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Lokpal Game

This document analyzes the options and potential outcomes of the ongoing debate around the Lokpal bill and black money in India. It outlines a matrix showing the moderate and aggressive stances civil society could take and the options for politicians to cooperate, delay, or fizzle out the bill. Based on this, it predicts that politicians will likely delay to avoid negative outcomes, and that the moderate stance of civil society will not work since the proposed bill was already moderate. Therefore, the two most probable outcomes are increased violence and anarchy, or new elections that could produce a new political structure with more service-oriented MPs. It suggests this is an opportunity for dramatic changes to India's governance over the next two years.

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Sujat Kamal
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38 views1 page

Lokpal Game

This document analyzes the options and potential outcomes of the ongoing debate around the Lokpal bill and black money in India. It outlines a matrix showing the moderate and aggressive stances civil society could take and the options for politicians to cooperate, delay, or fizzle out the bill. Based on this, it predicts that politicians will likely delay to avoid negative outcomes, and that the moderate stance of civil society will not work since the proposed bill was already moderate. Therefore, the two most probable outcomes are increased violence and anarchy, or new elections that could produce a new political structure with more service-oriented MPs. It suggests this is an opportunity for dramatic changes to India's governance over the next two years.

Uploaded by

Sujat Kamal
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lokpal bill and Black money: Why we may be looking

down the barrel of Anarchy and new political structure


before real lokpal bill emerges

Moderate stance Aggressive stance


Civil society
options→
Politicians
↓options
Delay Fizzle out or dud Violence, anarchy, loss
version of lokpal of power but not
necessarily leading to
lokpal bill
Cooperate Weak version of harsh version of lokpal
lokpal bill( loss of bill (loss of
black political wealth,income,luxuries)
income)

1 it should be clear that politicians will play the “delay” version as it leads to best
outcomes. Even with loss of power under “ delay-aggressive stance”

2. With full cooperation by politicians it is a dead end for them . Since loss of income,
wealth ensues added with punishment. And eventual loss of power, jail term since they
may be disqualified from contesting. Hence cooperation comes with no benefit absolutely
unless provision is made to implement lokpal bill prospectively.

3. Politicians best hope is moderate stance of civil society. However given the
transparency in its conduct, constitution of people involved, bribing civil society is not an
option. But moderate stance is ruled out since Lokpal bill mooted by Govt itself was
moderate and present response of civil society is reaction to a dud lokpal bill
drafted/proposed by government

4. Hence we are looking at two possible outcomes. A. Violence, escalating anarchy. B.


Elections that will throw up different political structure of new set of service oriented
MPs. It is likely in next elections we may see many more new faces if present on/off
agitation stretches for few months before one of UPA partners pulls the plug. This is the
opportunity that people must grab since it is better to have a political set up where Lokpal
is never needed.

5. We may be looking at 2 year process culminating in dramatic changes in India’s


governance structure /commitment. (Astrologically also we are also looking at dramatic
changes in next 2 years starting now).So don’t we fooled 2nd time by Governments nod

Some implicit assumptions have not been made explicit. Eg bulk of MPs have stake in
status quo or/and power really vests in hands of corrupt powerful few

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