| You can only use the faculty approved calculator with sticker.

Pens, pencils, erasers, and straight edges only. No crib sheets. NO CELL PHONES.
If you have a difficulty you may try making REASONABLE assumptions. State the
assumption and how that assumption limits your answer. Justify your responses.
Good Luck
1. In a certain school there are only Electrical Engineering students, Civil
Engineering Students and Mechanical Engineering students. These students must
take a class where they give a presentation. Students feel that the order of
presentations is very important.
a. If there are 9 students in the class and all give their presentation on one
day how many different ways can you arrange the order of the
presentations? (1 mark)
b. If there are 18 students in the class but only 9 can give their presentation
on Day 1, how many different orders of presentation can you have for Day
1. (2 marks)
c. If the class contains 7 Mechanicals, 6 Civils and 5 Electricals and we
require that the 9 individuals who give their presentations on Day 1 must
include 3 Mechanicals, 3 Civils and 3 Electricals, how many different
orders of presentation are there for Day 1? (4 marks)
d. Suppose that all of the presentations that you counted in c) part are equally
likely. Suppose that you are one of the 5 Electrical Students. What is the
probability that you will be the first one to give a presentation on Day 1?
(3 marks)
2. Your factory receives 3 lots of screws. There are 100 screws in Lot 1, 200 in Lot
2 and 300 in Lot 3. Lot 1 contains 1% defective screws. Lot 2 contains 2%
defective screws and Lot 3 contains 3 % defective screws. All the screws are
dumped in one bin and then a screw is selected randomly.
a. What is the probability that the selected screw came from Lot 1? (3
marks)
b. What is the probability that the selected screw was defective? (3 marks)
c. If the screw was defective what is the probability that it came from Lot 2?
(4 marks)
3. You work as a lobster fisherman. You set several traps every day. There is a
probability of 0.08 that any one of your traps will catch a lobster on a given day.
Assume that whether or not a trap catches a lobster is independent of what
happens with the other traps.
a. If you set 10 traps, what is the probability that you will catch more than 2
lobsters? (3 marks)
b. If you catch more than 2 lobsters your boss will let you eat one for dinner.
(Note that even if you catch 5 lobsters in one day you still only get one for
dinner.)What is the probability that you will be able to eat a lobster in the
next 3 days? (4 marks)
c. What is the expected number of days you will have to wait until you will
have had 2 lobster dinners? (3 marks)
1. Statistical data gathered for Toyota cars that are returned for mechanical failure
within their first year of usage show that Engine, Sensors and Breaks are the three
main sources for the mechanical failures. Toyota's data provides the following
information for:
E = {Engine failures}
B = {Break failures}
S = {Sensor problems}
P(E) = 0.35
P(EnB') = 0.29
P(BnS) = 0.09
P(B'nS') = 0.25
P((EnS)/B) = 0.2
P(S/E) = 9/35
P(B') = 0.75
P(E/B) = 6/25

For the given information answer the following questions (1 mark each)
a) P(EnS) =?
b) P(B) = ?
c) P(EnSr\B') =?
d)P(EnSnB) =?
e) P(BnE') =?
(HINT: A Venn diagram may be useful here)

2. Probability distribution for the cm of snow fall in Montreal in a typical light snow
fall, X, is given by:
2x - 2
l<x<4
k
/(*)
20 -2x
4<x<10
54
If the snow removal cost to city is given by the random variable Y defined as
Y = 5 0 0 0 * - 2 0 0 0 , find:
a) the value of k (2 marks)
b) the expected value and the variance of the random variable Y (3 marks)
3. A very large batch of components has arrived at a distributor. The batch can be
thought of as "acceptable" only if the portion of defective components is 10% or less.
The distributor decides to randomly select 10 components and test them. The
distributor will label the entire batch as "acceptable" if at most two parts are
defective.
a. If the actual portion of defectives in a batch is 5% calculate the probability of
incorrectly labeling that batch as not acceptable. (1 marks)
b. If the actual portion of defectives in a batch is 15% calculate the probability of
incorrectly labeling the batch as acceptable. (1 marks)
c. If the actual portion of defectives in a batch is 15%, what is the expected number
of defectives in the sample of 10? (1 marks)
d. The distributor is concerned that errors in labeling of batches is costing too much,
in particular the labeling of batches as acceptable when they have more than 10%
defectives is very costly. Make concrete suggestions on how things might be
improved. Be specific. (2 marks)

4. A certain store has an express cashier and a super-express cashier. Let X x be the
number of customers in the express cashier line. Let X 2 be the number of cashiers in the
super-express cashier line. Suppose that the joint pmf of X and X
x 2 is

0 1 2 3
0 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.00
1 0.06 0.15 0.05 0.04
2 0.05 0.04 0.10 0.06
3 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.07
4 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06

Thus X takes on values 0,1,2 and 3 and X

a. Find the probability that there is exactly one person in each line. (1 mark)
b. Let A be the event that there are at least two more customers in one of the lines
than the other. Find the probability of event A. (2 marks)
c. What is the probability that the total number of customers in both lines is 4. (2
marks)
d. If we know that there are two people in the express cashier line what is the
probability that there are at least 3 people in the super express cashier line? (2
marks)
e. Are X and X independent? Justify your response. (3 marks)
l 2

Total 25 marks
Some Useful Equations
P(B/A)P(A)
P(A/B) =
P(B)
f{x-y)
f(*/y)
Ky)
* =E[(x-ju) ]
2
x
z

a
xy =E[(x-Ju )(y-M )] x y

xy
P.xy
(7 (J
x y

P(ju - ka < X < ju + kcr) > 1 -

n(n +1)
/=i 2
\-r ^_ n

Y- = e x

P 1

fid = pq x

f(x) =
X!

1 2a 2

2;rcx
CO

j > - W x = (a-l)!
0

/( ) = l Tx e