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Review of The Binomial Distribution: by Young Jun Choi

The binomial distribution describes the number of successes in a fixed number of trials where the probability of success is the same for each trial. It requires independence of trials, a fixed number of trials n, and two possible outcomes (success/failure). The probability of k successes in n trials is calculated using the binomial probability formula. For large n, the binomial can be approximated as a normal distribution.

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46 views22 pages

Review of The Binomial Distribution: by Young Jun Choi

The binomial distribution describes the number of successes in a fixed number of trials where the probability of success is the same for each trial. It requires independence of trials, a fixed number of trials n, and two possible outcomes (success/failure). The probability of k successes in n trials is calculated using the binomial probability formula. For large n, the binomial can be approximated as a normal distribution.

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aimypolos
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Review of the

Binomial Distribution
By Young Jun Choi
Definition
• The Binomial Distribution is the
distribution of ___?___
Definition
• The Binomial Distribution is the
distribution of COUNTS.
• It counts the number of successes in a
certain number of trials.
For example, if one wanted to
find out how many free throws a
basketball player makes in one
game, one would…
COUNT the number of
shots he or she made.
Wait…so does that mean the
distribution of the shots made is
binomial?

The answer is…NO!


Why isn’t it a binomial
distribution if it depends on
counts?
To answer that question, we
must look at the Binomial
Setting
The Binomial Setting

• Fixed number of n trials


• Independence
• Two possible outcomes: success or failure
• Same probability of a success for each
observation
• If it FITS, it’s binomial.
Going back to the example, in
what ways did it not satisfy the
binomial setting?
• First of all, there is no set number of n trials. In a
basketball game, one cannot predict or set how
many free-throws the player is going to shoot.
• Second, there isn’t independence or a set
probability of a success in each shot they take.
The player can improve or get worse with more
shots taken.
What is a good example that
satisfies the binomial setting?
Although there are many examples
that satisfy the binomial setting, the
Coin Toss experiment is the example
we’re going to use.
How can you carry out this
experiment so it doesn’t go
against the binomial setting?
• You select how many times you want to toss
the coin.
• Decide which side (heads or tails) is going to
be the “success” when it lands.
• Make the coin “fair”, meaning that the
probability of landing either heads or tails is .5.
• Independence is a given, unless one can toss
the coin in a way that one outcome is favored
over the other.
To do the experiment, you can...

• Toss the coins physically and record your


observations
• Run a simulation on a calculator or on a
computer, provided by your teacher.
There is a formula that can help
us figure out the probabilities of
getting a certain number of
successes in a certain number of
trials.
What is that formula?
(Binomial Probability)

⎛n⎞ k
p(x = k) = ⎜ ⎟p (1− p)n−k
⎝k ⎠
Can you explain this formula?
(Test Question)
⎛n⎞ k n− k
p(x = k) = ⎜ ⎟p (1 − p)
⎝k ⎠
• To find the probability of k successes, you find
⎛ n ⎞is the number of sequences containing k
, which
⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
numberkof successes. Then, you multiply by the
probability of k successes and probability of n-k
failures.
If we were to toss 10 coins,
the probability of getting 6
successes is...
⎛10 ⎞ 6 4
p(x = 6) = ⎜ ⎟(.5) (.5) ≈ .2051
⎝6 ⎠
How would we do this on the
calculator?
• You can go to the MATH key, then to PRB
and find the function nCr. This is the same
as ⎛⎜ n ⎞⎟ . Put the value of n before nCr and
the⎝number
k⎠ of successes you want after nCr.
Then you multiply by .
k n− k
• Or you can use the function p (1−binompdf.
p)
Binompdf(# of trials, p, x)
What’s the difference between
binompdf and binomcdf?
• If we were looking for the probability of
getting 6 heads out of 10 tosses, then
binompdf only finds the likelihood of
getting 6 successes.
• Binomcdf adds up all the probability of
successes up to that certain number, 6 in
this case, of successes, starting from 0 to k.
What is the mean and the standard
deviation of the binomial
distribution?
μ = np
σ = np(1 − p)
Is this distribution normal?

No, because it depends on counts and


counts are related to proportions.
Proportions are NEVER normal.
What happens when n gets so
large that it becomes awkward to
use the formula?
You use Normal Approximation for
binomial distributions.
When can we use Normal
Approximation?
• When np is greater than or equal to 10 and n(1-p)
is greater than or equal to 10.
• Once this requirement is met, you can treat it like
a normal distribution by using normcdf on your
calculator.
• But when you use normal approximation, the
probability you get is an approximation, while the
probability you get through the formula is exact.
Summary
• Binomial distribution depends on counts (never
normal).
• FITS: the binomial setting
• The formula: ⎛n⎞
p(x = k) = ⎜ ⎟p k (1− p) n−k
⎝k ⎠
• Parameters μ = np
• Probability obtained
σ = through
np(1 − p)formula: exact
• Probability obtained through approximation: not
exact

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