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Creating Thriving and Sustainable Communities: A Community Discussion

The document discusses Montgomery County's growth forecasts through 2030. It forecasts 170,000 new jobs, 94,000 new houses, and a population increase of 213,800 people by 2030. While all age groups will increase in population, only those aged 65 and over will increase as a percentage of total population compared to other age groups. The forecasts aim to balance jobs and housing for the region at a ratio of 1.5 to 1.6 jobs per household by 2030.

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13 views

Creating Thriving and Sustainable Communities: A Community Discussion

The document discusses Montgomery County's growth forecasts through 2030. It forecasts 170,000 new jobs, 94,000 new houses, and a population increase of 213,800 people by 2030. While all age groups will increase in population, only those aged 65 and over will increase as a percentage of total population compared to other age groups. The forecasts aim to balance jobs and housing for the region at a ratio of 1.5 to 1.6 jobs per household by 2030.

Uploaded by

Planning Docs
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission

Creating Thriving and Sustainable


Communities
A Community Discussion

Growth & Planning

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Montgomery County’s Growth

Forecasts
• County forecasts: What are they and
how were they calculated?
• Regional growth forecasts
• Why we forecast growth
• Managing growth
• Questioning growth forecasts

Research & Technology Center Source: MNCPPC 2005 Census Update


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
County growth: past and future
How we forecast growth
• Master plans, sector plans, zoning.
• Approved development projects
• Historical zoning yields
• Market trends
• Municipalities
• Assumptions about:
• Redevelopment
• Environmental constraints
Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
County growth: past and future
Forecast growth: declining pace but
still substantial
90,000
80,000 Employment Household Growth
70,000
60,000
Round 7.0 Forecasts
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
80

30
75

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20

25
-10,000
19

20
to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to
to

to
70

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20
75

25
19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20
19

20
Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
In the next 25 years…
County growth: past and future
we will continue to grow.
170,000 new jobs
94,000 houses
213,800 people

Where’s the growth


going?
Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission

County’s forecast by age

All age groups add population but …


350,000
Household
Population 2005 2030
300,000
250,000
200,000

150,000
100,000
50,000
0
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
County’s forecast by age
…only the 65+ age group increases
compared to others
30% % of Total Household
Population
25% 2005 2030

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Regional forecast

Howard County

Anne Arundel County

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Regional forecasts: 2005 to 2030
Montgomery forecast: 2nd in
households, 3rd in jobs
DC

Arlington
Jobs Households
Alexandria

Montgomery

Prince George's County

Fairfax County

Loudoun County

Prince William

Frederick

Howard

Anne Arundel

0 50 100 150 200 250 300


Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Regional job/household ratio: 2005 to 2030
Montgomery forecasts balance in jobs
and housing for 2030
DC

Arlington

Alexandria

Montgomery
2005 2030
Prince George's County

Fairfax County

Loudoun County
Balance: 1.5 to 1.6
Prince William
jobs per household
Frederick

Howard

Anne Arundel

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5


Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Regional job/household ratio: 2005 to 2030

MWCOG forecast for Montgomery:


16,000 households over master plans
• MWCOG Round 7.0: region out of
balance (too many forecast jobs).
• Localities agreed to add housing to
forecast to approach balance.
• Montgomery added 16,000 units.

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Forecasting growth

Why we forecast growth


• Measures cumulative effect of adopted
plans and policies
• Shows “best guess” of future if trends
continue
• Input for new master plans, budgets &
capital programming, and planning
service delivery.

Research & Technology Center


Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Managing the pace of growth

Permitted growth: combination of


what and when
• What: amount, type and location of
development:
• General Plan
• Master plans, sector plans
• When: pace of growth
• Adequate public facilities ordinance
• Staging elements in master plans
• Outside forces: market demand,
innovations
Research & Technology Center
Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
Questioning growth

Forecasts are not destiny


• Forecasts are based on adopted plans,
current trends, assumptions about the
future.
• Changing any of these will change the
forecast.

Research & Technology Center

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