June 27 - July 22, 2011: and Staff
June 27 - July 22, 2011: and Staff
WEEK 1, DAY 1
MONDAY, JUNE 27
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 1: The Integrated
References: Analysis”, Cost – Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, (January 2010)
Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 2: A Strategy for the
Appraisal of Investment Projects”, Cost – Benefit Analysis for Investment
Decisions, (January 2010).
13:30 – 15:00 Alternative Investment Criteria and Estimation and Use of Debt
Service Ratios
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 4: Discounting and
References: Alternative Investment Criteria” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
Ley, Eduardo, “Cost-Benefit Analysis: Evaluation Criteria (Or: “Stay away from
the IRR"), KNOWLEDGE BRIEF FOR BANK STAFF, PRMED, The World Bank,
February 2008.
1
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 1, DAY 2
TUESDAY, JUNE 28
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 3: The Financial
References: Appraisal of Projects,” Cost –Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
2
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 1, DAY 3
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 29
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 3: The Financial
References: Appraisal of Projects,” Cost –Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
3
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 1, DAY 4
THURSDAY, JUNE 30
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Appendix.3.2, Chapter 3:
References: “The Financial Appraisal of Projects”, Cost – Benefit Analysis for Investment
Decisions, (January 2010)
Readings/ Harberger, AC., Jenkins, G., and Kuo, CY., “Chapter 3: The Financial
References: Appraisal of Projects,” Cost – Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
4
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 1, DAY 5
FRIDAY, JULY 1
10:45 – 12:30 The Importance of Scale and Timing and Adjusting for length
of life in Project Appraisal
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 5: Scale, Timing,
References: Length and Inter-Dependencies in Project Selection”, Cost – Benefit Analysis
for Investment Decisions, (January 2010).
5
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 1, DAY 6
SATURDAY, JULY 2
9:00 – 10:30 Micro-Economics II for Economic Valuation
WEEK 1, DAY 7
SUNDAY, JULY 3
Free Time
6
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 2, DAY 1
MONDAY, JULY 4
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P., and Kuo, C.Y., “Chapter 7: Principles Underlying
References: the Economic Analysis of Projects,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment
Decisions, (January 2010).
13:30 – 15:00 Structure and Overview of M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis
15:15 – 18:00 M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Traffic Demand and Toll
Design
7
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 2, DAY 2
TUESDAY, JULY 5
Readings/
References: Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 9: The Shadow Price of
Foreign Exchange and Non-Tradable Outlays,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment
Decisions, (January 2010).
Arnold C. Harberger, Notes on the Premia for Foreign Exchange and Non-Tradables
Outlays, University of California, Los Angeles, April 2003
Harberger, A.C., Kuo, C. Y., Jenkins, G.P. and Mphahlele, M.P., “The Economic Cost
of Foreign Exchange for South Africa,” The South African Journal of Economics, Vol.
71:2, June 2003, pp. 298-324.
10:45 – 12:30 Economic Prices and Conversion Factors for Tradable Goods
Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 10: Economic Prices for
Tradable Goods and Services,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
Teaching Note: “Estimation of Economic Prices for Traded Goods and Services,”
Queen’s University, Canada, (March 2007).
13:30 – 15:00 M-12 Toll Road Financial Analysis: Financing Units, Exchange Rates
and Toll Design
15:15 – 18:00 Participants Presentation M-12 Toll Road Financial and Sensitivity
Analysis
8
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 2, DAY 3
WEDNESDAY, JULY 6
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 11: Economic Prices
References: for Non-Tradable Goods and Services,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for
Investment Decisions, (January 2010).
Readings/ Graves, Philip E. and Sexton, Robert L., "Demand and Supply Curves:
References: Rotations versus Shifts" (March 2003). Atlantic Economic Journal, Volume
34, Number 3, September, 2006.
9
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 2, DAY 4
THURSDAY, JULY 7
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 13: Evaluation of
References: Stakeholder Impacts,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, (January
2010).
