Forecasted Volume Sold Direct +0% Volume Sold Direct +1% Volume Sold Direct +2% Volume Sold Direct +3%
Forecasted Volume Sold Direct +0% Volume Sold Direct +1% Volume Sold Direct +2% Volume Sold Direct +3%
Forecasted Volume Sold Direct +0% Volume Sold Direct +1% Volume Sold Direct +2% Volume Sold Direct +3%
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Figure 2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
6.41% 6.09% 5.78% 5.49% 5.22% 4.96% 4.71% 4.47%
2681 2529 2385 2249 2119 1995 1878 1767
7.31% 6.94% 6.60% 6.27% 5.95% 5.66% 5.37% 5.11%
3107.75 2934.86 2770.62 2614.59 2466.36 2325.54 2191.76 2064.67
8.21% 7.80% 7.41% 7.04% 6.69% 6.35% 6.04% 5.74%
3534.63 3340.4 3155.88 2980.59 2814.06 2655.85 2505.56 2362.78
9.12% 8.66% 8.23% 7.82% 7.42% 7.05% 6.70% 6.37%
3961.51 3745.94 3541.14 3346.58 3161.75 2986.17 2819.36 2660.89
ure 2
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Profit: Direct sales - No Ch -0.7 -9.24 9.82 12.92 15.68 14.69 13.98
Increase 1% -2.7 -5.09 14.72 17.87 20.62 19.92 19.58
Increase 2% -4.7 -0.94 19.62 22.83 25.56 25.16 25.17
Increase 3% -6.7 3.21 24.52 27.78 30.5 30.39 30.77
35
30
25
20
15 Profit: D
Increase
10
Increase
5 Increase
-5 9 0 91 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 97 98 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5
19 1 9 19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 20 20 2 0 20 2 0 20
-10
-15
Figure 3
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
11.81 9.68 7.57 5.52 3.51 1.55 -0.38 -2.28 -4.15
17.22 14.9 12.63 10.42 8.26 6.16 4.11 2.1 0.13
22.62 20.13 17.68 15.32 13.02 10.78 8.6 6.48 4.4
28.03 25.35 22.74 20.21 17.77 15.4 13.09 10.86 8.68
2 03 004 0 05
20 2 2
Direct Sales IRR Sensitivity Analysis
Assumptions Number
Forecasted Market share increase 0%
Gross margin 53%
Increased % time savings 0%
Tax Rate-italian profits 47%
Tax Rate-For Glaxo Holdings 29%
Glaxo Holdings, internal charge for c 16%
Licensee fee 4%
Figure 4