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Reported by:
COSCOS, Joseph Noel O.
BSCE ƛ 4

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M o graphical techniques hich are commonly used in
planning and controlling projects:
 Critical Path Method (CPM)
 Program Evaluation and Revie Mechnique
(PERM)

Mhree pertinent factors of concern in a project:

 Resource
 Mime
 Cost
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Mhis is used hen there is existence of
uncertainties associated ith completion
times of activity of the project.

Its application is emphasized in research

and development ork.
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Mhis is used here one is certain about
the duration times of activities.

It is commonly used to manage

construction project.
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Both the CPM and the PERM find
application in areas such as high ay
construction, po er generation, plant and
oil refinery maintenance, shipbuilding and
aerospace projects.
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— project has to posses specific
characteristics for these techniques to be
most applicable.

Mhese characteristics are as follo s:

i. When a job is started, it has to continue
ithout any interference until its full
completion.
ii. Jobs or tasks are defined such that their
completion ill result in the end of the
project.
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iii. Jobs or tasks are ordered in a specified
sequence in hich they follo each
other.
iv.Jobs or tasks are independent. In other
ords, ithin a defined sequence they
can be performed, started and stopped
independently.
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Both these methods roughly involve the follo ing
steps:
i. Decomposing a project into individual job or
tasks.
ii. —rranging the individual jobs or task into a
logical net ork.
iii. Estimating the time duration of each individual
job or task.
iv. Developing a schedule.
v. Finding out those critical jobs or tasks hich
control the completion of the project.
vi. Redistributing resources or funds so that the
schedule is improved.
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SMEP 1
Decompose project into individual job or tasks
and identify each of them.

SMEP 2
Find out activities or tasks sequence and develop
net ork.

SMEP 3
Estimate each activities duration time
 SMEP 4
Obtain expected duration time of each activity

SMEP 5
Determine each activity time variance

SMEP 6
Find out the critical path of the net ork under
study.

Step 7
Calculate project completion probability on the
specified time (date).
 m/
Mhe PERM Net ork requires three estimates
for the duration time each activity. Mhere
estimates may be judgments of three
individual persons.

Mhree estimates are the follo ing:

i. Mhe optimistic time
ii. Mhe pessimistic time
iii. Mhe most likely time
B—CK
 m0
—n activity or a job expected time duration
(i.e. expected time to complete an activity or
task)is given by:

Where:
Me is the expected duration of an activity.
Mo is the optimistic duration of an activity.
Mp is the pessimistic duration of an activity.
Mm is the most likely duration of an activity.
 m01 2m
—n activity optimistic and pessimistic
duration time estimates are 50 days and
80 days, respectively. In addition, the
most likely duration time estimate for the
activity is 60 days.

Find the expected duration time.

 m01 2m
—ctivity duration time estimates are as follo s:
Mo = 24 days
Mp = 30 days
Mm = 24 days

Solving:

B—CK
 m3
Mhis step is concerned ith calculating
the variance of each activity duration
time. Mhe follo ing formula is used to
determine the variance:

Where:
is the variance of the activity duration
time
 m31 2m
—n activity optimistic and pessimistic
duration time estimates are 50 days and
80 days, respectively. In addition, the
most likely duration time estimate for the
activity is 60 days.

Find the variance of the activity.

 m31 2m
˜iven:
Mo = 50 days
Mp = 80 days

Solving:

B—CK
 m4
Mhe critical path of the net ork is given
by the longest path of the net ork. Mhe
duration time of the project is given by
the total sum of the activity expected
duration times of the longest path. Mhe
term Ơcritical is used to signify that if any
delay in the completion of activities along
the longest path occurs then the hole
project ill be delayed.
B—CK
 m5
Mhis is concerned ith calculating the project
completion probability on the specified time
(date). Mhe follo ing transformation formula is
used:

Where:
S is the total sum of variances of the activity time
along critical path
tec is the last net ork activity's earliest expected
completion time.
Md is the due date for the completion of the project
  m66,
4 0.00003
3.5 0.00023
3 0.00135
2.5 0.006
2 0.02
1.5 0.07
1 0.16
0.5 0.31
0 0.5
0.5 0.69
1 0.84
1.5 0.93
2 0.98
2.5 0.99
3 0.999
3.5 0.9998
4 0.9999
 m51 2m
Mhe PERM net ork of a project contains nine
activities. —fter the analysis it is found that
the last net ork activity's earliest expected
completion time is 44 days. In addition, the
total sum of the variances of the activity
duration times along critical path is 16. the
due date for the completion of the project is
52 days. Calculate the probability that the
project ill be accomplished on due date or
specified time.
 m51 2m
˜iven:
Md = 52 days
s = 16 days
tec = 44 days

Solving:
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Mhe follo ing steps are associated ith
the construction and analysis of a CPM
net ork:
i. Decompose the project into individual
jobs or task and identify each of them.
ii. Find out activitiesƞ or tasksƞ sequence
and develop the net ork.
iii. Estimate each activityƞs duration time.
iv.Find out the critical path of the
net ork under study.
,6* (** *"
 mm
 !.

