35 7 5 1

 
1. p(Red) = 40 8 p(Black) = 40 8
1 7
 8  1   7 
    
(a) (i) p(one black) =  1  8   8  (M1)(A1)
= 0.393 to 3 sf (A1) 3

(ii) p(at least one black) = 1 – p(none) (M1)

0 8
 8  1   7 
    
= 1 –  0  8   8  (A1)
= 1 – 0.344
= 0.656 (A1) 3

400
(b) 400 draws: expected number of blacks = 8 (M1)
= 50 (A1) 2
[8]

4 8 4
 8  1   1 
    
2. (a) p (4 heads) =  4  2   2  (M1)
8
8 7 65  1 
 
= 1 2  3  4  2 
70
= 256  0.273 (3 sf) (A1) 2

3 8 3 8
 8  1   1  87 6  1 
       
(b) p (3 heads) =  3  2   2  1 2  3  2 
56
= 256  0.219 (3 sf) (A1) 1

(c) p (5 heads) = p (3 heads) (by symmetry) (M1)

p (3 or 4 or 5 heads) = p (4) + 2p (3) (M1)
70  2  56 182

= 256 256
 0.711 (3 sf) (A1) 3
[6]

1
3. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100
38
P(TV) = 100 (A1) (C2)

13
(b) P(TV  Boy) = 46 (= 0.283 to 3 sf) (A2) (C2)
Notes: Award (A1) for numerator and (A1) for
denominator. Accept equivalent answers.
[4]

4. (a) Area A = 0.1 (A1) 1

(b) EITHER Since p (X  12) = p (X  8), (M1)

then 8 and 12 are symmetrically disposed around the(M1)(R1)
mean.
8  12
Thus mean = 2 (M1)
= 10 (A1)
Notes: If a candidate says simply “by symmetry  =
10” with no further explanation award [3 marks] (M1,
A1, R1). As a full explanation is requested award an
additional (A1) for saying since p(X < 8) = p(X > 12)
and another (A1) for saying that the normal curve is
symmetric.

2
  12   
Z  
OR p (X  12) = 0.1  p   = 0.1 (M1)
 12   
Z  
 p   = 0.9
 8
Z  
p (X  8) = 0.1  p    = 0.1
  8
Z  
 p   = 0.9 (A1)
12     8

So   (M1)
 12 –  =  – 8 (M1)
  = 10 (A1) 5

 12  10 
 
(c)     = 0.9 (A1)(M1)(A1)
 12  10 
 
Note: Award (A1) for    , (M1) for
standardizing, and (A1) for 0.9.
2
  = 1.282 (or 1.28) (A1)
2  2 
 or 
 = 1.282  1.28  (A1)
= 1.56 (3 sf) (AG) 5
Note: Working backwards from  = 1.56 to show it
leads the given data should receive a maximum of [3
marks] if done correctly.

 11  10 
Z  
(d) p (X  11) = p  1.561  (or 1.56) (M1)(A1)
Note: Award (M1) for standardizing and (A1) for
 11  10 
 
 1.561  .

= p (Z  0.6407) (or 0.641 or 0.64) (A1)

= (0.6407) (M1)
= 0.739 (3 sf) (A1) 5
[16]

3
5. (a) Let X be the lifespan in hours
X ~ N(57, 4.42)

a 0 b

(i) a = –0.455 (3 sf) (A1)

b = 0.682 (3 sf) (A1)

(ii) (a) P (X > 55) = P(Z > –0.455)

= 0.675 (A1)

 2 3 
 Z 
(b) P (55  X  60) = P  4.4 4.4 
 P(0.455  Z  0.682)
 0.6754 + 0.752 – 1 (A1)
= 0.428 (3sf) (A1)
OR
P (55  X  60) = 0.428 (3 sf) (G2) 5

(b) 90% have died  shaded area = 0.9 (M1)

0 (A1)
Hence t = 57 + (4.4 × 1.282) (M1)
= 57 + 5.64 (A1)
= 62.6 hours (A1)
OR t = 62.6 hours (G3) 5
[10]

4
6. (a) U

B
A

(A1) (C1)

(b) n(A  B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A  B)

65 = 30 + 50 – n(A  B)
 n(A  B) = 15 (may be on the diagram) (M1)
n(B  A) = 50 – 15 = 35 (A1) (C2)

n( B  A) 35

(c) P(B  A) = n (U ) 100 = 0.35 (A1) (C1)
[4]

22
7. (a) P = 23 (= 0.957 (3 sf)) (A2) (C2)

5
(b)
R
21 3
24 23

R
G
22
25

e tc
3
25
G
(M1)
OR
P = P (RRG) + P (RGR) + P (GRR) (M1)
22 21 3 22 3 21 3 22 21
       
25 24 23 25 24 23 25 24 23 (M1)(A1)
693
= 2300 (= 0.301 (3 sf)) (A1) (C4)
[6]

6
8. Sample space ={(1, 1), (1, 2) ... (6, 5), (6, 6)}
(This may be indicated in other ways, for example, a grid or a tree diagram,
partly or fully completed)
1
2
3.
..
1
1
2
2 3.
..

