measure on a class of sets, and Cox's formulation which takes probability as a primitive and focuses on consistent probability value assignment. Both formulations result in the same probability laws with some technical differences. While other theories like Dempster-Shafer theory or possibility theory quantify uncertainty, they are fundamentally different from probability theory as commonly understood.

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101 views1 page

(Ass) Teory of Probability

The theory of probability aims to represent probabilistic concepts formally using the rules of mathematics and logic. There have been two main successful formulations: Kolmogorov's formulation which interprets sets as events and defines probability as a measure on a class of sets, and Cox's formulation which takes probability as a primitive and focuses on consistent probability value assignment. Both formulations result in the same probability laws with some technical differences. While other theories like Dempster-Shafer theory or possibility theory quantify uncertainty, they are fundamentally different from probability theory as commonly understood.

Uploaded by

Cheow Li Jong
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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TEORY OF PROBABILITY

Like other theories, the theory of probability is a representation of probabilistic concepts in formal termsthat is, in terms that can be considered separately from their meaning. These formal terms are manipulated by the rules of mathematics and logic, and any results are interpreted or translated back into the problem domain. There have been at least two successful attempts to formalize probability, namely the Kolmogorov formulation and the Cox formulation. In Kolmogorov's formulation (see probability space), sets are interpreted as events and probability itself as a measure on a class of sets. In Cox's theorem, probability is taken as a primitive (that is, not further analyzed) and the emphasis is on constructing a consistent assignment of probability values to propositions. In both cases, the laws of probability are the same, except for technical details. There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not compatible with the laws of probability as usually understood.

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena.[1] The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. If an individual coin toss or the roll of die is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.

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