CIRCLE
It is used to represent an event.
Broadly speaking the circle represents
an unambiguous point in time in the
projectƞs life.
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 !.
CIRCLE ith DIVISIONS
It also represents an event. Ho ever, this circle is
divided into three portions. Mhe top portion is used
to label the event ith a number. Mhe bottom
portion is divided into t o halves. Mhe left is used
for the latest event time hereas the remaining
portion is used for the earliest event time.

Event
Number
Latest Earliest
event event
time time
,6* (** *"
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 !.

Earliest Event Mime

Mhis is the earliest time in hich an event
can be reached; in other ord the earliest
time in hich an activity can be completed.

Latest Event Mime

Mhis is the latest time in hich an event can
be reached ithout delaying the completion
of the project.
,6* (** *"
 mm
 !.

CONMINUOUS —RROW
Mhis represent an activity. —n activity
al ays begins from a circle and ends at
a circle. In addition, to accomplish an
activity it requires time, man po er
and money.
,6* (** *"
 mm
 !.

DOMMED —RROW
Mhis represent a dummy activity. It is
an imaginary activity and does not
consume any money, man po er or
time. More clearly, it is accomplished in
zero time.
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Mhis is the path hich is the longest path
from one end (i.e. from the first event) of a
CPM or a PERM net ork to another end (i.e.
to last event). For the completion of the
project on time, the activities along the
critical path have to be accomplished on
time; other ise the project ill be delayed.
Mhe total time of the critical path is given by
the largest sum of expected activity time of
all the path hich originated from the first
event and terminate at the last event.
' 7
Explain the dummy activity ith the aid of
a CPM net ork diagram.
F
D

E C

—
' 8
— small construction project as broken do n into eight
activities as sho n in the table belo . Construct the
CPM net ork for the project and determine its critical
path.
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— 14  10
B 13  15
C 12  5
D 34 13 20
E 45 34, 14 25
F 35 13 10
˜ 25 12 5
H 56 45, 35, 25 30
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Event Event
j k
t1 t2 Y (j,k) t1 t2
(j) (j) (k) (k)

Where:
t1(j) is the latest event time of the event j.
t2(j) is the earliest event time of the event j.
t1(k) is the latest event time of the event k.
t2(k) is the earliest event time of the event k.
Y (j,k) is the expected completion time of the
activity bet een event j and k.
** 9*
FORMUL— —:
Latest start time = t1(k) ƛ y (j,k)

FORMUL— B:
Latest finish time = t1(k)

FORMUL— C:
Earliest finish time = t2(j) + y (j,k)

FORMUL— D:
Earliest start time = t2(j)

FORMUL— E:
Motal Float = t1(k) ƛ t2(j) ƛ y(j,k)
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Mhis is basically a four step approach:
i. Construct net ork.
ii. Determine the earliest event time, t2,
of each event of the net ork. Mhis can
be determined by making a for ard
pass of the net ork.
iii. Determine the latest event time, t1, of
each event of the net ork. Mhis can be
determined by making a back ard
pass of the net ork.
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iv. Choose those net ork event hose t1=t2.
If the net ork has only one path ith event
satisfying the condition t1=t2, then such a
path is critical. Ho ever, if there is more
than one such path satisfying the t1=t2
condition then go to next step.
v. For each path hich satisfies the condition
of step(iv), determine the total floats for all
its activities. Sum the total floats of each
path activities. Mhe path hich has the least
sum of the total float is the critical path of
the net ork.
2m 1 Determine the critical path
4 by calculating each eventƞs
earliest and latest times.

25
10 20

1 3 5 30 6
15 10

5 5
2
2m 1
— small research and development project
is composed of six activities. Mhese
activities along ith their estimated times
are identified in the Mable. Construct the
PERM net ork for the project and
determine the project probability of
completion time. Mhe project due date is
54 days.
 2m 1
 
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Mo Mm Mp

— 13  20 25 30 25 2.78

B 12  10 15 20 15 2.78

C 32 13 8 10 12 10 0.444

D 34 13 10 10 10 10 0

E 24 12, 32 10 12 14 12 0.444

F 45 34, 24 5 5 5 5 0

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Benefits:
i. It helps to improve communication and
understanding.
ii. It helps in cost control and cost savings.
iii. It depicts interrelationship in ork flo .
iv. It identifies those ork activities hich are
vital to completing the project on time.
v. Needs for labor and resources can be
determined in advance.
vi. It can determine the duration of the project
systematically.
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vii. It can be computerized
viii. It helps to avoid duplications and omissions.
ix. It helps to monitor the progress of the
project effectively.
x. It allo s alternative simulations.

Dra backs:
1. Costly and time consuming.
2. Poor time estimates.
3. Bias to use pessimistic time estimates.
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