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Assignment# 1

The document discusses decision analysis and modeling. It defines key terms like decision analysis, computer models, spreadsheet models, and management science. It also discusses the differences between descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive models. Finally, it addresses questions about modeling approaches, variables, framing effects, and examples of decision-making scenarios.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
3K views5 pages

Assignment# 1

The document discusses decision analysis and modeling. It defines key terms like decision analysis, computer models, spreadsheet models, and management science. It also discusses the differences between descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive models. Finally, it addresses questions about modeling approaches, variables, framing effects, and examples of decision-making scenarios.
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Q1: What is meant by the term decision analysis?

Ans: The problem faced by the decision makers in today’s competitive, fast paced
business environment are often extremely complex and can be addressed by numerous
possible courses of action. Evaluating these alternatives and choosing the best course of
action represents the essence of decision analysis.

Q2: Define the term computer model?


Ans: A computer model is a set of mathematical relationships and logical assumptions
implemented in a computer as a representation of some real-world decision problems or
phenomenon.

Q3: What is the difference between a spreadsheet model and a computer model?
Ans: spreadsheet modal (a computer modal implemented via a spreadsheet), a business
person can analyze decision alternatives before having to choose specific plan for
implementation.
A computer model is a set of mathematical relationships and logical assumptions
implemented in a computer as a representation of some real-world decision problems or
phenomenon

Q4: Define the term management science?


Ans:. Management science is a field of study that uses computers, statistics, and
mathematics to solve business problems.Management science is also sometimes referred
to as operation research or decision science.

Q5: What is the relationship between the management science and spreadsheet
modeling?
Ans:. Management science is a field of study that uses computers, statics and
mathematics to solve business problems but spread sheet modeling is a model in which a
person can analyze decision alternatives before having to choose a specific plan for
implementation.

Q6: What kinds of spreadsheet applications would not be considered management


science?
Ans:. everyone who uses spreadsheet today for model building and decision making is a
Practitioner of management science whether they realize it or not.

Q7: In what ways do spreadsheet models facilitate the decision making process?
Ans. Using a spreadsheet model a business person can analyze decision alternatives
Before having to choose a specific plan for implementation.

Q8: What are the benefits of using a modeling approach to decision making?
Ans:
• The models are usually simplified version of the object or decision problem they
represent
• It is often less expensive to analysis decision problem
• It often delivers the needed information on a more timely basis
• They models are frequently helpful in examination things that would be
impossible to do in reality
• Finally an d probably most important modal allow us to gain inside and
understanding about the object or decision problem under investigation

Q9: What is dependent variable?


Ans: Dependent variable is that which depends on other variables. For example
Profit= revenue – expenses
In above equation profit is dependent variable because it depends on revenue and
expenses

Q10: What is an independent variable?


Ans:The independent variable is that which does not depend on other variables. For
example
Profit= revenue – expenses
In above equation revenue and expenses are independent variable

Q11: Can a model have more than one dependent variable?


Ans: No

Q12: Can a decision problem have more than one dependent variable?
Ans: No

Q13: In what ways are prescriptive models different from predictive models?
Ans:
category Modal characteristics Management
Form of f(.) Values of independent science techniques
variable
Prescriptive models Know, well defined Known or under Liner programming,
decision maker’s networks, Integer
control programming, CPM,
Goal programming,
EOQ, Nonlinear
programming
Predictive models Unknown, well Known or under Regression Analysis,
defined decision maker’s control time series analysis,
discriminate analysis
Q14: In what ways are descriptive models different from predictive models?
Ans:
category Modal characteristics Management
Form of f(.) Values of independent science techniques
variable
Descriptive models Know, well defined Known or uncertain Simulation,
Queuing, FERT,
Inventory Models
Predictive models Unknown, well Known or under Regression Analysis,
defined decision maker’s control time series analysis,
discriminate analysis

Q15: In what ways are prescriptive models different from descriptive models?
Ans:
category Modal characteristics Management
Form of f(.) Values of independent science techniques
variable
Prescriptive models Know, well defined Known or under Liner programming,
decision maker’s networks, Integer
control programming, CPM,
Goal programming,
EOQ, Nonlinear
programming
Descriptive models Known, well Known or uncertain Simulation,
defined Queuting, PERT,
Inventory models

Q16: How would you define the words, description, prediction and perception?
Ans: The process of describing is known as description. A statement saying that
something will happen is called prediction and the ability to see, hear, or become aware
of some thing is called perception.

Q17: Identify one or more mental models you have used. Can any of them expressed
mathematically? If so, identify the dependent and independent variables in your
models?
Ans: when we buy a ready made dress, we will buy it according to our size and choice.

Q18: Consider the spreadsheet model shown in fig 1.2. Is this model descriptive,
predictive or prescriptive in nature, or it does not fall into any of these categories?
Ans: descriptive
Q19: What are steps in the problem -solving process?
Ans:
• Indentify problem
• Formulate and implement modal
• Analyze
• Test results
• Implement solution

Q20: Which step in the problem -solving process do you think is most important?
Why?
Ans: The first step is more important because if we can not find the problem then how
can we look forward.

Q21: Must a model accurately represent every detail of a decision situation to be


useful?
Ans: Yes a model must accurately represent every detail of a decision situation to be use
Useful because a model is useful as long as it is valid.

Q22: If you were presented with several different models of a given decision
problem, which would you most inclined to use? Why?
Ans: I will choice prescriptive models because form of function is known, well defined
and values of independent variables are known or under decision maker’s control.

Q23: Describe an example in which business or political organizations may use


encoring effects to influence decision making?
Ans: Nestle is one of the famous company of the world. It emphasis on its products that’s
its products are dairy products at the starting point

Q24: Describe an example in which business and political organizations may use
framing effects to influence decision making?
Ans: Government is thinking about to make a ring road around the Lahore boundaries to
provide the best to outsiders to come in Lahore and go out because the traffic is the main
problem for the Lahore citizen. But government is did make ring road yet because for it
government have to destroy their people homes who lives around the Lahore boundries

Q25: Suppose sharks have been spotted along the beech where you are vacationing
with a friend. You and your friend have been informed of the shark sightings and
are aware of the damage a shark attack can inflict on human flesh. You both decide
(individually) to go swimming any way. You are promptly attacked by a shark while
your friend has a nice time body surfing in waves. Did you make a good or bad
decision? Did your friend make a good or bad decision? Explain your answer?
Ans: That was bad decision that’s why they got bad outcome because they already know
about the sharks
Q26. Describe an example in which a well- known business, political or military
leader made a good decision that resulted in a bad outcome or a bad decision that
resulted in good outcome?
Ans: late Banzeer Bhutto former prime minister of Pakistan had took the decision to
come in Pakistan after a long period. It was a good decision. After some months of her
reaching in Pakistan she was killed by terrorist attack which was bad output.

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