Harberger, AC., Jenkins G.P., and Kuo, C.Y., “Chapter 14: The Shadow Price of
Government Funds, Distributional Weights and Basic Needs Externalities”, Cost –
Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions, (January 2010).
Readings/ Harberger, A.C., Jenkins, G.P. and Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 8: The Economic
References: Opportunity Cost of Capital,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
Kuo, C. Y., Jenkins, G.P. and Mphahlele, M.P., “The Economic Opportunity Cost of
Capital for South Africa,” The South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 71:3,
September 2003, pp. 496-516.
10
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 2, DAY 5
FRIDAY, JULY 8
Readings/ Jenkins, G.P, “Economic aspects of foreign financing,” Queen’s University, Canada. (
References: February 2001)
13:30 – 15:00 Structure and Overview of M-12 Toll Road Stakeholder Analysis
Handout of Economic Analysis of M-12 Toll Road Project.
11
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
SATURDAY, JULY 9
WEEK 2, DAY 7
SUNDAY, JULY 10
12
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 1
MONDAY, JULY 11
9:00 – 10:30 Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor
Readings/ Harberger, A.C. and Jenkins, G.P., Kuo, C.Y, “Chapter 12: The Economic
References: Opportunity Cost of Labor,” Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions,
(January 2010).
Bicak, H., Jenkins, G.P., Kuo, C. Y., and Mphahlele, M.P., “An operational guide
to the Estimation of The Economic Opportunity Cost of Labour in South Africa,”
The South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 72:5, December 2004.
13
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 2
TUESDAY, JULY 12
14
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 3
WEDNESDAY, JULY 13
Readings/ Harberger, AC., Jenkins, G.P, and Kuo, C.Y., “Chapter 6: Dealing with
References: Uncertainty and Risk in Project Appraisal”, Cost – Benefit Analysis for
Investment Decisions, (January 2010)
Brigham, “Risk Analysis and the Optimal Capital Budget”, Chapter 10,
Canadian Financial Management, 3rd ed., Holt, Rinehart and Winston of
Canada.
Readings/ Mun, J., “Chapter 5: Peering into the Crystal Ball,” Applied Risk Analysis:
References: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004, pp.
91-105.
15
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 4
THURSDAY, JULY 14
Mun, Johnathan, “Chapter 10: The Search for the Optimal Decision,”
Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business, John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004, pp. 237-252.
Readings/ Harberger, A.C. and Jenkins, G.P., and Kuo, C. Y., “Chapter 15: Cost-
References: Effectiveness and Cost-Utility Analysis” Cost-Benefit Analysis for
Investment Decisions, (January 2010)
16
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 5
FRIDAY, JULY 15
17
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 3, DAY 6
SATURDAY, JULY 16
WEEK 3, DAY 7
SUNDAY, JULY 17
Free Time (AM)
18
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 4, DAY 1
MONDAY, JULY 18
Readings/ Lim, Henry and Jenkins, Glenn, Appendix of "An Integrated Analysis of a
References: Power Purchase Agreement."
Harberger, A.C., and Jenkins, G.P., (ed.), “Introduction: The Treatment of Risk
in Public Project Evaluation,” Cost-Benefit Analysis, Edward Elgar Publisher,
2002, pp. xxxviii to xlii.
Mun, Johnathan, “Chapter 9: Using the Past to Predict the Future,” Applied
Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business, John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., 2004, pp. 184-234.
19
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 4, DAY 2
TUESDAY, JULY 19
Leigland. J, and Shugart., C.,” Is the public sector comparator right for
developing countries? Appraising public-private projects in infrastructure”
Gridlines: World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Facility (PPIAF),Note
No.4, April 2006.
20
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 4, DAY 3
WEDNESDAY, JULY 20
21
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 4, DAY 4
THURSDAY, JULY 21
22
PROGRAM ON INVESTMENT APPRAISAL AND RISK ANALYSIS
WEEK 4, DAY 5
FRIDAY, JULY 22
23