3
4
5

6
6  5  4  3  2 1
(a) P (S < 8) = 36 (M1)
7
= 12 (A1)
OR
7
P (S < 8) = 12 (A2)

11 6 111
(b) P (at least one 3) = 36 (M1)
11
= 36 (A1)
OR
11
P (at least one 3) = 36 (A2)

P(at least one 3  S  8)

(c) P (at least one 3S < 8) = P S  8 (M1)
7
36
7
= 12 (A1)
1
= 3 (A1)
[7]

7
9. (a) P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)  P (A  B) = P (A) +
P (B) – P (A  B) (M1)
3 4 6
 –
= 11 11 11 (M1)
1
= 11 (0.0909) (A1) (C3)

(b) For independent events, P (A  B) = P (A) × P (B) (M1)

3 4

= 11 11 (A1)
12
= 121 (0.0992) (A1) (C3)
[6]

10. (a)
1
4 L

7
W
8
3
4 L'
3
5 L
1
8
W '
2
5 L' (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1) 4
 7 1 3
 , , 
Note: Award (A1) for the given probabilities  8 4 5 
in the correct positions, and (A1) for each bold
value.

7 1 1 3
  
(b) Probability that Dumisani will be late is 8 4 8 5 (A1)(A1)
47
= 160 (0.294) (A1)
(N2) 3

8
 P(W  L)
(c) P(WL) = P( L)
7 1

P(W  L) = 8 4 (A1)
47
P(L) = 160 (A1)
7
32
47
P(WL) = 160 (M1)
35
= 47 (= 0.745) (A1) (N3) 4
[11]

80  8 
P ( A)     0.381
11. (a) (i) 210  21  (A1) (N1)

35  1 
P (year 2 art)     0.167 
(ii) 210  6  (A1) (N1)

(iii) No (the events are not independent, or, they are dependent)(A1) (N1)
EITHER
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B) (to be independent) (M1)
100  10 
P (B)    0.476 
210  21  (A1)
1 8 10
 
6 21 21 (A1)

OR
P(A)=P(A B)
(to be independent) (M1)
35
P (A B) 
100 (A1)
8 35

21 100 (A1)

9
 OR
P(B)=P(B A)
(to be independent) (M1)
100  10 
P (B)    0.476  P (B A)  35
210  21 , 80 (A1)
35 100

80 210 (A1) 6
Note: Award the first (M1) only for a mathematical
interpretation of independence.

(b) n (history)  85 (A1)

50  10 
P(year 1 history)     0.588 
85  17  (A1) (N2) 2

 110 100   100 110   110 100 

       2  
(c)  210 209   210 209   210 209  (M1)(A1)(A1)
200
   0.501
399 (A1)(N2) 4
[12]

12. (a) Independent  P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B) (= 0.3  0.8) (M1)

= 0.24 A1 N2

(b) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) (= 0.3 + 0.8  0.24) M1

= 0.86 A1 N1

(c) No, with valid reason A2 N2

eg P(A  B)  0 or P(A  B)  P(A) + P(B) or correct
numerical equivalent
[6]

10
13. (a) For using  p 1 (0.4 + p + 0.2 + 0.07 + 0.02 = 1) (M1)
p = 0.31 A1 N2

(b) For using E(X) =  xP X  x  (M1)

E(X) = 1(0.4) + 2(0.31) + 3(0.2) + 4(0.07) + 5(0.02) A1
=2 A2 N2
[6]

14. (a) For summing to 1 (M1)

eg 0.1 + a + 0.3 + b = 1
a + b = 0.6 A1 N2

(b) evidence of correctly using

E( X )   x f ( x) (M1)
eg 0  0.1 + 1  a + 2  0.3 + 3  b, 0.1 + a + 0.6 + 3b = 1.5
Correct equation 0 + a + 0.6 + 3b = 1.5 (a + 3b = 0.9) (A1)
Solving simultaneously gives
a = 0.45 b = 0.15 A1A1 N3
[6]

11