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Forecasting Techniques For Manpower Planning

The document discusses various qualitative and quantitative techniques for forecasting demand and supply of manpower, including nominal group technique, Delphi technique, replacement planning, managerial judgment, work study, regression analysis, and ratio analysis. It also covers methods for analyzing internal supply factors like wastage, stability index, and Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between jobs. The goal is to match forecasted labor requirements with available workforce.

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3K views16 pages

Forecasting Techniques For Manpower Planning

The document discusses various qualitative and quantitative techniques for forecasting demand and supply of manpower, including nominal group technique, Delphi technique, replacement planning, managerial judgment, work study, regression analysis, and ratio analysis. It also covers methods for analyzing internal supply factors like wastage, stability index, and Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between jobs. The goal is to match forecasted labor requirements with available workforce.

Uploaded by

dimpleriya
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Forecasting techniques for manpower

planning

Presented by:
Dimple
MBA-HR
3rd Sem
HR Forecasting requirements

Match requirements (demand) & availabilities


(supply), one of the main problems faced by
an organization
Forecasting Demand
Methods of Forecasting

1. Qualitative
2. Quantitative
Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
1. Nominal Group
Group of 4-5 people present their views regarding
labour forecasts  all written down  group
discusses the information presented  a final ballot
is taken to determine its judgment.
2. Delphi Technique
A facilitator solicits and collates written, expert
opinions on labour forecasts  a summary of the
information is developed and distributed to the
experts, who then submit revised forecasts. (Experts
only communicate through the facilitator.)
3. Replacement Planning
Based on charting techniques, which identify current
job incumbents and relevant information about each
of them. Typically includes a brief assessment of
performance and potential, age, length of time in
current position, and overall length of service.
Quantitative Forecasting Techniques

1. Managerial Judgment
Managers Sit together, discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future
demand for labor,
Also involve “Bottom Up Approach” or “top Down Approach”

2. Work Study Technique

Used where it is possible to apply work force measurement to know


how long operation should take and the amount of labor required
it involves work load analysis and work force analysis
 Work load analysis
It is a method that uses information about the actual
content of work based on a job analysis of work. It use
the ratios to determine HR requirement, Both the no.
of employees and kind of employees required to
achieve the organization goals are identified

 Work Force Analysis


Through this analysis one can calculate the labor
turnover rate, absenteeism rate etc.
3.Statistical Techniques
 Regression Analysis
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using
relevant variables, such as sales.
 Ratio Analysis
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected by
isolating trend, seasonal, and cyclical effects.
 Economic Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using a
specified form of the production function.
Example of demand forecasts
L&T company

follows “bottom up approach”


and “ work study technique”
Process begins During November of every
year
 M&M company
follows top down approach
SUPPLY FORECASTING
 Internal Supply Forecasting

 Wastage – the out-movement from the organization caused by


voluntary resignation, death or retirement.
 Internal movement resulting from transfers and promotion.

 External Supply Forecasting

 Recruitment
Analysis of Wastage

Labor turnover index which expresses wastage as a percentage of


staff in position, i.e.:

Manpower leaving in a year


Annual Manpower Wastage = ––––––––––––––––––––––––––  100
Average manpower in position

It takes no cognizance of the characteristics of manpower


crucial among them being the length of service and skill.
Also, it does not provide any meaningful indication for
manpower planning.
Stability Index

It measures the complement of wastage rate (i.e.,


rate of retention) as: 

Manpower with one or more year service at time t


-------------------------------------------------------------------  100
Manpower in position at time t – 1

An indicator of the proportion of staff who have


been with the organization for a longer period and
therefore reveals important information on the extent
to which labour turnover is a problem specific to
staff with shorter periods of service.
Census Method

A snapshot of the total situation is taken at a particular


point of time or over a short period of time and data on
leavers with completed length of service is obtained.
Then the proportion of manpower joining at a given
point of time who will survive to a specified length of
service is estimated.
Analysis of Internal Movements
Internal movements are of two types:
Vertical : promotion or demotion.
Horizontal : transfers.

Markov Chain Model


Estimation of transition probabilities relevant to each
vertical and horizontal movement.
Shows the percentage (and actual number) of
employees who remain in each job from one year to
the next, thus keeping track of the pattern of employee
movements through various jobs. Thus this analysis
results in a composite matrix of supply.
Reference:
Human Resource Management, K Awasthappa
Human Resource Management, T.N. Chhabra
http://www.astd.com
http://www.thiagi.com

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